The Gulf States Just Voted on American Power
Sid Shniad
The Gulf States Just Voted on American Power
Saudi Arabia and Kuwait did not just deny Trump airspace. They signaled something far bigger: the states closest to the war are beginning to hedge against the United States itself
Prof Robert Pape
For two months, the Iran war has been discussed mainly in military terms: strikes, missiles, escorts, retaliation.
But what happened this week was political.
And it may prove far more important.
According to multiple reports, Saudi Arabia blocked U.S. access to Prince Sultan Airbase and denied use of its airspace for Operation Freedom, the Trump administration’s attempt to force oil shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Kuwait reportedly denied access as well.
The US operation paused within roughly 36 hours.
This is not a small diplomatic disagreement. It is a structural warning sign.
The United States was not blocked primarily by Iran.
It was blocked by the states America was supposedly defending.
That Changes the Meaning of the War
For decades, the foundation of U.S. power in the Gulf rested on a simple bargain: America would protect the regional order, and Gulf monarchies would align strategically with Washington.
That bargain weakens the moment local states begin concluding that U.S. escalation may endanger them more than protect them.
That is what we are now seeing.
The shift began when Iran struck energy-linked infrastructure near the UAE pipeline system connected to Fujairah — the last major bypass allowing Gulf oil exports to avoid the Strait of Hormuz. That route can move roughly 1.5 to 1.8 million barrels per day outside waters Iran can directly threaten. (See my previous post to Escalation Trap).
The message was unmistakable: There is no longer a safe alternative to Hormuz.
Once that became clear, Gulf states faced a new calculation. Supporting expanded U.S. military operations no longer simply risked angering Iran. It risked placing their own economies, infrastructure, and regime stability directly inside the escalation zone.
Under those conditions, survival logic begins to overpower alliance logic. Put differently, states will abandon balancing strategies when these increase the danger to their survival.
That is exactly what appears to have happened.
This is how great-power influence weakens in the real world. Not through speeches. Not through symbolism. Through allies quietly recalculating risk.
If regional partners believed the United States could quickly restore control, they would be facilitating escalation.
Instead, key states closest to the conflict are limiting participation.
That is the real referendum on power.
The implications extend well beyond the Gulf
Once allies begin hedging, the strategic costs compound rapidly. Military operations become harder. Credibility weakens. Rivals gain leverage. Neutral states reposition themselves. And every future escalation decision becomes more politically expensive than the last.
That does not mean the United States is weak.
It means conventional military superiority alone is no longer producing reliable political control.
There is a difference. And wars become dangerous when great powers discover that difference in real time.
The next question is whether this becomes temporary hedging—or the beginning of a broader Gulf realignment away from Washington.
And the question after that is whether the US accepts declining power.
These depend on what happens next in Hormuz, oil markets, and U.S. escalation decisions over the coming days.
I’ll be tracking those indicators closely.
Next Live Briefing
Live briefing: Sunday, May 10
Time: 4pm CT / 5pm ET
Access: Paid subscribers receive the link 15 minutes before we begin and automatically the full video recording of every live briefing to watch on their schedule
This week’s briefing will go beyond the headlines—focusing on why the nuclear issue won’t go away, and this means for the trajectory over the next 30–60 days as the Iran war evolves.
If you want to understand where this is actually going—not where people assume it’s going—this is where I’ll lay it out clearly.
—Robert Pape