2015 Fall League Season Preview
Nicholas Scott
Before we get
to the preview, I thought I’d take a moment and look back at Spring League’s
predictions…
Team Alec
Nick’s prediction: 5-3
Actual: 3-5
Everything that could go wrong for Team Alec did go wrong. Alec never reached full health, Amy broke her leg in 19 different places, Gabe was flaky because of work, Jud spent most the season in Dubai/America, and Tokyo Dave, the most overpriced player in league (he won an award, look it up) spent most of the season in Japan/Taiwan, preferring to chase skirts over chasing plastic. Geoff was a huge constant for this team, and Travis made a lot plays downfield, but the absences were too much of a blow. Verdict: zhǐlǎohǔ.
Team Curtis
Nick’s prediction: 5-3
Actual: 4-4
Feast. Famine. Feast. Famine. Team Curtis beat Taiwan Dave’s juggernaut (the only team to do so), but also got blown out by Team Alec (the weakest team in the league). With Larson and Evan riding the attendance seesaw, this team was capable of winning it all, but it’s hard building sweat equity with a different squad every Monday. Verdict: live by the sword, die by the sword.
Team Aussie Dave
Nick’s prediction: 4-4
Actual: 3-5
Team Aussie Dave had a hot start (going 2-1), but fell apart in the second half of the season (1-3). To his team’s credit, all three of his final losses were by a combined 6 points, which put his pythagorean win expectation much closer to 5 wins than his actual 3. Look for this team to regress to the mean next league and pull out some close victories in the closing minutes. Verdict: Bill Barnwell.
Team Taiwan Dave
Nick’s prediction: 4-4
Actual: 7-1
The prediction machine not only had a meltdown, it disassembled itself, punched itself in the groin, and poured boiling hot oil all over its processor. Team Taiwan Dave put together a dominant season thanks to 1. lucking out on unknown women late in the draft 2. attendance consistency, and 3. having four top players who could generate offense. Verdict: the only Spring League team with a winning record.
Team Ros/Roz
Nick’s prediction: 2-6
Actual: 3-5
Another solid hit for the old prediction machine. There were some weapons on Team Ros/Roz (ladies, Dax, Tall Kevin, Shawn) but they couldn’t stay on the field enough to do a consistent amount of damage. Force feeding the Dax machine is a viable league strategy, but smart captains know how to take it away and force the disc in other directions. Verdict: undefeated versus Team Aussie Dave! What? How?
2015 Fall League Season Preview
Team Aussie Dave
Starting Seven: Larson, Forrest, Gabe, Aussie Dave, Sepp, Pei, Wenya
Bench: Bob, Christian, Veronique, Jarred Cinnaswirl, Jerry, Alan Gao, Florence , Samantha Yang, Peter Liu
Sleepers: Bob, Wenya, anyone named Cinnaswirl
Overview: This team’s attendance alert is hovering between orange and red, with the needle ready to jump at a moment’s notice. That’s a fearsome front seven, but weigh in Larson’s projected attendance (50%) and Gabe’s historical attendance (50%), and this team looks about as half as good as it should be. This team can still compete if it’s missing a Larson or a Gabe, but take away both and this team’s offense is going to struggle to move the disc.
Strengths: If Sepp is on this team (unverified), this team will have one of best group of ladies in league. Sepp and Wenya are both solid handlers, and Pei is developing into a good defender as well as a viable deep threat. If ladies handle, this allows Aussie Dave and Larson to push upfield where they belong, which will help create mismatches in the defensive secondary.
Weaknesses: Attendance (duh), but also the bench. Bob came out of nowhere to have a great showing at the Shanghai hat, and Christian is a reliable handler, but if Larson and Gabe aren’t there, these guys will get promoted to starters. V is solid whether she starts or comes of the bench, but Aussie Dave will need his sleepers to step up when attendance runs thin.
Prediction: 3-5
Team Curtis
Starting Seven: Sam, Tokyo Dave, Curtis, Seven, Olivia Ju, Sarah J, Chan
Bench: Joe Wilson, King, Tingting, Kevin Patrick, Kevin Song, Jeff Chen, Leslie, Beaker, Daniel, Meraj
Sleepers: Olivia Ju?, Chan?, Kevin Song
Overview: It’s hard to look at Team Curtis and see anything other than Sam jacking deep shots to Tokyo Dave, the most overpriced player in league (he won an award, look it up). But take one of these players out of the equation and Team Curtis looks much more vulnerable. Is Curtis at the point where he can direct an offense? If Joe Wilson and Seven drop back to handle, who’s Sam going to huck it to? King? Chan? Curtis? Kevin Song? This team has a nice amount of talent, but they’ll need to find an alternate mode of attack when Tokyo Dave isn’t an option.
Strengths: Hucks. Being nice. Not necessarily in in that order.
Weaknesses: I know Leslie and Sarah J, but I don’t know the rest of Team Curtis’s ladies. Maybe Olivia Ju and Chan will turn out to be capable role players, but they’ll be tested early, especially in Game 1 against Aussie Dave’s Wenya, Pei, and Sepp. If more experienced ladies can poach the lanes, things will get dicey in the middle of the field, which will give Sam and Curtis even more of an incentive to jack the deep ball.
Prediction: 4-4
Team Luke
Starting Seven: Nick, Geoff, Luke, Taomy, Dani, Taytay, Yohanna
Bench: Nicholas Lin, Suraj, Yale, Nina, Andrew Lee, Calvin Lu, WhyX, Grace, Bri
Sleepers: Nicholas Lin, Bri
Overview: This team has a little bit of everything. Speed, height, handlers, good women, incoming talent, upcoming talent, newbies, and complete unknowns. This team also has a lot of versatility, being as comfortable with the deep game as they are with crashing through the middle of a cup. Look for Canadian import Nicholas Lin to make a splash once he arrives in October, and look for Bri to be in the running for rookie of the year (lots of predraft buzz).
Strengths: Consistency. Learning a valuable lesson from Taiwan Dave’s 7-1 finish, Team Luke put a premium on attendance in the draft. The only question mark is Dani, but the rest of the starting 7 should be a mainstay week after week.
Weaknesses: With this team having the past two Mike Narodovich Award for Excellence winners (Nick and Taytay), look for a lot of Monday night anger-management sessions. Firecracker Yale is also on this team, the only man to ever engage in mortal combat over the sanctity of his field space. Make calls at your own risk...
Prediction: 5-3
Team Owen
Starting Seven: JC, LJ, Owen, Martin, Rossi, Minmin, 包天添?
Bench: Bean Jam, Andrew Walker, Eliot, Eric Yu, Jessie (Female), Jinyi Yang, Joseph Hu, Pan, Raymond Zhou, Shi Wei
Sleepers: Bean Jam, 包天添?, LJ’s hucks
Overview: No one liked when Owen went after players in the draft because 1. only Owen seemed to know who these players were, and 2. after Owen bought these players, he chuckled to himself as he explained how much of a steal they were. Eventually other captains waited until Owen started bidding and then overbid him in an attempt to steal his sleepers.
Strengths: If Owen’s steady draft day chuckles are any indication, his bench should be the deepest in the league. Bean Jam (aka Gabriel aka Chinese Gabe aka Bianjiang aka Def Leppard) was talked up as a possible starter, and the rest of Owen’s young, unknown talent was talked up as well. Owen and LJ have already made the jump to starter-level talent, but if his sleepers can do the same, Owen’s young team will be a force to contend with.
Weaknesses: “Old age and treachery will always overcome youth and inexperience.” Yes, they may be young and athletic, but does Owen have the knowledge of the game to know what to do against a 4-person cup? Against a force-middle mark? Against a 6-person bear trap? This team will have its moments, but they’ll struggle more often than not.
Prediction: 3-5
Team Sacha
Starting Seven: Evan Jenkins, Andrew Stoker, Sacha, Jud, Guo Xing, Irene, Eva
Bench: Josh Nantz, Ben Harris, Catherine, Daisy Hong, Etienne, Igor, Jack Chen, Robert O, Ross Gortney, Will Tseung
Sleepers: Andrew Stoker
Overview: Speaking of old age (snare, snare, hi hat), Team Sacha has the actual deepest bench in league. Evan Jenkins usually defines the league’s high variance team, but Sacha cushioned the blow by drafting an army of league regulars to even out Evan’s eventual absences. Andrew Stoker is also an unknown quantity, but he’s rumored to be a starter-level talent.
Strengths: Well, the deepest bench in league is a strength, with tall athletes like Ben, Etienne, Josh, and Robert flying off the bench. Team Sacha also has a bunch of capable ladies, with Eva, Daisy, Xing, and Irene all able to contribute in the lanes. Throw in league veterans like Jack and Will and Sacha has a lot of chess pieces to direct around the board.
Weaknesses: While the bench is deep, how many players on Team Sacha can—to borrow a basketball metaphor—“create their own shot.” If Evan isn’t around to force high-release backhand rollers (and Evan loves forcing high-release backhand rollers), then who is going to make something happen on an 8-count? Sacha drafted Andrew Stoker to be that guy, but if he’s not up to it, who’s going to huck to Nantz and Xing and Robert and Ben? This is weird—parallel universe weird—but can Jud and Young Jud combine their powers and rain down a flurry of hucks the likes of which the world has never seen? It's not impossible, but I’ll have to see it before I believe it.
Prediction: 3-5
Team Taiwan Dave
Starting Seven: Dax, Sam Wilson, Taiwan Dave, TK (Tall Kevin), Bling, Vita, Maisy
Bench: Alec (but not that Alec), Cara Zhu, Franko, Lazarus, Peter, Stephan Fuchs, William Tan, 老妖, 小龙
Sleepers: Franko, William Tan
Overview: Taiwan Dave has a lot to prove going 7-1 in route to the Spring League Championship, but can he repeat as champion? He followed his Spring League draft formula in that he 1. drafted players with consistent attendance, and 2. paid a premium for top-level talent who can create their own shot (Dax, Sam Wilson). Taiwan Dave lucked out on some solid ladies late in the Spring League draft, but this time he refused to gamble on late round fliers, instead splashing out cash for big names like Bling, Vita, and Maisy.
Strengths: The starting line-up is one of the best in league. Taiwan Dave, Dax, and Sam can throw from anywhere on the field, and TK is developing into a real weapon if a team knows how to use him. Team Taiwan Dave’s women are also athletic, with Bling and Vita able to get D’s on 90% of the ladies in league.
Weaknesses: But after the first seven, things get murky. Although Franko and William Tan are dangerous, there are too many question marks deep in the bench. Another serious issue for this team is player management. Will Taiwan Dave have the balls to sit Dax and Sam in favor of younger players if it means a loss? Will Taiwan Dave get other players involved when he knows all Dax and Sam want to do is jack it to TK? It’s easy calling subs when you have a lead, but let’s see what Taiwan Dave does when the game’s on the line. I predict Dax and Sam stay on the field.
Prediction: 6-2
*The opinions expressed in the above post represent one individual’s viewpoint and are in no way, shape, or form endorsed by SUPA. Also, because I rarely guard women (I try as often as I can), my perspective on the women’s side of the game is not as informed as I would like. If any women would like to discuss potty training, grooming, or puppy-care management, please contact daxhaas...@gmail.com.