I crunched some more numbers. I wanted insight into what size of riders is more reflective of a permanent vs a calendared event. This is my attempt at capturing the spirit of one of Rob's questions. I included my methodology below and am open to crunching numbers differently if people have better ideas and if I have the data. I also have inline responses to some other specific questions at the end.
| Perm finishers | | Calendared event finishers |
| Finishers | Total # events | Total normalized to 10,000 | | Finishers | Total # events | Total normalized to 10,000 |
| 0 | 46 | 87 | | 0 | 145 | 1714 |
| 1 | 3711 | 7083 | | 1 | 67 | 956 |
| 2 | 1063 | 2029 | | 2 | 70 | 999 |
| 3 | 246 | 470 | | 3 | 52 | 742 |
| 4 | 127 | 242 | | 4 | 61 | 870 |
| 5 | 48 | 92 | | 5 | 63 | 899 |
| 6 | 16 | 31 | | 6 | 45 | 642 |
| 7 | 12 | 23 | | 7 | 46 | 656 |
| 8 | 7 | 13 | | 8 | 22 | 314 |
| 9 | 4 | 8 | | 9 | 21 | 300 |
| 10 | 2 | 4 | | 10 | 18 | 257 |
| 11 | 1 | 2 | | 11 | 19 | 271 |
| 12 | 2 | 4 | | 12 | 22 | 314 |
| 13+ | 0 | 0 | | 13+ | 195 | 2782 |
Methodology:
- It's a bit painful to incorporate DNS information. IMO it would be interesting to include and it would have a visible effect on these results. I don't think that DNS data is critical to get the big picture.
- I threw out events with 0 finishers since I think it adds noise to the rides that are actually happening (and again, it's a heuristic since per point [1] this doesn't incorporate DNS data), and anecdotally I question how consistently/diligently perm owners throughout RUSA submit results for 0-finisher perms, even if that's the correct process. Whereas for calendared events, the event entry hangs around begging to be submitted until an official processes it (e.g. by submitting results for 0 starters). For reference, there were 46 perms recorded with 0 finishers and 145 calendared events recorded with 0 finishers. Per the normalization in [3], this would correspond to 87 perms and 1714 calendared events had there been 10,000 instances of each instead of 5,285 perms and 846 calendared events.
- Since there were vastly more perms run than calendared events, I added normalized columns to reflect "What would the data look like if there were 10,000 perms and 10,000 calendared events?" Throwing out the instances with 0 finishers, I scaled the perms by a factor of 10,000/5,239 and the calendared events by 10,000/701.
- No perm had 13+ finishers, so I aggregated calendared events with 13+ finishers into a single pile.
- Time period corresponds to the same period in 2019 before the perms program suspension. This mostly discards any data we'd otherwise have for December, notably a non-ACP-season month. I think this data still paints the big picture.
My takeaways:
- At least in the context of RUSA as a whole, 1-2 riders "looks like" a permanent and 3+ riders "looks like" a calendared event.
- SFR runs really large events relative to other RUSA regions. Big shock, I know!
Some inline responses to questions earlier in the thread:
This could easily be the topic of a much longer essay than I've provided, and the answer will be heavily colored by what things the author values in RUSA and randonneuring. There's going to be a diverse Venn diagram of things that I value vs what other people value in the context of what solo rides can contribute to RUSA and randonneuring. My hope would be that SFR and other regions would promote the sport in ways that are inclusive of the diverse things that people value in RUSA and randonneuring.
I have a few thoughts about the question itself, and I'll also provide direct responses from my own perspective. As Greg puts it, "I don't seem to remember being promised companionship on any RUSA or ACP brevet." Actually I thought this ship had sailed in the 1920 holy wars between allure libre and audax (spoiler: ACP went with allure libre). Literally at the top of the page when you load
rusa.org is: "Randonneuring is long-distance unsupported endurance cycling. This style of riding is non-competitive in nature, and self-sufficiency is paramount." While the amount of support and willingness to ride in groups I've seen during brevets is welcome, it's not core to how I see randonneuring. Clearly this is valued very highly by many people, but I would caution against universally saying "this is what randonneuring
is." Camaraderie is also a core value listed in the
rusa.org introduction, and I would suggest there is often plenty of room for that to play out opportunistically even during an allure libre event where people may well ride solo hours on end in practice.
I have already shared my thoughts on the merits of the RUSA awards program. To the extent that (1) there are not calendared opportunities for riders to fulfill some of these goals, or (2) other riders do not share the same goals, solo rides are there to fill the gap. Chasing after RUSA awards keeps riders interested participants in RUSA. It encourages consistency and dedication. And even if I personally am riding a solo populaire in pursuit of a P-12, I feel more connected to people in other parts of the country who are pursuing the same goal, and there is a bond there. Supportive communities form around awards, and I've enjoyed following along and sharing pats on the back in the K-Hounds Facebook group as several riders achieved an incredible milestone this year. Their excitement is contagious. I love seeing the group ride photos when people stop to celebrate someone's 10,000th km. Seeing people pursue their goals encourages me to follow suit. I wonder how many K-Hounds we'd have seen in 2019 if one were to exclude all the solo rides. I wonder how many K-Hounds there will be in 2020. I wonder if we can find ways to better support people aiming for K-Hound without a perms program.
Shout-out to my friends in Seattle who stepped up to make sure a calendared 1000k would materialize once I started asking if I should make plans around it. If I were the only registrant, they would still have made it happen and I would still have been overjoyed to ride it. Why did I care so much about that 1000k? I wanted it for a couple of awards I was aiming for. And what was the result? I got more fulfillment from RUSA, and I got to interact with a ton of amazing SIR folks. I even stuck around to participate in their dart pop the following week and had a great time hanging out with them. Lots of camaraderie there, and it would have been the same effect if I had ridden that 1000k solo. (Though I *also* had a blast riding with the handful of folks on the 1000k, and I've remained in close contact with a few of them.)
Most of the SR600's I've done have been solo. I've done my best to bring in other people for those and even jump in when I see another group forming. With more people those have been all the more enjoyable. When I can't find other people to join in, it's still a fulfilling experience. Even those solo rides can advance randonneuring. Sophie Matter reached out to me after receiving 2019 results from the US, and remarked: "In France, only 1 SR600 is open in the winter, but nobody took up such a challenge yet. I hope your example will inspire other riders." I would love to shift people's perception of SR600 events from once-in-a-lifetime/once-in-a-R10000 to something more approachable. This is a fantastic ride format and I see considerable opportunity for it to grow. For the time being I'm glad I'm still able to enjoy it when there aren't other people around who want to join in. By continuing to ride them solo I hope it at least gives the format more exposure, helps it to seem more accessible, and at least gets people thinking about whether maybe it's something they'd like to experience.
I have done many solo permanent populaires in 2019. Some people do not consider this "randonneuring". Okay. Many of these connected me to other rando regions (namely SFR and Davis), and absolutely made the difference in regularly getting me to come out to calendared brevets (read: RUSA community) in the absence of a car or early morning public transit availability. Being able to work toward a mondial and a galaxy as part of my commutes was a decisive factor in deciding to stick with randonneuring vs finding some other goals to pursue. Most of my other solo perm pops were on a climby route that I created that I knew I would have fun doing over and over and that I could carve out time before work to ride. I'd love if I had time to ride an even longer route before work, but unfortunately the combination of work and sleep prohibit that. This again was something that kept me engaged with RUSA and randonneuring. Without the option of RUSA credit, I've been replacing these solo rides with other goals that have nothing to do with RUSA. I imagine that the loss of solo rides would similarly chip away at other people's engagement with RUSA.
Really great to hear this. Thank you very much! I'm happy to look into building new routes, gauging interest, looking into scheduling, as much or as little as you want. I hope that NorCal ends up with a useful offering of populaires for any P-12 seekers in the area.
Metin, that's quite interesting and rings true as a likely reason for the restriction. I sent a proposal to the Board on Friday asking if they're open to lifting the restriction when at least one of the events is sanctioned solely by RUSA. There's clear potential here for further incentivizing volunteering while giving riders additional avenues to pursue their goals in the absence of permanents. I'll provide an update if I hear back.
I've received a lot of (mostly) thoughtful feedback privately and in person. Kudos and thank you to the people who are following along.
Thanks,
Charlie