Epic Weather reliability?

[Rob Hawks]

In using this app to obtain a forecast for this weekend, the app claims a 0% chance of rain through the weekend. This of course is not matched by any other forecast service. It seems only that aspect of the output from Epic Weather is suspect. Wind prediction, temps, etc. all seem believable.

Does anyone have any insight on just what might be at work with this app? Has it become less reliable since the loss of Dark Sky?

rob

[Mike Hrast]

I’m not sure about the Epic Ride Rain model as both Weather Underground and Weather Bug call for showers Saturday with the possibility of Thunderstorms 

Sent from my iPhone

On Mar 27, 2024, at 7:52 AM, Rob Hawks <rob....@gmail.com> wrote:



In using this app to obtain a forecast for this weekend, the app claims a 0% chance of rain through the weekend. This of course is not matched by any other forecast service. It seems only that aspect of the output from Epic Weather is suspect. Wind prediction, temps, etc. all seem believable.

Does anyone have any insight on just what might be at work with this app? Has it become less reliable since the loss of Dark Sky?

rob

--
--
This message is from the San Francisco Randonneurs list at sfra...@googlegroups.com
Search the archives at http://groups.google.com/group/sfrandon
For SFR's schedule and general information, visit http://sfrandonneurs.org/
To unsubscribe, email sfrandon+u...@googlegroups.com
---
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "San Francisco Randonneurs" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to sfrandon+u...@googlegroups.com.
To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/sfrandon/CA%2BV%2BKA1vXoggkP7i%3DTWWp7g9J7TnrdQ_HRiMSXHRHvaXnVL-_g%40mail.gmail.com.

[Mike Hrast]

Then there is the Mike’s ride forecast: if I ride it will rain; if I don’t it won’t rain

Sent from my iPhone

On Mar 27, 2024, at 8:17 AM, Mike Hrast <mike....@gmail.com> wrote:

I’m not sure about the Epic Ride Rain model as both Weather Underground and Weather Bug call for showers Saturday with the possibility of Thunderstorms 

[Drew Levitt]

Epic Ride Weather uses forecasts from Apple Weather (at least the iOS version does). Through iOS version 15, Apple’s Weather app used Weather Channel data, but now they seem to roll their own, and their forecasts often differ substantially from other meteorologists’. Clicking the attribution link at the bottom of an Epic Ride Weather forecast brings you to this page, which suggests that Apple Weather is just using National Weather Service data for its forecasts: 

https://developer.apple.com/weatherkit/data-source-attribution/

I recently came across this website, which compares various weather services and reports ex post facto on their average accuracy for your specific area: 

https://www.forecastadvisor.com/ For me, in north Oakland, The Weather Channel was most accurate last month (92%); by comparison, National Weather Service was 78% accurate. That’s appreciably worse, in my opinion. So it would be nice if Epic Ride Weather let you choose among several weather data sources… but this option is not available at present. 

I remember hearing a few years ago that US weather forecasting in general is now quite a bit worse than European weather forecasting, because of a national-level failure to continue investing in developing modern meteorological models. Can’t confirm (I’m not a meteorologist) but I mean, that sounds very plausible :(

Drew

Drew Levitt

drew....@gmail.com

+1 775 553 8488

Pronouns: he/him/his

--

[JinUk Shin]

I've been using a combination of Epic Ride Weather, Randoplan, and watching this guy on Youtube - California Weather: Potent Storm Coming into view! (youtube.com)

The youtube guy goes through the European model, the GFS, and does a pretty good job of summarizing weather.  That has actually been the most helpful in watching the weather for me.  Unfortunately with the demise of Dark Sky, Epic Ride Weather hasn't been as good as its been in the past.  Randoplan is pretty good and built by Brian Feinberg 

To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/sfrandon/CAL0U6m9uK3P-o_-EnqowgXWWdfN1zgAy4CUENRjMoHSf1uhWEw%40mail.gmail.com.

[Rob Hawks]

Is Randoplan only available to FOBF?

rob

[Rob Hawks]

Thanks for the mention of Randoplan (https://www.randoplan.com/). That app offers your choice of source forecast. It looks like Epic Weather is not broken, but its source data AppleWeatherkit appears broken and it just barfs out 0% pop.

From one use of that app, my impression is that it is a lot nicer than Epic Weather, which isn't that bad really. The difference to me makes me wonder if SFR should drop its Epic Weather subscription and just make a donation to Randoplan.

rob

On Wed, Mar 27, 2024 at 8:31 AM Drew Levitt <drew....@gmail.com> wrote:

[Brian Feinberg]

To be fair, Apple WeatherKit doesn't _always_ show 0% probability of rain, but far more than is realistic. Sometimes I've seen it return forecasts with 0% probability of precipitation, and a text description that says, for example, "Drizzle", or "Light Rain".

I hate that Apple took something awesome like Dark Sky and turning into, well, what they turned it into.

Brian (working on rp while I get over the head cold that took me down in Texas)

[Sourav Das]

While the convenience and accessibility from mobile devices of the aforementioned apps is great, NOAA's weather forecast at https://www.weather.gov/ is pretty spot on and sometimes more accurate.

Sourav

To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/sfrandon/ed211a6b-17e9-43ae-9305-31969fc41cd8n%40googlegroups.com.

[Mike Sturgill]

I have never used Epic Weather, but have used RandoPlan for years. With Brian's addition of multiple weather sources, I've empirically found that using the "WeatherAPI" option yields, by far, the closest match to the actual conditions. I did a pre ride of a local 300k yesterday and compared all 5 options. They were widely divergent. Weather API was nearly spot on.

I would like to add a personal "Thank you" to Brian for bringing this app to us. I use it on all of the longer events I ride and I highly recommend it.

-Mike

To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/sfrandon/ed211a6b-17e9-43ae-9305-31969fc41cd8n%40googlegroups.com.

[Megan Arnold]

probably not helpful for planning your ride, but cool to look at - a wind map for the contiguous United States

- Megan

art | writing | bookshop*

* Disclosure: I am an affiliate of Bookshop.org and will earn a commission if you click through and make a purchase from the kid sister press shop.

---

From: sfra...@googlegroups.com <sfra...@googlegroups.com> on behalf of Brian Feinberg <alpha...@gmail.com>
Sent: Wednesday, March 27, 2024 10:10 AM
To: San Francisco Randonneurs <sfra...@googlegroups.com>
Subject: Re: [SFRandon] Epic Weather reliability?

 

To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/sfrandon/ed211a6b-17e9-43ae-9305-31969fc41cd8n%40googlegroups.com.

[Jeff Bruchez]

Adding to the thread: I greatly like and really recommend Windy.com to folks. A premium account is $18/year and it supports an independent team who manages the very good service. I stumbled into this service via my Kite Aerial Photography hobby, but find it invaluable when planning day+ long bike adventures.

With premium you can load .gpx files on and estimate the weather across a ride really accurately. I've used it for planning 200k to 600k rides and found it invaluable to estimate the weather you encounter when riding from sea level (90F +70') to Yuba Pass ( 39F at +6500') on the Gold Rush Randonnee.

Best,

Jeffrey Bruchez

RUSA# 13661

Davis, CA

To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/sfrandon/CY8PR14MB6075787FB8C62140FEE69C42ED342%40CY8PR14MB6075.namprd14.prod.outlook.com.

[Brian Feinberg]

I’ve used the app and it was interesting. I wanted to integrate their data into randoplan but boy that would be $$$.

Also there’s windsock.com, which seems to provide, potentially, all sorts of data, but with a UI that to me is quite impenetrable.

     —— Brian

[Vlad]

This information has been exceptionally useful to me. I was wondering of any one has access to seasonal wind trends for different parts of the world. I am planning to go cycling in Norway this summer and South America ( Patagonia) in December / January / February. I was hoping to do some planning as to the best time to go ( wind wise) 

Any references? i.e. I was hoping to have a resource such as:  type in the month & country, and a typical wind map for a region would pop up. 

Thanks in advance. 

Vlad

Sent from tiny touchscreen gizmo, excuse any auto correct nonsense that slips in…

To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/sfrandon/CAHBH_Yt%2BrAB2P2f7ktF6%2BoL1GwsGh0aMGj%3D_BMzev0sTgyGOqg%40mail.gmail.com.