Modeling 2 ORs in the first set

[J C Lawrence]

If there are only two ORs in the first set, this is what it looks like
to go private before the PR/SR:


CompanyA CompanyB CompanyC CompanyD CompanyE
OR1.1




Stock price 71 71 71 55 55
Treasury 355 355 355 265 265
Terrain -40 -40 0 0 -40
Token -40 0 0 -40 0
Train -100 -100 -100 -100 -100
Loan 0 300 0 0 0
Loan interest 0 -30 0 0 0
Treasury 175 485 255 125 125
Stock price 55 51 55 43 43






I&T1..1




Bank fee
-153


Share buyback
-51
To player: 51
Loan repay
-100


Treasury
181








Buy CompanyC
-165
To player: 165
Gain treasury
255


Pay excess loan
0


Treasury
271








Buy CompanyA
-165
To player: 165
Gain treasury
175


Pay excess loan
0


Treasury
281








Buy CompanyD
-129
To player: 129
Gain treasury
125


Pay excess loan
0


Treasury
277








Buy CompanyD
-129
To player: 129
Gain treasury
125


Pay excess loan
0


Treasury
273






Player 639
Extra token fee
-100


Treasury
173








OR1.2




5x2T@$45ea (hold) 225


Trains
-240


Loan interest
-20


Treasury
138


Stock price
47








I&T1.2










Bank fee
-47


Share buyback
-47
To player: 47
Loan repay
-200


Treasury
-156
Contribution -134
Stock price
43






Player: 396



https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1bUfA9LhiSHqGtMyJ0SmqXv8_YE3DC9geFhc1xPEYyGg/edit?usp=sharing

\Which is awfully tight on cash there through the end with very little
wiggle room for terrain or tokens and costing another stock value as the
director covers the loans at the end, but it just barely works. But it
is also going full hog straight to private immediately. If instead the
player does nothing in OR1.1 and then only shrinks to a 2-share and does
all the take-overs in OR1.2 (the current pattern), they'll enter the
PR/SR over $100 richer -- which seems better as their wannabe-private is
still safe to go private in I&T2.1.

But the big gain seems to be the increased viability of player's ability
to more rapidly respond to good or bad events in the next PR/SR (not so
long to wait), as well as the increased viability of going into PR2/SR2
with perhaps two 2 share companies, or a 2-share (headed for private)
and a 5-share with a head-start on track and extra good tokens for being
a long-term public company.

If SR2 continues to feature two future brown trains being sold (figure
somewhere in the $150-$200 range?), then that's ~$1,600-$1.700 in total
cash in player hands, or ~$1,250-$1,450 after the trains are bought.
That's enough to float 7 companies if the cash is perfect, but 3-5 seems
more likely. Mostly it is somewhere over $2.000 in new capital in
company treasuries (1250*5/3).

Now the private company income is going to be down in OR2.1 as the
company is also down 1-2 gold 2+ trains. But with a train limit of 5, I
figure revenue of around $300 -- or enough for a green 3+ train, or ~3
new 3+ trains if the player declined to float new companies. That's a
rough guess of just under ten $250 trains being bought in OR2.1, leaving
6+ still on deck.

Seems reasonable so far.

Blue breaks somewhere in OR2.2? Which is roughly (in terms of OR count)
where it does now. And that puts brown near OR4.1 (as the new companies
come out) given the current train counts, which is a smidge earlier than
it tends to be now.

PR3 is really interesting with two red trains being sold...which will
run in ~5 ORs. Ouch.

Perhaps the future trains should be adjusted?

A proposal:

PR1: 2 blue trains
PR2: 1 blue train, 1 brown train (the blue will likely run in 2 ORs,
the brown in 3-4 ORs)
PR3: 1 brown train, 1 red train (the brown will likely run in ~3
ORs, the red in ~5 ORs).
PR4: 1 red train (likely run in ~3 ORs)

The other thing is that with so many more companies floating, the board
is going to get rather more crowded, and even more crowded as even more
station markers are going to be discarded (turned into blocking British
Rail markers). This could make constructing a good FLOOD run difficult
and possibly impossible.

What happens if nobody's public company is good enough to run a good FLOOD?

I don't want to do this, but I've also considered adding a British Rail
company with say 50 shares which starts in red phase at some fixed stock
private and runs whatever trains the government has been buying and
throwing away. It would be crap, but it would also be a safety valve.

And I really don't want to do that.

-- JCL