Celestial Hole In One?

[Mark Wagner]

When I was observing the Io shadow transit Tuesday night at Coe, seeing it so nicely line up with the Great Red Spot I wondered, has anyone seen a "hole in one" where a moon's shadow is actually situated inside the GRS?  Well, anyone?  I haven't.

So today I again wondered, and asked AI.  It turns out that it is not only possible, but predicted to next occur on April 21-22, 2026 at 07:17 UTC = late evening in CA!  Drivers, start your engines!

Let's just hope for cooperative skies.  This might be as good as a triple shadow transit (maybe?).

Hey, if you can get a single hole in one, how about a double?  Anyone figure out if/when?

[Rajah]

Very cool, let’s hope weather cooperates

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[Mitchell Koerner]

Apr 21-22 night has a near miss like we saw but doesn't look like a hole in 1.

I think AI got it wrong here.

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[Ted Hauter]

I have not.

I believe the plane of rotation puts the shadows always above the GRS. 

The GRS is very below the planet in actuality. 

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[Mark Wagner]

I wasn't really sure how reliable AI would be.  But it did say it is rare it occurs.

Again, anyone witness one?

[Mitchell Koerner]

From cloudynights topic 396554 it happened on Nov 14, 2012.

Here's a simulation of the date and time

It's not dead center but it sure is in the spot!

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[Mark Wagner]

Yeah, Ted's remark threw me a bit.  Io's shadow was on the opposite side of the SEB from the GRS.  But like our moon, Jupiter's too may just not remain precisely in the same exact orbit.  AI did mention a bit of variance but was not exacting.

Maybe someone with the right software (hint) would query AI for the last ten such occurances, and see how true AI is, and how far into the GRS a shadow can get.

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-- 
Mark

[Ted Hauter]

That's a good find there!

Check it out. It's lower than Australia by proportion. 

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[Ted Hauter]

Remember Jove ain't round.