Fw:转发: GSAM - Outlook 2012: Up Periscope

[陈沛]

January 3, 2012

Outlook 2012: Up Periscope   Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani Chief Investment Officer Brett Nelson Managing Director Neeti Bhalla Managing Director Leon Goldfeld Managing Director Jiming Ha Managing Director Maziar Minovi Managing Director Benoit Mercereau Vice President Matthew Weir Vice President   As we formulate our 2012 Outlook and finalize our investment recommendations for our clients, we are struck by the tremendous amount of uncertainty in the economic and investment outlook. Three and a half years have passed since the onset of the financial and economic crisis of 2008, yet for many investors, the storm feels as if it has barely diminished.   After all, we’ve witnessed a record $2.2 trillion of fiscal stimuli, including about $930 billion in the US, $420 billion in China, $320 billion in Japan, and $270 billion in Europe, as well as extensive and unconventional monetary policies – from zero-interest-rate policies to “quantitative easing” measures, which have increased the balance sheets of the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England by a total of $4.5 trillion. Yet global growth is still not on a certain and sustainable path. On the contrary, concerns about double-dip recessions and major policy mistakes abound.   Not surprisingly, many investors have battened down the hatches in 2008 and remained below deck in an attempt to stay clear of the turbulence. But we believe that in the midst of all this volatility and uncertainty, there lie not only safe harbors, but also attractive investment opportunities.   We are hearing a consistent line of questioning from our clients this year: Are we in for yet another year of ominous fiscal and financial developments in 2012? Will things finally start to improve? Or can we expect the situation to get even worse?   Recent media headlines have provided little in the way of comfort: “IMF Chief Warns Over 1930s-style Threats,” “Financial Markets in Greater Danger than 2008,” “Could America Turn Out Worse than Japan?” “The Eurozone’s Double Failure” and “Will China Break?” are reminiscent of those seen in the depths of the crisis.1   It is useful to examine and categorize these anxieties, so they may be better understood and addressed. Current concerns fall into two categories: cyclical concerns that focus on near-term economic growth prospects and structural concerns that focus on long-term sustainability of existing political or economic frameworks in various countries.   Cyclical concerns cover a broad spectrum of issues; they range from a “lost decade of growth” in the US as a result of the financial crisis of 2008, to a deep recession in the Eurozone as a result of austerity measures, to dimming prospects for Japan after the recent triple whammy of earthquake, tsunami and nuclear accident. They also include worries about a hard landing in China as a result of deterioration in the real estate sector and slower growth in its export-destination countries.   Structural concerns include the long-term fiscal profile of the US in the face of political gridlock, the very survival of the Eurozone as a monetary union in the absence of real fiscal and political union, and the ability of China to rebalance an investment-led and exportled economy to a more diversified consumer-oriented economy.   In the face of such cyclical and structural headwinds, how should our clients formulate an investment strategy for 2012? Should they sit on the sidelines and avoid the storm or should they trade more actively to try to catch the big waves?   Here we are reminded of a Sunday Night Insight we published in March 2009 where we quoted Seth Klarman of The Baupost Group: “The ability to remain an investor (and not become a day-trader or a bystander) confers an almost unprecedented advantage in this environment.” The answer to this question, in other words, is neither: don’t step up your trading activity because of the market choppiness, but don’t exit the market altogether, either. Rather, adopt a long-term investment perspective and accept that investing involves making rational and enduring decisions at times of profound uncertainty.   It is with this fundamental premise in mind that we put forth our 2012 investment outlook. In this report, we examine in detail the cyclical and structural concerns for the major countries and regions of the world, and evaluate the most likely outcome of each one. We then provide a more detailed analysis of our economic and investment outlook for 2012. However, before we proceed, we think it is important to reiterate two key pillars of our tactical asset allocation investment philosophy (See Exhibit 1).     First, history is a useful guide. When we examine these cyclical and structural issues, we look at them through a historical lens and make assumptions based on how similar issues played out in the past. For example, given that European policymakers have approached the sovereign debt crisis incrementally over the last two years, we can assume that they will continue with incremental policy responses throughout 2012.   Second, diversification is key. We have typically ascribed a 60–75% probability to our central case forecast scenarios. At times of heightened uncertainty, that probability diminishes; this year, with non-negligible risks of economic or financial unraveling across some countries and/or regions of the world, the probability of our US central case is down significantly, to 55% (the only recent year lower than that was 2008, at 50%). This makes effective diversification even more important – a portfolio must be constructed to withstand the more probable short- and intermediate-term downdrafts, yet still profit from the long-term upswings (which, even with our revised probabilities, remain more likely to occur).     To continue reading, please click here.     Sources: Investment Strategy Group, Datastream, Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, The Wall Street Journal.   1 “IMF Chief Warns Over 1930s-Style Threats.” The Financial Times, December 15, 2011; “Financial Markets in Greater Danger than 2008 – BoE’s Fisher.” Reuters, December 19, 2011; Mohammed El-Erian. “Could America Turn Out Worse than Japan?” Reuters, October 31, 2011; Martin Feldstein. “The Euro-Zone’s Double Failure.” The Wall Street Journal, December 15, 2011; Paul Krugman. “Will China Break.” The New York Times, December 18, 2011.       This material represents the views of the Investment Strategy Group (“ISG”) in the Investment Management Division of Goldman Sachs.  It is not a product of Goldman Sachs Asset Management (“GSAM”) or Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research.  The views and opinions expressed herein may differ from those expressed by other groups of Goldman Sachs.  Investors are urged to consult with their financial advisers before buying or selling any securities.  The information should not be relied upon in making an investment decision.  GSAM has no obligation to provide any updates or changes.   This information is provided to discuss general market activity, industry or sector trends, or other broad-based economic, market or political conditions.  This information should not be construed as research or investment advice, and investors are urged to consult with their financial advisors before buying or selling any securities.  This information may not be current and Goldman Sachs has no obligation to provide any updates or changes to such information.  The views and opinions expressed herein may differ from the views and opinions expressed by the Global Investment Research Department or other departments or divisions of Goldman Sachs.  ISG model portfolios do not take into account the particular financial circumstances, objectives, risk tolerance, goals or other needs of any specific client.  ISG model assumptions may change, without notice, resulting in higher or lower equilibrium returns for asset classes and/or portfolios.  ISG model portfolios do not follow Goldman Sachs Research and such portfolios may take positions that differ from the Firm's positions.  A client’s actual portfolio and investment objective(s) for accounts managed by Goldman Sachs may look significantly different from ISG or other Goldman Sachs models, as appropriate, based on a client’s particular financial circumstances, objectives, risk tolerance, goals or other needs.   This material is intended for informational purposes only and is provided solely in our capacity as a broker-dealer. This does not constitute an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security in any jurisdiction in which such an offer or solicitation is not authorized or to any person to whom it would be unlawful to make such offer or solicitation. This material is based upon current public information which we consider reliable, but we do not represent that such information is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such.  Information and opinions are as of the date of this material only and are subject to change without notice.   Alternative Investments such as hedge funds are subject to less regulation than other types of pooled investment vehicles such as mutual funds, may make speculative investments, may be illiquid and can involve a significant use of leverage, making them substantially riskier than the other investments.     Information and opinions expressed by individuals other than Goldman Sachs employees do not necessarily reflect the views of Goldman Sachs.  Information and opinions are as of the date of this material only and are subject to change without notice.     Economic and market forecasts presented herein reflect our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. These forecasts do not take into account the specific investment objectives, restrictions, tax and financial situation or other needs of any specific client. Clients should consider whether any advice or recommendation in this material is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek professional advice, including tax advice. References to indices, benchmarks or other measure of relative market performance over a specified period of time are provided for your information only.   This material does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Clients should consider whether any advice or recommendation in this material is suitable for their particular circumstances and, if appropriate, seek professional advice, including tax advice.   This material has been approved for issue in the United Kingdom solely for the purposes of Section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act of 2000 by Goldman Sachs International (“GSI”), Peterborough Court, 133 Fleet Street, London EC4A 2BB authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority; by Goldman Sachs Canada, in connection with its distribution in Canada; in the U.S. by Goldman Sachs, & Co.; in Hong Kong by Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C., Seoul Branch; in Japan by Goldman Sachs (Japan) Ltd.; in Australia by Goldman Sachs Australia Pty Limited (CAN 092 589 770); and in Singapore by Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte.   Goldman Sachs does not provide tax, accounting, or legal advice to its clients and all investors are strongly urged to consult with their own advisors regarding any potential strategy or investment.   No part of this material may be (i) copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form, by any means, or (ii) distributed to any person that is not an employee, officer, director, or authorized agent of the recipient, without Goldman, Sachs & Co.'s prior written consent.   Services offered through Goldman, Sachs & Co. 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