On a different list, I proposed the same idea as a New Year's contest: players compete by submitting Turing machines that start on a blank tape, write 2026 1s on it (I preferred the formulation that doesn't care where they are) and halt. The machine with the fewest states wins.
There was a fair amount of speculation. Obviously you can do it in 2026 states. Somebody pointed out that you could spend 45 states writing a block of 45 1s. Then you could square that number (there are a couple of fairly easy strategies for this), add one more 1, and quit. I spitballed this to be about 60 states.
Then I suggested spending a dozen states to write 2026 in binary: 1111101010. Then you implement a binary counter (two or three states at most), and decrement this binary number, adding a 1 to the final output at each step. I estimated this approach to take only 20 states in total.
At this point another contributor expressed confidence that it could be done in 5 states, citing the enormous number (on the order of 10^15) of possible 5-state machines. I argued that it wasn't obvious that 2026 would be among the possible outputs -- we needed to know more about the statistics of these machine's behavior. Perhaps they almost all write only a few 1s before quitting. The 1-counting version of the Busy Beaver function of 5 is 4098, but it seemed likely to me that this was an outlier, not typical.
The conclusion was that we would probably never know the theoretical minimum; we won't even know if it's possible in six states because there are just too many machines to canvas.
The conversation was ultimately disappointing to me, because nobody ever actually submitted any candidate machines.
-- Allan