Re: [energyresources] Financial Times review of "The Oracle of Oil"

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Denis Frith

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May 9, 2016, 1:03:13 AM5/9/16

to energyr...@yahoogroups.com, Senescence Of Civilization, Roeoz

It is understandable that the focus is currently on oil supply because it plays such a major part in the operation of the technical systems of civilization. However, some eighty materials are irreversibly being used up in the construction, operation and maintenance of these irrevocably aging systems. A elements of global society will have to try to copw with the inevitable powering down as this holistic reality hits home. Imagine what will happen to globe trade when shipping becomes unsustainable due to unavailability of fuel oil. How will people cope when they can no longer get electronic devices (from TVs to iPhones)? What will be done when grid systems fail due to lack of maintenance, partially because of climatic effects (wild fires, storms, long extrems cold periods)?

Denis Frith

Sent: Monday, May 09, 2016 at 4:05 AM
From: "Alice Friedemann alice_fr...@yahoo.com [energyresources]" <energyr...@yahoogroups.com>
To: energyr...@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [energyresources] Re: Financial Times review of "The Oracle of Oil"

I've posted excerpts of the 2 hearings at

Schlesinger predicts investments in 2006 will cause oil glut and denial of peak oil in future | Peak Energy & Resources, Climate Change, and the Preservation of Knowledge

Schlesinger predicts investments in 2006 will cause oil glut and denial of ...

Preservation of Knowedge, peak oil, ecology -

Former CIA director Woolsey also makes a savvy prediction:

"Even if other production comes on line, e.g., from unconventional sources such as tar sands in Alberta or shale in the American West, their relatively high cost of production could permit low-cost producers, particularly Saudi Arabia, to increase production, drop prices for a time, and undermine the economic viability of the higher cost competitors, as occurred in the mid-1980s. For the foreseeable future, as long as vehicular transportation is dominated by oil as it is today, the Greater Middle East, and especially Saudi Arabia, will remain in the driver’s seat."

Schlesinger also says:

"More importantly, we face a fundamental, longer term problem. In the decades ahead, we do not know precisely when, we shall reach a point, a plateau or peak, beyond which we shall be unable further to increase production of conventional oil worldwide. We need to understand that problem now and to begin to prepare for that transition.

The underlying problem is that for more than three decades, our production has outrun new discoveries. Most of our giant fields were found 40 years ago and more. Even today, the bulk of our production comes from these old—and aging—giant fields. More recent discoveries tend to be small with high decline rates—and are soon exhausted. Since the issue is crucial—and is not widely understood—I have prepared a chart which lays bare the problem.

The upshot is, quite simply, that, as the years roll by, the entire world will face a prospectively growing problem of energy supply. Moreover, we shall inevitably see a growing dependency on the volatile Middle East.The United States is today the preponderant military power in the world. Still, our military establishment is heavily dependent upon oil. At a minimum, the rising oil price poses a budgetary problem for the Department of Defense at a time that our national budget is increasingly strained. Moreover, in the longer run, as we face the prospect of a plateau in which we are no longer able, worldwide, to increase the production of oil against presumably still-rising demand, the question is whether the Department of Defense will still be able to obtain the supply of oil products necessary for maintaining our military preponderance. In that prospective world, the Department of Defense will face all sorts of pressures at home and abroad to curtail its use of petroleum products, thereby endangering its overall military effectiveness."

How could anyone have ever thought, or still think, that we invaded Iraq because of weapons of mass destruction?

Alice Friedemann in Oakland, CA

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Posted by: Alice Friedemann <alice_fr...@yahoo.com>

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