Are Hindus in Danger due to rising Muslim Population?
Ram Puniyani
As the election season is in progress the divisive
propaganda is also peaking. Chief propagandist of the ruling BJP is Prime
Minister Modi himself. In these elections his narrative has been built around
the falsehood that if the INDIA alliance comes to power they will give all the
facilities to Muslims, they will ensure that Muslims have the first right to
live and they will make changes in the Constitution whereby Hindus will become
second class citizens. Quite an Orwellian method, where reality is made to
stand on its head. A fright is being spread amongst Hindus that Muslims will
get away with all the privileges.
To add to this propaganda now Prime Ministers Economic
Advisory Council has come out with a report that concludes that Hindu's
population share declined by nearly 8% between 1950 and 2015 while Muslim's
share grew a record 43% in the same period. As per this study in 1950, Hindu population
share was 84%, but it came down to 78% in 2015. However, in the same period,
the share of minorities, including Muslims, Christian, Buddhist, and Sikhs,
went up. The number of Jains and Parsis in the population mix decreased.
What is
this PMEAC? This was constituted in 2017 and is supposed to be doing research
to advise the Prime Minister on economic matters. One sample of its ‘research’
came to light a couple of years back when its Chief, Bibek Debroy, quoted “…
a study to show
that the lifespan of written constitutions is just 17 years. Further terming
the present Constitution of India as a colonial legacy, he wrote, “Our current
Constitution is largely based on the Government of India Act of 1935. In that
sense, it is also a colonial legacy.”
And now
comes this strange study at the time of general elections. This boosts the anti
Muslim rhetoric and the “Hindu Khatre mein hai” scare created over many
decades. The three researchers, who produced this, have violated most of the
norms for analysis, to come to this conclusion. To begin with demographic
studies are based on population census. This one is based on the survey of
nearly 23 lakh people, from Association of Religion Data Archive (ARDA) , a
miniscule sample of our vast population. Census figures are more reliable and
comprehensive, bringing out different facets of population growth. For reasons
best known to the ruling party the 2021 census which was due has not been held
and these researchers have used survey data rather than more reliable census
data.
Then the
study compares the population figures of 1950 with those of 2015, again an
arbitrary method. The media and communal organizations are using this data to
intensify prevalent divisive propaganda. It reinforces the present social
understanding that Muslims produce more children. To begin with it was
popularized by our Prime Minister when he was chief Minister of Gujarat. While
deciding to close down the refugee camps where Muslims had taken shelter, he
called them,’ Children Producing Factories’. In the present scenario he is
merrily shouting from the house tops that Congress will snatch away Hindu’s
Mangal Sutra and Buffaloes and give it to those who produce more children.
What is
the truth of the number of Children produced by Muslims? One of the best
parameters for this is the Total Fertility Rate (TFR). According to a National
Health Family survey the fertility rate amongst most communities is coming
down. In 1992-93 it was 3.3 for Hindus and 4.41 for Muslims. In 2019-21, it was
1.94 for Hindus and 2.36 for Muslims. The percentage change for Hindus is thus
-41.21% for Hindus and - 46.49% for Muslims. The decline in percentage is more
amongst Muslims than Hindus. This shows that if such a pattern continues the
rate of Muslim population growth will further fall down and become close to
that of Hindus.
This is an
interesting pattern. The permanent question is whether fertility rate is
determined by religion or other factors. The sectarian nationalists have harped
on the fact that Muslims are deliberately increasing their population vis a vis
Hindus so that they will be a majority in this nation and will declare India as
Gazava-e-Hind (Conquest of India by Muslims)!
This is
one of the major falsehoods of communal politics to state that Hindus will
become a minority if this pattern continues. The first point is that the
factors influencing the number of children in a family are determined by two
major things. One is the level of poverty and second is the rate of the
literacy community as a whole and that of women in particular. This is amply
clear when we compare the rate of fertility Muslim of Muslim women in Kerala,
Kashmir and Karnataka, with the TFR for Hindu women in Bihar, Rajasthan and
Madhya Pradesh. It is lower for Muslim women in these states.
An
important study by Saswata Ghose points out that “Thus, comparing
state-level fertility differentials between Hindus and Muslims as estimated
from Census 2011 and Census 2001, it can be ascertained that though the overall
convergence of fertility between Hindus and Muslims has been
underway, significant regional variations persist in the process of convergence
since different states and religious groups are at different stages of
transition”
As per S.Y.
Quraishi, whose book on the issue ‘The Population myth: Islam. Family planning
and Politics in India’ is quite a comprehensive account of the issue, in 24 of
the 29 states of India TFR is already coming close to 2.179, the one indicative
of a stable population, 2.1 is a mere replacement level.
It is
estimated that the Muslim population which is 14.2 % as per 2011 census will
stabilize to 18% by 2050 and will stay put there as the trends amongst Muslim
community show. The decadal rate of Muslim population growth also shows a
substantial decline.
Irrespective
of the immaculate studies, the communalists in various ways mock the Muslim
community. I recall one instance where a team of Muslim elite sought an
appointment to talk to RSS Sarsanghchalak. Dr Quraishi was a member of the
team. He presented Bhagwat with his book which debunks the notions spread by
RSS Combine. And lo and behold in a statement a few weeks later Sarsanghchalak
stated that there should be a ‘balance in population’ among different
communities!