Leading the Multipolar Revolution: How Russia and China Are Creating a New World Order

[Mikael Forsberg]

Leading the Multipolar Revolution: How Russia and China Are Creating a
New World Order

The last thirty days have shown another kind of world that is engaging
in cooperation, dialogue and diplomatic efforts to resolve important
issues. The meeting of the members of the Belt and Road Initiative laid
the foundations for a physical and electronic connectivity among
Eurasian countries, making it the backbone of sustainable and renewable
trade development based on mutual cooperation. A few weeks later, the
Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting in Astana outlined the
necessary conditions for the success of the Chinese project, such as
securing large areas of the Eurasian block and improving dialogue and
trust among member states. The following AIIB (Asian Infrastructure
Investment Bank) meeting in ROK will layout the economical necessities
to finance and sustain the BRI projects.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the Chinese Belt and
Road Initiative (BRI) have many common features, and in many ways seem
complementary. The SCO is an organization that focuses heavily on
economic, political and security issues in the region, while the BRI is
a collection of infrastructure projects that incorporates three-fifths
of the globe and is driven by Beijing's economic might. In this context,
the Eurasian block continues to develop the following initiatives to
support both the BRI and SCO mega-projects. The Collective Security
Treaty Organization (CTSO) is a Moscow-based organization focusing
mainly on the fight against terrorism, while the Asian Infrastructure
Investment Bank (AIIB) is a Beijing-based investment bank that is
responsible for generating important funding for Beijing’s long-term
initiatives along its maritime routes (ports and canals) and overland
routes (road, bridges, railways, pipelines, industries, airports). The
synergies between these initiatives find yet another point of
convergence in the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). Together, the SCO,
BRI, CTSO, AIIB, and EEU provide a compelling indication of the
direction in which humanity is headed, which is to say towards
integration, cooperation and peaceful development through diplomacy.

On the other side we have the «old world order» made up of the IMF, the
World Bank, the European Union, the UN, NATO, the WTO, with Washington
being the ringmaster at the center of this vision of a world order. It
is therefore not surprising that Washington should look askance at these
Eurasian initiatives that threaten to deny its central and commanding
role in the global order in favor of a greater say by Moscow, Beijing,
New Delhi and even Tehran.

One of the most significant and noteworthy events in the last month, or
even in recent years, has been the admission into the SCO of India and
Pakistan, two nuclear powers with a history of tension and conflict
between them. These two countries are critical to the peaceful and
fruitful integration of Eurasia. The slow, two-year process of India and
Pakistan’s admission into the SCO benefited greatly from China and
Russia’s mediation, culminating in the historical agreement signed by
Modi, Sharif, Putin and Xi. This is not to mention Afghanistan’s Ghani
being at the same table with Modi and Sharif, representing one of the
most infamous locations where Eurasian powers have clashed with each
other, acting as an obstacle to the integration and development of the
region. The main goal of the new SCO organization is a peaceful
mediation between New Delhi and Islamabad, and certainly to reach a
wider agreement that can include Afghanistan. Kabul is a good example of
how the SCO can offer the ideal framework for achieving a definitive
peace settlement. This reflects the sentiment that was expressed during
the meeting that took place a few weeks ago in Moscow between Pakistan,
India, China, Russia and Afghanistan over the complicated situation in
the country. Clearly there are conflicting interests, and it is only
through the mediation of Beijing and Moscow that it will be possible to
reach a wider agreement and end the 16-year-old conflict.

Afghanistan is a good example of how the SCO intends to support the BRI.
In this sense, it is important to note that Moscow and Beijing have
decided to engage in a partnership that looks more like an alliance with
long-term projects planned deep into 2030. The extent to which Russia
and China are committed to common initiatives and projects can be seen
in the BRI, SCO, AIIB and CTSO.

Security and Development

Beijing is fully aware that it is impossible to defeat terrorism without
laying the foundation for economic growth in underdeveloped countries in
Africa, Middle East, Central Asia and South Asia. Terrorist
organizations are generally better able to recruit from populations
suffering from low income and poor schooling. The SCO is required to
manage and control its members’ most unstable areas (Central Asian
republics, Afghanistan, India-Pakistan border, Beijing-New Delhi
relations) and mediate between parties. The BRI and SCO go hand in hand,
one being unable to operate without the other, as Xi and Putin have
reiterated.

The SCO and BRI are both capable of meeting the challenges of economic
growth through development and progress. Just looking at the BRI's major
projects helps one understand the level and extent of integration that
has been agreed. The Eurasian Land Bridge begins in Western China and
ends in Western Russia. The China-Mongolia-Russia economic corridor
begins in Northern China and arrives in Eastern Russia. Central Asia
will be connected to Western Asia, which practically means China linking
with Turkey. The China-Indochina corridor runs from Southern China to
Singapore; and the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar corridor starts in
Southern China and arrives in India. The nearly completed China-Pakistan
corridor starts in south-western China and reaches Pakistan. Finally,
the maritime route running from the Chinese coast through to Singapore
will reach the Mediterranean in Greece or, in the future, Venice.

What is evident is that countries like India, Singapore, Turkey and
Myanmar, just to name a few, do not wish to miss the opportunity to join
this initiative that promises to revolutionize trade and globalization
as we know it. Today’s main economic problems, as well as the problem
posed by terrorism, stems from the lack of economic growth brought on by
a globalization that enriches the elites at the expense of ordinary
people. The BRI aims to reinvent globalization, avoiding the
protectionist drift that many countries today adopt in response to an
aggressive and failed approach to globalization. Beijing intends to
bring about a radical change to its industries by restructuring its
production and boosting its investment in technology, generating more
internal consumption, and becoming a country that offers services and
not only manufacturing. For this process to be successful, it will be
fundamental to reorganize the regional supply chain by transferring
production to more competitive countries that will play important roles
in sectors such as agriculture, energy, logistics and industrial
projects. Southeast Asia in particular seems to offer ideal destinations
for transferring Chinese industries.

In this process of transforming a good part of the globe, some countries
currently outside of the SCO organization are nevertheless fully part of
the integration schemes and will play a decisive role in the future. In
particular, Iran, Turkey and Egypt are the main focus when one looks at
their geographical position. The importance of these three countries
vis-a-vis the SCO arises mainly from the need of the organization to
pursue its work of political expansion and, in the future, to counter
militarily the problem of terrorism and its spread. Naturally, countries
like Iran and Egypt already devote a large part of their resources
towards counteracting the terrorist phenomenon in the Middle East and
North Africa. Their entry into the SCO would be seen by many
protagonists of the BRI, especially China, as providing the opportunity
to expand their projects in areas in North Africa and the Middle East
that are currently tumultuous.

This should not come as a surprise, since even countries like Jordan and
Israel have been taken into account by Beijing for important
infrastructure projects related to the transport of desalinated water to
regions with a high rate of drought. With Israel, the Chinese
partnership is stronger than ever, counting on various factors such as
technological development and the expansion of several Israeli ports to
connect more Chinese maritime routes with destinations in the
Mediterranean like Piraeus in Greece and probably Venice in Italy.
Turkey's entry into the SCO is mainly aimed at gathering the region's
major oil and gas suppliers and consumers under a single umbrella
guaranteed by the SCO. These operations take time and a degree of
cooperation that is hard to maintain, although the resolution of the
situation in Syria, in addition to the crisis in the Gulf between Qatar
and Saudi Arabia, could accelerate synergies and easily facilitate them.

The entry of Iran, Egypt and Turkey into the SCO is inevitable,
receiving the strong encouragement of China and Russia, especially as
regards the future connection between BRI and other infrastructure
projects that are part of the EEU. The advantages are quite obvious to
everyone, bringing about greater integration and infrastructure links,
the increase of trade between nations, and general cooperation in mutual
development. Products can travel from one country to another based on
conditions determined bilaterally, something that often favors bigger
nations rather than smaller ones. The intention of ​​China's
Globalization 2.0, coupled with a Eurasian revival of the EEU, is to
change the future of humanity by shifting the global pole of
globalization and development towards the east. The BRI is immense and
mind boggling in its scope, given that it embraces realities ranging
from Panama (focused on the extended channel and the Nicaragua project
for a new channel) to Australia, passing through Europe, the Middle
East, Asia and the Persian Gulf.

Naturally, in this delicate balance, Europe is called on to play a
decisive role in the future. The United States, with its «America First»
policy, has already burned bridges with the Chinese BRI revolution, and
indeed hopes to throw a spanner in China’s works. European countries
including England, France, Germany and Italy have already begun to sign
onto various Chinese proposals. It looks as if America’s allies are no
longer listening to their former boss. The European Central Bank has for
the first time diversified $500m into Yuan currency, and London,
together with Rome, Berlin and Paris, was present in Beijing for the
launch of the BRI. France, Germany and England sent high-level
representations and delegations, Italy directly the Prime Minister. For
Europe, the largest exporter to China and the second-largest regional
block importing from China, it is inevitable that it will be an integral
part of the BRI, looking to reach Iran, Turkey and Egypt for energy
supplies and diversifying sources, all within the framework of the BRI.

In this process of Eurasian integration, there are some key countries to
keep in mind, but the first steps have already been made with almost
indissoluble ties having been made between Moscow and Beijing, as well
as the monumental inclusion of Pakistan and India at the same table.
With an understanding between India, Russia and China, as well as a lack
of hostility to the project in Iran, Israel, Germany, England, Turkey
and Egypt, it will be possible to speed up this global change, bringing
it to the African countries, Gulf monarchies, South Asian countries, and
even South and Central America. Even Washington's historic allies like
Israel, Saudi Arabia and the EU vacillate in the face of such an
opportunity to broaden their horizons with significant gains. As far as
their alliance with the United States, in this world rapidly heading
towards a multipolar world order, not even Riyadh, Tel Aviv or London
can afford the luxury of ignoring the project that perhaps more than any
other will revolutionize the future of humanity in the near future. Not
being a part of it is simply not an option.

The United States has two diametrically opposed options before it. It
can operate alongside the BRI project, trying to fashion its own sphere
of influence, albeit smaller than the countries residing within the
Eurasian continent; but of course for Washington, simply being part of a
grand project may not be enough, since it is used to getting its own way
and subordinating the interests of other countries to its own. If the US
decides to try and sabotage the BRI with their normal tools like
terrorism, it is very likely that the countries historically aligned
with Washington in these affairs (such as Pakistan and Saudi Arabia)
will be subjected to Chinese economic pressure and encouraged to instead
participate in a more positive manner.

Cooperation against Threats

The main question is the extent to which Chinese economic persuasion
will succeed in overcoming US military threats. In this respect the SCO
will be a decisive factor as it expands its influence beyond the
Eurasian bloc into Africa and the Middle East. To date, the SCO cannot
be considered a military bloc opposed to NATO. Everything will depend on
the pressures that the United States will bring to bear on participating
countries. Therefore, it is likely that the SCO will evolve to include a
strong military aspect in order to counter American destabilization efforts.

It is difficult to predict whether the US will be neutral or
belligerent. But considering recent history, American hostility is
likely to force Moscow and Beijing into an asymmetric response that will
hit Washington where it hurts most, namely its economic interests.
Aiming at the dollar, and in particular the petrodollar, seems to be the
best bet for advancing the BRI, threatening a massive de-dollarization
that would end in disaster for Washington. This is the nuclear option
that Beijing and Moscow are looking into, with more than a desire to
accelerate this economic shift.

The future of humanity seems to be changing in exciting and
unprecedented ways. The full integration of the Eurasian bloc will
eventually end up changing the course of history, allowing nations that
are currently weak and poor to withstand colonial pressures and broaden
their cooperation and dialogue. Peace as a method for developing
synergies and prosperity seems to be the new paradigm, contrasting with
war and destruction as has been the case in the last decades.

https://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2017/06/20/leading-multipolar-revolution-how-russia-china-creating-new-world-order.html


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