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I am not sure what to ask, so bare with me a bit. Is there merit in getting all the teams to agree what a 5pt story is? How do you go about this without saying, "A 5pt story is like 2-3 days". Most of the conversations end up at this point, and get days assigned to points. I am trying to stay clear of that, but it seems impossible.
Merit to whom? To the teams? No. To an external Project Manager? Maybe. What problem are you trying to solve. Or is this a solution looking for a problem?
Well, first of all, you need a PM that doesn't do all the obviously wrong things. Then, the SPs are used as input to changing baseline assumptions and balancing project plans. They are one of the major visibility points into the development...
Hi Dan,
On Mar 28, 2013, at 8:53 PM, Dan Rawsthorne <draws...@gmail.com> wrote:
Well, first of all, you need a PM that doesn't do all the obviously wrong things. Then, the SPs are used as input to changing baseline assumptions and balancing project plans. They are one of the major visibility points into the development...OK, so first select a PM from the null set.
Then please say more about what changing baseline assumptions and balancing project plans means, and how they do it.
Here's one example:�
I suppose balancing project plans means observing, now that all the stories are the same size, that team A is overloaded and team B is not. So we move some stories from A to B?
Voila! If we do, we discover that the stories are no longer the same size because team A knew how to do them and team B did not.
Or we move people from B to A?
Voila! Both teams immediately slow down, A more than B �
Really. I seriously question whether there is anything even a good PM could do using balanced story sizes better than he could do without balanced story sizes. My guess is Not One Thing.
www.XProgramming.com
Ron JeffriesYou never know what is enough unless you know what is more than enough. -- William Blake
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no. balancing a plan means that cost, scope, and schedule are in balance based on the realities of development. Keeping project plans in balance is the main job of a project manager, according to the PMI. It's all about the plan.
Examples of Assumptions (original baselines):
- this Project is worth XX StoryPoints (this requires SPs that are about size, not effort)
- a StoryPoint will take HH Hours on average
- an Hour will cost DD Dollars on average
Then, the Project Plan is based on these assumptions. The assumptions are constantly monitored and re-baselined, thus changing the plans. Doing this chore is the main job of the Project Manager during the execution of the Project... their tools are changing scope, changing budget, and so on. Oh, and they also explain to Project Stakeholders why they aren't getting what they want, etc... the PM is the Product Owner of the Project Plan.
A PM in a scrum environment has no need to manage the team members - that's taken care of already. they should stay in their own rice bowl.
I don't understand what you could possibly mean by a team being overloaded or not. A team does what it does - it gets to Done while working at a Sustainable Pace.
BTW, I'm really sorry you've never seen a good Project Manager :(
The size of the Project is independent of Teams. The cost of the Project is Team dependent.
Dan �
On Mar 29, 2013, at 11:46 AM, Dan Rawsthorne <draws...@gmail.com> wrote:
The size of the Project is independent of Teams. The cost of the Project is Team dependent.�What are the units of "size"?�
Ron Jeffries
If another does not intend offense, it is wrong for me to seek it;if another does indeed intend offense, it is foolish for me to permit it.
� -- Kelly Easterley
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�
[getting a bag of popcorn for this the Dan and Ron show on this topic...]
Use Cases, Function Points, features, etc. How much stuff is being built. The units used are varied and often process dependent. In my world they are the things that StoryPoints are a relative measure of. They are hard to get at...
Dan,
On Mar 29, 2013, at 3:25 PM, Dan Rawsthorne <dan.raw...@drdansplace.com> wrote:
Use Cases, Function Points, features, etc. How much stuff is being built. The units used are varied and often process dependent. In my world they are the things that StoryPoints are a relative measure of. They are hard to get at...Use cases are not constant sized, nor sized at all. Seems unlikely that two projects each with 500 use cases are anything like the same "size".
Function points were intended to serve as size, but as I read the literature, no two projects estimate FP similarly.
Features, come on, get real. Completely random in size.
Size in square meters and square feet are different numbers but the same size.
You keep saying that size is important. If it doesn't have units and is not comparable � what is it?
Ron Jeffries
I'm really pissed off by what people are passing off as "agile" these days.You may have a red car, but that does not make it a Ferrari.
� -- Steve Hayes
So what is size for a functional story. It's something we estimate with relative sizes... that's the whole point. Everybody sees size differently. Some see how many widgets were added, some see moving parts in the code. some see methods and properties. some see states. So, we have a estimation game and all agree if something is Small, Medium, or Large. Why do you think we're estimating it in the first place? Because it's HARD to define, and it's HARD to measure.
We have approx 15 development teams, some using Kanban, some using Scrum.Recently we have tried to implement a monthly "Dev Ops" meeting, where teams have approx 5-10 mins to update everyone what is going on. What projects, what they learned from retros, stating impediments and how they were addressed.One of the things we show in this meeting is a team wide, then location wide cycle time report.Since this meeting is a coming together of dev, some managers, some product managers, etc, the concepts of story points and burndowns can be a bit burdensome, so that is why we went with cycle time.So now, glaringly, the differences in team points has floated to the top of something we "might" want to address.
I am not sure what to ask, so bare with me a bit. Is there merit in getting all the teams to agree what a 5pt story is? How do you go about this without saying, "A 5pt story is like 2-3 days". Most of the conversations end up at this point, and get days assigned to points. I am trying to stay clear of that, but it seems impossible.
We discussed tshirt sizes, each team would agree that a medium shirt is the "typical" story for that team. Does that have any merit, never defining how long or how many "story points" the shirt size is worth.I guess I am looking for ideas, thoughts why it would be good and bad, any information that would help me bring these thoughts to conclusion. The "business" is skeptical that one teams 13 points is 4 days and another teams is 2 weeks. Is there anywhere that common ground can be found? Anyone tackle this sort of thing with success?Again, this is more of a brainstorming, nobody is mandating it, but does seem in the best interest to find a way that teams can be transparent without showing a burndown chart.Ideas?Thanks
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I can agree with that.
Hi, Dan,
On 3/30/13 1:26 AM, Dan Rawsthorne wrote:
Do you know a big dog when you see it? What makes it a big dog? Height?
Weight? Fierceness? Appetite? Size is in the eye of the beholder, but we
all tend to agree on what is small, medium, or large.
You would think we'd agree. I had a friend with a great dane who considered labrador retrievers "medium" and collies "small."
So what is size for a functional story. It's something we estimate with
relative sizes... that's the whole point. Everybody sees size
differently. Some see how many widgets were added, some see moving parts
in the code. some see methods and properties. some see states. So, we
have a estimation game and all agree if something is Small, Medium, or
Large. Why do you think we're estimating it in the first place? Because
it's HARD to define, and it's HARD to measure.
That's why a like the pile of rocks metaphor. What do you measure?
number of rocks? cubic feet of rocks, tonnage of rocks. I don't know,
and I don't care. But when I"m comparing one pile of rocks to another, I
can tell which is larger - and most of us will be pretty consistent on
that.
In the software development industry, we've been pretty terrible at agreeing as to whether a pile of unwritten code is bigger or smaller than another pile of unwritten code. Those who don't do the work tend to be worse at judging this. (I suspect I'd be pretty bad as estimating the rock piles compared to someone who does the work. The characteristics of the rock pile and the equipment they had might change the judgement.)
That's why I'm in favor of having those that do the work, do the estimate. When you do that, of course, the hope of correlated estimates goes right out the window.
The good thing is that it often doesn't matter very much, as long as we don't start assuming accuracy and adding precision. When we start calculating based on estimates (rather than, perhaps, the central tendency of estimates), then we can magnify our problems in a hurry.
�- George
What kind of size is important to you? we know that since we've added
functionality (a new test passes), that we've made the system larger
larger. How much larger? One test's worth... maybe that's good enough.
Ken now defines Velocity as #Features/$100K. Does this make sense? Sure,
once everybody agrees on what it means.
Now, this thread started with the question of standardizing the
estimations. That's a different issue. Once we figure out what size is,
then we can worry about normalizing it so that it can be added and
compared. One step at a time.
Dan� ;-)
Dan Rawsthorne, PhD, PMP, CST
3Back.com <http://www.3Back.com>
Author of /Exploring Scrum: the Fundamentals/
<http://www.amazon.com/dp/1461160286>
On 3/29/2013 12:34 PM, Ron Jeffries wrote:
Dan,
On Mar 29, 2013, at 3:25 PM, Dan Rawsthorne
<dan.raw...@drdansplace.com
<mailto:dan.raw...@drdansplace.com>> wrote:
Use Cases, Function Points, features, etc. How much stuff is being
built. The units used are varied and often process dependent. In my
world they are the things that StoryPoints are a relative measure of.
They are hard to get at...
Use cases are not constant sized, nor sized at all. Seems unlikely
that two projects each with 500 use cases are anything like the same
"size".
Function points were intended to serve as size, but as I read the
literature, no two projects estimate FP similarly.
Features, come on, get real. Completely random in size.
Size in square meters and square feet are different numbers but the
same size.
You keep saying that size is important. If it doesn't have units and
is not comparable � what is it?
Ron Jeffries
www.XProgramming.com <http://www.xprogramming.com>
I'm really pissed off by what people are passing off as "agile" these
days.
You may have a red car, but that does not make it a Ferrari.
� -- Steve Hayes
The sprint commitment isn't do-or-die, it's a goal that we the team realistically believe can be accomplished. It is the hypothesis that we test in the experiment called a sprint, and we either prove or disprove it (by doing more, or less). Whatever the result, we learn so we can improve.
One thing that dismays me is how many seem to resist any sort of measurement, as if measurement is inherently harmful...or even evil. PDCA is the heart of Scrum... inspect-and-act. If we don't inspect, then our actions are random and instead of improvement we perform the Drunkard's Walk.
Yes, measurement has been misused... so what? Don't let misuse be an excuse to avoid measurement as a part of improvement. Stand up against dysfunctional management instead of avoiding the problem.
Dan,
My observation has been that the examplars don't translate across teams. Only one team, at most, is likely to have done the examplar, so the others are merely guessing. There is not generally, in my experience, a lot of shared experience between teams. It strikes me that this could possibly be remedied, but would be expensive in terms of time and effort to do so.
�- George
�- George
What kind of size is important to you? we know that since we've added
functionality (a new test passes), that we've made the system larger
larger. How much larger? One test's worth... maybe that's good enough.
Ken now defines Velocity as #Features/$100K. Does this make sense? Sure,
once everybody agrees on what it means.
Now, this thread started with the question of standardizing the
estimations. That's a different issue. Once we figure out what size is,
then we can worry about normalizing it so that it can be added and
compared. One step at a time.
Dan� ;-)
Dan Rawsthorne, PhD, PMP, CST
3Back.com <http://www.3Back.com>
Author of /Exploring Scrum: the Fundamentals/
<http://www.amazon.com/dp/1461160286>
On 3/29/2013 12:34 PM, Ron Jeffries wrote:
Dan,
On Mar 29, 2013, at 3:25 PM, Dan Rawsthorne
<dan.raw...@drdansplace.com
<mailto:dan.raw...@drdansplace.com>> wrote:
Use Cases, Function Points, features, etc. How much stuff is being
built. The units used are varied and often process dependent. In my
world they are the things that StoryPoints are a relative measure of.
They are hard to get at...
Use cases are not constant sized, nor sized at all. Seems unlikely
that two projects each with 500 use cases are anything like the same
"size".
Function points were intended to serve as size, but as I read the
literature, no two projects estimate FP similarly.
Features, come on, get real. Completely random in size.
Size in square meters and square feet are different numbers but the
same size.
You keep saying that size is important. If it doesn't have units and
is not comparable � what is it?
Ron Jeffries
www.XProgramming.com <http://www.xprogramming.com>
I'm really pissed off by what people are passing off as "agile" these
days.
You may have a red car, but that does not make it a Ferrari.
� -- Steve Hayes
Words can be word smithed to death. This thread is a perfect example.
They can be and are abused by people.
While people are doing that I ask that the team do their best, deliver, deliver, deliver and the conversations and word smithing stops.
Mike Vizdos
Implementingscrum.com
Dan,
On 3/31/13 1:56 AM, Dan Rawsthorne wrote:
Yes, so what you have to do is get exemplars that are the same size, not
necessarily the same exemplars
Easier said than done. And even a single team tends to vary over time. Yes, an engineer would think that impossible since the reference story for sizing hasn't changed. But I observe it in ever team I encounter.
�- George
Dan Rawsthorne, PhD, PMP, CST
3Back.com <http://www.3Back.com>
Author of /Exploring Scrum: the Fundamentals/
<http://www.amazon.com/dp/1461160286>
On 3/30/2013 5:22 PM, George Dinwiddie wrote:
Dan,
My observation has been that the examplars don't translate across
teams. Only one team, at most, is likely to have done the examplar, so
the others are merely guessing. There is not generally, in my
experience, a lot of shared experience between teams. It strikes me
that this could possibly be remedied, but would be expensive in terms
of time and effort to do so.
�- George
�- George
What kind of size is important to you? we know that since we've added
functionality (a new test passes), that we've made the system larger
larger. How much larger? One test's worth... maybe that's good enough.
Ken now defines Velocity as #Features/$100K. Does this make sense?
Sure,
once everybody agrees on what it means.
Now, this thread started with the question of standardizing the
estimations. That's a different issue. Once we figure out what size
is,
then we can worry about normalizing it so that it can be added and
compared. One step at a time.
Dan� ;-)
Dan Rawsthorne, PhD, PMP, CST
3Back.com <http://www.3Back.com>
Author of /Exploring Scrum: the Fundamentals/
<http://www.amazon.com/dp/1461160286>
On 3/29/2013 12:34 PM, Ron Jeffries wrote:
Dan,
On Mar 29, 2013, at 3:25 PM, Dan Rawsthorne
<dan.raw...@drdansplace.com
<mailto:dan.raw...@drdansplace.com>> wrote:
Use Cases, Function Points, features, etc. How much stuff is being
built. The units used are varied and often process dependent. In my
world they are the things that StoryPoints are a relative measure
of.
They are hard to get at...
Use cases are not constant sized, nor sized at all. Seems unlikely
that two projects each with 500 use cases are anything like the same
"size".
Function points were intended to serve as size, but as I read the
literature, no two projects estimate FP similarly.
Features, come on, get real. Completely random in size.
Size in square meters and square feet are different numbers but the
same size.
You keep saying that size is important. If it doesn't have units and
is not comparable � what is it?
Ron Jeffries
www.XProgramming.com <http://www.xprogramming.com>
I'm really pissed off by what people are passing off as "agile" these
days.
You may have a red car, but that does not make it a Ferrari.
� -- Steve Hayes
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Software Development http://www.idiacomputing.com
Consultant and Coach http://www.agilemaryland.org
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Dan,
On 3/31/13 3:52 PM, Dan Rawsthorne wrote:
the "a single team tends to vary over time" comment indicates you
believe that Size is affected by the team. My argument is, and has been,
that the size of a Story is a function of the Story - not the Team. The
Team estimates it, but does not affect it (except by the quality of its
estimation, of course).
The size of something not yet in existence is affected by the team doing the estimation.
Look at that pile of rocks I want you to put over there. What size is it? Is it bigger or smaller than the other pile of rocks I want?
�- George
Dan Rawsthorne, PhD, PMP, CST
3Back.com <http://www.3Back.com>
Author of /Exploring Scrum: the Fundamentals/
<http://www.amazon.com/dp/1461160286>
On 3/31/2013 11:50 AM, George Dinwiddie wrote:
Dan,
On 3/31/13 1:56 AM, Dan Rawsthorne wrote:
Yes, so what you have to do is get exemplars that are the same size, not
necessarily the same exemplars
Easier said than done. And even a single team tends to vary over time.
Yes, an engineer would think that impossible since the reference story
for sizing hasn't changed. But I observe it in ever team I encounter.
�- George
Dan Rawsthorne, PhD, PMP, CST
3Back.com <http://www.3Back.com>
Author of /Exploring Scrum: the Fundamentals/
<http://www.amazon.com/dp/1461160286>
On 3/30/2013 5:22 PM, George Dinwiddie wrote:
Dan,
My observation has been that the examplars don't translate across
teams. Only one team, at most, is likely to have done the examplar, so
the others are merely guessing. There is not generally, in my
experience, a lot of shared experience between teams. It strikes me
that this could possibly be remedied, but would be expensive in terms
of time and effort to do so.
�- George
�- George
What kind of size is important to you? we know that since we've
added
functionality (a new test passes), that we've made the system larger
larger. How much larger? One test's worth... maybe that's good
enough.
Ken now defines Velocity as #Features/$100K. Does this make sense?
Sure,
once everybody agrees on what it means.
Now, this thread started with the question of standardizing the
estimations. That's a different issue. Once we figure out what size
is,
then we can worry about normalizing it so that it can be added and
compared. One step at a time.
Dan� ;-)
is not comparable � what is it?
Ron Jeffries
www.XProgramming.com <http://www.xprogramming.com>
I'm really pissed off by what people are passing off as "agile"
these
days.
You may have a red car, but that does not make it a Ferrari.
� -- Steve Hayes
In my current project, we hadn't done estimation at all for the first 6 months. We had a rule that a user story was small enough to be completely done in about 2-3 days. That worked well enough. Often they still wouldn't be done in that time, but usually it was close enough.
Recently the project went into another phase, for which we wanted a little more idea of how far we still had to go. We held a few sizing sessions, where all four teams were present, planned functionality was discussed, and then each team did a silent grouping of the features/epics identified into three groups: small (<5 stories), medium (5 to 10 stories), large (10 to 15 stories). Anything bigger or unclear was put into 'parked' to have a more detailed look at later. We then did a central 'merge' of each team's sizing, where too much of a difference got a story parked, and adjacent sizing got the larger one selected.In a way, this works around some of the discussion here. Stories don't have a size in story points, but they do have a grounding in (cycle) time. That grounding is a maximum only, of course, but since they're supposed to be small, that doesn't really matter.The t-shirt size estimates have a built-in uncertainty, but in this process they are agreed upon by all teams. We could even track how many stories each feature turns out to really have, though I have my doubts about the value of that.What do you think of this construction? Bad thing would be that it's a (disguised) estimation in time. Good thing might be that it allows for a common idea of the amount of work to be done. I'd be interested in view on how this will bite me in the... :-)
Hi Wouter �
On Mar 31, 2013, at 6:46 PM, Wouter Lagerweij <wou...@lagerweij.com> wrote:
In my current project, we hadn't done estimation at all for the first 6 months. We had a rule that a user story was small enough to be completely done in about 2-3 days. That worked well enough. Often they still wouldn't be done in that time, but usually it was close enough.
Yes � reminds me of something we have said when we were there � :)
Recently the project went into another phase, for which we wanted a little more idea of how far we still had to go. We held a few sizing sessions, where all four teams were present, planned functionality was discussed, and then each team did a silent grouping of the features/epics identified into three groups: small (<5 stories), medium (5 to 10 stories), large (10 to 15 stories). Anything bigger or unclear was put into 'parked' to have a more detailed look at later. We then did a central 'merge' of each team's sizing, where too much of a difference got a story parked, and adjacent sizing got the larger one selected.
In a way, this works around some of the discussion here. Stories don't have a size in story points, but they do have a grounding in (cycle) time. That grounding is a maximum only, of course, but since they're supposed to be small, that doesn't really matter.The t-shirt size estimates have a built-in uncertainty, but in this process they are agreed upon by all teams. We could even track how many stories each feature turns out to really have, though I have my doubts about the value of that.
What do you think of this construction? Bad thing would be that it's a (disguised) estimation in time. Good thing might be that it allows for a common idea of the amount of work to be done. I'd be interested in view on how this will bite me in the... :-)
I would imagine it will produce as good a result as one can get. There are probably quite a few algorithms that would do this, and since the guesses were made by people with actual experience, they'll be pretty good.
My concerns -- as I'm sure you know -- are not so much with the likelihood of inaccuracy as with the use of the estimates, whether they are good or not so good.
The smaller concern is that management will use the figures as promises, leading to pressure to get done "on time", leading to lower quality, higher defect rates, dogs and cats living together, and so on. I think you know how to avoid those things pretty well, though there is always danger.
My larger concern is that this kind of approach focuses on "getting it all done". The issue is in the middle: "it all". The second greatest power of an Agile project is not in getting things done, but in choosing what to get done � and what not to do at all. I am concerned that once one has this list of "it all", the focus turns to grinding it all out.
The greatest power of an Agile project -- of course -- is using the full creativity of the whole team to solve the problem rather than to complete the backlog. The PO and team consider the problem, and jointly work out truly creative solutions to the problem. These solutions will look like the backlog epics but not like detailed backlog items.
It sounds as if you've left both these options open, in that you've not actually created the detailed backlog items � just guessed "how many" stories they might be.�
So as a way to estimate -- which sometimes one does want to do -- this seems to me to be a fairly safe one. My overall concern isn't the same as some people, who think estimation isn't possible. I know it's possible. I just think it is not safe, and while I wouldn't hesitate to do it if I had to, I don't think it's a good tool to put in the hands of average and below-average teams.�
Of course all the teams represented here are above average � :)
www.XProgramming.com
Ron JeffriesEverything that needs to be said has already been said.But since no one was listening, everything must be said again. -- Andre Gide
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�
�
Ok, back to basics. A story is a request for something that provides value. So there are three things involved here: the effort to build that something, the something itself, and the value it provides. The something has size, even if it's hard to measure or even grok.
For example, we're usually talking about functionality, right? So, the story is asking for a given functional test to pass that doesn't already. If nothing else, the size of the something is defined by that functional test. This passes, and it didn't before... functionality increased. Now, people doing functional sizing do it in many different ways. We know there is a size, but we don't agree on the units, or the method for sizing, or whatever. What is cool is that an estimation game can be used to get a relative measure of the size, nomatter what we think it is. . The size is Small. it is Large, whatever. When we have an exemplar, the sizing becomes consistent, and the team gets better at it. This thing is Small, this one is Large.
Now, if we have sizing, the hope is that the Effort expended on that something is proportional to the size with some relatively constant ratio. It won't be, of course, if environmental variables like the Team's Ability, or Technical Debt, or Organizational Noise, are changing. Then the amount of Effort it wakes will change. This is a good thing, as it makes the Environmental Variables externally visible... just sayin'... I discussed this in Chapter 3.7 in my book, which some Ron Jeffries guy said was "the best scrum book I have seen"... and I know that these fights we keep having are making the next book even better. Thanks for that :)
Now, about those units. What units do we use to measure a pile of rocks? Count, volume measurements, mass, whatever. It doesn't really matter. What matters is that we learn to do consistent estimations that prove to be useful to us.
Now, for a thought experiment to show that StoryPoints being a relative measure of Effort is not useful…
Assume we have a team that makes completely accurate and precise estimates of relative effort. In other words, they estimate Size(Story) = Cx(Actual Effort it takes), where C is some constant. Then Velocity = (Sum(Size(Done Story))) = (Cx(Sum(Actual Effort for Done Story))) = Cx(Effort Expended in the Sprint), which is essentially constant, assuming a constant team working at a Sustainable Pace. In other words, Velocity always settles down because Teams get better at estimating. Unfortunately, the resulting Velocity is not a useful thing to people trying to make predictions of release dates, or manage the project.
Why is it not useful? Here are a couple of examples.
1. If a Team gets better, Velocity stays the same - the Team's sizing estimates adapt to the fact stories are getting easier. More gets done, but we don't know how much more. I call this the Alan Atlas conundrum. He asked (on this forum I think) "How come if my team is getting better their Velocity isn't increasing?"
2. If Technical Debt starts eating up the Team, the Velocity stays the same - the Team's sizing estimates adapt to the fact stories are getting harder. Less gets done, but we don't know how much more. BTW. this is the situation that causes Ken to define Velocity = #Features/$100K on pages 93-98 of the Enterprise and Scrum book, when describing adding Technical Debt as the mother of all problems.
Enough for now.
Couldn't agree more, Ron. Estimates are only useful if they all a PM to manage. A bad PM can use them for evil, but my experience is that a bad PM will be evil nomatter what. And, even if they are evil, we still owe them Visibility. There is a basic contract here. Management's side is to make good decisions, and our side is to make everything Visible in order to allow them to make good decisions. We need to live up to our side of the bargain even if they don't - I think that Scrum requires that of us.
On Mar 31, 2013, at 8:57 PM, Dan Rawsthorne <draws...@gmail.com> wrote:
Ok, back to basics. A story is a request for something that provides value. So there are three things involved here: the effort to build that something, the something itself, and the value it provides. The something has size, even if it's hard to measure or even grok.
You appear to be assuming that there is a thing called size, which you'll then use to prove that there is a thing called size.
For example, we're usually talking about functionality, right? So, the story is asking for a given functional test to pass that doesn't already. If nothing else, the size of the something is defined by that functional test. This passes, and it didn't before... functionality increased. Now, people doing functional sizing do it in many different ways. We know there is a size, but we don't agree on the units, or the method for sizing, or whatever. What is cool is that an estimation game can be used to get a relative measure of the size, nomatter what we think it is. . The size is Small. it is Large, whatever. When we have an exemplar, the sizing becomes consistent, and the team gets better at it. This thing is Small, this one is Large.�
Size. What is size? That's the question. I think you're trying to disguise the fact that you're trying to estimate TIME, the time to get the thing done.
Clearly you don't mean the memory imprint or the amount of storage for the source code ...
Now, if we have sizing, the hope is that the Effort expended on that something is proportional to the size with some relatively constant ratio. It won't be, of course, if environmental variables like the Team's Ability, or Technical Debt, or Organizational Noise, are changing. Then the amount of Effort it wakes will change. This is a good thing, as it makes the Environmental Variables externally visible... just sayin'... I discussed this in Chapter 3.7 in my book, which some Ron Jeffries guy said was "the best scrum book I have seen"... and I know that these fights we keep having are making the next book even better. Thanks for that :)
Ah. Size is "Effort". So you mean by size "how hard people work"? No, you're talking about time to do it. Why not just say that? If that's not it, why not say what it is.
Now, about those units. What units do we use to measure a pile of rocks? Count, volume measurements, mass, whatever. It doesn't really matter. What matters is that we learn to do consistent estimations that prove to be useful to us.
I'm not much into rocks. However, I am into software � could we talk about that?
Now, for a thought experiment to show that StoryPoints being a relative measure of Effort is not useful�
Wait wait wait. You have just said that "Size is (proportional to) Effort". And now you are saying that it's not useful?
Assume we have a team that makes completely accurate and precise estimates of relative effort. In other words, they estimate Size(Story) = Cx(Actual Effort it takes), where C is some constant. Then Velocity = (Sum(Size(Done Story))) = (Cx(Sum(Actual Effort for Done Story))) = Cx(Effort Expended in the Sprint), which is essentially constant, assuming a constant team working at a Sustainable Pace. In other words, Velocity always settles down because Teams get better at estimating. Unfortunately, the resulting Velocity is not a useful thing to people trying to make predictions of release dates, or manage the project.
Why is it not useful? Here are a couple of examples.
1. If a Team gets better, Velocity stays the same - the Team's sizing estimates adapt to the fact stories are getting easier. More gets done, but we don't know how much more. I call this the Alan Atlas conundrum. He asked (on this forum I think) "How come if my team is getting better their Velocity isn't increasing?"
2. If Technical Debt starts eating up the Team, the Velocity stays the same - the Team's sizing estimates adapt to the fact stories are getting harder. Less gets done, but we don't know how much more. BTW. this is the situation that causes Ken to define Velocity = #Features/$100K on pages 93-98 of the Enterprise and Scrum book, when describing adding Technical Debt as the mother of all problems.
Enough for now.
Ron JeffriesIf it is more than you need, it is waste. -- Andy Seidl
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I think visibility is what you call transparency. Visiblity means that my results are visible to you, you can see what I've done. I've made it visible to you.
Dan,
On 3/31/13 10:17 PM, Dan Rawsthorne wrote:
Everything tangible has size, Ron. It's a fundamental property of
"stuff", right? and functionality is tangible, we can determine when we
have more or less of it. and the phrase "more or less" implies a notion
of size.
What is /tangible/ about software that's not yet written?
�- George
No, size is not effort.� Effort is spent to get stuff. Stuff has size.
If we're lucky, the effort spent is proportional to size of what we got.
that's what makes velocity useful.
Now, about those units. What units do we use to measure a pile of
rocks? Count, volume measurements, mass, whatever. It doesn't really
matter. What matters is that we learn to do consistent estimations
that prove to be useful to us.
I'm not much into rocks. However, I am into software � could we talk
about that?
Probably not. Because I'd ask "how do you measure the size of a piece of
software? What is the stuff that provided value to users? and how do we
measure how much of it we have? We know that our regression test suite
tells us how much of our stuff is working,
Now, for a thought experiment to show that StoryPoints being a
relative measure of Effort is not useful�
The size of the Project is independent of Teams. The cost of the Project is Team dependent. The three assumptions I gave are independent, and they need to be in order to manage the project effectively. All standard Project Management, btw, even though most people calling themselves project managers don't have a clue. Pity... we can hope all they need is education. I guess if we can believe we can turn Teams into scrum teams, we should be able to believe we can turn project managers into proper project managers.
Examples of Assumptions (original baselines):
- this Project is worth XX StoryPoints (this requires SPs that are about size, not effort)
- a StoryPoint will take HH Hours on average
- an Hour will cost DD Dollars on average
Dan,
On Mar 29, 2013, at 11:46 AM, Dan Rawsthorne <draws...@gmail.com> wrote:
The size of the Project is independent of Teams. The cost of the Project is Team dependent. The three assumptions I gave are independent, and they need to be in order to manage the project effectively. All standard Project Management, btw, even though most people calling themselves project managers don't have a clue. Pity... we can hope all they need is education. I guess if we can believe we can turn Teams into scrum teams, we should be able to believe we can turn project managers into proper project managers.
The aforementioned assumptions were:
Examples of Assumptions (original baselines):
- this Project is worth XX StoryPoints (this requires SPs that are about size, not effort)
- a StoryPoint will take HH Hours on average
- an Hour will cost DD Dollars on average
Note that "size" is still undefined. So is "effort". We can guess from your statement that size and effort are not strongly correlated, or either would do.
We can guess from these assumptions what the PM (ptooie) is thinking. He's planning to conclude that the time for the project is about HH*XX hours and about DD*XX dollars.
I think we can probably agree closely enough that given hours we can compute cost using dollars per hour. Even if not, it's separate from the calculation of hours for the project.
We wish to be able to say Project Hours PH approximately equals the number of "story points" in the project times the average number of hours for a story point.
I think we can probably agree as well that for this to work, the variance around the story point to hours mapping has to be small. This is probably what we mean by "standardizing" or "normalizing" story points.
Now then. Each team has its own way of computing story points. They are not necessarily linear. They are not even necessarily numeric. S, M, L, XL is a not uncommon way of doing it. I have not seen a team using AA, A, B, C D, DD, but they may be out there. It doesn't matter.
We can observe the cycle time for each team. We have reason to do so as well. We can therefore come up with a table of their average performance, say:
S: 1 dayM: 2 daysL: 5 daysXL: 13 days
As PM (blargh) we want to be able to add all these things up, subject to a number of caveats about what adding them up can and cannot tell us. We'll touch on those below, time permitting.
With the wave of a hand, this very hand, we decide that PMSP (Project Manager (gack) Story Points) have the convenient property that HH (hours per PMSP) is 1. It follows that for the team above,
S is 1 PMSPM is 2 PMSPL is 5 PMSPXL is 13 PMSP
We look at their backlog, all nicely estimated in t-shirt sizes and trivially convert it to PMSP. If their backlog contains epics, which it bloody well should, we can ask them to estimate it in their standard way, as Wouter described, only with multiple sizes instead of the ideal all-sliced-down-to-standard-size approach that he used.
To the extent that standardizing/normalizing story points works, this also works, and avoids all the hassle of having the teams change what they are doing. Nicely isolates this to the office of the PM (hawwwk).
Note that PMSP meets the requirement of being independent of team, TO THE EXTENT THAT ANY NUMBER CAN. Previous emphasis exists because story points are ENTIRELY team dependent. They are not even well-ordered across teams. That is, if team A thinks that S1 < S2 < S3, team B may think that S2 < S3 < S1. And they may both be right.
We cannot hand stories between teams and preserve the ordering. We cannot remove people from teams and preserve the ordering. We quite likely cannot even add people to a team and preserve ordering.
All that notwithstanding, there is no need to ask teams to estimate in any way other than the one they want to use, because it is literally trivial for anyone who wants to see the big picture to convert to whatever standard form they want. For extra credit, someone should build a very expensive Agile PM (rork) app to do this.
HOWEVER, this is still the wrong thing to do when we look at the risks of doing it.
First, it focuses attention on completion of "everything", and is likely to focus attention on why team B can't do as many t-shirts as team A. It's possible that some company somewhere would not ask this question, but I've never encountered it.
Second, and more important, the whole bloody point of Agile, and Scrum as an instance of Agile, is to steer the project to success by treating the development process as a machine for producing Features/Time, and choosing what to do based on the time available. Basically one creates a ready-to-ship product that always has the best possible capability for today's date, and ships it when "best possible" is "functional enough".
Third, and most important, focus on completion from a list broken down into elements that we can add up eliminate all the creativity that comes from frequent interaction between business and development, solving problems rather than just cranking out predetermined solutions.
So: if you're going to do it, do it at the PM (blech) level and keep it away from the teams, because it would be wasteful to do otherwise. And better yet, don't do it, because whether you think you want it or not, it's not the best thing to do.
www.XProgramming.com
Ron JeffriesWisdom begins when we learn the difference between "that makes no sense" and "I don't understand". -- Mary Doria Russell
What is this role of PM that Dan writes about, Ron (blechs) about and what the team really should be doing... Delivering.
All of this estimation talk seems like fantasy land and long term planning for some outside stakeholder to make the power points look good.
Here's the thing. In that world of power points and Gantt charts people preparing them will lie anyway. I mean present what the boss wants to hear.
So.
My recommendation with teams is do some rough estimations and then Deliver deliver deliver.
The conversation changes when your customers and end users can do Something besides approving Gantt charts and slick PowerPoint presentations.
Deliver. Deliver. Deliver.
Mike Vizdos
Implementingscrum.com
Well, we hope that Size and Effort are correlated, because this is the basis for almost all planning.
There is not a StoryPoint to Effort mapping, it is derived. We have actual effort to work with, it is no derived from StoryPoints.
That's like saying the number of fence posts in a fence is a function of how much you paid for it. Finding the 'right' size mapping that correlates with effort (and is not, itself, effort) is the whole idea behind the size we're discussing here. For example, our experience with object-orientation has convinced us that SLOC is NOT a good size measure for program management purposes - a better one seems to be total methods and properties.
Hi Wouter …Yes … reminds me of something we have said when we were there … :)On Mar 31, 2013, at 6:46 PM, Wouter Lagerweij <wou...@lagerweij.com> wrote:In my current project, we hadn't done estimation at all for the first 6 months. We had a rule that a user story was small enough to be completely done in about 2-3 days. That worked well enough. Often they still wouldn't be done in that time, but usually it was close enough.
Recently the project went into another phase, for which we wanted a little more idea of how far we still had to go. We held a few sizing sessions, where all four teams were present, planned functionality was discussed, and then each team did a silent grouping of the features/epics identified into three groups: small (<5 stories), medium (5 to 10 stories), large (10 to 15 stories). Anything bigger or unclear was put into 'parked' to have a more detailed look at later. We then did a central 'merge' of each team's sizing, where too much of a difference got a story parked, and adjacent sizing got the larger one selected.In a way, this works around some of the discussion here. Stories don't have a size in story points, but they do have a grounding in (cycle) time. That grounding is a maximum only, of course, but since they're supposed to be small, that doesn't really matter.The t-shirt size estimates have a built-in uncertainty, but in this process they are agreed upon by all teams. We could even track how many stories each feature turns out to really have, though I have my doubts about the value of that.What do you think of this construction? Bad thing would be that it's a (disguised) estimation in time. Good thing might be that it allows for a common idea of the amount of work to be done. I'd be interested in view on how this will bite me in the... :-)I would imagine it will produce as good a result as one can get. There are probably quite a few algorithms that would do this, and since the guesses were made by people with actual experience, they'll be pretty good.My concerns -- as I'm sure you know -- are not so much with the likelihood of inaccuracy as with the use of the estimates, whether they are good or not so good.The smaller concern is that management will use the figures as promises, leading to pressure to get done "on time", leading to lower quality, higher defect rates, dogs and cats living together, and so on. I think you know how to avoid those things pretty well, though there is always danger.
My larger concern is that this kind of approach focuses on "getting it all done". The issue is in the middle: "it all". The second greatest power of an Agile project is not in getting things done, but in choosing what to get done … and what not to do at all. I am concerned that once one has this list of "it all", the focus turns to grinding it all out.
The greatest power of an Agile project -- of course -- is using the full creativity of the whole team to solve the problem rather than to complete the backlog. The PO and team consider the problem, and jointly work out truly creative solutions to the problem. These solutions will look like the backlog epics but not like detailed backlog items.It sounds as if you've left both these options open, in that you've not actually created the detailed backlog items … just guessed "how many" stories they might be.
So as a way to estimate -- which sometimes one does want to do -- this seems to me to be a fairly safe one. My overall concern isn't the same as some people, who think estimation isn't possible. I know it's possible. I just think it is not safe, and while I wouldn't hesitate to do it if I had to, I don't think it's a good tool to put in the hands of average and below-average teams.Of course all the teams represented here are above average … :)
Wow, guess that teaches me to go on Easter Vacation.I have read through all these responses, and quite honestly, several of these things all go through my mind as well, however I could never get to these levels.I don't think its good enough of a development shop to say "We are working hard, see everything we have done?". I developed for 20 years before I moved to Dev Manager and now to ScrumMaster. I believe I see both sides of this story, though I didn't think of everything in this thread, thanks to my friends for bringing up all the sides.I believe we owe more than that to our management team, and even our product owner and project manager and anyone else that is looking for information. Having a team with no sense of commitment sounds broken to me, agile, waterfall or any other cool word we can come up with.
So finding this balance, is the purpose of my admittedly awkward original post. I can't tell you what I want to compare, and I can't tell you what I want, because I don't know yet. Maybe it is a solution looking for a problem. What I do know, is that having multiple teams doing different development styles on different projects is impossible to go through in a meeting of people who care.Standardizing on TShirt sizes, with no set rules gets us somewhere. I am not sure where, but we could certainly derive cycle times from each size. I already started running these numbers across teams, and I find results that make no sense. I show a, way to similar, cycle time for a 1 point story and a 3 point story. So we can start to see that no matter the story size, it takes the same amount of time. So I can start to look at QA cycles or merging issues perhaps.
After typing some, I feel I am trying to find my way down a stream. I don't know whats at the end (hopefully not waterfall (pun intended)). But if transparency is good, then multiple teams showing congruent transparency seems good too, right?I am not dismissing anything in this thread, and I plan to reread it through again, because so many great points were made in here. Also, not sure who said it, but the whole purpose of this is to NOT LIE in the status meeting.I appreciate all the input, and would love more actually, as long as we keep it civil, well civil enough for the internet at least.
Also, not sure who said it, but the whole purpose of this is to NOT LIE in the status meeting.
As we see in the ISO docs on "Functional Size", no one agrees on how to do it. I believe this is primarily because there is no way to do it that actually works, but that's just my theory.
Pick a date.� Pick a budget to fund the team(s) to that date.� Prioritize the scope (sorry... it's ALL not a priority one -- if it is perceived as the "real world" case then there is a different conversation altogether).Nothing good will come out of standardizing a story point.Maybe do the "5 Whys" to see what people really need out of what they are asking.[getting a bag of popcorn for this the Dan and Ron show on this topic...]Overall though... um... DO NOT compare points between teams.
On Mar 29, 2013, at 11:46 AM, Dan Rawsthorne <draws...@gmail.com> wrote:
What are the units of "size"?�The size of the Project is independent of Teams. The cost of the Project is Team dependent.�
Ron JeffriesIf another does not intend offense, it is wrong for me to seek it;if another does indeed intend offense, it is foolish for me to permit it.� -- Kelly Easterley
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I don't think you can get a common understanding of what a '2' point story is over a group of 50 or people.
Cheers
Mark
Agree that there should be some kind of standardization - and that the teams should be the ones that figure what the standard is. Reason:A - forecast (pointed out)B - for reporting (especially Agile Earned value management)C - for change - for example if the business wants to add features/change their mind great, but finance needs to understand the financial impact thereforeD - eventually get to a "price per story point" thereforeE - giving business and IT a means to understand the financial impact and additional resources/costs requiredF - allow for charge backs within the company (and externally?) for changes and other phases to the projects andG - Planning - for example project is 1000 SP, team velocity is 100/sprint, sprint length is 1 month - can do the project in 10 months.Not really interested in bench marking one team against another, and I am not sure this would make sense. I would like to accomplish this without "butting into" the good work the feature teams are doing, but this would make the life of the PMT much easier.Thanks
On Thursday, March 28, 2013 8:00:45 PM UTC+1, Guarino wrote:We have approx 15 development teams, some using Kanban, some using Scrum.Recently we have tried to implement a monthly "Dev Ops" meeting, where teams have approx 5-10 mins to update everyone what is going on. What projects, what they learned from retros, stating impediments and how they were addressed.One of the things we show in this meeting is a team wide, then location wide cycle time report.Since this meeting is a coming together of dev, some managers, some product managers, etc, the concepts of story points and burndowns can be a bit burdensome, so that is why we went with cycle time.So now, glaringly, the differences in team points has floated to the top of something we "might" want to address.I am not sure what to ask, so bare with me a bit. Is there merit in getting all the teams to agree what a 5pt story is? How do you go about this without saying, "A 5pt story is like 2-3 days". Most of the conversations end up at this point, and get days assigned to points. I am trying to stay clear of that, but it seems impossible.We discussed tshirt sizes, each team would agree that a medium shirt is the "typical" story for that team. Does that have any merit, never defining how long or how many "story points" the shirt size is worth.I guess I am looking for ideas, thoughts why it would be good and bad, any information that would help me bring these thoughts to conclusion. The "business" is skeptical that one teams 13 points is 4 days and another teams is 2 weeks. Is there anywhere that common ground can be found? Anyone tackle this sort of thing with success?Again, this is more of a brainstorming, nobody is mandating it, but does seem in the best interest to find a way that teams can be transparent without showing a burndown chart.Ideas?Thanks
B - for reporting (especially Agile Earned value management)
C - for change - for example if the business wants to add features/change their mind great, but finance needs to understand the financial impact therefore
D - eventually get to a "price per story point" therefore
E - giving business and IT a means to understand the financial impact and additional resources/costs required
F - allow for charge backs within the company (and externally?) for changes and other phases to the projects and
G - Planning - for example project is 1000 SP, team velocity is 100/sprint, sprint length is 1 month - can do the project in 10 months.
I don't think you can get a common understanding of what a '2' point story is over a group of 50 or people.
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Good questions. good challenge. I'm finalizing my response in time for the Scrum Gathering, since that's what I'm talking about there.