Fwd: Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook 2023 now available
Jean Boucher
From: Engels, Prof. Dr. Anita <Anita....@uni-hamburg.de>
Date: Thu, Feb 2, 2023 at 11:50 AM
Subject: Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook 2023 now available
To: <EA...@jiscmail.ac.uk>
Dear colleagues,
We are delighted to announce the publication of the 2023 Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook: The plausibility of a 1.5°C limit to global warming – Social drivers and physical processes.
We assessed the dynamics of 10 social drivers and 6 physical processes and addressed the overarching question: What affects the plausibility of attaining the Paris Agreement temperature goals?
These are our key findings:
Meeting the 1.5°C Paris Agreement temperature goal is not plausible. Limiting the global temperature rise to well below 2°C can become plausible if ambition, implementation, and knowledge gaps are closed.
None of the ten social drivers support deep decarbonization by 2050. The drivers corporate responses and consumption patterns continue to undermine the pathways to decarbonization, let alone deep decarbonization. The physical processes permafrost thaw, AMOC instability, and Amazon Forest dieback can moderately inhibit the plausibility of attaining the Paris Agreement temperature goals. The social driver assessments demonstrate that human agency has a large potential to shape the way climate futures will evolve. However, human agency is strongly shaped by injustices and social inequalities, which inhibit social dynamics toward deep decarbonization by 2050. Key concepts and guiding principles toward a Sustainable Adaptation Plausibility Framework are established.
Download the Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook 2023 (accessible PDF, 25 MB)
Please find further information, figures and fact sheets on the Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook 2023 Website.
We wish you a pleasant reading and look forward to hearing from you!
Prof. Dr. Anita Engels
Chair DFG EXC 2037
„Climate, Climatic Change, and Society (CLICCS)“
https://www.cliccs.uni-hamburg.de/
Universität Hamburg; Allende-Platz 1, Raum 426
+49 (0) 40-42838-3832; Twitter: @Engels_Klima
- Engels, Anita; Jochem Marotzke; Eduardo Gonçalves Gresse; Andrés López-Rivera; Anna Pagnone; Jan Wilkens (eds.) (2023) Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook 2023. The plausibility of a 1.5°C limit to global warming—Social drivers and physical processes. Cluster of Excellence Climate, Climatic Change, and Society (CLICCS). Hamburg, German
- Feddersen, Hauke; Engels, Anita (2022) Klimaschutz in ländlichen Räumen – Klimapolitische Handlungsoptionen von (Land-)Kreisen. In: ZfU –Zeitschrift für Umweltpolitik & Umweltrecht 2022, 2, 179-209.
- Pohlmann, Angela; Walz, Kerstin; Engels, Anita; Aykut, Stefan C.; Altstaedt, Sören; Colell, Arwen; Dietrich, Udo; Feddersen, Hauke; Friedrich, Annabarbara; Klenke, Jan; Krieger, Franziska; Schenuit, Felix; Datchoua-Tirvaudey, Alvine; Schulz, Markus; Zengerling, Cathrin (2021): It’s not enough to be right! The climate crisis, power and the climate movement. In: GAIA 30/4: 231-236.
- Kohler, Martin, Anita Engels, Ana Paulo Koury, Cathrin Zengerling 2021: Thinking Urban Transformation through Elsewhere: A Conversation between Real-World Labs in São Paulo and Hamburg on Governance and Practical Action. In: Sustainability, Vol. 13, Issue 22, 23 pages, https://doi.org/10.3390/su132212811
- Chiapello, Eve/Anita Engels 2021: The fabrication of environmental intangibles as a questionable response to environmental problems. Journal of Cultural Economy, 6/4, 1-16.
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Rees, William E.
"Limiting
the global temperature rise to well below 2°C can become plausible if ambition, implementation, and knowledge gaps are closed."
This is another way of saying that limiting warming to well below 2C° is highly improbable.
Bill
Sent: Thursday, February 2, 2023 7:43:30 AM
To: ENVI...@LISTSERV.NEU.EDU; Anthropology & Environment Society Discussion; SCORAI Group
Subject: [SCORAI] Fwd: Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook 2023 now available
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Richard Rosen
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