Communicating Tipping points

[Iain Black]

Hello hive mind,

I've just finished reviewing a new state of Tipping points review led by Tim Lenton at the University of Exeter, aimed at policy and decision makers.  It is a hugely impressive and scary review that also explores how to cascade positive social tippling points.

 My main comment was, surprisingly to me at least, 'so what?'  Why should policy makers pay attention to tipping points beyond the reasons they currently paying attention to climate change and interlinked crises?   How do they benefit from knowing more about tipping point compared to what we know about climate change and the actions we need to take to avoid moving toward catastrophe?  

 The answer cannot be because ‘things are a lot worse than you thought’ but has to incorporate this.  Adding more fear and doom isn't helpful. Earth systems tipping points are highly complex, highly uncertain, interlinked across scales and foretells unknowable new stable systems states that takes the ability to control our future (or the illusion we can) from our hands.  So what should the messages be If the intention is to motivate policy makers to fast enough, effective action at scale? what should we be saying to them about tipping points?

 

Would love to hear your thoughts.

Iain Black

Professor of Sustainable Consumption
University of Strathclyde Business School
Glasgow G4 0QU
Email: Iain....@Strath.ac.uk

[Richard Rosen]

Iain, I think that one major reason for focusing on tipping points specifically, as part of discussion of the more slow and continuous aspects of the evolution of climate change is because tipping points inherently are changes that are more sudden and of substantial magnitude in impacts.  Therefore, it is even more important to be able to state when any particular tipping might occur in the near future in order to immediately make extra efforts of relevant types to put the brakes on and try to prevent it if that is possible.

--- Rich Rosen

--
- SCORAI website: https://scorai.net
- Join SCORAI: https://scorai.net/join
- Submit an item to next newsletter: lizb....@gmail.com
- Submit a new blog post: hbr...@clarku.edu
---
You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "SCORAI" group.
To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an email to scorai+un...@googlegroups.com.
To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/scorai/f963a5a4-ddb9-4464-865f-b4bcd31051d3n%40googlegroups.com.

[Joe Zammit-Lucia]

Dear Iain

Thank you for your email and very pertinent questions. I agree that more doom and gloom and catastrophic scenarios are not going to get us far enough - or maybe very far at all. 

There is a further issue that the whole concept of planetary boundaries and tipping points could be relevant if we had some kind of global governance. But we don’t. And won’t. (If anything the prospects of global cooperation are rapidly shrinking). 

Translating the planetary boundary idea to functioning political units (most usually nation states) over which policy makers have some kind of control is challenging (maybe impossible) to do. Even more difficult is translating it to individual behaviour. 

If I decide to fly round the world tomorrow - or not - how does that impact planetary boundaries? Is my flight the thing that’s going to take us beyond the tipping point? It’s too small an individual action to be impacted by talk of planetary boundaries. 

If my nation ties itself in knots to bring down emissions, what impact does that have on planetary boundaries if China keeps pumping out emissions at ever increasing scale? 

I suggest that the planetary boundary discussion is broadly useful to have out there. But the likelihood of successfully translating it directly to actual decision making on the ground is, in my view, marginal. 

After all, that kind of talk is hardly new. It’s been around for decades. And look where we are. Yet we keep on with the same stuff over and over and somehow expect different results. It’s a bit like the old joke that if someone who doesn’t speak your language can’t understand what you’re saying just speak more slowly and more loudly. 

Best

Joe

Dr Joe Zammit-Lucia

+44 7398 353 404

jo...@me.com

newpoliticalcapitalism.com I get on Amazon

[Rees, William E.]

Two short addendums to Rich's point: 

1) Most people, including policy wonks,  tend to think in terms of slow, continuous reversible change -- if we go too far, then all we have to do is back off.  However, if we cross a 'tipping point' not only are changes 'sudden and substantial' but they may also be irreversible on any  meaningful time scale.  Backing off is no longer effective.

2) We have to stop thinking simplistically.  'Climate change' or 'global heating' is an important issue but only one symptom of overshoot (along with plunging biodiversity, fisheries depletion, land/soil degradation, ocean acidification, feminization of males of many species, pollution of everything, etc., etc.).  There are too many people consuming and polluting too much. Treating the climate symptom will not only not fix the climate (for one thing, producing all the acceptable 'fixes' from wind turbines and solar panels to EVs are heavily dependent on fossil fuels), it simply enables 'business-as-usual-by-alternative-means' and therefore exacerbates overshoot. This increases the threat of crossing other systemic tipping points. 

Bill

---

From: sco...@googlegroups.com <sco...@googlegroups.com> on behalf of Richard Rosen <richard...@gmail.com>
Sent: Monday, September 18, 2023 6:00:51 AM
To: iainruss...@gmail.com
Cc: SCORAI
Subject: Re: [SCORAI] Communicating Tipping points

 

[CAUTION: Non-UBC Email]

To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/scorai/CAMZghTZuQPJrbii2gLgBrygnPEbaBV1qHdyQ7QCKwa5AbWo5_w%40mail.gmail.com.

[Never, Babette]

Hi Iaiin,

 

very relevant question, thank you.

 

At our think tank (advising the German Ministry for development cooepration), we try to focus on positive storylines ie stress remaining opportunities and co-benefits – which ideally fit with some of the policymakers’ or bureaucrats interests, without sugarcoating the negative facts. Additionally, reducing complexity and giving policymakers the feeling that it’s useful to focus on some pieces of the puzzle even if one feels like despairing given the new tipping point research results also helps… this approach is more or less in line with what behavioural sciences tell us about emotions and information processing in the brain.

 

Personally, I would like to see more research critically assessing the social tipping points and empirically pinpointing the factors, actors etc driving them. The latest IPCC report says that 17-25% of change in consumer behaviour can tip whole markets. The research (references) behind that statement is a bit shaky in my opinion and definitely needs more work…

 

Best regards,

Babette

 

 

Dr. Babette Never

Senior Researcher

Programme Transformation of Economic and Social Systems

 

German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)

Tulpenfeld 6

53113 Bonn, Germany

P: +49 228 94 927-238

F: +49 228 94 927-130

E: babett...@idos-research.de

http://www.idos-research.de/babette-never/

 

Recent publications:

 

Never, Babette et al (2022): Energy saving behaviours of middle class households in Ghana, Peru and the Philippines. Energy for Sustainable Development 68, 170-181. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esd.2022.03.003

 

Never, Babette / Albert, Jose R. (2021): Unmasking the middle class in the Philippines: aspirations, lifestyles, and prospects for sustainable consumption. Asian Studies Review 45 (4), 594-614. https://doi.org/10.1080/10357823.2021.1912709

 

 

German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS) / Deutsches Institut für Entwicklung und Nachhaltigkeit gGmbH; Sitz der Gesellschaft Bonn / Registered office Bonn, Germany; Registergericht / Registered at Amtsgericht Bonn, Germany; Eintragungs-Nr. / Registration no. HRB 8741; Vorsitzender des Kuratoriums / Chairman of the Supervisory Board: Jochen Flasbarth (Staatssekretär / State Secretary); Geschäftsführung / Management Board: Prof. Dr. Anna-Katharina Hornidge (Direktorin / Director); Leitweg-ID für E-Rechnungen / for E-invoices: 992-01497-46; USt-IdNr. / VAT ID DE210856958

--
- SCORAI website: https://scorai.net