Value Of Information in 3D seismic surveys over Oil & Gas exploration prospects

[Alan Beeston]

Hi,

I am working on a paper about the Value of Information of 3D seismic
surveys over Oil and Gas exploration prospects using Decision
Analysis techinques.

I understand how to apply Bayes theorem, flipping a decision tree
given estimates of reliability of the information. However with 3D
seismic information there remains the issue of how to assess the
relaibility of the information. Test trails using Random sampling
don't seem to apply in this field. Bench mark data on histoircal well
success and failure rates provide some indications of reliability.

However these suffer from being not statistically unbiased. They also
tell you nothing about prospects abandoned because seismic information
gave negative indication of the presence of a trap or reservoir.

This leave subjective assessment of reliability probabilities for use
in Bayes Theorem.

I am interested in hearing from anyone who has done estiamtes of the
Value Of Information from 3D seismic surveys over oil and Gas
exploration prospects.

How did you deal with the imperfect seismic information?
How did you determine how relaible the information was?
Are there any good journal articles or books on this subject other
than Newendorp's book?

regards

Alan Beeston
al...@ihug.co.nz
alan.b...@fce.co.nz