Follow up of "Find the Bottom".
Jonathan
"Jonathan" <Ho...@Again.net> wrote in message
news:yYOdnVDutNwHIIDW...@giganews.com...
Ticker NLST today bounced for almost 20%, yeilding what would
have been a down payment on a modest house, but I sold it
.....yesterday.
A really beautiful pattern. With a transient length of over 20
days with no sign of returning to the previous equilibrium
any time soon. Transient length is the time between the initial
disturbance that is driving the system far from equilibrium, and
the time one can no longer tell the disturbance happened.
The greater the complexity/uncertainty, the longer the transient
length, and greater volatility in general. With emergent patterns
of all kinds showing up when far from equilibrium.
Most of these patterns are best seen in a 20 day chart, which few
places provide. Enter the ticker and in the drop down box on the right
click 'snap chart'. And then the 10 day option for this ticker, and
20 day for most others. The chart length should match the
transient length, or start a couple days before the disturbance.
That's how to keep the pattern scale independent, basing the
chart time period on transient length. This pattern works at
any scale from days to years.
http://www.prophet.net/analyze/sc.jsp?symbol=NLST
So I'm sticking to yesterday's purchase, PLX, for another day.
While keeping a close eye on NLST. Although in general
it's best to move on if you missed the bounce at the bottom.
>
> "Jonathan" <Ho...@Again.net> wrote in message
> news:96Sdneqak-8PW4bW...@giganews.com...
>
>
> So I took the morning bounce of NLST at $4.75 for yet
> another ho-hum 5%. If/when NLST drops below $4 I may
> revisit it. Meanwhile doing a screen at lunch I bought
> 5000 of PLX at $8.5. Looking to shoot the gap back
> up to $9 or so.
>
>
>>
>> "Jonathan" <Ho...@Again.net> wrote in message
>> news:RYydneAGl59s7oXW...@giganews.com...
>>>
>>
>>
>>
>> NLST never dropped below $4, so very late Friday I bought
>> 8500 shares at $4.53. Looking to ride an opening bounce
>> on Monday morning as far as I can. Then jump out and wait
>> for the volatility to provide another opportunity.
>>
>> We'll see.
>>
>>
>>
>>> "Jonathan" <Ho...@Again.net> wrote in message
>>> news:ZY2dnbBx7LctnYrW...@giganews.com...
>>>>
>>>> "Jonathan" <Ho...@Again.net> wrote in message
>>>> news:ib6dneAdwcOacojW...@giganews.com...
>>>
>>>
>>> This ticker, ABIO, just had too little volume, otherwise I'd hang on
>>> and see what happens next week. So I sold early at $2.90 for
>>> another modest 5%. Both of these patterns have been rather
>>> weak. The first, BCRX, had the final fall take place during
>>> Thanksgiving week which seemed to slow it's fall and cause an
>>> early and weak bounce. Plus the huge gap below probably has
>>> drawn in a lot of short selling.
>>>
>>> So I screened and found this pattern, NLST. Higher volume
>>> and much higher volatility. With huge gaps above and below
>>> inviting surges in volume.
>>> http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=nlst&sid=0&o_symb=nlst&freq=7&time=3
>>>
>>> Looking for a large increase in volume that shows the trend reversal
>>> somewhere around $3.75. A spike in volume is the better indicator
>>> than any particular price with this kind of potential volatility.
>>> Wait and watch for an obvious entry point, don't predict.
>>>
>>> This one looks rather exciting, nice buzz about it with the first ever
>>> 16gb server memory chip. And a lawsuit thrown in to further increase
>>> uncertainty. Uncertainty equals volatility. Volatility equals opportunity.
>>>
>>> Sure wish I bought in last month, from 75 cents to $7.50 in two weeks.
>>> Gotta love this world, we live in the best times ever.
>>>
>>>
>>>
>>> s
>>>
>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Early market trading showed resistance around $8.50, so I sold
>>>> first thing at $8.43. Rather dissapointing, just under 5% return in
>>>> the five hours or so I held the stock, for a below average return of
>>>> about 1% per hour.
>>>>
>>>> I did a screen and found ticker ABIO ripe and ready.
>>>>
>>>> http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=abio&sid=0&o_symb=abio&freq=7&time=18
>>>>
>>>> A 40% fall puts the bottom at about $2.7. This is a low volume ticker
>>>> so I bought only 5000 shares early this morning at an ave. of $2.76.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>
>>>>> Last Monday, when ticker BCRX was at about $9 I predicted it would
>>>>> bottom out at $7.5. Today it bounced off $8 twice ( a nice round number)
>>>>> so I bought 5000 shares at an average of $8.05 before lunch. I'm nervous
>>>>> it might still fall as low as $7.5 before bouncing. But one always looks
>>>>> for the /spike in volume/ at the bottom to show the transition from
>>>>> selling to buying. The late spike in volume gives me reasonable
>>>>> confidence
>>>>> now that the bottom will be $8.
>>>>>
>>>>> What a pretty pattern/transient! Driven by uncertainty. A system being
>>>>> pushed
>>>>> far from equilibrium by the uncertainty of what the price should become
>>>>> after
>>>>> the dilution. I'm tying to demonstrate the /benefits/ of learning how to
>>>>> quantify ...uncertainty, and it's profound effects on real world complex
>>>>> dynamic systems.
>>>>> http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=bcrx&sid=0&o_symb=bcrx&freq=7&time=18
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> Looking for a ten percent gain by the end of the week. Let's see.
>>>>> Already up a grand. With any luck Wednesday morning might
>>>>> see a large gap up first thing.
>>>>>
>>>>> Can't wait!
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> "Jonathan" <Ho...@Again.net> wrote in message news:...
>>>>> (Monday, November 23, 2009 7:06 PM)
>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Take a look at this absolutely beautiful example of a
>>>>>> panic sell in progress.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/quickchart/quickchart.asp?symb=bcrx&sid=0&o_symb=bcrx&freq=7&time=18
>>>>>>
>>>>>> The transient (disturbance) clearly begins Tuesday morning
>>>>>> and the previous close was about $12.25. The transient
>>>>>> is a result of the news that this company just sold 5 million
>>>>>> shares to some big investor at a price of $9.75. A classic sell off
>>>>>> due to stock dilution. Notice how many people thought that
>>>>>> $9.75 was the bottom....oops...it kept on falling past the
>>>>>> /discounted price/ the /large investor/ was just given.
>>>>>> Typically large investors get a 20% or so discount for the
>>>>>> big buy.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> So, the big question is, where will the bottom be?
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Predicting the future of a real world complex dynamic system, comprised
>>>>>> of hundreds of investors, thousands of employees and dozens of
>>>>>> competitors is perhaps the hardest prediction to make of all
>>>>>>
>>>>>> And this particular system is also in the midst of a panic/chaos.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> How can we predict the future behavior of a complex dynamic system
>>>>>> whose internal working formulae are unknown? How can we predict
>>>>>> what most would consider a chaotic (panic) situation without any
>>>>>> internal detailed knowledge?
>>>>>>
>>>>>> It's easy! On a 2d chart a self organizing system is denoted by a scale
>>>>>> independent slope of -1, with a total fall of 50%. (Why is another post)
>>>>>> Adjusted for real world behavior. Which in this case means a very
>>>>>> reliable
>>>>>> 'false bottom' a bit more than halfway down, and a total fall of some
>>>>>> 40% as investors tend to anticipate and jump half-off gun.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> A 40% drop starting at $12.25 returns a bottom of about $7.35.
>>>>>> But investors also like round numbers.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> So I say the bottom will be $7.50.
>>>>>> With a quick bounce back to $8.50, which is where the transient ends.
>>>>>> And the system returns to it's normal behavior, whatever that is.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> Give it a couple of days, and we'll see.
>>>>>>
>>>>>>
>>>>>> s
>>>>>>
>>>>>
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>>>>
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>>>
>>>
>>
>>
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