Climatologists Baffled By Global Warming TimeOut
b,o.n.0.
Stagnating Temperatures Due To Reduced Solar Activity
19 Nov 2009
QUOTE: Latif, one of Germany's best-known climatologists, says that the
temperature curve has reached a plateau. "There can be no argument about
that," he says. "We have to face that fact."
QUOTE: According to calculations performed by a group of NASA scientists led
by David Rind, which were recently published in the journal Geophysical
Research Letters, this reduced solar activity is the most important cause of
stagnating global warming.
Global warming appears to have stalled. Climatologists are puzzled as to why
average global temperatures have stopped rising over the last 10 years. Some
attribute the trend to a lack of sunspots, while others explain it through
ocean currents.
At least the weather in Copenhagen is likely to be cooperating. The Danish
Meteorological Institute predicts that temperatures in December, when the
city will host the United N Climate Change Conference, will be one degree
above the long-term average.
Otherwise, however, not much is happening with global warming at the moment.
The Earth's average temperatures have stopped climbing since the beginning
of the millennium, and it even looks as though global warming could come to
a standstill this year.
Ironically, climate change appears to have stalled in the run-up to the
upcoming world summit in the Danish capital, where thousands of politicians,
bureaucrats, scientists, business leaders and environmental activists plan
to negotiate a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. Billions of euros are
at stake in the negotiations.
Reached a Plateau
The planet's temperature curve rose sharply for almost 30 years, as global
temperatures increased by an average of 0.7 �ｿｽC from the 1970s to the late
1990s. "At present, however, the warming is taking a break," confirms
meteorologist Mojib Latif of the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences in the
northern German city of Kiel.
Latif, one of Germany's best-known climatologists, says that the temperature
curve has reached a plateau. "There can be no argument about that," he says.
"We have to face that fact."
Even though the temperature standstill probably has no effect on the
long-term warming trend, it does raise doubts about the predictive value of
climate models, and it is also a political issue.
For months, climate change skeptics have been gloating over the findings on
their Internet forums. This has prompted many a climatologist to treat the
temperature data in public with a sense of shame, thereby damaging their own
credibility.
"It cannot be denied that this is one of the hottest issues in the
scientific community," says Jochem Marotzke, director of the Max Planck
Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg. "We don't really know why this
stagnation is taking place at this point."
Just a few weeks ago, Britain's Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and
Research added more fuel to the fire with its latest calculations of global
average temperatures. According to the Hadley figures, the world grew warmer
by 0.07 �ｿｽC from 1999 to 2008 and not by the 0.2 �ｿｽC assumed by the UN IPCC.
And, say the British experts, when their figure is adjusted for two
naturally occurring climate phenomena, El Ni�ｿｽo and La Ni�ｿｽa, the resulting
temperature trend is reduced to 0.0 degrees Celsius -- in other words, a
standstill.
The differences among individual regions of the world are considerable. In
the Arctic, for example, temperatures rose by almost 3�ｿｽC, which led to a
dramatic melting of sea ice.
At the same time, temperatures declined in large areas of North America, the
western Pacific and the Arabian Peninsula. Europe, including Germany,
remains slightly in positive warming territory.
Mixed Messages
But a few scientists simply refuse to believe the British calculations.
"Warming has continued in the last few years," says Stefan Rahmstorf of the
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). However, Rahmstorf is
more or less alone in his view. Hamburg Max Planck Institute scientist
Jochem Marotzke, on the other hand, says: "I hardly know any colleagues who
would deny that it hasn't gotten warmer in recent years."
The controversy sends confusing and mixed messages to the lay public.
Why is there such a vigorous debate over climate change, even though it
isn't getting warmer at the moment?
And how can it be that scientists cannot even arrive at a consensus on
changes in temperatures, even though temperatures are constantly being
measured?
The global temperature-monitoring network consists of 517 weather stations.
But each reading is only a tiny dot on the big world map, and it has to be
extrapolated to the entire region with the help of supercomputers.
Besides, there are still many blind spots, the largest being the Arctic,
where there are only about 20 measuring stations to cover a vast area.
Climatologists refer to the problem as the "Arctic hole."
The scientists at the Hadley Center simply used the global average value for
the hole, ignoring the fact that it has become significantly warmer in the
Arctic, says Rahmstorf.
But a NASA team from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York,
which does make the kinds of adjustments for the Arctic data that Rahmstorf
believes are necessary, arrives at a flat temperature curve for the last
five years that is similar to that of their British colleagues.
Marotzke and Leibniz Institute meteorologist Mojib Latif are even convinced
that the fuzzy computing done by Rahmstorf is counterproductive. "We have to
explain to the public that greenhouse gases will not cause temperatures to
keep rising from one record temperature to the next, but that they are still
subject to natural fluctuations," says Latif.
For this reason, he adds, it is dangerous to cite individual weather-related
occurrences, such as a drought in Mali or a hurricane, as proof positive
that climate change is already fully underway.
"Perhaps we suggested too strongly in the past that the development will
continue going up along a simple, straight line. In reality, phases of
stagnation or even cooling are completely normal," says Latif.
Part 2: The Difficulties of Predicting the Climate
Climatologists use their computer models to draw temperature curves that
continue well into the future.
They predict that the average global temperature will increase by about 3�ｿｽC
by the end of the century, unless humanity manages to drastically reduce
greenhouse gas emissions.
However, no one really knows what exactly the world climate will look like
in the not-so-distant future, that is, in 2015, 2030 or 2050.
This is because it is not just human influence but natural factors that
affect the Earth's climate.
For instance, currents in the world's oceans are subject to certain cycles,
as is solar activity. Major volcanic eruptions can also curb rising
temperatures in the medium term. The eruption of Mount Pinatubo in June
1991, for example, caused world temperatures to drop by an average of 0.5
�ｿｽC, thereby prolonging a cooler climate phase that had begun in the late
1980s.
But the Mount Pinatubo eruption happened too long ago to be related to the
current slowdown in global warming.
So what is behind this more recent phenomenon?
Weaker Solar Activity
The fact is that the sun is weakening slightly. Its radiation activity is
currently at a minimum, as evidenced by the small number of sunspots on its
surface.
According to calculations performed by a group of NASA scientists led by
David Rind, which were recently published in the journal Geophysical
Research Letters, this reduced solar activity is the most important cause of
stagnating global warming.
Latif, on the other hand, attributes the stagnation to so-called Pacific
decadal oscillation (PDO). This phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean allows a
larger volume of cold deep-sea water to rise to the surface at the equator.
According to Latif, this has a significant cooling effect on the Earth's
atmosphere.
With his team at the Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences, Latif has been
one of the first to develop a model to create medium-term prognoses for the
next five to 10 years. "We are slowly starting to attempt such models," says
Marotzke, who is also launching a major project in this area, funded by the
Federal Ministry for Research and Technology.
Despite their current findings, scientists agree that temperatures will
continue to rise in the long term. The big question is: When will it start
getting warmer again?
If the deep waters of the Pacific are, in fact, the most important factor
holding up global warming, climate change will remain at a standstill until
the middle of the next decade, says Latif.
But if the cooling trend is the result of reduced solar activity, things
could start getting warmer again much sooner. Based on past experience,
solar activity will likely increase again in the next few years.
Betting on Warmer Temperatures
The Hadley Center group expects warming to resume in the coming years. "That
resumption could come as a bit of a jolt," says Hadley climatologist Adam
Scaife, explaining that natural cyclical warming would then be augmented by
the warming effect caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.
While climatologists at conferences engage in passionate debates over when
temperatures will start rising again, global warming's next steps have also
become the subject of betting activity.
Climatologist Stefan Rahmstorf is so convinced that his predictions will be
correct in the end that he is willing to back up his conviction with a
?2,500 ($3,700) bet. "I will win," says Rahmstorf.
His adversary Latif turned down the bet, saying that the matter was too
serious for gambling. "We are scientists, not poker players."
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,662092,00.html
Warmest Regards
B0n oz
"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps
US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists
worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct
from natural variation."
Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville
Surfer
>
>QUOTE: According to calculations performed by a group of NASA scientists led
>by David Rind, which were recently published in the journal Geophysical
>Research Letters, this reduced solar activity is the most important cause of
>stagnating global warming.
>
Sure. Solar activity is cyclic. During a declining phase it can
temporarily work against the effect of AGW.
But if AGW did not exist, I would expect global temperatures to be
decreasing right now.
Instead we have new local records.
http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/bendigo-set-to-record-hottest-november/13087
Wednesday November 18, 2009 - 13:25 EDT
".......The Bureau of Meteorology says Bendigo is on track to record
its hottest November ever.
The daily average, so far this month, is about 4 degrees Celsius
hotter than the previous monthly record, set two years ago...."
http://www.theage.com.au/national/mercury-soars-after-brief-cool-change-20091119-io8a.html
November 19, 2009
".....Melbourne last night shattered the highest temperature for a
November night since records began, outstripping the previous record
set in 1901 by almost two degrees....."
http://www.portpirierecorder.com.au/news/local/news/business/record-heatwave/1682081.aspx
19 Nov, 2009 11:53 AM
"....Port Pirie has just sweltered through its longest November
heatwave on record.
For nine successive days from Friday, November 6, to Sunday, November
15, the maximum temperature has been above 35C, resulting in an
average of 40.1C.
This is an unheard of figure for November that is usually only reached
during scorchers in January or February...."
http://www.skynews.com.au/national/article.aspx?id=396042
Friday November 20, 2009
".....Adelaide's temperature reached 43C giving the city it hottest
November day on record.
The previous highest was 42.7C on November 30, 1962...."
o.n.0.b.
"Surfer" <n...@spam.net> wrote in message
news:slbcg59k69lel5bk5...@4ax.com...
> On Fri, 20 Nov 2009 16:01:59 +1100, "b,o.n.0." <q...@q.com> wrote:
>
>>
>>QUOTE: According to calculations performed by a group of NASA scientists
>>led
>>by David Rind, which were recently published in the journal Geophysical
>>Research Letters, this reduced solar activity is the most important cause
>>of
>>stagnating global warming.
>>
> Sure. Solar activity is cyclic. During a declining phase it can
> temporarily work against the effect of AGW.
>
> But if AGW did not exist, I would expect global temperatures to be
> decreasing right now.
>
Actually, they are decreasing ...
Reality Vs Whacko Warmies And Their Hopeless Climate Models
October 19 2009
Christopher Booker on the strange gap between what warmists think and what
the world actually does:
"Not many people in Britain were aware, I suspect, that 20 per cent of the
entire US was last week covered in snow, the greatest October snow cover the
country had known for years "
(for details see the Watts Up With That website).
"Similarly unseasonable snowfalls blanketed central Europe and the Alps. "
"Freak October snows caused traffic chaos in New Zealand. "
"Hundreds of Tibetan herdsmen had to be rescued when blizzards swept their
summer pastures weeks early. "
"This is now the third year running when there have been signs of an
abnormally cold winter across large parts of the world."
"Last year's October snowfalls in the US broke records which in some cases
had stood for over a century, prefacing one of America's coldest winters for
decades. "
"This summer's Arctic ice-melt stopped nearly 1 million square kilometres
short of its record low in 2007. "
"Around Antarctica this year's sea ice-melt was the lowest recorded since
satellite data began in 1979, leaving the ice 30 per cent above its 30-year
average. "
"What a startling contrast is provided by all these events in the real world
to the ever more surreal frenzy of the warmists as - with only weeks to go
before their doomed Copenhagen treaty conference in December - they make a
last desperate bid to keep climate change hysteria at fever pitch."
Wookoo
"o.n.0.b." <b...@wa.com> wrote in message news:4b075372$1...@dnews.tpgi.com.au...
>
>
>
>
> Christopher Booker on the strange gap between what warmists think and what
> the world actually does:
>
>
>
identical to talcum powder" and poses a "non-existent risk" to human health?
Wookoo
> the world actually does:
>
>
to support the belief that inhaling other people's smoke causes cancer
simply does not exist"?
Wookoo
> the world actually does:
>
>
Intelligent Design, maintaining that Darwinians "rest their case on nothing
more than blind faith and unexamined a priori assumptions"?
Avid Fan
I can't believe there are still global warming deniers out there.
Every time to turn on the news you hear about 200 year old record temp
here 200 year old record temp there,
I think there will still be deniers when the Blue mountains becomes
oceanfront property.
o.n.0.b.
"Avid Fan" <avid...@notvalidexample.net> wrote in message
news:qBaOm.56730$ze1....@news-server.bigpond.net.au...
Huh?
What "200 year old record temp"????
number6
> Surfer wrote:
> > On Fri, 20 Nov 2009 16:01:59 +1100, "b,o.n.0." <q...@q.com> wrote:
>
> >> QUOTE: According to calculations performed by a group of NASA scientists led
> >> by David Rind, which were recently published in the journal Geophysical
> >> Research Letters, this reduced solar activity is the most important cause of
> >> stagnating global warming.
>
> > Sure. Solar activity is cyclic. During a declining phase it can
> > temporarily work against the effect of AGW.
>
> > But if AGW did not exist, I would expect global temperatures to be
> > decreasing right now.
>
> > Instead we have new local records.
>
> > Wednesday November 18, 2009 - 13:25 EDT
> > ".......The Bureau of Meteorology says Bendigo is on track to record
> > its hottest November ever.
> > The daily average, so far this month, is about 4 degrees Celsius
> > hotter than the previous monthly record, set two years ago...."
>
> > November 19, 2009
> > ".....Melbourne last night shattered the highest temperature for a
> > November night since records began, outstripping the previous record
> > set in 1901 by almost two degrees....."
>
> > 19 Nov, 2009 11:53 AM
> > "....Port Pirie has just sweltered through its longest November
> > heatwave on record.
> > For nine successive days from Friday, November 6, to Sunday, November
> > 15, the maximum temperature has been above 35C, resulting in an
> > average of 40.1C.
> > This is an unheard of figure for November that is usually only reached
> > during scorchers in January or February...."
>
> >http://www.skynews.com.au/national/article.aspx?id=396042
> > Friday November 20, 2009
> > ".....Adelaide's temperature reached 43C giving the city it hottest
> > November day on record.
> > The previous highest was 42.7C on November 30, 1962...."
>
> I can't believe there are still global warming deniers out there.
> Every time to turn on the news you hear about 200 year old record temp
> here 200 year old record temp there,
>
> I think there will still be deniers when the Blue mountains becomes
> oceanfront property
That'd be fine ... it would mean that even if correct ... demagoguery
and falsification of data and prostitution of the scientific method
would have lost ...
Avid Fan
Have you not been watching the news we just had warmest winter in 200 years.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8235111.stm