After setbacks, Pakistani president may have weathered storm
PakistanPal
McClatchy Newspapers
ISLAMABAD -- Pakistan's U.S.-backed president, Asif Ali Zardari,
appears to have survived a campaign to oust him, a storm that had
threatened to sidetrack the country from its battle with Islamic
extremists.
Although there were predictions in the last few months of 2009 that he
was finished, Zardari has defended himself aggressively in recent days
and won some political allies. The news media and the judiciary had
appeared to be closing in on him, but in a world of political shadow
boxing, many analysts and politicians think that Pakistan's powerful
military has been behind the drive to force the president out of
office.
"I think he is fighting back admirably," said Abida Hussain, a senior
member of Zardari's Pakistan People's Party. "He threw down the
gauntlet, fair and square, and the conspirators, if any, seem to be
backing off."
The confrontation had sparked fears that the army, which has ruled
Pakistan for most of its existence, would intervene again, perhaps to
force fresh elections when the country is under pressure from the
Obama administration to launch an offensive in North Waziristan, a
vital Pakistani refuge for al-Qaida and the Taliban.
The army chief, Gen. Ashfaq Kayani, has let it be known repeatedly
that he's not interested in getting involved in politics, but the
Pakistan Peoples Party, the country's largest political party, remains
wary. Under pressure from Washington, Zardari and the country's
civilian leaders have pushed the military for greater action against
Islamic extremists.
"If you have the civilians and the military at loggerheads, it creates
a more confusing picture for the Americans, an extra layer of
uncertainty," said Cyril Almeida, a newspaper columnist for Dawn, a
Pakistani daily newspaper. "And the fight in Pakistan is moving from
counterinsurgency to the more delicate phase of counterterrorism, for
which you need coordination between agencies and between the civilian
and military apparatus."
The importance of North Waziristan, in northwest Pakistan, was
underscored Wednesday by another U.S. missile strike in the area,
which is a stronghold for the Haqqani network, considered a close ally
of al-Qaida and the most dangerous insurgent group in Afghanistan. It
was the fifth such strike since a suicide bomber killed a group of CIA
officers in the adjacent Afghan province of Khost last week. According
to news reports, 12 people were killed in the latest strike.
Separately, a suicide bomber hit a military camp Wednesday in the
Pakistani portion of the Kashmir region, which Pakistan and India both
claim, killing three soldiers.
Retaliatory terrorist attacks have killed more than 600 people since
Pakistan launched a military offensive in the fall against the
Pakistani Taliban in South Waziristan. The South Waziristan operation
and a similar offensive in the Swat valley last year were possible
largely because the civilians and military worked together, swaying
public opinion.
In a series of pugnacious speeches and pronouncements since Dec. 27,
Zardari has said that democracy in Pakistan is in danger, without
spelling out the source of the threat.
"Whether it's an internal conspiracy against democracy or external
conspiracy against Pakistan, we will fight them with the support of
the masses," he said in a speech Saturday.
Many members of Pakistan's military establishment despise Zardari for
his past alleged corruption and for interfering in sensitive security
policy since he was elected in 2008. Given that the last period of
military rule ended only that year and had become deeply unpopular,
the army is thought to be wary of seizing power again. The chief
military spokesman, Maj. Gen. Athar Abbas, didn't return calls seeking
comment.
The Supreme Court appeared to deal the final blow to Zardari last
month when it ruled that an amnesty that had ended pending corruption
cases against the president and some ministers was unconstitutional.
After the court verdict Dec. 16, however, no one resigned from the
government, and Zardari's political party decided to fight the graft
charges in the courts. Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, who some
speculated could be separated from Zardari, leaped to the defense of
the president.
Zardari also got strong backing from the leader of the Awami National
Party, which runs the provincial government in Pakistan's insurgency-
plagued North West Frontier Province. In recent days, three of the
four provincial parliaments passed resolutions in favor of the
president.
Crucially, opposition leader Nawaz Sharif, whom a military coup ousted
from his post as prime minister in 1999, hasn't called for Zardari's
resignation and has warned against unconstitutional moves. "Our
problems are the gift of dictatorship," Sharif said Wednesday.
"The politicians as a whole are behaving very maturely," said Ayaz
Amir, a member of parliament with Sharif's party, the Pakistan Muslim
League-N. "It's because of the perception on the part of the political
class that if the (democratic) system goes, then everything goes down
the drain."
(Shah is a McClatchy Newspapers special correspondent.)
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