http://forum.pafoa.org/showthread.php?t=357078&p=4504482#post4504482
If COVID Is Forever, Is This What You Want the Rest of Your Life to Look
Like?
By PHILIP KLEIN September 9, 2021 6:30 AM
People making sacrifices for a few weeks is one thing. But if those
sacrifices are indefinitely extended, it*s a much different debate. Most
people have at some point in their lives been asked to entertain a
version of the cheesy question, *If you knew you had one day to live,
what would you do?* It*s often posed as a playful game or essay topic or
used by self-help gurus to prod people into trying to get a deeper sense
of their priorities. But it*s time for everybody to start asking
themselves a different question: If COVID-19 will be here forever, is
this what you want the rest of your life to look like? In this case,
it*s not an idle or theoretical exercise. It will be central to how we
choose to live and function as a society for years or even decades to come.
Ever since the onset of COVID-19, we have more or less been living under
an illusion. That illusion was that it would reach some sort of natural
endpoint * a point at which the pandemic would be declared *over,* and
we could all more or less go back to normal. The original promise of
taking *15 days to slow the spread* or six weeks to *flatten the curve*
has long since been reduced to a punchline.
In March of 2020, the outside estimates were that this coronavirus
period would come to an end when safe and effective vaccines became
widely available. Even the infamous Imperial College London report,
viewed as draconian at the time for its estimate of up to 2.2 million
deaths in the U.S. absent sustained intervention, predicted that its
mitigation strategies *will need to be maintained until a vaccine
becomes available.* Yet vaccines have been available for anybody who
wants one for nearly six months, and our leaders have ignored the
obvious off-ramp. The CDC backtracked on guidance and said that
vaccinated people must wear masks in public, and many people and
jurisdictions have listened. For example, Montgomery County, Md., has an
extraordinarily high vaccination rate * with 96 percent of the eligible
over-twelve population having received at least one dose and 87 percent
of them being fully vaccinated. By its own metrics, the county has *low
utilization* of hospital beds. Yet the county requires masks indoors *
including in schools. In Oregon, vaccinated people are required to wear
masks even outdoors. And it isn*t just liberal enclaves. A new
Economist/YouGov poll found that eight in ten Americans report having
worn a mask in the past week at least *some of the time* when outside
their homes, with 58 percent masking *always* or *most of the time.* If
masking has remained so widespread among adults months after vaccines
became widely available, why will it end in schools after vaccines
become available for children?
When operating under the assumption that there is a time limit on
interventions, it*s much easier to accept various disruptions and
inconveniences. While there have been ferocious debates over whether
various mitigation strategies have ever been necessary, we should at
least be able to agree that the debate changes the longer such
restrictions are required. People making sacrifices for a few weeks, or
even a year, under the argument that doing so saves lives is one thing.
But if those sacrifices are indefinitely extended, it*s a much different
debate.
There are many Americans who willingly locked themselves down and who
still favor some restrictions. But what if this were to drag on for five
years? Ten years? Twenty years? Do you want your children to be forced
to wear masks throughout their childhoods? Do you want to bail on
weddings if some guests may be unvaccinated? Skip future funerals? Ditch
Thanksgiving when there*s a winter surge? Keep grandparents away from
their grandkids whenever there*s a new variant spreading? Are you never
going to see a movie in a theater again?
These are not wild scenarios. The Delta variant has led to surges
throughout the world months after vaccines became widely available.
Despite being a model of mass vaccination, Israel has been dealing with
a significant Delta spike. To be clear, vaccines still appear to be
quite effective at significantly reducing the risk of hospitalization
and death. But if the virus continues to adapt and people need to get
booster shots every six months or so, it seems there*s a good chance
that the coronavirus will continue to spread for a very long time. So
the question is how we, as individuals, and society as a whole, should
adapt to this reality. Instead of thinking in terms of policies that may
be tolerable for a very short period of time, it*s time to consider what
would happen if such policies had to continue forever.
Whatever arguments were made to justify interventions early on in the
pandemic, post-vaccine, we are in a much different universe. There is a
negligible statistical difference in the likelihood of severe health
consequences between vaccinated people who go about their business
without taking extra precautions, and those who take additional
precautions. Yet having to observe various protocols in perpetuity
translates into a reduced quality of life. Put another way, the sort of
question we need to start asking ourselves is not whether we can
tolerate masking for one trip to the grocery store, but whether we want
to live in a society in which we can never again go shopping without a mask.
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