http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9787329/Lethal-mix-Covid-flu-common-cold-virus-winter-push-NHS-breaking-point.html
It is feared the nation will suffer one of the worst influenza outbreaks
in decades due to Covid lockdowns causing a huge drop in immunity
against other viruses.
And flu isn't the only threat, according to the report by the Academy of
Medical Sciences, which said the NHS could be crippled by a
triple-whammy of Covid, flu and other seasonal viruses.
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Modelling of how bad influenza could strike say the death toll could be
twice as bad as normal, with flu typically kills between 10 to 30,000
people annually.
The AMS report, which was commissioned by England's chief scientific
adviser Sir Patrick Vallance, called for ministers to start treating flu
like Covid, saying usual death tolls from the seasonal virus are
unacceptable.
It means Boris Johnson — who has repeatedly pledged to follow the
science — could face pressure to adopt draconian measures to tackle
other viruses in the future.
In recent weeks, the PM has vowed to 'learn to live' with the
coronavirus like the flu, which raised hopes that the end of lockdowns
was finally in sight.
The graphs estimate daily Covid cases, hospital admissions, long-Covid
cases and infections in England in winter. The purple line shows the
best case scenario, the blue line is the reasonable worst case scenario
and the green line shows what they think will happen if 'Freedom Day'
was pushed to September 6. In all projections, the peak is projected to
take place in August and subsequent waves take of next March, but the
scientists said they could not rule out another winter wave. The experts
predict that the peak in deaths will be much lower than last winter, but
hospital admissions could rise to similar levels and those living with
long-Covid could double in number +1
The graphs estimate daily Covid cases, hospital admissions, long-Covid
cases and infections in England in winter. The purple line shows the
best case scenario, the blue line is the reasonable worst case scenario
and the green line shows what they think will happen if 'Freedom Day'
was pushed to September 6. In all projections, the peak is projected to
take place in August and subsequent waves take of next March, but the
scientists said they could not rule out another winter wave. The experts
predict that the peak in deaths will be much lower than last winter, but
hospital admissions could rise to similar levels and those living with
long-Covid could double in number
The graphs show the two different scenarios considered by the
scientists. The first shows what they think could happen if people in
England still have some immunity from the flu, but natural waning is
happening which makes more people susceptible to catch the flu over
time. In this situation, transmission would likely take off in winter
and infections and deaths would double compared to previous years. In
scenario two, the scientists estimated that if flu immunity dropped in
the population, the epidemic would most likely take off this summer, and
around 1.5 times more people would die and go to hospital. A summer
outbreak is less severe, because the R number is lower at this time of
year, so despite more people being susceptible to infection due to a
lack of immunity, less people would catch it
The graphs show the two different scenarios considered by the
scientists. The first shows what they think could happen if people in
England still have some immunity from the flu, but natural waning is
happening which makes more people susceptible to catch the flu over
time. In this situation, transmission would likely take off in winter
and infections and deaths would double compared to previous years. In
scenario two, the scientists estimated that if flu immunity dropped in
the population, the epidemic would most likely take off this summer, and
around 1.5 times more people would die and go to hospital. A summer
outbreak is less severe, because the R number is lower at this time of
year, so despite more people being susceptible to infection due to a
lack of immunity, less people would catch it
Society has never shut down in the face of a flu crisis, although NHS
hospitals have had to cancel tens of thousands of operations in the
middle of influenza outbreaks.
The AMS report looked at the Covid and non-Covid health challenges
facing the NHS this winter, what risks they pose and what can be done to
mitigate them.
All remaining lockdown restrictions are due to be lifted in England on
Monday, Wales will follow suit in August and Scotland and Northern
Ireland are expected to relax their rules significantly in the coming weeks.
Ministers are prepared to tolerate over 100,000 cases per day and No10's
top experts believe there could be at least 1,000 to 2,000 daily
hospital admissions.
The NHS waiting list already stands at a record 5.3million, with the
pandemic and the disruption lockdowns have caused on non-Covid care
having worsened the crisis.
New Health Secretary Sajid Javid has said this list could go to more
than 13million by the end of the year.
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Conclusions in the AMS report were made by a panel of 29 experts,
ranging from virologists to immunologists and NHS doctors.
The report warned the NHS is already gearing up to face pressures from a
third Covid wave, which could leave tens of thousands hospitalised.
Thousands fewer beds will be available in hospitals, with health bosses
forced to comply with Covid social distancing restrictions.
Existing staff shortage crises will pile on further pressure, with
84,000 vacant roles throughout the health service, the report warned.
The NHS also faces the threat of an increase in heart attacks and
strokes because the pandemic led to a decline in physical health.
On top of that, the threat of flu and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)
could pile even more stress on the NHS.
The experts warned deaths and hospitalisations from flu and RSV could
double if there is a surge in infections driven by a drop in immunity
caused by low infection levels last year.
The experts estimated that if people's immunity against respiratory
syncytial virus (RSV) has dropped, cases of the virus in children under
five in England will double. If protection has not waned, the scientists
estimated cases would jump by 50 per cent. The virus usually causes
20,000 under-5s to be admitted to hospital every year
The experts estimated that if people's immunity against respiratory
syncytial virus (RSV) has dropped, cases of the virus in children under
five in England will double. If protection has not waned, the scientists
estimated cases would jump by 50 per cent. The virus usually causes
20,000 under-5s to be admitted to hospital every year
What is RSV?
Respiratory syncytial virus (known as RSV) causes an infection called
Bronchiolitis. The infection is spread between people by coughing and
sneezing.
The infection starts with cold symptoms (runny nose, cough, sneezing and
fever). Warning signs include:
* Fast or laboured breathing
* Wheezing sound when breathing out
* Trouble feeding (for babies, this is because they only breathe through
their nose).
Symptoms are often worse at night. Illness usually starts to improve
after two to three days.
Infection may be worse and last for longer in very young children
(under three months), premature babies or children with lung or heart
problems.
No medicine can be taken to cure bronchiolitis.
Children's paracetamol (in recommended doses) may help your child feel
more comfortable if they have a fever.
Infants with a severe infection may be admitted to hospital. In
hospital, treatment may include oxygen and fluids. Fluids are usually
given through a nasogastric tube (a tube that goes into the nose).
Make sure your child is getting enough fluids. Smaller feeds given more
often may help.
Salt water solution available from pharmacies (e.g. Fess) dropped or
sprayed in each nostril before feeding may help clear the nose.
Keep your child away from cigarette smoke.
Prevent the spread of infection by keeping your child away from other
small children especially for the first few days of illness.
Cases of the common viruses plummeted to the lowest levels ever recorded
in the UK last year, as measures to stop Covid infections had a knock-on
effect.
Flu deaths could reach 60,000 in England, more than double the 10,000 to
30,000 that it kills on an average every year, scientists found.
RSV could be more than two times worse this year, with the virus usually
causing 20,000 infected children under 5 to be admitted to hospital.
They also warned hospital admissions from Covid could hit up to six
thousand per day.
But the experts warned their figures are estimates, as they do not know
how many people are immune from the viruses.
The flu is also 'incredibly unpredictable', so it is very difficult to
estimate how bad it will actually be.
Case numbers will also depend on any measures taken to mitigate
infections, they said.
Covid and the other two respiratory illnesses have symptoms that mimic
each other, so it is important to have tests that distinguish between
them, the scientists said.
This could be done though multiplex testing, which is a single test that
can identify up to 10 different viruses.
One of these could be developed to test for Covid, flu and RSV at the
same time, so the best treatment and advice can be provided, the experts
said.
Quick detection of flu cases would let doctors treat the flu with
antivirals — which work best if given within the first 48 hours of
catching it.
But experts said it is unclear whether these would be rolled out in
England because they are expensive and it would be 'an effort' to spread
them out.
The group advised people to continue with behaviours they picked up
during the pandemic to protect against other respiratory disease.
Professor Sir Stephen Holgate, chair of the advisory group, said: 'Is it
acceptable at the present time looking backwards to have all these
viruses swashing around at winter driving the NHS to breaking point? No.
'We need to respect our lungs now. We deserve to have a change in how we
operate as a society to control these viruses.'
Professor Dame Anne Johnson, president of the academy, claimed social
distancing, face masks and working from home are sensible measure that
also protect from other respiratory viruses.
'All the things we do for Covid - like staying away from people when
sick - we need to do when dealing with any viral infection, because you
can pass it on,' she said.
Everyone in the UK 'thought it was all very strange' when countries that
experienced SARS outbreaks kept wearing masks, but now everyone has
learned about how viruses are transmitted and have adopted habits like
washing their hands more, Dame Johnson said.
She added that said she hopes the country will take forward some of
these behavioural changes, but can't predict if that will happen.
In addition to the risk from Covid, flu and RSV, the academy warned NHS
also has to prepare for a Covid booster programme, a major flu jab
rollout and catch up missed routine vaccinations.
The health service also has to improve infection prevention control and
surveillance because up to 10 per cent of all patients admitted to
hospital caught the virus while they were there.
An NHS spokesperson said: 'NHS staff have worked tirelessly throughout
the pandemic responding to increased demand by expanding critical care
capacity by 50 per cent in hospitals, managing admissions through mutual
aid and working with the independent sector.
'And ahead of winter, the NHS will continue with tried and tested plans
to support hospitals so that they can continue to offer patients the
care they need while restoring routine operations back to pre-pandemic
levels and vaccinating the country against Covid.'
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