https://archive.is/5P5Ni
Sajid Javid: World leaders have acted like panicked shoppers hoarding
lavatory paper
Health Secretary’s comments, made in a research paper, accuse
governments of ‘herd behaviour’ in the face of Covid pandemic
By
Dominic Penna
3 July 2021 • 9:30pm
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Sajid Javid confirms final stage of lockdown is 19 July, pledging an
'exciting new journey'
Sajid Javid accused world leaders of “herd behaviour” in their response
to the coronavirus pandemic and likened them to panicked shoppers who
hoarded toilet paper, The Telegraph can reveal.
The new Health Secretary made the comments in a research paper in
December 2020 that he produced in his role as a senior fellow at Harvard
Kennedy School.
Mr Javid, who this week ruled out any further extension of Covid
restrictions beyond July 19, also spoke of the need for the economic
responses to the virus to be “overhauled”.
His comments are likely to add to the optimism of some Conservative MPs
that Mr Javid will take a less hardline approach to lockdowns than his
predecessor Matt Hancock, who resigned last week.
Governments of democratic industrialised nations demonstrated “herd
behaviour” by allowing the existing policies of other countries to
dictate their virus response, the former Chancellor argued.
“Many factors that took place during Covid provided heightened
conditions for herd behaviour ... crisis, fear, volatility and
uncertainty all increase [its] likelihood,” Mr Javid wrote.
“Or the interaction between global leaders’ identity grouping and
decision making, as the fact that other types of herd behaviour were
observed in most populations – e.g. hoarding of toilet paper – and the
market (massive volatility).
“If indeed herd behaviour took place, it would be important to consider
how this behavior can negatively impact equilibria, for example giving
‘first movers’ outsized influence in a final equilibrium.”
Eastern countries have responded better than West
Mr Javid’s research concludes that “behavioural differences in human
contact” explain why South Korea and Taiwan’s rates of infection have
been significantly lower than those in Western countries.
He cited mask-wearing, “obesity differences in East versus West” and the
contrast between bowing and hugging as factors that account for the
higher levels of cases, hospitalisations and deaths in the UK and Spain.
On Britain’s multiple lockdowns, he wrote: “The magnitude of the impact
of Covid-19 is due in part to the economic and social pain that various
forms of lockdown have caused.
“It is already clear that although the governments of developed
countries had pre-existing, detailed plans to respond to a pandemic, few
have managed this particular crisis well. The way we prepare for public
health shocks of this nature will need to be overhauled.”
PROFILE
Sajid Javid
Born:
Rochdale, 5 December 1969 (age 51)
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An aversion to trade-offs – including weighing up the needs of the
economy against the health of the population – was among the “dangerous”
biases shown by politicians during a crisis, he added.
Other trade-offs identified in the research include health versus
privacy, health versus property rights and “optimism bias versus risk
averseness”.
Mr Javid said the about-turns that had characterised much of the UK
Government’s response to the virus were an “essential feature of good
policy making” in light of new and changeable information, but added
politicians must do more to defend U-turns’ “healthy role within
democracies”.
Taking to the Despatch Box on Monday, he told MPs that no date of
restrictions was risk-free and that Britons must learn to live with the
virus.
“Make no mistake, the restrictions on our freedoms must come to an end,”
he said. “We owe it to the British people not to wait a moment longer
than we need to.”
Mr Javid’s appointment to his new role has cheered lockdown sceptics on
the Tory back benches. He was the most high-profile Conservative
politician to call for a reopening of the economy in May 2020.
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The following month, Mr Javid authored a separate report for the Centre
for Policy Studies think-tank which offered 63 different recommendations
about restoring economic growth.
He used his introduction to the research paper to insist that the focus
of the ministers “must shift from safeguarding the economy to rebuilding
it”.
Proposals included significant temporary cuts to employer’s National
Insurance, major planning law reform and fast-tracking plans for
infrastructure projects.
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