info
Google Groups no longer supports new Usenet posts or subscriptions. Historical content remains viewable.
Dismiss
New Covid variants ‘would set us back a year’, experts warn UK government
69 views
Skip to first unread message
Michael Ejercito
Aug 16, 2021, 10:12:43 AM8/16/21
to
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/15/new-covid-variants-will-set-us-back-a-year-experts-warn-uk-government
New Covid variants ‘would set us back a year’, experts warn UK government
Vaccine-beating variant is ‘realistic possibility’, say scientists, amid
calls for contingency plans to be revealed
Coronavirus – latest updates
See all our coronavirus coverage
A three-dimensional rendered image of the Delta Covid variant.
A three-dimensional rendered image of the Delta Covid variant.
Photograph: koto_feja/Getty Images/iStockphoto
Michael Savage
Sat 14 Aug 2021 19.01 EDT
Ministers are being pressed to reveal what contingency plans are in
place to deal with a future Covid variant that evades current vaccines,
amid warnings from scientific advisers that such an outcome could set
the battle against the pandemic back a year or more.
Recent papers produced by the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for
Emergencies (Sage) have suggested that the arrival of a variant that
evades vaccines is a “realistic possibility”. Sage backed continued work
on new vaccines that reduce infection and transmission more than current
jabs, the creation of more vaccine-production facilities in the UK and
lab-based studies to predict evolution of variants.
With the arrival of a new variant seen as one of the main dangers that
could intensify the crisis once again, prominent scientific figures
stressed the risks. Prof Graham Medley, a member of Sage and a leader of
the government’s Covid modelling group, said it was “clearly something
that the planners and scientists should take very seriously as it would
put us back a long way”.
Advertisement
“It is not that different to the planning that needs to be done between
pandemics – a new variant that was able to overcome immunity
significantly would be essentially a new virus,” he said. “The advantage
would be that we know we can generate vaccines against this virus – and
relatively quickly. The disadvantage is that we would be back to the
same situation we were in a year ago, depending on how much impact
current immunity had against a new variant. Hopefully, evolution is
slow, so that new variants arise that are only marginally evasive rather
than one big jump.” Dr Marc Baguelin, from Imperial College’s Covid-19
response team and a member of the government’s SPI-M modelling group,
said preventing the importation of variants of concern with “moderate to
high immune-escape properties would be critical, as these could lead to
future waves orders of magnitude larger than the ones experienced so far”.
“It is unlikely that such a new virus evades entirely all immunity from
past infection or vaccines,” he said. “Some immunity should remain at
least for the most severe outcomes such as death or hospitalisation. We
would most likely be able to update the current vaccines to include the
emerging strain.
“But doing so would take months and means that we might need to reimpose
restrictions if there were a significant public health risk. The amount
of restrictions would be a political decision and would need to be
proportionate with how much this virus would evade current vaccines.”
It comes with a further loosening of restrictions in England on Monday
when fully vaccinated people and under-18s will no longer be legally
required to self-isolate if they come into close contact with someone
with Covid. They will be advised, but not obliged, to take a PCR test
instead. Daily Covid cases have been hovering around the 30,000 mark.
The latest figures, from 13 August, showed that a further 32,700 had
tested positive and another 100 deaths were reported.
Meanwhile, all 16- and 17-year-olds in England will be offered a first
dose of vaccine over the next week to give them some protection before
schools return in September. Health secretary Sajid Javid urged older
teenagers not to delay. “Get your jabs as soon as you can so we can
continue to safely live with this virus and enjoy our freedoms by giving
yourself, your family and your community the protection they need,” he said.
Boris Johnson’s former senior adviser Dominic Cummings has already
called on the government to publish a “variant escape vaccine
contingency plan” and suggested MPs should explore ways of forcing
ministers to do so. One scientist, speaking on condition of anonymity,
said they would like to see the publication of the national risk
assessment relating to Covid-19 contingency plans.
Munira Wilson, the Liberal Democrat health spokesperson, is backing the
move. “It is critical that people have confidence in Boris Johnson’s
Covid strategy and trust him not to repeat the same mistakes of the last
18 months,” she said. “Through refusing to self-isolate, breaking their
own rules and making mistakes that have cost lives, the government has
lost public trust. Transparency is the only way to begin winning that
trust back.”
Stephen Reicher, professor of psychology at the University of St
Andrews, said: “It very much makes sense to be prepared. Scotland is
setting up its standing committee on pandemics. It will be interesting
to see what emerges on a UK level.
“In the longer-term we need a systematic inquiry into what went wrong
(and right) so we are prepared and also so that we can institute
systemic changes to protect us. The pandemic has been like a barium meal
which has exposed so many deficiencies in our society. We can no longer
pretend we are not aware of them. This has been a deafening wake-up
call. Let’s make sure we don’t press the snooze button.”
Government sources said Public Health England and others were monitoring
the situation through rapid surveillance and genomic sequencing of the
virus. A Department of Health and Social Care spokesperson said the
vaccination programme had built a “wall of defence”.
“We are committed to protecting the progress of the vaccine rollout and
our world-leading genomics capabilities are at the forefront of global
efforts to stay ahead of variants, with over half a million samples
genome-sequenced so far,” they said.
Official figures show the UK recorded 93 new Covid-related deaths and
29,520 new cases yesterday.“Data from Public Health England shows two
doses of Covid-19 vaccines are more than 90% effective against
hospitalisation from the Delta variant, the dominant strain in the UK.”
--
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
https://www.avg.com
New Covid variants ‘would set us back a year’, experts warn UK government
Vaccine-beating variant is ‘realistic possibility’, say scientists, amid
calls for contingency plans to be revealed
Coronavirus – latest updates
See all our coronavirus coverage
A three-dimensional rendered image of the Delta Covid variant.
A three-dimensional rendered image of the Delta Covid variant.
Photograph: koto_feja/Getty Images/iStockphoto
Michael Savage
Sat 14 Aug 2021 19.01 EDT
Ministers are being pressed to reveal what contingency plans are in
place to deal with a future Covid variant that evades current vaccines,
amid warnings from scientific advisers that such an outcome could set
the battle against the pandemic back a year or more.
Recent papers produced by the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for
Emergencies (Sage) have suggested that the arrival of a variant that
evades vaccines is a “realistic possibility”. Sage backed continued work
on new vaccines that reduce infection and transmission more than current
jabs, the creation of more vaccine-production facilities in the UK and
lab-based studies to predict evolution of variants.
With the arrival of a new variant seen as one of the main dangers that
could intensify the crisis once again, prominent scientific figures
stressed the risks. Prof Graham Medley, a member of Sage and a leader of
the government’s Covid modelling group, said it was “clearly something
that the planners and scientists should take very seriously as it would
put us back a long way”.
Advertisement
“It is not that different to the planning that needs to be done between
pandemics – a new variant that was able to overcome immunity
significantly would be essentially a new virus,” he said. “The advantage
would be that we know we can generate vaccines against this virus – and
relatively quickly. The disadvantage is that we would be back to the
same situation we were in a year ago, depending on how much impact
current immunity had against a new variant. Hopefully, evolution is
slow, so that new variants arise that are only marginally evasive rather
than one big jump.” Dr Marc Baguelin, from Imperial College’s Covid-19
response team and a member of the government’s SPI-M modelling group,
said preventing the importation of variants of concern with “moderate to
high immune-escape properties would be critical, as these could lead to
future waves orders of magnitude larger than the ones experienced so far”.
“It is unlikely that such a new virus evades entirely all immunity from
past infection or vaccines,” he said. “Some immunity should remain at
least for the most severe outcomes such as death or hospitalisation. We
would most likely be able to update the current vaccines to include the
emerging strain.
“But doing so would take months and means that we might need to reimpose
restrictions if there were a significant public health risk. The amount
of restrictions would be a political decision and would need to be
proportionate with how much this virus would evade current vaccines.”
It comes with a further loosening of restrictions in England on Monday
when fully vaccinated people and under-18s will no longer be legally
required to self-isolate if they come into close contact with someone
with Covid. They will be advised, but not obliged, to take a PCR test
instead. Daily Covid cases have been hovering around the 30,000 mark.
The latest figures, from 13 August, showed that a further 32,700 had
tested positive and another 100 deaths were reported.
Meanwhile, all 16- and 17-year-olds in England will be offered a first
dose of vaccine over the next week to give them some protection before
schools return in September. Health secretary Sajid Javid urged older
teenagers not to delay. “Get your jabs as soon as you can so we can
continue to safely live with this virus and enjoy our freedoms by giving
yourself, your family and your community the protection they need,” he said.
Boris Johnson’s former senior adviser Dominic Cummings has already
called on the government to publish a “variant escape vaccine
contingency plan” and suggested MPs should explore ways of forcing
ministers to do so. One scientist, speaking on condition of anonymity,
said they would like to see the publication of the national risk
assessment relating to Covid-19 contingency plans.
Munira Wilson, the Liberal Democrat health spokesperson, is backing the
move. “It is critical that people have confidence in Boris Johnson’s
Covid strategy and trust him not to repeat the same mistakes of the last
18 months,” she said. “Through refusing to self-isolate, breaking their
own rules and making mistakes that have cost lives, the government has
lost public trust. Transparency is the only way to begin winning that
trust back.”
Stephen Reicher, professor of psychology at the University of St
Andrews, said: “It very much makes sense to be prepared. Scotland is
setting up its standing committee on pandemics. It will be interesting
to see what emerges on a UK level.
“In the longer-term we need a systematic inquiry into what went wrong
(and right) so we are prepared and also so that we can institute
systemic changes to protect us. The pandemic has been like a barium meal
which has exposed so many deficiencies in our society. We can no longer
pretend we are not aware of them. This has been a deafening wake-up
call. Let’s make sure we don’t press the snooze button.”
Government sources said Public Health England and others were monitoring
the situation through rapid surveillance and genomic sequencing of the
virus. A Department of Health and Social Care spokesperson said the
vaccination programme had built a “wall of defence”.
“We are committed to protecting the progress of the vaccine rollout and
our world-leading genomics capabilities are at the forefront of global
efforts to stay ahead of variants, with over half a million samples
genome-sequenced so far,” they said.
Official figures show the UK recorded 93 new Covid-related deaths and
29,520 new cases yesterday.“Data from Public Health England shows two
doses of Covid-19 vaccines are more than 90% effective against
hospitalisation from the Delta variant, the dominant strain in the UK.”
--
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
https://www.avg.com
HeartDoc Andrew
Aug 16, 2021, 10:25:36 AM8/16/21
to
the U.S. & elsewhere is by rapidly ( http://bit.ly/RapidTestCOVID-19 )
finding out at any given moment, including even while on-line, who
among us are unwittingly contagious (i.e pre-symptomatic or
asymptomatic) in order to http://bit.ly/convince_it_forward (John
15:12) for them to call their doctor and self-quarantine per their
doctor in hopes of stopping this pandemic. Thus, we're hoping for the
best while preparing for the worse-case scenario of the Alpha lineage
mutations and others like the Gamma, Beta, Epsilon, Iota, Lambda &
Delta lineage mutations combining to form hybrids that render current
COVID vaccines no longer effective.
Indeed, I am wonderfully hungry ( http://bit.ly/RapidTestCOVID-19 )
and hope you, Michael, also have a healthy appetite too.
So how are you ?
...because we mindfully choose to openly care with our heart,
HeartDoc Andrew <><
--
Andrew B. Chung, MD/PhD
Cardiologist with an http://HeartMDPhD.com/EternalMedicalLicense
2024 & upwards non-partisan candidate for U.S. President:
http://HeartMDPhD.com/WonderfullyHungryPresident
and author of the 2PD-OMER Approach:
http://HeartMDPhD.com/HeartDocAndrewCare
which is the only **healthy** cure for the U.S. healthcare crisis
Michael Ejercito
Aug 16, 2021, 10:51:59 AM8/16/21
to
Michael
HeartDoc Andrew
Aug 16, 2021, 11:09:33 AM8/16/21
to
MichaelE wrote:
> I am wonderfully hungry!
While wonderfully hungry in the Holy Spirit, Who causes (Deuteronomy
8:3) us to hunger, I note that you, Michael, not only don't have
COVID-19 but are rapture (Luke 17:37) ready and pray (2 Chronicles
7:14) that our Everlasting (Isaiah 9:6) Father in Heaven continues to
give us "much more" (Luke 11:13) Holy Spirit (Galatians 5:22-23) so
that we'd have much more of His Help to always say/write that we're
"wonderfully hungry" in **all** ways including especially caring to
http://bit.ly/convince_it_forward (John 15:12 as shown by
http://bit.ly/RapidTestCOVID-19 ) with all glory (
http://bit.ly/Psalm117_ ) to GOD (aka HaShem, Elohim, Abba, DEO), in
the name (John 16:23) of LORD Jesus Christ of Nazareth. Amen.
Laus DEO !
Suggested further reading:
https://groups.google.com/g/sci.med.cardiology/c/5EWtT4CwCOg/m/QjNF57xRBAAJ
Shorter link:
http://bit.ly/StatCOVID-19Test
Be hungrier, which really is wonderfully healthier especially for
diabetics and other heart disease patients:
http://HeartMDPhD.com/HeartDocAndrewToutsHunger (Luke 6:21a) with all
glory ( http://HeartMDPhD.com/Psalm117_ ) to GOD, Who causes us to
hunger (Deuteronomy 8:3) when He blesses us right now (Luke 6:21a)
thereby removing the http://HeartMDPhD.com/VAT from around the heart
...because we mindfully choose to openly care with our heart,
HeartDoc Andrew <><
While wonderfully hungry in the Holy Spirit, Who causes (Deuteronomy
8:3) us to hunger, I note that you, Michael, not only don't have
COVID-19 but are rapture (Luke 17:37) ready and pray (2 Chronicles
7:14) that our Everlasting (Isaiah 9:6) Father in Heaven continues to
give us "much more" (Luke 11:13) Holy Spirit (Galatians 5:22-23) so
that we'd have much more of His Help to always say/write that we're
"wonderfully hungry" in **all** ways including especially caring to
http://bit.ly/convince_it_forward (John 15:12 as shown by
http://bit.ly/RapidTestCOVID-19 ) with all glory (
http://bit.ly/Psalm117_ ) to GOD (aka HaShem, Elohim, Abba, DEO), in
the name (John 16:23) of LORD Jesus Christ of Nazareth. Amen.
Laus DEO !
Suggested further reading:
https://groups.google.com/g/sci.med.cardiology/c/5EWtT4CwCOg/m/QjNF57xRBAAJ
Shorter link:
http://bit.ly/StatCOVID-19Test
Be hungrier, which really is wonderfully healthier especially for
diabetics and other heart disease patients:
http://HeartMDPhD.com/HeartDocAndrewToutsHunger (Luke 6:21a) with all
glory ( http://HeartMDPhD.com/Psalm117_ ) to GOD, Who causes us to
hunger (Deuteronomy 8:3) when He blesses us right now (Luke 6:21a)
thereby removing the http://HeartMDPhD.com/VAT from around the heart
...because we mindfully choose to openly care with our heart,
HeartDoc Andrew <><
0 new messages