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Prof Francois Balloux: ‘The pandemic has created a market for gloom and doom’
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Michael Ejercito
Aug 8, 2021, 10:32:21 PM8/8/21
to
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/07/prof-francois-balloux-the-pandemic-has-created-a-market-for-gloom-and-doom
Ian Tucker
Francois Balloux.
‘From the start, the pandemic has been polarising’: Francois Balloux.
Photograph: Dom Smaz/Imago/Hans Lucas
The UCL scientist and ‘militant corona centrist’ on the risk of new
variants, psychosomatic long Covid and when he expects the crisis to end
Coronavirus – latest updates
See all our coronavirus coverage
Sat 7 Aug 2021 10.00 EDT
Prof Francois Balloux is director of the University College London
Genetics Institute. His work focuses on the reconstruction of disease
outbreaks and epidemics. With his colleague Dr Lucy van Dorp, he led the
first large-scale sequencing project of the Sars-CoV2 genome. During the
pandemic, he has become a prominent scientist on Twitter, where he
describes himself as a “militant corona centrist”.
Would you say a new variant of concern is still the major threat to our
way out of this pandemic?
We haven’t had one in a while. The four variants of concern all emerged
in the second half of 2020, and it’s important to keep in mind that
viruses evolve all the time at a fairly regular pace.
Advertisement
‘I don’t see how it can be safe’: Florida schools on frontlines of
state’s mask war
However, with Alpha, something unexpected happened: there was a sudden
accumulation of mutations. One reasonable hypothesis is that Alpha
emerged from an infection of an immunocompromised person or someone who
was infected for a very long period. The other three variants of concern
(Beta, Gamma, Delta) emerged through gradual accumulation of mutations.
So it’s not always predictable?
It’s extraordinarily difficult to predict a shock like the Alpha
variant. What is easy to predict is that mutations will continue to
appear and the virus will progressively drift, with the vaccines
becoming less effective over time.
There was a suggestion in a Sage paper that a very lethal variant could
emerge, while other scientists suggest that the virus has reached its
“maximum fit”, that if it evolves further it will lose the ability to
coexist with its human hosts.
It’s important to balance the scariness of predictions with their
likelihood. The likelihood of a lineage emerging that is 50 times more
lethal is extraordinarily implausible. I say that because we have 200
respiratory viruses in circulation and most of us get infected on a
regular basis. We’ve never seen that kind of sudden change in mortality.
I’m not saying it’s impossible, but you may have a better chance of
winning the lottery jackpot many times over.
Where does the emergence of the alpha and delta variants sit on your
jackpot-winning measure?
That’s such a difficult question. It is somewhat comparable to asking
what the chances of someone winning the jackpot are, without having any
idea about how many numbers there are on the lottery ticket.
Advertisement
The Alpha and Delta variants emerged, and they obviously were winning
combinations of mutations for the virus – though we also know that no
other comparably transmissible viral lineage has emerged so far, despite
millions of infections and a constant influx of mutations.
Another concern is a mutation that enables the virus to “escape” the
vaccines…
Over two million viral samples have been sequenced, and we’ve probably
already seen all the mutations that are technically possible. From our
observations, we know that vaccine escape will not appear after one or
two mutations – it will require an accumulation giving rise to the right
combination. We will not go from one day everyone being protected to
everyone being vulnerable the next. We will have time to update the
vaccines.
Also, while a vaccine-escape variant would indeed be able to infect
vaccinated people far more easily, it would not nullify the protection
against severe disease and death provided by the vaccine and prior
infection.
Where do you stand on vaccinating teenagers?
This is the mother of all questions. There are people who are very
passionate on both sides. Given the data available – and not many
teenagers have been immunised – I think the JCVI has probably been right
to err on the side of caution by first recommending the vaccine for
healthy over-18s, and as more data has become available, to healthy
over-16s. There is an issue with heart inflammation in younger males
administered mRNA vaccines. One possible solution could be to give
teenagers only one dose – most of the side-effects have been registered
after the second dose. However, a single-dose regime hasn’t been
trialled or approved yet.
You have stated that a “non-trivial” number of long-Covid cases are
psychosomatic.
We know that infections such as Covid lead to post-viral syndromes. At
the risk of being insensitive, I would be surprised if there wasn’t a
link between disease severity and the severity of follow-up symptoms.
Like tuberculosis or influenza, people who have a severe case should
expect to take a long time to recover fully. And sometimes recovery is
never complete.
I would like to stress: if you have a serious infection, do not
necessarily expect to be back to full fitness in three months
The situation is more complicated with a mild infection. Post-viral
symptoms can happen but it seems relatively implausible to me that this
would happen very frequently. In all likelihood, some cases are
psychosomatic – though this doesn’t make the suffering less real for
those affected or reduce the cost to society. All disease is real,
irrespective of its root cause.
Advertisement
There is a mental component to health and disease. Just the fear of
something bad happening to us can make us feel unwell. A remarkable
example of this process can be seen in the way over 30% of the people
who were enrolled in the control arm of the Pfizer vaccine trial
reported headaches and fatigue, despite not being injected with a vaccine.
You had a bad bout of Covid – does this inform your view?
I try to discount my own experience when I think about public health
issues. That said, I would probably be included as having long Covid
because six months later I haven’t fully recovered my sense of smell or
taste. I think we need a meaningful definition that captures whether you
have regained full fitness. I would like to stress: if you have a
serious infection, do not necessarily expect to be back to full fitness
in three months.
Your Twitter bio states you are a “militant corona centrist”. What do
you mean by that?
From the start, the pandemic has been polarising. Some people thought
we should “let it rip” or “take it on the chin” and others thought we
should fight to eliminate it everywhere. These camps have fought for 16
months and it’s pretty toxic. Both are pretty extreme and unrealistic. I
always thought very careful mitigation could keep the pandemic under
control until vaccines arrived. A few countries have come close, such as
Singapore, Norway and Denmark.
The scientist is supposed to revise their conclusions as the evidence
evolves. Do you feel that scientists on both sides of the debate have
been holding on to their views in spite of the evidence?
It’s self-serving to say “they don’t change their mind, I do” – despite
the fact that I didn’t. Our brains work in a Bayesian way – we have
priors that influence how we regard new information. As a scientist, it
is very important not to have overwhelmingly strong priors – you need to
be open to surprise and to let your priors be updated by new data. It’s
important to engage with new evidence. Being dogmatic is problematic.
This issue is amplified when, as now, scientists are talking directly to
the public…
Before the pandemic, scientists were rarely asked anything, or we were
listened to in a polite, slightly bored way. But now people are clinging
to the words of scientists, which can make it more difficult for them to
change their mind. Few scientists have changed their views on Covid but
when they do it’s often not well received – there’s an element of
groupthink and for more media-savvy scientists, an expectation from
their adoring crowd that they’re not meant to do that.
jeremy farrar on a balcony at the wellcome trust in central london
Jeremy Farrar: ‘A September 2020 lockdown would have saved a lot of lives’
Read more
Advertisement
Neil Ferguson has been criticised for his predictions of 100,000 cases a
day after the easing of restrictions on 19 July.
I know Neil, he was my boss for five years. His predictions were quite
pessimistic but he tends to be pessimistic – which isn’t a criticism. If
you are in a position of authority giving advice to the government you
really want to err on the side of caution.
Can you explain what you mean by “scientific populism”?
As the pandemic has advanced the mood of the public has become darker
and more fearful and this has created a market for gloom and doom. It’s
as bad as the effects of the super-optimism at the beginning – stay at
home for two weeks, it’s a mild disease or wear a mask and it will be
gone. So I kind of captured the market for corona centrism – not to be
systematically optimistic or pessimistic and to make it clear there are
major uncertainties. And this is empowering, because understanding
things is.
You’ve often stated that the pandemic will be over by mid to late 2021.
Do you stand by this?
Depends on how you quantify it. I would say the pandemic is over when
Covid-19 doesn’t cause significantly more mortality than other
respiratory viruses in circulation. This will happen first in places
such as the UK that have been privileged to get vaccine coverage – I
expect at the latest early next year.
--
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
https://www.avg.com
Ian Tucker
Francois Balloux.
‘From the start, the pandemic has been polarising’: Francois Balloux.
Photograph: Dom Smaz/Imago/Hans Lucas
The UCL scientist and ‘militant corona centrist’ on the risk of new
variants, psychosomatic long Covid and when he expects the crisis to end
Coronavirus – latest updates
See all our coronavirus coverage
Sat 7 Aug 2021 10.00 EDT
Prof Francois Balloux is director of the University College London
Genetics Institute. His work focuses on the reconstruction of disease
outbreaks and epidemics. With his colleague Dr Lucy van Dorp, he led the
first large-scale sequencing project of the Sars-CoV2 genome. During the
pandemic, he has become a prominent scientist on Twitter, where he
describes himself as a “militant corona centrist”.
Would you say a new variant of concern is still the major threat to our
way out of this pandemic?
We haven’t had one in a while. The four variants of concern all emerged
in the second half of 2020, and it’s important to keep in mind that
viruses evolve all the time at a fairly regular pace.
Advertisement
‘I don’t see how it can be safe’: Florida schools on frontlines of
state’s mask war
However, with Alpha, something unexpected happened: there was a sudden
accumulation of mutations. One reasonable hypothesis is that Alpha
emerged from an infection of an immunocompromised person or someone who
was infected for a very long period. The other three variants of concern
(Beta, Gamma, Delta) emerged through gradual accumulation of mutations.
So it’s not always predictable?
It’s extraordinarily difficult to predict a shock like the Alpha
variant. What is easy to predict is that mutations will continue to
appear and the virus will progressively drift, with the vaccines
becoming less effective over time.
There was a suggestion in a Sage paper that a very lethal variant could
emerge, while other scientists suggest that the virus has reached its
“maximum fit”, that if it evolves further it will lose the ability to
coexist with its human hosts.
It’s important to balance the scariness of predictions with their
likelihood. The likelihood of a lineage emerging that is 50 times more
lethal is extraordinarily implausible. I say that because we have 200
respiratory viruses in circulation and most of us get infected on a
regular basis. We’ve never seen that kind of sudden change in mortality.
I’m not saying it’s impossible, but you may have a better chance of
winning the lottery jackpot many times over.
Where does the emergence of the alpha and delta variants sit on your
jackpot-winning measure?
That’s such a difficult question. It is somewhat comparable to asking
what the chances of someone winning the jackpot are, without having any
idea about how many numbers there are on the lottery ticket.
Advertisement
The Alpha and Delta variants emerged, and they obviously were winning
combinations of mutations for the virus – though we also know that no
other comparably transmissible viral lineage has emerged so far, despite
millions of infections and a constant influx of mutations.
Another concern is a mutation that enables the virus to “escape” the
vaccines…
Over two million viral samples have been sequenced, and we’ve probably
already seen all the mutations that are technically possible. From our
observations, we know that vaccine escape will not appear after one or
two mutations – it will require an accumulation giving rise to the right
combination. We will not go from one day everyone being protected to
everyone being vulnerable the next. We will have time to update the
vaccines.
Also, while a vaccine-escape variant would indeed be able to infect
vaccinated people far more easily, it would not nullify the protection
against severe disease and death provided by the vaccine and prior
infection.
Where do you stand on vaccinating teenagers?
This is the mother of all questions. There are people who are very
passionate on both sides. Given the data available – and not many
teenagers have been immunised – I think the JCVI has probably been right
to err on the side of caution by first recommending the vaccine for
healthy over-18s, and as more data has become available, to healthy
over-16s. There is an issue with heart inflammation in younger males
administered mRNA vaccines. One possible solution could be to give
teenagers only one dose – most of the side-effects have been registered
after the second dose. However, a single-dose regime hasn’t been
trialled or approved yet.
You have stated that a “non-trivial” number of long-Covid cases are
psychosomatic.
We know that infections such as Covid lead to post-viral syndromes. At
the risk of being insensitive, I would be surprised if there wasn’t a
link between disease severity and the severity of follow-up symptoms.
Like tuberculosis or influenza, people who have a severe case should
expect to take a long time to recover fully. And sometimes recovery is
never complete.
I would like to stress: if you have a serious infection, do not
necessarily expect to be back to full fitness in three months
The situation is more complicated with a mild infection. Post-viral
symptoms can happen but it seems relatively implausible to me that this
would happen very frequently. In all likelihood, some cases are
psychosomatic – though this doesn’t make the suffering less real for
those affected or reduce the cost to society. All disease is real,
irrespective of its root cause.
Advertisement
There is a mental component to health and disease. Just the fear of
something bad happening to us can make us feel unwell. A remarkable
example of this process can be seen in the way over 30% of the people
who were enrolled in the control arm of the Pfizer vaccine trial
reported headaches and fatigue, despite not being injected with a vaccine.
You had a bad bout of Covid – does this inform your view?
I try to discount my own experience when I think about public health
issues. That said, I would probably be included as having long Covid
because six months later I haven’t fully recovered my sense of smell or
taste. I think we need a meaningful definition that captures whether you
have regained full fitness. I would like to stress: if you have a
serious infection, do not necessarily expect to be back to full fitness
in three months.
Your Twitter bio states you are a “militant corona centrist”. What do
you mean by that?
From the start, the pandemic has been polarising. Some people thought
we should “let it rip” or “take it on the chin” and others thought we
should fight to eliminate it everywhere. These camps have fought for 16
months and it’s pretty toxic. Both are pretty extreme and unrealistic. I
always thought very careful mitigation could keep the pandemic under
control until vaccines arrived. A few countries have come close, such as
Singapore, Norway and Denmark.
The scientist is supposed to revise their conclusions as the evidence
evolves. Do you feel that scientists on both sides of the debate have
been holding on to their views in spite of the evidence?
It’s self-serving to say “they don’t change their mind, I do” – despite
the fact that I didn’t. Our brains work in a Bayesian way – we have
priors that influence how we regard new information. As a scientist, it
is very important not to have overwhelmingly strong priors – you need to
be open to surprise and to let your priors be updated by new data. It’s
important to engage with new evidence. Being dogmatic is problematic.
This issue is amplified when, as now, scientists are talking directly to
the public…
Before the pandemic, scientists were rarely asked anything, or we were
listened to in a polite, slightly bored way. But now people are clinging
to the words of scientists, which can make it more difficult for them to
change their mind. Few scientists have changed their views on Covid but
when they do it’s often not well received – there’s an element of
groupthink and for more media-savvy scientists, an expectation from
their adoring crowd that they’re not meant to do that.
jeremy farrar on a balcony at the wellcome trust in central london
Jeremy Farrar: ‘A September 2020 lockdown would have saved a lot of lives’
Read more
Advertisement
Neil Ferguson has been criticised for his predictions of 100,000 cases a
day after the easing of restrictions on 19 July.
I know Neil, he was my boss for five years. His predictions were quite
pessimistic but he tends to be pessimistic – which isn’t a criticism. If
you are in a position of authority giving advice to the government you
really want to err on the side of caution.
Can you explain what you mean by “scientific populism”?
As the pandemic has advanced the mood of the public has become darker
and more fearful and this has created a market for gloom and doom. It’s
as bad as the effects of the super-optimism at the beginning – stay at
home for two weeks, it’s a mild disease or wear a mask and it will be
gone. So I kind of captured the market for corona centrism – not to be
systematically optimistic or pessimistic and to make it clear there are
major uncertainties. And this is empowering, because understanding
things is.
You’ve often stated that the pandemic will be over by mid to late 2021.
Do you stand by this?
Depends on how you quantify it. I would say the pandemic is over when
Covid-19 doesn’t cause significantly more mortality than other
respiratory viruses in circulation. This will happen first in places
such as the UK that have been privileged to get vaccine coverage – I
expect at the latest early next year.
--
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
https://www.avg.com
HeartDoc Andrew
Aug 8, 2021, 10:47:00 PM8/8/21
to
MichaelE wrote:
>http://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/07/prof-francois-balloux-the-pandemic-has-created-a-market-for-gloom-and-doom
>
>
>
>Ian Tucker
>Francois Balloux.
>‘From the start, the pandemic has been polarising’: Francois Balloux.
>Photograph: Dom Smaz/Imago/Hans Lucas
>The UCL scientist and ‘militant corona centrist’ on the risk of new
>variants, psychosomatic long Covid and when he expects the crisis to end
Actually, "long COVID" is **not** psychosomatic.
>http://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/aug/07/prof-francois-balloux-the-pandemic-has-created-a-market-for-gloom-and-doom
>
>
>
>Ian Tucker
>Francois Balloux.
>‘From the start, the pandemic has been polarising’: Francois Balloux.
>Photograph: Dom Smaz/Imago/Hans Lucas
>The UCL scientist and ‘militant corona centrist’ on the risk of new
>variants, psychosomatic long Covid and when he expects the crisis to end
smell.
the U.K. & elsewhere is by rapidly ( http://bit.ly/RapidTestCOVID-19 )
finding out at any given moment, including even while on-line, who
among us are unwittingly contagious (i.e pre-symptomatic or
asymptomatic) in order to http://bit.ly/convince_it_forward (John
15:12) for them to call their doctor and self-quarantine per their
doctor in hopes of stopping this pandemic. Thus, we're hoping for the
best while preparing for the worse-case scenario of the Alpha lineage
mutations and others like the Gamma, Beta, Epsilon, Iota, Lambda &
Delta lineage mutations combining to form hybrids that render current
COVID vaccines no longer effective.
Indeed, I am wonderfully hungry ( http://bit.ly/RapidTestCOVID-19 )
and hope you, Michael, also have a healthy appetite too.
So how are you ?
...because we mindfully choose to openly care with our heart,
HeartDoc Andrew <><
--
Andrew B. Chung, MD/PhD
Cardiologist with an http://HeartMDPhD.com/EternalMedicalLicense
2024 & upwards non-partisan candidate for U.S. President:
http://HeartMDPhD.com/WonderfullyHungryPresident
and author of the 2PD-OMER Approach:
http://HeartMDPhD.com/HeartDocAndrewCare
which is the only **healthy** cure for the U.S. healthcare crisis
Michael Ejercito
Aug 9, 2021, 11:12:18 AM8/9/21
to
Michael
HeartDoc Andrew
Aug 9, 2021, 1:53:13 PM8/9/21
to
MichaelE wrote:
> I am wonderfully hungry!
While wonderfully hungry in the Holy Spirit, Who causes (Deuteronomy
8:3) us to hunger, I note that you, Michael, not only don't have
COVID-19 but are rapture (Luke 17:37) ready and pray (2 Chronicles
7:14) that our Everlasting (Isaiah 9:6) Father in Heaven continues to
give us "much more" (Luke 11:13) Holy Spirit (Galatians 5:22-23) so
that we'd have much more of His Help to always say/write that we're
"wonderfully hungry" in **all** ways including especially caring to
http://bit.ly/convince_it_forward (John 15:12 as shown by
http://bit.ly/RapidTestCOVID-19 ) with all glory (
http://bit.ly/Psalm117_ ) to GOD (aka HaShem, Elohim, Abba, DEO), in
the name (John 16:23) of LORD Jesus Christ of Nazareth. Amen.
Laus DEO !
Suggested further reading:
https://groups.google.com/g/sci.med.cardiology/c/5EWtT4CwCOg/m/QjNF57xRBAAJ
Shorter link:
http://bit.ly/StatCOVID-19Test
Be hungrier, which really is wonderfully healthier especially for
diabetics and other heart disease patients:
http://HeartMDPhD.com/HeartDocAndrewToutsHunger (Luke 6:21a) with all
glory ( http://HeartMDPhD.com/Psalm117_ ) to GOD, Who causes us to
hunger (Deuteronomy 8:3) when He blesses us right now (Luke 6:21a)
thereby removing the http://HeartMDPhD.com/VAT from around the heart
...because we mindfully choose to openly care with our heart,
HeartDoc Andrew <><
While wonderfully hungry in the Holy Spirit, Who causes (Deuteronomy
8:3) us to hunger, I note that you, Michael, not only don't have
COVID-19 but are rapture (Luke 17:37) ready and pray (2 Chronicles
7:14) that our Everlasting (Isaiah 9:6) Father in Heaven continues to
give us "much more" (Luke 11:13) Holy Spirit (Galatians 5:22-23) so
that we'd have much more of His Help to always say/write that we're
"wonderfully hungry" in **all** ways including especially caring to
http://bit.ly/convince_it_forward (John 15:12 as shown by
http://bit.ly/RapidTestCOVID-19 ) with all glory (
http://bit.ly/Psalm117_ ) to GOD (aka HaShem, Elohim, Abba, DEO), in
the name (John 16:23) of LORD Jesus Christ of Nazareth. Amen.
Laus DEO !
Suggested further reading:
https://groups.google.com/g/sci.med.cardiology/c/5EWtT4CwCOg/m/QjNF57xRBAAJ
Shorter link:
http://bit.ly/StatCOVID-19Test
Be hungrier, which really is wonderfully healthier especially for
diabetics and other heart disease patients:
http://HeartMDPhD.com/HeartDocAndrewToutsHunger (Luke 6:21a) with all
glory ( http://HeartMDPhD.com/Psalm117_ ) to GOD, Who causes us to
hunger (Deuteronomy 8:3) when He blesses us right now (Luke 6:21a)
thereby removing the http://HeartMDPhD.com/VAT from around the heart
...because we mindfully choose to openly care with our heart,
HeartDoc Andrew <><
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