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Did shutting down outdoor dining contribute to California's COVID-19 surge?
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Michael Ejercito
Jan 21, 2021, 9:28:43 AM1/21/21
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http://outline.com/AgwNES
Did shutting down outdoor dining contribute to California's COVID-19 surge?
ERIC TING JANUARY 20, 2021
A pair of diners enjoy their meal at Wayfare Tavern in its outdoor space
in October 2020. On Dec. 6, San Francisco shut down outdoor dining once
again.Blair Heagerty / SFGATE
“If we have people and give them an outlet for entertainment in the
restaurant space, in the bar space, we have much more of an opportunity,
in my view, to be able to regulate and control that environment,”
Lightfoot said. “People are engaging in risky behavior that is not only
putting themselves at risk, but putting their families, their co-workers
and other ones at risk. Let’s bring it out of the shadows."
Lightfoot is specifically talking about reopening indoor dining — an
activity that has been directly linked to increased COVID-19
transmission. There has been no such linkage between outdoor dining and
COVID-19 transmission, but California banned the activity in most of the
state in early December, despite being one of the few states with a
winter climate that would support it.
Despite the ban, California has had one of the worst winter COVID-19
surges in the country, which begs the following question: Is it possible
that shutting down outdoor dining made the state's surge even worse?
Dr. Monica Gandhi, an infectious disease expert at UCSF, believes it's
highly likely.
"We won’t be able to know the exact percentage it drove, but I would say
closing outdoor dining certainly did not help and likely hindered
efforts to avoid a surge," she said. "It shut down in early December,
and things did not get better from there; things actually got worse.
Restrictions should be about understanding the human condition and
keeping places that are safe open. Those of us who argue for a harm
reduction approach have the same goal as the lockdownists: We want to
reduce transmission, but we understand the human condition and the need
to be with people."
When announcing the new stay-at-home order, Gov. Gavin Newsom and
California Secretary of Health and Human Services Dr. Mark Ghaly were
repeatedly asked to show evidence that outdoor dining contributes to the
surge of COVID-19. They provided no such evidence and said that the new
business closures were about sending a message to minimize mixing.
Californians apparently didn't get the memo. Gandhi, like many who live
in the state, knows of several people in her social circles who
continued to meet up despite the stay-at-home order, turning outdoor
dining plans into much riskier at-home gatherings.
"I do know that people were far less compliant with this last order,"
she said. "The state had less of an understanding that people were going
to gather, and not because they weren't worried, or because they didn’t
believe in COVID, but they believed they had a knowledge base from the
media about what keeps us safe. With outdoor dining closed, they said,
'Let’s go inside with masks and distancing.' Of course, not everyone
stuck to their masks and distancing plans once they went inside. You
obviously have to take your mask off to eat, and the virus spreads much
more easily indoors."
It will be difficult, if not impossible, to quantitatively determine how
much of an impact banning outdoor dining had on the surge. But Gandhi
believes that logic and overwhelming anecdotal evidence are enough to
tell us it had a clear impact.
Some saw this coming.
"It actually seems these sorts of Draconian measures are pushing people
into unsafe situations in private homes where safety guidelines cannot
be guaranteed, enforced or even expected," Tony Granieri, owner of the
Oakland restaurants Brotzeit Lokal and the now-shuttered Magpie, told
SFGATE of the stay-at-home order in December.
"We constantly hear that the spread is occurring through private parties
and yet we small business owners, doing everything we can to uphold the
health standards, are being forced to cut staff and close down without
any evidence that we are contributing to the spread," added Sean
Sullivan, owner of the Port Bar, the last LGBT bar still open in Oakland.
Gandhi's "harm reduction" approach calls for recognizing that people are
going to gather regardless of any decrees the state and counties might
issue. In her view, officials should work to provide guidance on how to
make activities as safe as possible.
"At this point in the pandemic, people will gather because they're
lonely," she said. "We should have instead figured out how to mitigate
risk instead of giving people an absolute no."
Did shutting down outdoor dining contribute to California's COVID-19 surge?
ERIC TING JANUARY 20, 2021
A pair of diners enjoy their meal at Wayfare Tavern in its outdoor space
in October 2020. On Dec. 6, San Francisco shut down outdoor dining once
again.Blair Heagerty / SFGATE
“If we have people and give them an outlet for entertainment in the
restaurant space, in the bar space, we have much more of an opportunity,
in my view, to be able to regulate and control that environment,”
Lightfoot said. “People are engaging in risky behavior that is not only
putting themselves at risk, but putting their families, their co-workers
and other ones at risk. Let’s bring it out of the shadows."
Lightfoot is specifically talking about reopening indoor dining — an
activity that has been directly linked to increased COVID-19
transmission. There has been no such linkage between outdoor dining and
COVID-19 transmission, but California banned the activity in most of the
state in early December, despite being one of the few states with a
winter climate that would support it.
Despite the ban, California has had one of the worst winter COVID-19
surges in the country, which begs the following question: Is it possible
that shutting down outdoor dining made the state's surge even worse?
Dr. Monica Gandhi, an infectious disease expert at UCSF, believes it's
highly likely.
"We won’t be able to know the exact percentage it drove, but I would say
closing outdoor dining certainly did not help and likely hindered
efforts to avoid a surge," she said. "It shut down in early December,
and things did not get better from there; things actually got worse.
Restrictions should be about understanding the human condition and
keeping places that are safe open. Those of us who argue for a harm
reduction approach have the same goal as the lockdownists: We want to
reduce transmission, but we understand the human condition and the need
to be with people."
When announcing the new stay-at-home order, Gov. Gavin Newsom and
California Secretary of Health and Human Services Dr. Mark Ghaly were
repeatedly asked to show evidence that outdoor dining contributes to the
surge of COVID-19. They provided no such evidence and said that the new
business closures were about sending a message to minimize mixing.
Californians apparently didn't get the memo. Gandhi, like many who live
in the state, knows of several people in her social circles who
continued to meet up despite the stay-at-home order, turning outdoor
dining plans into much riskier at-home gatherings.
"I do know that people were far less compliant with this last order,"
she said. "The state had less of an understanding that people were going
to gather, and not because they weren't worried, or because they didn’t
believe in COVID, but they believed they had a knowledge base from the
media about what keeps us safe. With outdoor dining closed, they said,
'Let’s go inside with masks and distancing.' Of course, not everyone
stuck to their masks and distancing plans once they went inside. You
obviously have to take your mask off to eat, and the virus spreads much
more easily indoors."
It will be difficult, if not impossible, to quantitatively determine how
much of an impact banning outdoor dining had on the surge. But Gandhi
believes that logic and overwhelming anecdotal evidence are enough to
tell us it had a clear impact.
Some saw this coming.
"It actually seems these sorts of Draconian measures are pushing people
into unsafe situations in private homes where safety guidelines cannot
be guaranteed, enforced or even expected," Tony Granieri, owner of the
Oakland restaurants Brotzeit Lokal and the now-shuttered Magpie, told
SFGATE of the stay-at-home order in December.
"We constantly hear that the spread is occurring through private parties
and yet we small business owners, doing everything we can to uphold the
health standards, are being forced to cut staff and close down without
any evidence that we are contributing to the spread," added Sean
Sullivan, owner of the Port Bar, the last LGBT bar still open in Oakland.
Gandhi's "harm reduction" approach calls for recognizing that people are
going to gather regardless of any decrees the state and counties might
issue. In her view, officials should work to provide guidance on how to
make activities as safe as possible.
"At this point in the pandemic, people will gather because they're
lonely," she said. "We should have instead figured out how to mitigate
risk instead of giving people an absolute no."
Andrew B. Chung, MD/PhD
Jan 21, 2021, 9:48:32 AM1/21/21
to
elsewhere is by rapidly ( http://bit.ly/RapidTestCOVID-19 ) finding
out at any given moment, including even while on-line, who among us
are unwittingly contagious (i.e pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic) in
order to http://bit.ly/ConvinceItForward (John 15:12) for them to call
their doctor and self-quarantine per their doctor in hopes of stopping
this pandemic. Thus, hoping for the best while preparing for the
worst-case scenario of the "UK variant mutations" **and** others like
the South African & "cluster-5 mink mutations" (read more via Google)
rendering current vaccines ineffective.
Indeed, I am wonderfully hungry ( http://bit.ly/RapidTestCOVID-19 )
and hope you, Michael, also have a healthy appetite too.
So how are you ?
...because we mindfully choose to openly care with our heart,
HeartDoc Andrew <><
--
Andrew B. Chung, MD/PhD
Cardiologist with an http://bit.ly/EternalMedicalLicense
2016 & upwards non-partisan candidate for U.S. President:
http://bit.ly/WonderfullyHungryPresident
and author of the 2PD-OMER Approach:
http://bit.ly/HeartDocAndrewCare
which is the only **healthy** cure for the U.S. healthcare crisis
Michael Ejercito
Jan 21, 2021, 10:10:54 AM1/21/21
to
>
> Indeed, I am wonderfully hungry ( http://bit.ly/RapidTestCOVID-19 )
> and hope you, Michael, also have a healthy appetite too.
>
> So how are you ?
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> ...because we mindfully choose to openly care with our heart,
>
> HeartDoc Andrew <><
>
Michael
Andrew B. Chung, MD/PhD
Jan 21, 2021, 12:12:25 PM1/21/21
to
MichaelE wrote:
As soon as we hear/see ourselves say/write that we're "wonderfully
hungry" when either greeting or being greeted, we're allowed to know
that we are not contagious because we are not infected by the COVID-19
coronavirus.
>> Indeed, I am wonderfully hungry ( http://bit.ly/RapidTestCOVID-19 )
>> and hope you, Michael, also have a healthy appetite too.
>>
>> So how are you ?
>
> I am wonderfully hungry!
While wonderfully hungry in the Holy Spirit, Who causes (Deuteronomy
8:3) us to hunger, I note that you, Michael, not only don't have
COVID-19 but are rapture (Luke 17:37) ready and pray (2 Chronicles
7:14) that our Everlasting (Isaiah 9:6) Father in Heaven continues to
give us "much more" (Luke 11:13) Holy Spirit (Galatians 5:22-23) so
that we'd have much more of His Help to always say/write that we're
"wonderfully hungry" in **all** ways including especially caring to
http://bit.ly/ConvinceItForward (John 15:12 as shown by
http://bit.ly/RapidTestCOVID-19 ) with all glory (
http://bit.ly/Psalm117_ ) to GOD (aka HaShem, Elohim, Abba, DEO), in
the name (John 16:23) of LORD Jesus Christ of Nazareth. Amen.
Laus DEO !
Be hungrier, which really is wonderfully healthier especially for
diabetics and other heart disease patients:
http://bit.ly/HeartDocAndrewToutsHunger (Luke 6:21a) with all glory to
GOD, Who causes us to hunger (Deuteronomy 8:3) when He blesses us
right now (Luke 6:21a) thereby removing the http://bit.ly/HeartVAT
from around the heart
...because we mindfully choose to openly care with our heart,
HeartDoc Andrew <><
hungry" when either greeting or being greeted, we're allowed to know
that we are not contagious because we are not infected by the COVID-19
coronavirus.
>> Indeed, I am wonderfully hungry ( http://bit.ly/RapidTestCOVID-19 )
>> and hope you, Michael, also have a healthy appetite too.
>>
>> So how are you ?
>
While wonderfully hungry in the Holy Spirit, Who causes (Deuteronomy
8:3) us to hunger, I note that you, Michael, not only don't have
COVID-19 but are rapture (Luke 17:37) ready and pray (2 Chronicles
7:14) that our Everlasting (Isaiah 9:6) Father in Heaven continues to
give us "much more" (Luke 11:13) Holy Spirit (Galatians 5:22-23) so
that we'd have much more of His Help to always say/write that we're
"wonderfully hungry" in **all** ways including especially caring to
http://bit.ly/ConvinceItForward (John 15:12 as shown by
http://bit.ly/RapidTestCOVID-19 ) with all glory (
http://bit.ly/Psalm117_ ) to GOD (aka HaShem, Elohim, Abba, DEO), in
the name (John 16:23) of LORD Jesus Christ of Nazareth. Amen.
Laus DEO !
Be hungrier, which really is wonderfully healthier especially for
diabetics and other heart disease patients:
http://bit.ly/HeartDocAndrewToutsHunger (Luke 6:21a) with all glory to
GOD, Who causes us to hunger (Deuteronomy 8:3) when He blesses us
right now (Luke 6:21a) thereby removing the http://bit.ly/HeartVAT
from around the heart
...because we mindfully choose to openly care with our heart,
HeartDoc Andrew <><
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