Google Groups no longer supports new Usenet posts or subscriptions. Historical content remains viewable.
Dismiss

Covid 19 coronavirus: New Zealand's elimination plan 'let down by allies'

7 views
Skip to first unread message

Michael Ejercito

unread,
Aug 12, 2021, 10:28:38 AM8/12/21
to
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/politics/covid-19-coronavirus-new-zealands-elimination-plan-let-down-by-allies/LCZF5AZYNXLVNGIOKUVEFD25UY/


Covid 19 coronavirus: New Zealand's elimination plan 'let down by allies'
11 Aug, 2021 03:15 PM
11 minutes to read
Play VideoVideo will play in
Play nowDon't auto play
Never auto play
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has set out a plan to start re-opening the
borders, starting with a trial this year of home isolation or shorter
MIQ stays for selected travellers

Derek Cheng
By: Derek Cheng
Derek Cheng is deputy political editor for the New Zealand Herald

derek...@nzme.co.nz
18
Leading epidemiologist Sir David Skegg says New Zealand has been "let
down by its allies" in its fight to eliminate Covid-19.

Skegg is the chair of an independent panel of experts who yesterday
provided advice to the Government on its ongoing Covid response strategy.

The Prime Minister responded this morning. She has set out a plan to
start re-opening the borders from next year, starting with a trial
between October and December of self-isolation for vaccinated New
Zealanders arriving back into the country.

That would be followed by the phased resumption of quarantine-free
travel in the future. The plan would eventually see three "pathways of
travel" into New Zealand.

ADVERTISEMENT

Advertise with NZME.
For full coverage of the Government's blueprint, click here

Virus 'still winning the war'
Speaking at this morning's press conference, Skegg said despite vaccine
development the virus was "still winning the war".

New Zealand's allies could have pursued an elimination strategy, Skegg
said, but they chose not to.

Make a beeline for the beehive
Get weekly politics headlines with commentary from our political experts
straight to your inbox.
Enter your email address
SIGN UP
By signing up for this newsletter, you agree to NZME’s Terms of Use and
Privacy Policy.
"Many of the countries that could have eliminated Covid-19 either never
tried, or threw in the towel."

Each country had done its own thing. The independent channel chaired by
Helen Clark showed a weakened World Health Organisation unable to
provide the leadership required.

There were also new variants, including Delta, making the virus more
difficult to control.

Related articles
NEW ZEALAND
|
Politics
Squeeze on MIQ spaces as Government increases its own allocation
10 Aug, 2021 09:23 PM
Quick Read
BUSINESS
Tauranga port's exposure to Covid ship erodes faith in system - port chair
10 Aug, 2021 10:33 PM
Quick Read
POLITICS
Derek Cheng: The political headache awaiting Jacinda Ardern
11 Aug, 2021 10:00 AM
Quick Read
NEW ZEALAND
|
Politics
Only half of contracted port workers vaccinated - Hipkins
11 Aug, 2021 10:00 AM
Quick Read
Referencing Winston Churchill, Skegg asked how he could have had a
detailed plan to defeat the enemy at the beginning of the war.

"Nor can we pretend to have a detailed plan with how we can reconnect
with the world over the next year or two."

ADVERTISEMENT

Advertise with NZME.
The priority was to get as many New Zealanders as possible protected by
vaccination by the end of the year. But by then there could be a new
variant, more challenging than Delta.


There would be, though, more known about vaccine efficacy, better
testing, and even potentially anti-viral technology that could
"completely change our attitude to this virus".

There however still needed to be a strategy, he said. The first question
his group looked at was if elimination was still viable. Many people had
said elimination was impossible.

"Well they were wrong," Skegg said.

He compared the New Zealand situation with that of Scotland, which had a
similar population. Here 26 people had died; there more than 10,000.

"We dodged a bullet," Skegg said.

But reopening borders and new variants raised further questions. The
experts concluded that at this stage elimination was not only viable but
the best option.

"It allows us to enjoy a lifestyle relatively unaffected by the ravages
of Covid-19 and protect our health service and economy."

The United Kingdom had a great vaccination rollout, with 84 per cent of
adults having antibodies from vaccination or past infection. Yet last
week they still had 627 deaths from Covid - equivalent of 48 a week
here, based on population.

There were also heavy social and work restrictions, with enforced mask
use and a fear of contagion.

This was a real thing in the world today.

"I hope not to spend the rest of my life shielding from others. I don't
want to spend the rest of my life looking at beautiful faces covered by
masks. We are going for gold and we may not succeed, if we don't achieve
high vaccination."

Along with high vaccination there also needed to remain precautions at
the border.

The group had suggested a gradual reopening, with quarantine-free travel
from low and medium-risk countries, with proof of vaccination, testing
and contact tracing measures.

This would occur from the beginning of next year, when everybody had a
chance to be vaccinated.

The group did not favour setting a vaccination target, rather aiming for
getting everybody vaccinated.

Lockdowns destroy business confidence: Rob Fyfe
Rob Fyfe told the press conference that, looking through a business
lens, what destroyed confidence and viability was lockdowns.

"Businesses need to do everything they can to support people to be
vaccinated."

There were many tools, including border measures, but lockdowns were the
inevitable consequence where they failed.

Businesses could help people be available to be vaccinated and create
understanding.

They could also encourage QR scanning and testing.

Strategies need to recognise Māori community
Dr Maia Brewerton said in terms of the Māori response, it was important
the strategies and vaccination rollout recognised community.

"At the heart of being Māori, you put your whānau and community ahead of
yourself. That was very much what happened around New Zealand. It is not
unique to Māori ... but it is very important what we do is led by our
communities."

It was clear from the rollout not one size fit all. The rollout needed
to be dynamic, adapt where needed, especially to reach out to the
marginalised and vulnerable.

"We need to focus on those who are not accessing the vaccine, change the
rollout if need be to meet those people, ask what we can do differently.
Nobody knows a community like that community, a whānau like that whānau.
People want the vaccine, but are not able to access it."

The Pasifika perspective
Dr Api Talemaitoga said equity needed to be at the heart of the
vaccination rollout.

From a Pasifika perspective, there needed to be greater focus on
education, location of vaccinations, but also on community.

It was worrying that hesitancy was used as a blame, and took away the
focus from education.

In terms of venue, Talemaitoga said it needed to be centred around the
community and what those communities value.

'If we do our jobs well we will get high rates of coverage': Bloomfield
Dr Ashley Bloomfield said he never felt vaccine hesitancy was the problem.

"We know most people if they have information from someone they trust,
offered a vaccine in a setting by someone they trust they take up that
offer. If we do our job well we will get high rates of coverage."

Skegg said it was important as many as possible were vaccinated, because
if not it would be less effective.

It could mean the health service would be swamped, meaning delays for
elective surgery, and for things like cancer, heart attacks and stroke.

"I hope we can be unselfish and care about each other, we also need to
care about the whole.

"I hope we can beat the world at vaccination as well."

Asked about 12- to 15-year-olds being vaccinated before the school
holidays, Bloomfield said "watch this space".

They were still awaiting trial results and evidence around efficacy and
safety.

"We are watching like a hawk," he said.

'We have to open up': John Key
Meanwhile, former NZ Prime Minister Sir John Key says the Government
should adopt a telethon-style approach to boost vaccination numbers and
open up our borders by Christmas.

Key told Newstalk ZB's Mike Hosking this morning that, rather than
aiming for elimination, the focus should switch to relaxing travel bans
and getting everyone a double jab in the coming months.

"We have to open up. We can't sit back forever where businesses and
families can't get in or out of New Zealand."

With the elimination strategy being abandoned in countries across the
globe, including Australia, the Government should admit it was no longer
a viable strategy, Key said.

Instead, it was important to get the population fully vaccinated and
live with the virus.

Key said the way to achieve this was to set vaccination targets that
were constantly screened, very much like telethon target totals.

"If you sit there and are going to say we are going to open up the
borders by Christmas and we're going to give everyone the chance to be
double jabbed by Christmas, why wouldn't you just be constantly running
it on the corner of the TV every single day between now and then with
the days left and the number of people jabbed?" he asked.

Earlier advice painted sobering picture
His comments came after Sir David Skegg said borders will re-open next
year after the vaccine rollout finishes, but only then will experts be
able to see if enough of the population is vaccinated to stay the
elimination course.

Skegg was speaking to the Herald after an expert panel he chairs
released its advice to the Government, and ahead of today's press
conference.

The group's advice, released yesterday, paints a sobering picture of an
uncertain future in a world still gripped by Covid-19, where overseas
travel is limited to the fully vaccinated and herd immunity is
unattainable, making public health measures an important part of the
elimination puzzle as border restrictions are eased.

The advice included a caveat that no one really knows what the Covid-hit
world will look like in three to five years, or even in six months'
time, which makes making promises about when the borders will reopen
problematic.

Sir David Skegg chairs an expert panel advising the Government on how
borders should re-open. Photo / Supplied
Sir David Skegg chairs an expert panel advising the Government on how
borders should re-open. Photo / Supplied

That was in part the reason the group didn't provide a target for when
the borders could start to re-open and enough people were vaccinated for
life to continue much as it does now - with few community Covid cases
that are quickly stamped out as they arise.

Skegg added that the number of unvaccinated port workers at the border
remained "a major concern", especially in light of the 98 port workers
in Tauranga who had a Covid-scare with the Rio de la Plata - only nine
of them were fully vaccinated.

"I was shocked by the low vaccination uptake by port workers in
Tauranga. Hopefully this is now being addressed."

In Australia, an expert panel similar to Skegg's one has suggested 80
per cent vaccination coverage of the eligible population before
international travel might be opened up more.

Read More
Covid 19 coronavirus: Fully vaccinated Kiwis coming home first cab off
the rank for shorter MIQ...
The Spinoff: Three big questions as Ardern prepares the post-Covid
roadmap - NZ Herald
Covid 19 coronavirus: Preparations into opening up Fortress NZ are
underway. What will 2022 loo...
Covid 19 coronavirus: Eight-week wait between vaccinations could be
recommended says Ashley Blo...
"There is no way of determining this [level of vaccination coverage]
with any precision," Skegg told the Herald.

"We assume the re-opening of borders will start in a phased and
carefully monitored way early next year, when the vaccination rollout is
completed.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is responding to the expert panel, chaired
by Sir David Skegg, today. Photo / Mark Mitchell
Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is responding to the expert panel, chaired
by Sir David Skegg, today. Photo / Mark Mitchell

"Then we will discover whether the vaccination coverage achieved,
together with our recommended precautions, such as rapid testing of
travellers on arrival, plus strengthened public health and social
measures, will be enough to maintain elimination of Covid-19."

More open borders would inevitably lead to some outbreaks, but with a
high level of vaccination coverage and public health measures -
including localised lockdowns - these could be quickly stamped out.

Skegg said having large cohorts of unvaccinated people in different
pockets of New Zealand could endanger not only them, but the vaccinated
as well.

"The hospitals would be swamped and that would affect all kinds of
people, including those needing urgent cancer treatment. That has been a
major problem in other countries, such as the UK."


The first phase of the re-opening, the group suggested, should be for
fully vaccinated Kiwi travellers returning from short overseas trips to
low-risk countries.

That was in part because their vaccination status would be reliably
known, including which vaccine they've had - aspects that may not be so
easy to certify in other travellers.

Skegg couldn't say how long it would take to transition from there to
quarantine-free entry, but piloting each phase would provide some
insights to the timeline.

He said it would be ideal if the quarantine-free travel bubbles with
Australia and the Cook Islands became travel corridors for the fully
vaccinated.

That is already in the Government's thinking.

Covid-19 Response Minister Chris Hipkins said yesterday re-opening the
transtasman travel bubble might only happen for New Zealand citizens or
those who are fully vaccinated.

Covid
The panel also points out the health system is still poorly resourced,
and Skegg has recommended a review of how the system would deal with
Covid-19 outbreaks.

"The relatively low provision of ICU beds per capita is certainly a
concern."

It was difficult to say for how long Covid-19 outbreaks and the
possibility of localised lockdowns would be part of the new normal.

"It is too hard to predict. This pandemic keeps surprising everyone, and
that is likely to continue."



--
This email has been checked for viruses by AVG.
https://www.avg.com

HeartDoc Andrew

unread,
Aug 12, 2021, 11:57:46 AM8/12/21
to
>?
>Strategies need to recognise M?ori community
>Dr Maia Brewerton said in terms of the M?ori response, it was important
>the strategies and vaccination rollout recognised community.
>
>"At the heart of being M?ori, you put your wh?nau and community ahead of
>yourself. That was very much what happened around New Zealand. It is not
>unique to M?ori ... but it is very important what we do is led by our
>communities."
>
>It was clear from the rollout not one size fit all. The rollout needed
>to be dynamic, adapt where needed, especially to reach out to the
>marginalised and vulnerable.
>
>"We need to focus on those who are not accessing the vaccine, change the
>rollout if need be to meet those people, ask what we can do differently.
>Nobody knows a community like that community, a wh?nau like that wh?nau.
The only *healthy* way to stop the pandemic, thereby saving lives, in
N.Z. & elsewhere is by rapidly ( http://bit.ly/RapidTestCOVID-19 )
finding out at any given moment, including even while on-line, who
among us are unwittingly contagious (i.e pre-symptomatic or
asymptomatic) in order to http://bit.ly/convince_it_forward (John
15:12) for them to call their doctor and self-quarantine per their
doctor in hopes of stopping this pandemic. Thus, we're hoping for the
best while preparing for the worse-case scenario of the Alpha lineage
mutations and others like the Gamma, Beta, Epsilon, Iota, Lambda &
Delta lineage mutations combining to form hybrids that render current
COVID vaccines no longer effective.

Indeed, I am wonderfully hungry ( http://bit.ly/RapidTestCOVID-19 )
and hope you, Michael, also have a healthy appetite too.

So how are you ?








...because we mindfully choose to openly care with our heart,

HeartDoc Andrew <><
--
Andrew B. Chung, MD/PhD
Cardiologist with an http://HeartMDPhD.com/EternalMedicalLicense
2024 & upwards non-partisan candidate for U.S. President:
http://HeartMDPhD.com/WonderfullyHungryPresident
and author of the 2PD-OMER Approach:
http://HeartMDPhD.com/HeartDocAndrewCare
which is the only **healthy** cure for the U.S. healthcare crisis

Michael Ejercito

unread,
Aug 13, 2021, 12:16:35 AM8/13/21
to
I am wonderfully hungry!


Michael

HeartDoc Andrew

unread,
Aug 13, 2021, 12:25:52 AM8/13/21
to
MichaelE wrote:
> I am wonderfully hungry!



While wonderfully hungry in the Holy Spirit, Who causes (Deuteronomy
8:3) us to hunger, I note that you, Michael, not only don't have
COVID-19 but are rapture (Luke 17:37) ready and pray (2 Chronicles
7:14) that our Everlasting (Isaiah 9:6) Father in Heaven continues to
give us "much more" (Luke 11:13) Holy Spirit (Galatians 5:22-23) so
that we'd have much more of His Help to always say/write that we're
"wonderfully hungry" in **all** ways including especially caring to
http://bit.ly/convince_it_forward (John 15:12 as shown by
http://bit.ly/RapidTestCOVID-19 ) with all glory (
http://bit.ly/Psalm117_ ) to GOD (aka HaShem, Elohim, Abba, DEO), in
the name (John 16:23) of LORD Jesus Christ of Nazareth. Amen.

Laus DEO !

Suggested further reading:
https://groups.google.com/g/sci.med.cardiology/c/5EWtT4CwCOg/m/QjNF57xRBAAJ

Shorter link:
http://bit.ly/StatCOVID-19Test

Be hungrier, which really is wonderfully healthier especially for
diabetics and other heart disease patients:

http://HeartMDPhD.com/HeartDocAndrewToutsHunger (Luke 6:21a) with all
glory ( http://HeartMDPhD.com/Psalm117_ ) to GOD, Who causes us to
hunger (Deuteronomy 8:3) when He blesses us right now (Luke 6:21a)
thereby removing the http://HeartMDPhD.com/VAT from around the heart

...because we mindfully choose to openly care with our heart,

HeartDoc Andrew <><
0 new messages