any successful stories of gambling using those math/stat theorems?
kiki
I recently learned a lot about gambler's ruin, random walks, and gambling
problems... I am wondering if these maths are really useful in Las Vegas and
casinos... Can anybody telll some successful stories of gambling using
math/stat as tools? I really need some motivation of learning deeper
maths/stat about these gambling theories...
thanks a lot!
Kafir
"kiki" <luna...@yahoo.com> wrote in message
news:cqlkqs$dve$1...@news.Stanford.EDU...
Yes, All of the games have probabilities calculated out and the odds are
know by the casino.
You can calculate them out to with math/stat/prob. but you can't change the
game.
You can't really determine winning numbers.
You can determine which game has better payout with probability.
(all these lose money in the long run)
Blackjack - good
Roulette - odds are poor
and so on
Aleks Jakulin
kiki:
Albert Collins
to succeed in this line of work.
Mack
Card counting works with blackjack
Craps is a matter of knowing when to bet and when not
Roulette although it has poor odds is the only game where
a group of mathematicians went in and broke the bank. It seems
that they were able to calculate which numbers came up more often
because the wheel is never 100% balanced. The story is rather
famous I believe.
Leslie 'Mack' McBride
remove text between _ marks to respond via e-mail
Richard Henry
"Mack" <macckone@a_nospamjunk123_ol.com> wrote in message
news:ehpts0115pde9aijm...@4ax.com...
Proven true. However, you need to know how to work the system, find a
casino that is vulnerable (single deck, wide bet-amount tolerance), and not
get thrown out or arrested.
> Craps is a matter of knowing when to bet and when not
That is true only if you never bet.
> Roulette although it has poor odds is the only game where
> a group of mathematicians went in and broke the bank. It seems
> that they were able to calculate which numbers came up more often
> because the wheel is never 100% balanced. The story is rather
> famous I believe.
It has never been proven to be anything more than a way to sell books.
Anyone who thinks a roulette spin can be predicted doesn't understand the
variables involved. The legend is probably helped along by stories of
crooked wheels and friendly croupiers, as in the movie "Casablanca".
R. Martin
In the book _Fractals, Chaos, Power Laws: Minutes from an Infinite
Paradise_ by Manfred Robert Schroeder, the author mentions a system
for beating roulette based on probability, the laws of motion, and
a small, special purpose computer. IMO the book is a very good read
for that story and many other interesting topics it presents.
Cheers,
Russell
--
All too often the study of data requires care.
John Bailey
Card counting and Kelly Betting seem to be the most rational
applications of well defined math to gambling.
http://www.ehow.com/how_4369_count-cards.html
http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/kelly/kelly.htm
I believe enough in Kelly Betting that I applied it to the problem of
deciding how much investment should be in stocks and how much in fixed
income securities.
http://home.rochester.rr.com/jbxroads/kelly/
This worked great through the recent market collapse.
Based on your question, I looked for results from Kelly Betting using
a Google search. The ratio of results available to papers on how to
do it are rather slim.
My favorite success story is Doan Farmer's. AISTR, while at
university he and two others made a run on the casinos. Farmer went
on to fame and fortune but also sold a screenplay about his teams
success in Las Vegas. In an earlier time it was listed on his cv at
the Santa Fe Institute. http://www.santafe.edu/~jdf/
John Bailey
http://home.rochester.rr.com/jbxroads/mailto.html
kiki
"Richard Henry" <rph...@home.com> wrote in message
news:CdCzd.4403$yW5.712@fed1read02...
By doing math to help win I will get arrested?
kiki
That's great! Do you know the algorithm how they defeat the roulette and is
that technique still
applicable?
kiki
"John Bailey" <john_...@rochester.rr.com> wrote in message
news:41cf0fc9....@news-server.rochester.rr.com...
That's cool! thanks a lot! so you are an expert in gambling?
So if I apply the card-counting to blackjack, I will be arrested in Las
Vegas,
But I won't have trouble on online casinos, right?
Richard Henry
>
>
> By doing math to help win I will get arrested?
It is illegal to use any mechanical, electric, or calculating device to
assist you. Even if you do it all in your head, it is illegal to count
cards.
Nice business, that casino business, eh?
Mack
wrote:
Some bets pay decent odds giving you a better chance of winning ...
others are "sucker bets". Playing on-line removes any "skill" a dice
thrower might have as well as having absolutely balanced dice. Real
dice are seldom absolutely balanced.
>
>> Roulette although it has poor odds is the only game where
>> a group of mathematicians went in and broke the bank. It seems
>> that they were able to calculate which numbers came up more often
>> because the wheel is never 100% balanced. The story is rather
>> famous I believe.
>
>It has never been proven to be anything more than a way to sell books.
>Anyone who thinks a roulette spin can be predicted doesn't understand the
>variables involved. The legend is probably helped along by stories of
>crooked wheels and friendly croupiers, as in the movie "Casablanca".
>
There are a lot of variables involved. The group that did this (in
europe) spent some time analyzing one particular wheel. A
variance of 4% is sufficient to turn roulette into a winning game
at odds of 35:1. American roulette wheels have an extra space
giving the house an added advantage. An on-line roulette wheel
is guaranteed to be balanced so there is no advantage the same
is not true of a mechanical wheel.
Timothy Little
> An on-line roulette wheel is guaranteed to be balanced so there is
> no advantage the same is not true of a mechanical wheel.
I wouldn't be surprised if there were online casinos with unbalanced
"wheels", weighted in favour of the house. It would be a pretty
trivial programming task to look at the current bets for a given spin,
and adjust the probabilities enough to make a difference in the long
term but not enough to be detectable in the short-medium term.
Of course the house already has a guaranteed long-run advantage for an
unweighted wheel, so they'd have to be pretty greedy.
- Tim
Richard Henry
> On Sun, 26 Dec 2004 09:07:48 -0800, "Richard Henry" <rph...@home.com>
> wrote:
>
> >
> >"Mack" <macckone@a_nospamjunk123_ol.com> wrote in message
> >news:ehpts0115pde9aijm...@4ax.com...
> >> Craps is a matter of knowing when to bet and when not
> >
> >That is true only if you never bet.
>
> Some bets pay decent odds giving you a better chance of winning ...
> others are "sucker bets". Playing on-line removes any "skill" a dice
> thrower might have as well as having absolutely balanced dice. Real
> dice are seldom absolutely balanced.
All bets allowed on the table are guaranteed to pay something to the house,
in the long run. I admit that some bets have better odds for the house than
others. However, unless you accept the entertainment or "comp" value of the
game to be sufficient to offset the house advantage, all craps bets are
sucker bets.
Mack
wrote:
>
>"Mack" <macckone@a_nospamjunk123_ol.com> wrote in message
>news:utbvs0pjrf9rirmh9...@4ax.com...
>> On Sun, 26 Dec 2004 09:07:48 -0800, "Richard Henry" <rph...@home.com>
>> wrote:
>>
>> >
>> >"Mack" <macckone@a_nospamjunk123_ol.com> wrote in message
>> >news:ehpts0115pde9aijm...@4ax.com...
>
>> >> Craps is a matter of knowing when to bet and when not
>> >
>> >That is true only if you never bet.
>>
>> Some bets pay decent odds giving you a better chance of winning ...
>> others are "sucker bets". Playing on-line removes any "skill" a dice
>> thrower might have as well as having absolutely balanced dice. Real
>> dice are seldom absolutely balanced.
>
>All bets allowed on the table are guaranteed to pay something to the house,
>in the long run. I admit that some bets have better odds for the house than
>others. However, unless you accept the entertainment or "comp" value of the
>game to be sufficient to offset the house advantage, all craps bets are
>sucker bets.
>
Agreed the house always has some advantage in craps with perfect dice.
Dice, however, aren't perfect. Since the house odds are only about
1.5% a "hot" pair of dice can offer a significant advantage.
Shooters will ask for "cold" dice to be replaced. However the house
will replace a pair of dice that seems to be "hot" if a significant
amount of money is won. 24 rolls (usually about 5 shooters) are all
that are required to determine if the dice are rolling "true". Of
course you have to be able to do statistics in your head, no computers
allowed. The casinos routinely do the same thing and pulls dice
with significant statistical abnormalities if they are losing money.
Of course they get to use computers.
Craps is a nice way of testing a random number generator.
In this case a physical one.
Jim Beck
Work out side bets with the players that are more favorable to you than
the odds at the tables.
Everett M. Greene
> "kiki" <luna...@yahoo.com> wrote
> > By doing math to help win I will get arrested?
>
> It is illegal to use any mechanical, electric, or calculating device to
> assist you. Even if you do it all in your head, it is illegal to count
> cards.
How is anyone going to prove what you're doing in your head?
> Nice business, that casino business, eh?
For everyone but Donald Trump!
Richard Henry
"Everett M. Greene" <moj...@mojaveg.iwvisp.com> wrote in message
news:20041227.7...@mojaveg.iwvisp.com...
> "Richard Henry" <rph...@home.com> writes:
> > "kiki" <luna...@yahoo.com> wrote
>
> > > By doing math to help win I will get arrested?
> >
> > It is illegal to use any mechanical, electric, or calculating device to
> > assist you. Even if you do it all in your head, it is illegal to count
> > cards.
>
> How is anyone going to prove what you're doing in your head?
If you change the amounts of your bets dramatically from time to time (for
example, from the table low limit to the table high limit), and are making
money, you will be asked to play somewhere else. If you come back to the
same casino later, you will be recognized and given a more severe warning.
Of course, you can just move over to the slots or craps or roulette tables,
and everyone will be smiling.
Mack
wrote:
>
>"Everett M. Greene" <moj...@mojaveg.iwvisp.com> wrote in message
>news:20041227.7...@mojaveg.iwvisp.com...
>> "Richard Henry" <rph...@home.com> writes:
>> > "kiki" <luna...@yahoo.com> wrote
>>
>> > > By doing math to help win I will get arrested?
>> >
>> > It is illegal to use any mechanical, electric, or calculating device to
>> > assist you. Even if you do it all in your head, it is illegal to count
>> > cards.
>>
>> How is anyone going to prove what you're doing in your head?
>
>If you change the amounts of your bets dramatically from time to time (for
>example, from the table low limit to the table high limit), and are making
>money, you will be asked to play somewhere else. If you come back to the
>same casino later, you will be recognized and given a more severe warning.
The more severe warning involves handcuffs. If you are asked to leave
and come back they call that trespassing.
>
>Of course, you can just move over to the slots or craps or roulette tables,
>and everyone will be smiling.
>
>
Leslie 'Mack' McBride
gow...@hotmail.com
would say math has made me a successful gambler. For an interesting
read about one of the first card-counters in Blackjack who went public
try _Beat the Dealer_ by Edward O. Thorp. It explains the system and
also tells stories of what the casinos did in response to Thorp's
winning large amounts.
Stephen J. Herschkorn
> "kiki" <luna...@yahoo.com> wrote in message
> news:cqo92s$eu$1...@news.Stanford.EDU...
> >
>
> >
> > By doing math to help win I will get arrested?
>
> It is illegal to use any mechanical, electric, or calculating device
to
> assist you. Even if you do it all in your head, it is illegal to
count
> cards.
False. The illegality of card-counting is disinformation spread by the
casinos. They have every right to not allow you to play, however, and
they will usually share information with other casinos.