OT: Hurricanes
Belba Grubb
models (which can and often do not verify, especially in the long
term), to be a rather dramatic week, with the possibility (at least as
it appears now) of a major hurricane flirting with the East Coast.
That would be Earl, not the current Category 4 Danielle, although both
cyclones will threaten Bermuda, which no matter what happens looks to
be on the brink of a very stormy week. Right now it looks, that if
that does happen (and not all models, as of last night when I checked
last, were predicting it), Earl will recurve in time to avoid any
landfall, but much excitement as well as water movement might well be
generated.
It's also going to be very interesting as there is a third player
possible in this game, the weather system just off the coast of
African is currently Invest 97L. It may be sitting on the other side
of a high pressure ridge (and just east of Bermuda) as either a not
very intense tropical cyclone of some sort (Fiona) or a strong area of
low pressure system -- just strong enough to affect the passage of
major hurricane Earl, on the other side of that ridge. The disparity
of intensity in the two, as well as the distance between them, is
great enough to prevent a "dance" interaction, but if the tracks
verify, it should be interesting.
Barb
--------
"Shut the door. Not that it lets in the cold but that it lets out the
cozyness"
- Mark Twain's Notebook
Belba Grubb
(Fiona) as much, perhaps because it will be under high wind shear from
Earl's "exhaust system" as well as travelling over water that has been
cooled by the passage of the two major hurricanes ahead of it. I
think this is why Earl's path in these runs appears to be further out
away from the coast--it can dominate that high pressure ridge better
and shoulder more of it aside, thus staying a bit further out to
sea.
That's it for now, and also the possibility that Earl might brush the
Norther Lesser Antilles if it jogs a bit southward before turning
generally northward. Worth keeping an eye on as the holiday
approaches next weekend. It's very unclear (and perhaps not just to
this layman) what Earl's going to do once it gets up around the
Bermudan latitudes, at least from these runs.
Surf's up, no matter what. Right now, it's coming in from Danielle,
and Earl will make an even bigger difference:
http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/atlausnewww3.html
Other links, if anyone is interested:
Models: ECMWF tropical loop and others (see links at upper left,
particularly the GFS):
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ECMWFTROPATL_12z/ecmwfloop.html
Bermuda Weather Service Web site (they're under a tropical storm watch
due to Danielle's large wind field - it won't come too close to the
island; Earl may be much more a threat):
http://www.weather.bm/
NOAA's Atlantic and Caribbean tropical satellite page:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html
CIMSS Satellite Blog:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/
Microwave Imagery main page (experimental - read the disclaimer, but
worth sharing because it shows these wonderful things as the living,
breathing systems they actually are):
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/marti/
Wunderground Tropical Page (one-stop lookup page for updates on all
TCs world-wide, but with ads):
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/
Also...I probably shouldn't ask but still must: where's Weatherlawyer
these days?
Barb
------------
"Unknowingly, we plow the dust of stars, blown about us by the wind,
and drink the universe in a glass of rain."
-- Ihab Hassan
Belba Grubb II
that steered Danielle. As Earl approaches the Lesser Antilles on
Sunday, a weakness in the ridge left behind by the passage of Danielle
will allow Earl the opportunity to move more to the west-northwest,
likely bringing the core of the storm just to the northeast of the
northernmost Lesser Antilles Islands Sunday night and Monday morning.
However, it is possible that Earl could move directly over some of
these northernmost islands. NHC is giving Saint Maarten in the
northern Lesser Antilles a 57% chance of receiving tropical storm
force winds from Earl, and an 18% chance of getting hurricane force
winds. Heavy rain squalls and tropical storm force winds should begin
affecting the islands Saint Maarten, Barbuda, and Antigua late Sunday
night. The odds of Earl bringing tropical storm force winds to Puerto
Rico are lower--25%, according to NHC.
"Once Earl passes the Lesser Antilles, steering currents favor a
northwesterly course towards North Carolina. History suggests that a
storm in Earl's current location has a 30% chance of making landfall
on the U.S. East Coast. Earl's chances of making a U.S. landfall are
probably more like 20%, due to the steering influence of a strong
trough of low pressure predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next
Friday. This trough, if it develops as predicted by the long-range
GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models, should be strong enough to recurve Earl
out to sea late in the week, with the storm missing landfall. However,
six-day forecasts can be off considerably on the timing and intensity
of such features, and it is quite possible that the trough could be
delayed or weaker than expected, resulting in Earl's landfall along
the U.S. East Coast Thursday or Friday. The most likely landfall
locations would be North Carolina on Thursday, or Massachusetts on
Friday. The GFS model predicts that Earl will come close enough to
North Carolina on Thursday to bring the storm's outer rain bands over
the Cape Hatteras region. The other models put Earl farther offshore,
and it is possible that Earl could pass close enough to Bermuda to
bring tropical storm force winds to that island. It is possible that
if 97L develops into Hurricane Fiona and moves quickly across the
Atlantic, as predicted by the GFS model, the two storms could interact
and rotate counterclockwise around a common center. Predicting these
sorts of interactions is difficult, and the long-term track forecast
for Earl has higher than usual uncertainty because of the possibility
of a storm-storm interaction with Fiona."
-- Jeff Masters, at Wunderground, August 28th blog post at
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1590
This morning's models did seem to like 97L/(Fiona) more, although on a
very different track and a higher intensity than they developed the
system a few days ago. There may even be a Fujiwara effect (the
rotation around a common center he mentions above:
http://weather.about.com/od/hurricaneformation/a/Fujiwhara.htm , also
www.youtube.com/watch?v=HgwA6NkA90w ). Hope it happens, and happens
far out to sea and with Bermuda nowhere near the barycenter!
The interested laypeople at http://www.stormcarib.com posited that the
70-degree longitude mark is important: if Earl passes it before
turning northward, not only will the northern islands get some rough
weather but also there most likely will landfall on CONUS, plus the
Bahamas (currently, they are just to the west outside the NHC's 5-day
probability cone). NHC currently posits the turn occurring somewhere
between 60W and 65W.
In other words, this one will be close, if the forecast tracks holds.
Barb
------------
"A youth who had begun to read geometry with Euclid, when he had
learnt the first proposition, inquired, 'What do I get by learning
these things?' So Euclid called a slave and said 'Give him threepence,
since he must make a gain out of what he learns.'"
-- Stobaeus, /Extracts/
"[Thomas Hobbes] was 40 years old before he looked on geometry; which
happened accidentally. Being in a gentleman's library, Euclid's
Elements lay open, and 'twas the 47 El. libri I' [Pythagoras's
Theorem]. He read the proposition . 'By God', sayd he, 'this is
impossible.' So he reads the demonstration of it, which referred him
back to such a proposition; which proposition he read. That referred
him back to another, which he also read. Et sic deinceps, that at last
he was demonstratively convinced of that trueth. This made him in love
with geometry."
-- John Aubrey, quoted in O L Dick, /Brief Lives/
Both quotations found at http://www-history.mcs.st-and.ac.uk/~john/geometry/Lectures/Q1.html
Belba Grubb
has been removed as a factor. This loop shows what happens when you
take away some wind shear from an intensifying tropical cyclone that
has everything else going for it: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html
Beautiful! And terrible, too. (Not unlike watching an active volcano
in that, very limited respect.) Anyway, it will only be good for a
few more hours as an example of that, but throughout the rest of
Earl's cycle, they will keep the floater satellite on it, so it's
still worth sharing.
Barb
----------
“One ship drives east and another drives west
With the selfsame winds that flow.
'Tis the set of sails and not the gales
Which tells us the way to go.”
-- Ella Wheeler Wilcox
Belba Grubb
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HgwA6NkA90w
Barb
Belba Grubb
MVO is almost tranquil: http://preview.tinyurl.com/SHVolcanoWebCam
Earl began its turn before 65W; however, its bearing has been 285 for
almost a day, so the recurve isn't happening quickly.
From the Anguilla correspondent to StormCarib.com this morning:
"10:40 AM – Monday
"The wind is pretty much out of the southwest now, and Earl has found
some “new life”! Winds are as strong as they have been – in fact, a
little stronger. Since the salt pond is not supposed to have breakers
in it, I assume the sea has broken through to the salt pond between
Cap Juluca and Altemar. Battery pack keeps beeping, so assume it
won’t last lng. Still moderate rain, but no downpours. Lots of
broken limbs, no trees down I cab see, Ooops – the rain just started
in sheets – coming through all the cracks on the south side. Towel
time! Later! - Steve
"9:40 AM - Monday
"Just walked out on front (east) deck, stuck my head around corner and
was literally blown over. Saw my kyack flying across the yard. No
poles down, lots of cable tv wires. Caught a quick glimpse of the sea
between Cap Juluca/Altamer – roughest I’ve seen. Probably get worse
with south wind. Raining harder but now no rain gauge – except for
wind speed/rain, others work. Laptop battery dead, running modem/
laptop off battery pack – see how long it holds. – Stay safe - Steve
"9:00 AM Monday
"No power since 3:30, on laptop/battery/backup. Wind clocked around
from north to west and is now starting to SW. Windmeter broke at 88
mph. Very little rain, lots of wind – I’m sure around 100. Lots of
smll tress down, wires all over road. Goy a call from Barbados early
am, are supposed to send chopper as soon as wind dies. Hot inside,
feels like tomb, DAMN noisy! Less that 0.3 in rain. More later."
-- http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/anguilla.shtml
If you've been somewhere like New Mexico, you know how the spring wind
can blow sand through the cracks and keyholes of your front door, if
it's aligned right. Hurricanes do that with rain, too...in addition
to the surge and/or flooding from heavy rain. The wind also makes
your windows hum and vibrate at a high frequency (personal experience,
Tropical Storm Katrina, 150 miles inland in 2005).
Earl had only just barely turned into Category 3 at that point and
Anguilla was taking a pretty direct hit. It's currently expected to
turn into a 4 soon, and Jeff Masters doesn't rule a Category 5 out of
the question. NHC thinks it will be a 3 by the time it reaches
latitudes where it can impact the East Coast near Hatteras (expected
now to be some time during Thursday night), be perhaps a 2 at the
latitude of Massachusetts, and a 1 when it either recurves or smashes
into Canada on Saturday. However, NHC does emphasize that its
forecast have an error of up to 200 miles at days 4 and 5 out, and
that's only about the distance they think Earl's center will be from
CONUS from about the Carolinas through. Right now, hurricane winds
extend 60 miles out from the center, tropical storm force winds up to
185 miles. We could be feeling those up here near Albany, NY, if the
current GFS run verifies.
Barb
---------
http://www.hidefromthewind.com/
Belba Grubb
Earl can weaken a bit and Fiona strengthen up.
More likely, Earl's shear will blow Fiona away and suck up all of that
cyclone's moisture. But you never know....
Barb
Peach
Thank you from a weather watcher here in NE Florida. I've read a ridge
is keeing Earl away, but was unaware of the above described effect on
Fiona.
Belba Grubb
> Thank you from a weather watcher here in NE Florida. I've read a ridge
> is keeing Earl away, but was unaware of the above described effect on
> Fiona.
You're welcome! :-)
Here is the Jacksonville, FL, tropical page from the National Weather
Service: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jax/?n=tropical if you're
interested. It has links to other parts of Florida, too. You
probably won't need it for Earl, and it's unlikely, if Fiona survives,
that it will come your way, but there's a third system forming out
near Africa (Invest 98L now, potentially Gaston) that will need to be
watched, as it looked quite perky today on the satellite.
It looks like Fiona is getting absorbed now, but it's not a neat,
clear process from the satellite imagery. The interesting part is
that there is a big chunk of dry air on Earl's southwest trying to get
into the core, which would weaken Earl; however, there's Fiona's
moisture streaming in from the southeast (and Fiona is maintaining
itself as a tropical storm so far). I'm only an interested layman,
but get the impression that this is one of those events where
everybody's learning, including the experts who have the unenviable
job of keep the whole East Coast from about the Carolinas northward
about what to expect and plan for up to and including Labor Day
Weekend.
The latest GFS and NOGAPS models (haven't checked the others as I was
late getting online tonight) bring Earl very close to shore all the
way up, but the NHC seems to be only very slowly moving its track
westward. That is just the track of the hurricane's center, of
course, and right now Earl's hurricane-force wind field has a radius
of up to 90 miles, and tropical storm-force winds, 200 miles. These
are the maximum radii, and they do vary quite a bit from quadrant to
quadrant, per the NHC. The point is, though, that the center doesn't
have to come ashore for there to be a lot of damage; however, the
eyewall winds are the strongest, so it would be nice if that stayed
out to sea as long as possible. However it turns out, the East Coast
is in for a heckuva ride.
They did post their interactive surge model for Earl today:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/psurgegraphics_at2.shtml?gm
The National Data Buoy Center Web site at http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/
has a "storm special" going on, at the top of the page, with the
latest readings from each storm. Right now, the highest wave height
measured is 28.5 feet, and the pressure there is almost 999 mb, wind
speed a little over 49 mph. Earl isn't too close to it yet: its
minimum pressure as recorded by the last Hurricane Hunter flight and
posted at the NHC page is 940 mb, maximum wind speed (estimated) 135
mph, and nobody can directly measure the wave heights yet, though this
buoy system will allow them to pretty soon.
With all this technology, the Hurricane Hunters still use what is
basically eyeball measurement to estimate wave height, based on the
chop that they see below them as they are flying in the hurricane. It
has proven to be pretty accurate, actually, when a cyclone got in
close enough for direct readings. If anyone is interested in a
cyberflight: http://www.hurricanehunters.com/cyberflight.htm .
Oh, I'm blabbing on - sorry!
Barb
----------
“Enthusiasm is contagious. Be a carrier.”
- Susan Rabin
Belba Grubb
"there are some small
difference in the model guidance that could have large implications
in terms of impacts. The GFDN...NOGAPS...and UKMET forecast the
center to pass near or over the North Carolina coast and New
England. The other models are farther to the east...keeping the
center offshore. Through 48 hr...the new forecast track is similar
to the previous track...keeps the center off the North Carolina
coast...and lies just west of the center of the guidance envelope.
After 48 hr...the guidance envelope has shifted a little to the
west...and the new forecast track does likewise to be in the center
of the envelope. This part of the track is closer to the New
England states than the previous forecast.
"The intensity forecast is a conundrum..."
-- From Forecast Discussion #28 at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/010903.shtml
Yeah, it sure is a conundrum. Little Tropical Storm Fiona has somehow
managed to work with Earl to build a ridge in between the two, behind
which Fiona is reorganizing. Fiona well become a hurricane, and
perhaps even a stationary one (fortunately not on top of or adjacent
to any land masses). As the NHC puts it in their current Fiona
discussion, "...a 96-hour position has been added and dissipation has
been delayed until 120 hours."
Wow!
Barb
------------
"Never make a calculation until you know the answer: make an estimate
before every calculation, try a simple physical argument (symmetry!
invariance! conservation!) before every derivation, guess the answer
to every puzzle. Courage: no one else needs to know what the guess is.
Therefore make it quickly, by instinct. A right guess reinforces this
instinct. A wrong guess brings the refreshment of surprise. In either
case life as a[n]...expert, however long, is more fun!"
Wheeler, John A. and Edwin F. Taylor, /Spacetime Physics/ quoted
at http://www.lhup.edu/~dsimanek/sciquote.htm
Belba Grubb
I'm no expert, and the NHC update isn't out yet, but it looks like
Earl's "exhaust" blew the upper portions right off of Fiona. The top
half is sitting to the west of the Antilles, the rest to the east, and
F's moisture is now streaming into Earl's core, making the hurricane
look very healthy. It has a big eye, and maybe that extra moisture
will help it fend off the dry air that is also wrapping in now.
Things happen very fast sometimes.
One more link and that should be it for this, as it's about at the
point where it's just going to play out now, with Fiona gone:
http://www.ec.gc.ca/ouragans-hurricanes/default.asp?lang=En&n=DA74FE64-1
Lots of people don't know Canada has a hurricane center. They need
it. Anyway, whatever its track along the US East Coast, Earl
definitely is going into Canada, though the intensity and timing are
still questionable.
Barb
----------
"The wheel of change moves on, and those who were down go up and those
who were up go down."
-- Jawaharlal Nehru
Belba Grubb
me, but the NHC sees it differently, and they are the experts (also,
they have planes):
000
WTNT43 KNHC 011441
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM FIONA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082010
1100 AM AST WED SEP 01 2010
EARLIER THIS MORNING...THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
MEASURED A PEAK 850 MB WIND OF 58 KT...BELIEVABLE SFMR VALUES OF
45-50 KT...AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 998 MB. THIS WAS THE BASIS FOR
THE 8 AM INTENSITY OF 50 KT. SINCE THAT TIME... THE SYSTEM HAS
BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED WITH THE CENTER ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF
WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION. ANOTHER AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE SYSTEM
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE MODERATE SHEAR...ALL OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOW FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND MOST ACTUALLY MAKE FIONA
A HURRICANE. BY LATE TOMORROW...THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE AS THE
MAJORITY OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE FAIRLY STRONG NORTHEASTERLY
SHEAR IN A FEW DAYS DUE PRIMARILY TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS FROM
EARL. THIS PATTERN CAUSES FIONA TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN IN 3 OR 4
DAYS...AND THE NHC FORECAST WILL STAY ON THE LOWER END OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL.
AIRCRAFT FIXES SHOW A MOTION OF ABOUT 305/15 DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEEMENT ON A NORTHWEST TO
NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION FOR A DAY OR TWO DUE TO FIONA MOVING AROUND
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. HOWEVER...THE
GUIDANCE STARTS TO BECOME RATHER DIVERGENT AFTER THAT TIME...WHICH
APPEARS TO BE RELATED TO THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF FIONA. IF THE
STORM WEAKENS QUICKLY...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY GET
CAUGHT UP IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF EARL. HOWEVER...IF FIONA
STAYS A MORE COHERENT VORTEX...THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR IT
TO GET TRAPPED BY A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. GIVEN THE STRONG
SHEAR FORECAST AT THE END...THE NHC FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE
FASTER TRACK SCENARIO AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND
IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER...I DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE IN THE LONG-TERM TRACK OR INTENSITY FORECASTS...AS THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN STURGGLING WITH CONSISTENCY WITH THIS STORM.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/1500Z 18.8N 61.7W 50 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 20.3N 63.3W 55 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 22.6N 65.3W 55 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 24.9N 66.6W 55 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 26.9N 67.1W 45 KT
72HR VT 04/1200Z 29.0N 67.0W 40 KT
96HR VT 05/1200Z 31.0N 67.0W 30 KT
120HR VT 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
As for Earl, the first factor in its future is already occurring, per
the 11 a.m. update, which is a shift of the subtropical ridge to the
right; the second factor, formation of a trough over the northeast
that will keep Earl to the east and recurve it, isn't expected until
Friday. It's likely to be a close call, and that is the core of a
Category 3 hurricane they're talking about here:
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN STEERING EARL TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS ALREADY SHIFTING EASTWARD...AND LATER TODAY...EARL
SHOULD BE ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE TURNING GRADUALLY
NORTHWARD. IN 36 HOURS OR SO...THE HURRICANE WILL ENCOUNTER THE
BASE OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND SHOULD BEGIN TO RECURVE OR
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS THE
SOLUTION UNANIMOUSLY PROVIDED BY TRACK MODELS...WHICH HAVE EARL
PASSING TO THE EAST BUT NOT FAR FROM THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH
CAROLINA BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS. ONLY A SMALL WESTWARD DEVIATION
TO THE TRACK TO THE WEST WOULD BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE
TO THE COAST.
Again, the main NHC page is at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Barb
-----------------
"The greatest obstacle to discovering the shape of the earth, the
continents and the ocean was not ignorance but the illusion of
knowledge."
-- Daniel J. Boorstin, /The Discoverers/, quoted at
http://www.quotegarden.com/knowledge.html
Peach
links. I live about 45 miles inland, used to live 60 miles from shore,
but am close to the St. Mary's river. I've loved weather since I was a
kid, but became an attorney. Thanks again for the info.
**************************************************************************************************
On Aug 31, 11:03 pm, Belba Grubb <trungsister...@yahoo.com> wrote:
> On Aug 31, 2:19 pm, Peach <djchris...@nefcom.net> wrote:
>
> > Thank you from a weather watcher here in NE Florida. I've read a ridge
> > is keeing Earl away, but was unaware of the above described effect on
> > Fiona.
>
> You're welcome! :-)
>
> Here is the Jacksonville, FL, tropical page from the National Weather
> Service: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/jax/?n=tropicalif you're
> The National Data Buoy Center Web site athttp://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/
Belba Grubb
> As for Earl, the first factor in its future is already occurring, per
> the 11 a.m. update, which is a shift of the subtropical ridge to the
> right; the second factor, formation of a trough over the northeast
> that will keep Earl to the east and recurve it, isn't expected until
> Friday.
The latest runs of the GFS, ECMWF, and NOGAPS models, to this
untutored eye among those of other laymen, are showing the trough
coming in later, some time Saturday. Earl is expected to pass the
Carolinas roughly around 2 a.m. Friday, though, and right now it's
traveling at 18 mph, with not much expected to slow it down, AFAIK.
It will be very important, if and what the NHC says about all this.
Next regularly scheduled advisory is due out at 11 p.m. Eastern.
Tonight might be Earl's peak strength, and it is beautiful on the
satellite views:
Still (rainbow view): http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/rb-l.jpg
Loop "" (requires Flash): http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html
It's showing some annular characteristics (the meaning of the term
will be obvious from the views), though it's not truly axisymmetric
and the NHC is still forecasting fluctuations in strength in the next
24-48 hours before it starts dropping down to a 3 before it reaches
the Carolinas and then a 2 by the time it reaches New England.
(Just in passing, Gaston might possibly be a Caribbean and perhaps a
Gulf threat down the road a ways -- way too early to tell, though.)
Barb
-----------
"It's either the wind of the end of the world!"
-- Thomas Mitchell as Dr. Kersaint in "The Hurricane" (1937).
Trailer at http://www.imdb.com/video/screenplay/vi2425225497/ (sorry
about the ads). Extremely hard to find on DVD but possibly John
Ford's best picture, and it doesn't even have John Wayne in it!.
Accurate, too, except that Ford couldn't film his actors in canoes in
50-foot seas, so the scenes on the water are heavy on the wind but
filmed with a fairly flat sea level; the only other goof I could see
was that he shows the big waves coming after the surge...actually they
all come in together. But Ford does give you a wind speed reading as
the cyclone nears the island; nice touch, like the pH reading in /
Dante's Peak/.
Belba Grubb
> I go to NOAA but have not been to the sites within to which you posted
> links. I live about 45 miles inland, used to live 60 miles from shore,
> but am close to the St. Mary's river. I've loved weather since I was a
> kid, but became an attorney. Thanks again for the info.
You're very welcome!
Barb
Belba Grubb
yay! Earl interacts with the trough later over the weekend as the
cyclone is making its transition to extratropical (not running off
heat any more), up in Canada. The most recent models are reflecting
this. NHC explains:
000
WTNT42 KNHC 020907
TCDAT2
HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
500 AM EDT THU SEP 02 2010
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED 140 KT WINDS
AT 700 MB IN THE NORTHEASTERN EYEWALL. AN EYE DROPSONDE REPORTED A
SURFACE PRESSURE OF 929 MB WITH A WIND OF 25 KT...SUGGESTING A
CENTRAL PRESSURE NEAR 928 MB. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 125 KT. EARL IS LIKELY NEAR PEAK
INTENSITY AT THIS TIME...AS THE EYEWALL CONVECTION IS BECOMING A
LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/16. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO EITHER THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OF THE TRACK FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 48 HR.
EARL SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AS IT ROUNDS THE
END OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND ENTERS THE WESTERLIES. THE TRACK
MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND THIS SOLUTION...AND THE
NEW TRACK IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE CLUSTER. AFTER 48 HR...THE
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE LEFT DUE TO CHANGES IN THE INTERACTION
OF EARL WITH A STRONG WESTERLY TROUGH DURING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE 48-72 HR TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE LEFT...BUT
STILL LIES ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
-- From NHC Earl Forecast Discussion #32 at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/020907.shtml
000
WTNT32 KNHC 021139
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
800 AM EDT THU SEP 02 2010
...INTENSE HURRICANE EARL CONTINUES ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE OUTER BANKS TONIGHT...
SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 74.8W
ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 820 MI...1315 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...932 MB...27.52 INCHES
...
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR BUT A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH IS EXPECTED SOON. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR THE NORTH
CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TONIGHT...AND BE VERY NEAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO START LATER TODAY...BUT EARL IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR
HURRICANE WHEN IT PASSES NEAR THE OUTER BANKS.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER
DATA IS 932 MB...27.52 INCHES.
-- From NHC Earl Public Advisory #32A at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/021139.shtml
So much damage is still going to come out of this that it's not
impossible that the name of Earl will be retired from the archive, but
still: the highest winds in the eyewall and that dangerous northeast
quadrant (area that would be northeast if the forward motion was due
north, site of highest winds, highest surge, most vorticity for
secondary tornadoes) should stay out to sea, sparing the US coastal
area the worst.
Canada is still going to get it, though. The Canadian Hurricane
Centre is an excellent source of information here, and their current
information bulletin is at http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/hurricane/statements_e.html
If Earl does end up at the Bay of Fundy, high tides at Grand Manan
Channel there on Saturday are at 5:22 a.m. and 5:52 a.m. Atlantic time
per
http://www.mobilegeographics.com:81/calendar/year/2239.html
So...would you rather forecast earthquakes or hurricanes in a heavily
populated zones? Me, I'm kind of glad I'm in medical
transcription. :-) Three and more cheers for all scientists who do
this extremely high-pressure work and help protect us all!
Barb
Peach
site that leads me there?
*********************************************************************************************************
> -- From NHC Earl Forecast Discussion #32 athttp://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/020907.shtml
> -- From NHC Earl Public Advisory #32A athttp://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/021139.shtml
>
> So much damage is still going to come out of this that it's not
> impossible that the name of Earl will be retired from the archive, but
> still: the highest winds in the eyewall and that dangerous northeast
> quadrant (area that would be northeast if the forward motion was due
> north, site of highest winds, highest surge, most vorticity for
> secondary tornadoes) should stay out to sea, sparing the US coastal
> area the worst.
>
> Canada is still going to get it, though. The Canadian Hurricane
> Centre is an excellent source of information here, and their current
> information bulletin is athttp://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/hurricane/statements_e.html
>
> If Earl does end up at the Bay of Fundy, high tides at Grand Manan
> Channel there on Saturday are at 5:22 a.m. and 5:52 a.m. Atlantic time
> perhttp://www.mobilegeographics.com:81/calendar/year/2239.html
Belba Grubb
Was reading a headline that says that "Earl may not even be a
hurricane" by the time it reaches Massachusetts. Well, Katrina wasn't
even a hurricane by the time it reached us in West Central Alabama
back in 2005; it was a tropical storm, having just dropped down from
hurricane strength as Earl is forecast to do at some point in the
general latitude of Massachusetts or northward. We were still out of
power for 3 days and there was much damage.
The TS/hurricane mark is an arbitrary one, based on numbers that
people assign to what they estimate to be a cyclone's wind speed. The
cyclone doesn't know or care what names people call it; it just does
its thing until somebody turns off its power source.
And perhaps it should be mentioned that waves from recent Hurricane
Danielle killed 3 people along the Eastern coast, and that storm
didn't get nearly as close to us as Earl has. Care is needed, always,
during hurricane season.
[/ibkrm]
It's so wonderful to see something in person that you've been watching
on the imagery (unless it *is* Katrina and coming at you for a direct
hit). Cirrus clouds from Earl's outflow started coming in here over
the Albany (NY) area around 4 a.m., NWS says, and it's thickening now,
blocking the sun. It's all of Earl we'll get, most likely, but
fascinating nonetheless.
Barb
----------
http://icanhascheezburger.files.wordpress.com/2010/07/funny-pictures-kittens-watch-clouds.jpg
Peach
beyond that. Max loss of electricity: 38 hours. Closed roads, limbs
blocking vehicles, and the always persistent wind..........
*********************************************************************************************************
> ----------http://icanhascheezburger.files.wordpress.com/2010/07/funny-pictures-...
Belba Grubb II
> I've been through at least 6 tropical storms & two Cat. 1's. Never
> beyond that. Max loss of electricity: 38 hours. Closed roads, limbs
> blocking vehicles, and the always persistent wind..........
They're loud, aren't they, like gales in the winter and then some.
And it goes on and on and on, for days, if the storm is large enough.
Earl is such a pretty thing, still: http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4094/4957008304_750f770054_b.jpg
It did apparently strengthen in the warm waters south of the Canadian
shores, too: CMC declared it a Category 1 when it made landfall in
Nova Scotia.
The /Boston Globe/ reports on the aftermath in Massachusetts:
http://www.boston.com/news/local/breaking_news/2010/09/no_major_damage.html
It's interesting to compare the reactions:
Newbie: "I wanted to experience 100-mile-an-hour winds."
Been-there-done-that (most of the local people interviewed): "But as
it all came out, we were very lucky."
This is an illustration, that in this very limited sense only, it's
too bad powerful earthquakes don't happen more frequently: it would be
a lot easier to get people to seriously heed the warnings; they would
also be more relieved than angry when a quake didn't happen after a
warning.
Whew.
Barb
----------
“The trouble with most folks isn’t so much their ignorance, as knowing
so many things that ain’t so.”
-- Josh Billings [Henry Wheeler Shaw] quoted at
http://www.tentmaker.org/Quotes/wisdom_quotes.html
Belba Grubb
of this sort of stuff:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AZybFl_pfMk
There - got it out of my system (BG). Anyway, Earl was something
special, but there's no point in tracking every single hurricane from
here on in, unless something extreme or unusual happens (Category 3-5
at landfall on a heavily populated area, say, or truly annular
formation, Fujiwara effect [still quite possible in this anticipated
busy season] or some such thing). Just wanted to share what Jeff
Masters said in his blog today, even though Hermine showed that the
Atlantic isn't the only active breeding ground for tropical cyclones
right now (hope nobody here experienced the terrible flooding from
that storm):
"History shows that about 20% of all tropical cyclones that have
existed at [Igor]'s current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East
Coast; these odds are 10% for the U.S. Gulf Coast, 5% for Puerto Rico,
and 10% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the coming two
weeks from the GFS model shows a continuation of the pattern we've
seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure
moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors a continuation of
the sort of tracks we saw for Danielle, Earl, and Fiona, with threats
to the northern Lesser Antilles, Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast, and
Canada."
-- http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1612
It will be interesting to see if Bermuda's "hurricane force field"
continues to hold.
Barb
----------
"It wasn't a dark and stormy night. It should have been, but there's
the weather for you. For every mad scientist who's had a convenient
thunderstorm just on the night his Great Work is complete and lying on
the slab, there have been dozens who've sat around aimlessly under the
peaceful stars while Igor clocks up the overtime."
-- From "Good Omens," Terry Pratchett and Neil Gaiman
Next one up? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HKkVhlcw77g
Belba Grubb
that might be interest some here:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ssurge/index.shtml
Lots of information about the program, the SLOSH model (yes) itself,
and links to the detailed information pages. During Earl, I was
looking for some of this information and couldn't find it in a hurry,
so this is very nice.
Not that this information is currently necessary. Igor is likely to
turn into a major hurricane several days now, but it may follow a path
similar to Danielle's. The area to watch is the southeastern
Caribbean. Because of the nearby land configurations (disrupts the
formation process in multiple ways) and the proximity to the equator
(hard to get spin going), this is one of the most challenging regions
for a tropical cyclone to form in; however, knowledgeable people are
watching it closely now because the heat potential in the water is
very high and it goes very deep. A cyclone that manages to form there
(and one is trying to now, Invest 92L, although the models currently
don't develop it) will undergo rapid intensification ("bomb"). Igor
will most likely be the big show over the next two weeks, and perhaps
Julia behind it (both temporally and spatially, but much less intense,
so no Fujiwara....).
Sorry to be so focused on the Atlantic basin - that's the one that
affects me. The Pacific is certainly active now, too, as is the
northern Indian Ocean, and the Southern Hemisphere season will get
going in a couple of months. As mentioned, http://www.wunderground.com/tropical
is a useful portal and overview site. For specific basins and centers
that cover them, this may help as a start:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regional_Specialized_Meteorological_Centre
. Some, like the Indian and Japanese centers, also have seismographic
information online. The only one I'm a bit familiar with is
Australia's BoM tropical cyclone page at http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/
: lots of good general information as well as specific information
once their season starts.
Barb
---------
"We usually fly the odd year winter storm deployment from Elmendorf
AFB, AK but the threat of Mt. Redoubt erupting near Ancherage forced
us to fly out of McChord AFB in Tacoma, WA. And a trip to the Tacoma
area would not be complete without seeing Mt. Rainier."
-- blurb from image 1 in Hurricane Hunter deployment image gallery
at http://www.hurricanehunters.com/gallery_deploy.htm
Belba Grubb II
seems the most likely candidate to reach that status. The NHC
currently has it forecast as a Category 4 starting some time tomorrow
and then for the remainder of the current five-day period (through 8
a.m.), which seems a little unusual. Hurricanes at that intensity
usually weaken and intensify with eyewall replacement cycles. This
amateur did notice that Igor formed an eye visible on satellite
imagery fairly early, and that eye has continued, and Igor has a few
annular characteristics already. Maybe the cyclone will go formally
annular (in the NHC's view), maybe it will go into the more usual
cycle, but it seems worth giving a heads-up as cyclones can change
very quickly and I'm very busy and won't be able to watch this as
closely as I did Earl (unless it threatens the East Coast, which at
this moment doesn't seem too likely; Bermuda, though, will have to
watch this only closely). Here are the best viewing and information
links 24/7:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html
Of note, Hurricane Fabian, which in 2003 hit Bermuda directly with a
roughly 3-hour passage of the eyewall directly over the island, was a
mid-range Category 3 at that time (max winds 120 mph). Bermuda gets
many gales and have strict building codes, and while there were
casualties and lots of damage, there wasn't the devastation that might
have happened in a less prepared landfall area (Katrina in 2005 was
also a Category 3). A stronger storm with the same path would cause
more problems, but it's way too early to tell for sure whether such a
direct hit will happen.
Hopefully, Igor will present us with another spectacular show and very
little to no human suffering. (Earl, by the way, did cause someone's
death up in Nova Scotia.)
Barb
-------------
"Florida folks, land of perpetual sunshine. Let's get the auction
started before we have a tornado."
-- Groucho Marx, /The Cocoanuts/ (1929)
Belba Grubb
credible run up to Category 5, and for comparison similar IR imagery
of 6 annular hurricanes, which is Figure 1 in /Annular Hurricanes/
(2002) by Knaff, Kossin, and DeMaria:
Igor: http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4146/4984052283_b65cc8b6b0_z.jpg
Figure 1: http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4105/4984027485_d0d38594a9_b.jpg
The whole paper: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/resources/docs/annular_Knaff.pdf
(PDF file!)
This layman thinks Igor's close to annular but not quite there yet --
still has a fair amount of convection in the SSE region, and the eye
is rather small, though much larger than, say, Wilma's pin-point eye
when it was a Category 5 back in 2005. Will see what NHC says at 11
p.m. Eastern tonight. Gosh!
If it is annular, I don't enough to say for sure if that is strictly
of academic interest or also important in forecasting its intensity
and track. Annular hurricanes do weaken more slowly than "regular"
hurricanes, and I have heard but can't document just now that annular
hurricanes tend to be less susceptible to steering factors (probably
for a similar reason to the one that makes, say, a Chevy van crossing
a bridge more susceptible to crosswinds than a fully loaded 18-
wheeler).
I'd love to be a fly on the wall at the National Hurricane Center
tonight! :-)
Barb
Belba Grubb
this morning but last night mostly apparent in microwave imagery), and
also its eye is small, more like "typical" intense hurricanes, rather
than the larger-than-normal eye in annulars (per the 2002 Knaff
paper). Watch how the eye shrank yesterday (compare with the knots
reading upper left):
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/marti/2010_11L/webManager/displayGifsBy12hr_05.html
Igor's main microwave page is:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/marti/2010_11L/webManager/mainpage.html
In their discussions, the NHC is mentioning some concern about the
model evolution of the guiding ridge with Igor but they haven't
changed the forecast track yet. Something to keep an eye on, but
right now it looks like Bermuda and possibly Nova Scotia are most
likely to be threatened by this storm.
Barb
--------
"Nothing happens until something moves."
-- Albert Einstein
Belba Grubb
IGOR IS EXPECTED TO BE A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO BERMUDA TO BRING ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO THAT
ISLAND.
-- NHC forecast discussion #27, 5 p.m. AST September 14, 2010 at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/142059.shtml
It may be down to "only" a Category 3 then, per the current forecast
track, and the eyewall may pass a wee bit to the west and not directly
over the island. It will be close, though, and the cyclone is moving
slowly, about 8 mph just now. Because of Igor's large size, its
higher-velocity winds will start affecting Bermuda some time Friday
afternoon or evening, per the current forecast track, with the closest
approach to the island on Sunday in the late morning/middle of the
day. See the NHC wind probabilities chart, too:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT1+shtml/142059.shtml?
Igor's eye widened visibly today and it strengthened again; it was
very close to Category 5 as of the 5 p.m. NHC discussion, after
weakening slightly since yesterday. It didn't really go through an
eyewall replacement cycle, AFAIK, so that's very interesting.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_3kStyFKlTs (Note: the angle is a
little misleading here as is the increase in shadowing, but this video
shows the mesovortices in the eye very nicely; 2003's Hurricane
Isabel, a recognized annular hurricane, had such vortices, too; in
fact they formed a geometric pattern. Igor did trigger the Annular
Hurricane Index feature of the SHIPS model the other day, but AFAIK it
is not considered an annular hurricane so far. Just found an updated
paper on those: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2007WAF2007031.1?journalCode=wefo
)
The 5 p.m. discussion linked above gives details on the reasoning
behind Igor's expected drop in strength by the time it reaches the
latitude of Bermuda.
I couldn't find any mention at the /Telegraph/ of a threat to Bermuda
yet, any more than I could find news of flooding in Haiti on a Google
News search (see rant below), but there was this:
http://bernews.com/2010/09/harder-to-ignore-potential-fabian-type-impacts/
The Bermudans are at least getting a heads-up from somewhere, along
with the caveat that it's too early to tell. With the models tightly
clustered together now, I would put things a little more forcefully,
but I'm not a meteorologist. Stories like these may well increase in
number and degree of alarm until the weekend, when weather conditions
will have deteriorated enough to cancel flights off the island. Most
Bermudans will probably be prepared by then, though.
Regarding the Caribbean:
Last night the /Daily Telegraph/ in London said: "Haiti's Civil
Protection Agency declared an "orange alert," warning that several
regions could be flooded as a result of heavy rains expected as Igor
drew nearer. The Category Four hurricane is expected to hit Haiti
within the next 48 hours."
-- From "Haiti Braces Itself for Hurricane Igor" at http://bit.ly/cRl5CY
(or http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/centralamericaandthecaribbean/haiti/8000246/Haiti-braces-itself-for-Hurricane-Igor.html
)
Total bosh, as one look at the forecast track indicates.
However, the National Meteorological Service of Haiti did indeed issue
an orange alert for Igor: http://www.metropolehaiti.com/metropole/full_une_fr.php?id=18246
(French). This has given the story legs: for example,
http://www.stabroeknews.com/2010/news/world/09/14/bbc-caribbean-news-in-brief-161/
is one example. The /Telegraph/ article is still up, too, although
they did at least remove it from the front news page.
Again, a look at the NHC forecast tracks and current positions of both
Igor and Julia should immediately raise serious questions about such
reports. I'm afraid the Haitians have gone to a lot of trouble over
something that poses no risk at all. A Google News search just now
brought up no news of flooding whatsoever in Haiti; there has been no
mention of it in my 3-Haitian Twitter list, either, which includes
somebody who tweets photos of the street outside his window every time
it rains in PaP. Waves from Igor will soon start affecting some of
the Antilles and Puerto Rico, I believe (can't get into the NHC
document to check just now - computer problem), but Haiti will escape
any effects of Igor.
Setting PTSD aside as mere speculation, the confusion about Igor and
Haiti apparently came because rains from what has become Tropical
Storm Karl did meander around Hispaniola a few days ago before getting
down to business a bit further south over the sea. Again, it doesn't
appear to have caused any major flooding at all. Karl is the only
tropical cyclone anywhere near the Caribbean (in it, actually) and
it's nowhere near Haiti.
Jeff Masters notes that this cyclone may spin up a la Hermine once it
exits the Yucatan some time late Thursday night and gets into Campeche
Bay Right now it is forecast to make landfall in Mexico.
Barb
-----------
"9", which is relative to nothing in this post or to anything in the
group's topical interest, but is a very nice change of pace (and a
little scary for the sensitive):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5IQcMeNh7Hc (original movie, not
trailer for the Tim Burton et al. film derived from it)
Belba Grubb
"The Atlantic hurricane season of 2010 kicked into high gear this
morning, with the landfall of Tropical Storm Karl in Mexico, and the
simultaneous presence of two Category 4 hurricanes in the Atlantic,
Igor and Julia. Tropical Storm Karl's formation yesterday marked the
fifth earliest date that an eleventh named storm of the season has
formed. The only years more active this early in the season were 2005,
1995, 1936 and 1933. This morning's unexpected intensification of
Hurricane Julia into a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds has set a
new record--Julia is now the strongest hurricane on record so far
east. When one considers that earlier this year, Hurricane Earl became
the fourth strongest hurricane so far north, it appears that this
year's record SSTs have significantly expanded the area over which
major hurricanes can exist over the Atlantic. This morning is just the
second time in recorded history that two simultaneous Category 4 or
stronger storms have occurred in the Atlantic. The only other
occurrence was on 06 UTC September 16, 1926..."
-- Jeff Masters, Wunderground blog post, September 15, 2010 at
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1619
If the two hurricanes were close to each other right now, there most
likely would be a Fujiwara effect, as they are the same intensity; the
models do bring Julia in close to Igor in a few days, but in the
meantime Igor's shear plus somewhat cooler water are forecast to
severely weaken Julia, while Igor will have only dropped down to a 3
or maybe a strong 2; a dance is much more unlikely then.
Another one-stop model page: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ECMWFTROPATL_12z/ecmwfloop.html
It is set on the Euro (ECMWF) but GFS and NOGAPS are also available
at links in the upper left corner.
Gosh!
Barb
---------
"A single lifetime, even though entirely devoted to the sky, would not
be enough for the study of so vast a subject. A time will come when
our descendants will be amazed that we did not know things that are so
plain to them."
-- Seneca, Book 7, first century AD, quoted at http://www.skygod.com/quotes/quotes.html
"...INTERNAL DYNAMICS WILL LIKELY BE THE DOMINANT
FACTOR FOR THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF IGOR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THESE SMALL SCALE DYNAMICS...WHICH ARE NOT WELL
UNDERSTOOD...USUALLY CAUSE FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY...AND THAT IS
REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST."
-- From National Hurricane Center Forecast Discussion 29, Hurricane
Igor, September 15, 2010, at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/al11/al112010.discus.029.shtml?
Belba Grubb
evening urged the Island’s residents to begin hurricane preparations
by securing their properties and stocking up on hurricane supplies as
Hurricane Igor – a very big and intense storm – is expected to hit
Bermuda over the weekend.
"The Island can expect tropical storm force winds sometime around
midnight Saturday and even worse conditions late Sunday around
midnight when the current forecast is for a direct hit. Residents are
advised to take the warnings seriously as the Island has not
experienced such an intense storm since Hurricane Fabian hit Bermuda
in 2003.
"By 3p.m. on Sunday, 50 knot east to south east winds are expected and
winds will continue to increase and reach sustained hurricane force by
6 p.m. Sunday and continue through the night. If the island sustains a
direct hit as is the current forecast, it also means 90-knot sustained
winds with gusts above 115 knots (132mph); coastline areas can expect
storm surges of 5 – 7 feet above normal tide levels; seas inside the
reef are expected to rise 9 – 12 feet and outside the reef, there will
be waves of 20 – 30 feet. The hurricane is also expected to drop as
much as five inches of rain on the Island. "
"The EMO confirmed that Government Ministries, the Bermuda Regiment,
Bermuda Fire & Rescue Service and the Bermuda Police Service are
all...."
-- From Emergency Measures Organization Bermuda announcement,
September 15, 2010, at
http://www.emobermuda.com/Lists/Announcements/DispForm.aspx?ID=11&Source=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.emobermuda.com%2Fdefault.aspx
The good news: Igor may have dropped down to a Category 2 by then
(Fabian was a strong Category 3). The bad: If the current forecast
track verifies, Bermuda will get the northeast quadrant of the storm,
a hurricane's strongest in terms of winds, surge, and tornado
formation.
Bermuda Weather Service's tropicals page: http://www.weather.bm/tropical.asp
Barb
--------------
Tip: Not a household name, but it's the most intense tropical cyclone
ever recorded in modern times:
http://www.islandnet.com/~see/weather/almanac/arc2009/alm09oct.htm
Belba Grubb
terrific online resource at http://www.meted.ucar.edu; registration is
free; it covers many aspects of meteorology, and offerings range from
elementary school level to advanced. From their tropical meteorology,
Fujiwhara section (Chapter 10.6), "Binary interactions (large angular
rotation rates) occurred when the tropical cyclone centers were
separated by distances of less than 1300-1400 km, with this critical
separation distance depending on the sizes of the interacting
systems."
Based on the locations given in the 5 a.m. forecast discussions from
the NHC, Igor (Category 4 and intensifying) and Julia (Category 2 and
weakening quickly) are some 2141 km apart. The most likely effect
when they get close enough, given the disparity in intensity will be
for Igor to absorb Julia rather than cyclonic rotation, but Igor is
such a strong, "independent" hurricane, it's hard to say for sure what
is going to happen several days down the road. Yesterday, Igor
started an eyewall cycle, but unlike other hurricanes over recent
seasons, it did not weaken; in fact, convection increased a little.
Igor is teaching the meteorologists stuff.
Of note in the 5 a.m. Igor discussion from the NHC:
"A large-scale environment of light shear and warm water is favorable
for the maintenance of an extremely dangerous hurricane for the
next few days. The exact intensity of Igor will be primarily
dictated by eyewall cycles...which are well beyond our forecast
abilities. The majority of the model guidance indicates that slow
weakening is the most likely solution...and the NHC forecast reflect
this. However...it is more important to recognize that all of the
guidance...and the NHC forecast...keeps Igor as a large and
dangerous hurricane for the next several days."
Barb
Belba Grubb
out in the Bay of Campeche and here's the most recent statement on
that: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/161224.shtml
It's still a tropical storm but will soon become a Category 1
hurricane and NHC says warnings will likely be needed along portions
of mainland Mexico later today. Here is Mexico's met service page
(Spanish): http://smn.cna.gob.mx/
All this water sloshing around in the tropical Atlantic basin might be
useful on those fires on the West Coast, if we could somehow transport
it there!
Barb
PS: It looks to this layman like Igor has completely blown Julia
away (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/wv-l.jpg time
sensitive), but will see what NHC says later this morning.
Belba Grubb
recorded a minimum pressure of 940 mb (estimated pressure had been 934
mb), maximum surface wind found by flight was 110 mph, and the maximum
wind they encountered on the flight out, through the NE quadrant, was
almost 150 mph (130 knots). Meteorologists can derive much
information from all the readings they take, and I do not understand
how they do it, but NHC did upgrade the storm's 11 a.m. intensity from
115 to 120 knots, still a strong Category 4, and those winds in the NE
quadrant are approaching the 156 mph Category 5 range. NASA has been
running a variety of experimental missions into the storm, too; that
information doesn't get displayed publicly, AFAIK.
Julia's still alive and kicking, but drastically weakening. Karl, on
the other hand, may make up to Category 3 status by the time it makes
landfall.
Barb
Belba Grubb
Julia were 1906 km apart. Interestingly, on water vapor imagery, a
ridge between the two seems apparent now, similar to what was seen for
a while between another intense/very weak pair, Earl and Fiona:
http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4106/4996647488_4698f6d164_b.jpg
Fiona strengthened for a while behind its protective ridge; Julia is
in a different water environment, with cooler sea surface
temperatures, but it will be interesting to see what happens now.
Barb
Belba Grubb
information. Julia is moving much faster than Igor. Some time
tonight, maybe, they will get into the "magic" 1300-1400 km range.
NHC didn't mention the ridge, so don't be certain that it's there (but
I think I see it, just like the one they did identify between Earl and
Fiona); however, their 5 p.m. discussion on Julia is specially worth
reading for its discussion of that storm's intensity forecast and ways
it might react to the blast from Igor's outflow. They don't mention a
Fujiwhara interaction by name either, but it's going to be
interesting, the interactions between these two. I wonder if that
reduces the reliability of the models once I. and J. get close
enough.
Also, based on the Hunter information, they did drop Igor down to a
strong Category 3 as of 5 p.m., for reasons mentioned in the 5 p.m.
discussion. It may intensify again for a couple days, but right now
Igor is forecast to pass extremely close to Bermuda (a bit to the
west) as a Category 4, like Fabian (I thought it was a 3, but the /
Royal Gazette/ says 4). With Julia so close, and perhaps strong
enough to make a difference, it could be very difficult to say for
sure until the very last moment where Igor will go with regard to the
island. Hope it jogs a bit to the east (not impossible, though a
cyclonic Fujiwhara reaction in response to such a relatively weak
storm as Julia seems very unlikely) - that would spare the island the
worst of it.
Karl is a Category 1 hurricane now and may get up to 2, not 3, per
Jeff Masters.
"We three kings...": http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4132/4997102518_8a75aaed17_b.jpg
Barb
Belba Grubb
might even be a strong 2. Fabian was the 4.
Barb
Peach
subject to change; I'm working on reading and understanding the
forecast dicussons.
*************************************************************************
Belba Grubb
Julia at 5 a.m. by the NHC, the two cyclones are 1506 km apart --
about 100 km shy of the "magic zone" of 1300-1400 km, where
interactions happen. One thing I've learned in all this is that
cyclonic rotation is only one possible Fujiwhara interaction. This is
such a complicated situation, though, whatever happens likely isn't
going to be too obvious. Julia likely isn't going to be absorbed, and
while I'd like to see Igor orbit a bit to the east, sparing Bermuda
that northeast quadrant, it's hard to imagine that happening.
Igor is weakening a bit, but still Category 3. Julia is hanging in
there. Karl has bombed, is a 3 now and expected to be a **4** at
landfall (pobre Mexico).
Barb
------
"Have a nice day and Good Morning to you from a nervous Bermuda on
this Friday September 17Th. 2010."
-- A Bermuda correspondent at Storm Carib,
http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/bermuda.shtml
Belba Grubb
000
WTNT31 KNHC 172349
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IGOR INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 39A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
800 PM AST FRI SEP 17 2010
...LARGE HURRICANE IGOR MARCHING STEADILY NORTHWESTWARD...
SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 61.3W
ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES
...
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.3 WEST. IGOR IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION
WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST LATE
SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
THE HURRICANE WILL BE APPROACHING BERMUDA BY LATE SUNDAY. HOWEVER...
ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT BERMUDA AS EARLY AS
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IGOR IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING.
IGOR IS A PARTICULARLY LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-
STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 345 MILES...555 KM. DURING
THE PAST HOUR...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS NEAR 40 MPH WERE
REPORTED AT NOAA BUOY 41049 LOCATED 245 MI...395 KM...NORTHWEST OF
THE CENTER OF IGOR...AND ALSO AT NOAA BUOY 41044 LOCATED THE SAME
DISTANCE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 947 MB...27.96 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN BERMUDA BY LATE
SATURDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
RAINFALL...IGOR IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER BERMUDA.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING ON BERMUDA. THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN COAST.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...HISPANIOLA...AND PORTIONS OF THE
BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL ALSO
CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS IN BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WHICH WILL WORSEN AS IGOR APPROACHES. SWELLS WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP
CURRENTS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
-- From NHC 8 p.m. Hurricane Igor public advisory at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/172349.shtml
They don't mention tornadoes, which caused quite a lot of the damage
during Fabian's passage.
Of note, for some reason that I don't understand, at about the same
time as this NHC advisory (that is, within the last hour) the Bermuda
Weather Service changed their estimate of Igor's current intensity and
course on their Web site from 0 nm and Category 2 to 10 nautical miles
ESE [which puts Bermuda at least technically out of the dangerous
northeast quadrant] and Category 3 [which is not unreasonable, given
the improved satellite appearance of the storm since the Hunters last
were in it, hours ago, and obtained the wind speed data that NHC used
at 8 p.m.].
I don't know why BMS did that; however, they do still expect Igor to
be a Category 2 when its center reaches the island.
Even at Category 2, that long exposure to tropical storm and hurricane
force winds is really going to test Bermuda's construction standards.
Barb
----------
“Circumstances are beyond human control, but our conduct is in our own
power.”
-- Benjamin Disraeli
Belba Grubb
http://www.weather.bm/webcam.html
Just wanted to share this image of Carter House, posted by one of the
Bermuda correspondents at Storm Carib:
http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/jpgyuAMUIIqAn.jpg
It's made of stone, set into a hillside, and quite likely to withstand
the worst Igor can throw at it (and the correspondent says it will be
exposed to those winds). No-nonsense construction, and that's not
surprising, as online history for the place says that it was built
around 1640 by descendants of one of the two crew members of the
shipwrecked "Sea Venture" who stayed in Bermuda when the other wreck
survivors left for Virginia in 1610.
Eyewitness reports of the wreck of the "Sea Venture" are credited by
some sources as being the inspiration for Shakespeare's description of
a shipwreck in what was then a new play, /The Tempest/.
Barb
-------
"This is a very beautiful building but its very out of the way. You
need a scooter to get there. I wouldn't say its interesting enough to
justify a taxi fare."
-- Comment at a Web site with information on Carter House.
Belba Grubb
to intensify before the core hits Bermuda; actually, Igor has weakened
tremendously, and is a mid-range Category 1 storm now. Those are
still not fun, and the bad news, at least from this keyboard, is that
Igor seems to have still had a northwestward component in its motion
in microwave imagery, although that's difficult to tell in the latter
images with the eye gone:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/marti/2010_11L/webManager/displayGifsBy12hr_12.html
This puts Bermuda in the northeast quadrant. However, per reports at
StormCarib, things are not really bad on the island yet, and the power
company there is restoring what power outages there are but telling
everybody that for safety they are going to have to turn it off
tonight: usually, that isn't optional in a hurricane. It will be
interesting to see who flicks the switch, man or nature.
Julia is still a tropical storm and in fact intensified a bit last
night. If I were in meteorology, I would find the changes in both
storms fascinating, but I'm not, and nobody is mentioning them, so I
won't delve into it further. Of note, Igor and Julia are now moving
apart, being 1316 km about 24 hours ago and 1352 km this morning,
using the NHC location data given in the 8 a.m. advisory.
Meanwhile, in an unusually quiet Pacific basin, Typhoon Fanapi made
landfall in Taiwan as a Category 3 and killed 3 people, per Jeff
Masters:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1625
Barb
-------------
"Go quietly, Igor, and remember what peace there may be in silence… "
-- Astronaut Doug Wheelock, from space, September 14, 2010, at
http://twitpic.com/2oi7m6
Belba Grubb
they are doing a live chat online at
http://www.royalgazette.com/rg/section.jsp?sectionId=3 Lots of
updates from Bermuda, encouragement from the outside world, and my
favorite so far, from Ian: "For those asking earlier in the day, Man
Utd beat Liverpool 3-2. Stay safe."
I love the British.
Anyway, it sounds like the strong winds are coming in now. Smart
money is on the hurricane shutting down the island's power switch,
although just now, 97% of the responders said that they still had
power (some credibility in that, given the expansion of mobile phones
and batteries).
BWS reports the NW jog in Igor's track. They are getting the NE
quadrant, and so are very fortunate that the cyclone weakened so
much. The BWS Web cam is in the East End and the weather director has
been predicting "tornadic winds" there though no tornadoes have been
reported yet, per this article:
http://www.royalgazette.com/rg/Article/article.jsp?articleId=7da99c230030000§ionId=60
The rain bands look like fog on the cam but perhaps a tornado sighting
might be possible there, with persistent viewing
Storm surge up to 5 feet is predicted by BWS.
Barb
Belba Grubb
Canada, so just wanted to post again the CHC URL:
http://www.ec.gc.ca/ouragans-hurricanes/default.asp?lang=En&n=C95F66EC-1
Please note also the current special statements:
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/warnings/sws_e.html
The current tracking map is interesting. Igor is expected to lose its
warm core and so become a post-tropical storm later today, but not to
weaken much as it passes through the Davis Straits, per the NHC, until
it nears Greenland! The NHC is still tracking it, too:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/211445.shtml
Otherwise, there are a couple of probable "fish" out in the eastern
Atlantic (one of them TS Lisa), but the current Invest 95L in the
Caribbean is the one worth keeping an eye on:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201095_model.html
Per Jeff Masters (and the models), it could become a West Caribbean
hurricane endangering Central America with flooding, or it could
possibly get into the Gulf. There is still a lot of heat potential to
be tapped in the Caribbean; what became Karl didn't touch it.
Barb
-------------
Hud: "Ocean is big, dude. All I'm saying is a couple of years ago,
they found a fish in Madagascar that they thought been extinct for
centuries."
Rob: "So what? It's been down there this whole time, and nobody
noticed?"
Hud: "Sure. Maybe it erupted from an ocean trench, you know? Or a
crevasse...I mean, crevice. It's just a theory. I mean, for all we
know, it's from another planet and it flew here."
Marlena: "Like Superman?"
Hud: "Yeah, exactly like... Wait. You know who Superman is?"
Marlena: "Oh, my God. You know who Superman is?"
Hud: "Okay, I'm not..."
Marlena: "I'm, like, feeling something. Are you aware of Garfield?"
-- A little tunnel talk from /Cloverfield/
Belba Grubb II
a circulation, so we have Tropical Depression 15. Apparently they
didn't find it closed, though, so it will take a little while (but not
too long) before it becomes Tropical Storm (and later Hurricane)
Matthew.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SOME COASTAL
FLOODING NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DANGEROUS WAVES.
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
-- From TD 15 Public Advisory at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT5+shtml/231749.shtml
Right now, the NHC has it more or less drifting around just off the
coast or just inland in the Western Caribbean as a Category 1 -- the
intensity at this point doesn't matter as much as the rainfall it will
cause. There's going to be bad flooding from roughly Nicaragua to the
tip of the Yucatan.
The current models show it hanging around, intensifying, and then
heading over Cuba to the Florida West Coast. *If* it does that, it
could be a big one -- a lot depends on its interaction with land
during the next several days.
Barb
-----------
"If you want to see the sunshine, you have to weather the storm."
-- Frank Lane
Belba Grubb
remarkable about this cyclone just yet (although the potential for
flooding from high rainfall amounts and storm surge along the Yucatan,
Honduran, Nicaraguan Caribbeean coast lines over the next several days
may eventually make it infamous), but I was reading Jeff Masters'
update with a summary of Matthew's predicted course and got thinking
of how geologists complain that they can't forecast earthquakes well
because so much of their data source is hidden from them.
Meteorologists do not necessarily have it better just because
everything what they study is out in the open:
"Forecast for TD 15" [he probably posted this just before the NHC
declared it Matthew.]
...
"The future track and intensity of TD 15 depends critically upon the
storm's interaction with land over the coming days. If TD 15 misses
making landfall in Nicaragua and Honduras, and instead skirts the
north coast of Honduras, the storm is likely to intensify into a
hurricane by Sunday, as indicated in the official NHC forecast.
However, if TD 15 spends significant time over or barely offshore of
Honduras, the storm will likely stay below hurricane strength. TD 15
is being forced just north of due west by a strong ridge of high
pressure. This ridge will keep the storm moving at 15 mph through
Saturday. On Sunday, a trough of low pressure diving southwards over
the Eastern U.S. will weaken the steering currents over the Western
Caribbean and cause TD 15 to slow and turn more to the north. TD 15
will begin a period of slow and erratic movement on Sunday that may
last many days, as the storm wanders in the Western Caribbean and over
Belize, Honduras, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. If the center of TD
15 spends significant time over water, the storm could easily develop
into powerful and dangerous Hurricane Matthew. If the center remains
mostly over land, TD 15 will still generate extremely heavy rains over
Central America, but remain below hurricane strength. By late next
week, the trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. may lift out,
allowing a ridge of high pressure to build in and force TD 15
westwards across the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico's
Bay of Campeche. Alternatively, the trough of low pressure over the
Eastern U.S. may amplify, drawing TD 15 northwards across Western Cuba
and into Florida. A complicating factor may be the development of a
new tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 8 days from now,
as predicted by both the GFS and NOGAPS models with their latest 12Z
(8am EDT) runs. The uncertainties in the long-range fate of TD 15 are
high, and depend strongly on slight variations in its track that
determine how much time the storm spends over land...."
-- From Jeff Masters Wunderground blog post at 7:32 p.m. GMT on
September 23, 2010, at http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1630
Barb
--------
"IF you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you,
If you can trust yourself when all men doubt you,
But make allowance for their doubting too;
If you can wait and not be tired by waiting...."
-- Kipling, "If" at http://www.kipling.org.uk/poems_if.htm
Belba Grubb
Matthew/ex-Matthew's future development/track.
Matthew is still a named storm, but now a tropical depression, over
extreme southern Mexico and is expected to dissipate within, at the
most, 48 hours. For most tropical cyclones, that would be it - hasta
la vista, baby. However, the GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF (and perhaps
others -- I just routinely check those online) all show Matthew's
remnants moving back out into the Western Caribbean and interacting
with something either over the Caribbean or coming in from the Pacific
over Central America, with the formation of a hurricane that continues
on up over Florida and northward a little later.
In Jeff Masters' viewpoint yesterday on his blog at
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1633
(emphasis added):
"Most of the models continue to predict that by Wednesday, the
remnants of Matthew, and/or a piece of a tropical disturbance over the
Eastern Pacific off the coast of Guatemala, will evolve into a huge
and very wet low pressure system that will start spinning over Central
America and the Western Caribbean. NHC has been referring to this
expected storm as a "monsoon low", and these sorts of storms are very
dangerous for Central America and the Western Caribbean, even if they
do not develop into a tropical storm. In October 2007, a similar
monsoon low I dubbed "the sleeping giant" spent a week spinning over
the region, dumping very heavy rains over all of Central America and
the countries bordering the Western Caribbean. Rains from this system
triggered flooding that killed 45 people in Haiti, damaged thousands
of homes in Cuba, and caused havoc in Guatemala, El Salvador, Belize,
Mexico, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Bahamas. A similar type
of storm is likely to develop on Wednesday and Thursday, and most of
Central America and the nations surrounding the Western Caribbean can
expect to see dangerous flooding rains develop this week in
association with this giant low. Most of the models also predict that
this big low will eventually develop into a tropical storm or
hurricane that would be drawn northwards over Cuba late in the week,
and threaten the Bahamas, Florida, or the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast.
*This is an exceptionally difficult system to forecast correctly, and
the models have been coming up with some pretty unusual solutions as
to what might happen.* We'll just have to wait and see what unfolds
over the next few days."
The morning the models seem to show it heading more northward than
east, so maybe the Bahamas will be spared, but the American Southeast
could catch it.
Damages in Central America have been surprisingly light per current
online news , despite Matthew's dropping 6-10 inches of rain so far,
causing flooding and landslides, particularly in Guatemala:
http://www.prensa-latina.cu/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=223603&Itemid=1
and http://www.latribuna.hn/web2.0/?p=186939 (both in Spanish)
Barb
--------
"Could we just skip along to Mark, Luke and John please?"
-- One of StormCarib's Belize correspondents, September 23rd
Belba Grubb II
Overview of Tropical Meteorology/ at http://www.meted.ucar.edu/dl_courses/tropical_wmo/index.htm
has a section on extratropical transition that might be interesting to
review this week. (Again, registration at the MetEd Web site is
simple, free, and they really don't spam you or share your e-mail with
anyone.)
Igor still had a warm core and was a hurricane, Category 1, when it
ravaged Newfoundland, but Nicole is expected to become extratropical
fairly quickly and merge with a strong low pressure system to make for
some bad weather along the East Coast in the upcoming weeks. I don't
know too much about the transition and effects and so am looking
forward to reading this - just wanted to share it.
Barb
---------
Stormy Weather (Horne):
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QCG3kJtQBKo
Belba Grubb II
the visible satellite image there of Hurricane Ivan is a good example
of how misleading images can be. As shown here, the center was
approximately right overhead from where I lived at that time, in West
Central Alabama, and yet there really wasn't much happening around us
on the ground, no matter how exciting it looks overhead and in spite
of the way this hurricane had devastated the Caribbean. I remember
being all keyed up and then it got there and..."this is all?" It was
quite a surprise.
Ivan had ingested a bunch of Sonoran dry air just before landfall and
had actually decapitated (the upper part of the inner core of
convection disconnected from the lower part), per the NHC, right at
landfall or a little before. You could see it better on the IR
views. Knowing this, you can see it a little bit on the visible
image, too, but otherwise, that just looks like a spectacular banding
pattern near the center.
Barb
---------
"Who you gonna believe, me or your own eyes?"
-- Chico Marx, in /Duck Soup/
Belba Grubb
right now. The country is literally awash, with roads out, houses
collapsing, at least 8 people missing so (2 confirmed dead, including
a child in a house that collapsed near a Burger King), and people
stranded. A 19th-century church has been flattened by a "freak
storm" (apparently this is what they call tornadoes down there: a
waterspout came ashore and hit the church).
A word of advice from a Storm Carib Jamaican correspondent: "For those
up north from us where the storm is heading - take special care, this
one is really packing a punch and has taken many by surprise. Don't
take chances, it's not worth it."
Jamaica Observer: http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/
Jamaica Gleaner: http://www.jamaica-gleaner.com/
Landslides and roads out are reported by a Dominican Republic
correspondent to Storm Carib; no mention of conditions in Haiti from
the Twitter folks there I follow, other than a general condition that
the country's weather service has an orange alert up (as they also
did, but erroneously, for Igor).
Meanwhile, in the Wilmington, NC, area, where rain totals of "at
least" 21-22 inches in some places are considered likely in the next
24 hours, they just posted this forecast discussion:
FXUS62 KILM 300524
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
124 AM EDT THU SEP 30 2010
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING HISTORIC FLOODING RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
ARE SHAPING UP PERFECTLY FOR THE WEEKEND AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 9 PM WEDNESDAY...AN EPIC AND HISTORIC FLOODING EVENT IS
ONGOING ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR REGION. RAINFALL RECORDS THAT WERE
SET DURING 1999`S HURRICANE FLOYD...A ONCE IN 500 YEAR STORM...ARE
GOING TO BE THREATENED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A TREMENDOUS
STREAM OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLAM ONSHORE.
REPORTS OF ROAD CLOSURES ARE PILING UP ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA AND TRAVEL IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED TONIGHT.
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW OVER NORTH ALABAMA IS DIRECTING
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE
CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES. POES TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY CONFIRMS MODEL PROJECTIONS OF PW`S IN THE 2.5 INCH RANGE.
A SURFACE FRONT STALLED JUST OFF THE COAST IS ENHANCING LIFT AND
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...INCREASING PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY. THE
REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WILL NOT
DIRECTLY AFFECT THE REGION TONIGHT...BUT A NEW BAROCLINIC LOW
IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST AND WILL
MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS LOW WILL DEEPEN
RAPIDLY...AND SHOULD DRAG THE SURFACE FRONT BACK INTO THE CAPE
FEAR COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
AN ADDITIONAL SIX INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS BURGAW...
WILMINGTON...BOLIVIA...AND ELIZABETHTOWN WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING STORM TOTALS AT
WILMINGTON TO AT LEAST 21-22 INCHES AND MAY ECLIPSE THE 3 AND 4 DAY
HURRICANE FLOYD TOTAL THAT IS THE RAINFALL EVENT OF RECORD FOR
THIS AREA. FARTHER INLAND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LOWER...BUT
STILL SIGNIFICANT WITH AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.
AS THE FRONT MOVES ONSHORE INTO COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR WILL FLOOD ONSHORE WITH
STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS. 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES NEAR 250 M2/S2
COUPLED WITH CAPE AROUND 500 J/KG COULD CREATE A RISK FOR
TORNADOES MUCH LIKE ONE WOULD SEE IN A LANDFALLING TROPICAL
SYSTEM. REGARDLESS...925 MB WIND SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS WILL
GIVE ANY STRONG CONVECTION THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. SYNOPTIC SURFACE WINDS IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO
45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE EVEN OUTSIDE CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
NORTH CAROLINA BEACHES.
A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH LATE TONIGHT...ENDING THE HEAVY RAINFALL. HEAVY RAIN MAY
PERSIST ALONG THE NC COAST THROUGH MID TO LATE THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE TAPERING OFF.
TEMPERATURES INLAND WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70. AT THE COAST...PARTICULARLY THE NC COAST...TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE OVERNIGHT WITH THE FRONT APPROACHING AND MOVING ONSHORE.
TEMPS COULD RISE AS HIGH AS 76-77 DEGREES NORTH OF CAPE FEAR BY
3-4 AM...WITH A SCREAMING SOUTHEAST WIND.
Per NWS Wilmington at
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=ILM&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
(there are live links at this site to glossary explanations of various
technical terms used).
To view estimated rainfall amounts via radar:
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=ltx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no
(This is the Doppler radar view. Click "storm total" under
"rainfall." Don't know how well these verify, but right now it does
show a few areas that have already gotten some 10 inches of rain.
I'm no expert, but basically, this may be the equivalent of a tropical
storm with a cold core. What happened is that Tropical Storm Nicole
(which was declared dissipated in the NHC's 5 p.m. discussion) merged
with a very strong low north of it, just as the models predicted:
http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4111/5037178803_f0bab53a8c_z.jpg .
It's not going to weaken significantly in the next couple of days
anyway, and has no place to go but north, right up the East Coast.
NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center is issuing discussion and
summaries now:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/discuss.shtml
However, I included the NWS Wilmington text here because that's about
2-1/2 hours more recent than the current HPC summary.
Barb
------------
The beauty of trigonometry: http://www.reddit.com/tb/bnzgx
Belba Grubb II
reveals:
1. Only scattered major flooding, even in the hardest-hit areas of
North Carolina.
2. No major flooding anywhere.
This per http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=ilm&view=1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1&toggles=10,7,8,2,9,15,6
. Just enough water soaked in, even in NC, to help.
Well, there's another month of the Atlantic peak season to go, and
then another 30 days after that.. Hopefully this last third of the
season won't be nearly as exciting as the first two-thirds have been.
We may or may not see an Otto form in the next week to 10 days; the
models vary on this, but the ones that show it also appear to show it
as an "ordinary" tropical cyclone.
Although it is long gone, Matthew's effects on Mexico have been long-
term and deadly. Hurricanes don't remain dangerous for months and
years after the event, the way volcanoes do, but their effects can
still cause heavy impacts on people for days after the storm has
dissipated.
Of course, all of this--even the flooding in Jamaica--pales in
comparison to the flooding in Pakistan this year, caused by heavier
than usual monsoon rains because of the La Nina atmospheric phase that
started in July (and which also contributed to increased hurricane
activity in the Atlantic basin because of its effect on vertical wind
shear profiles there) as well as a "freezing" of the jet stream as
described by some scientists.
Barb
--------------
“What is the appropriate behavior for a man or a woman in the midst of
this world, where each person is clinging to his piece of debris?
What's the proper salutation between people as they pass each other in
this flood?”
-- Attributed to the Buddha at several sites but not found in a
search at AccessToInsight.org
Belba Grubb II
challenge-oriented person, including when I'm behind the wheel: "I
think I can make it across."
Don't bet on it. The National Weather Service has a saying it
includes when it issues a flood warning: "Turn around...don't
drown."
The floods from this last system killed six or seven people, all in
traffic accidents, in eastern North Carolina, and a lady up in New
York state whose car was swept off the road as she went to work. She
was probably really familiar with that road and figured she knew it
well enough to avoid trouble; that's how I think, and probably never
knew just how lucky I was until now. Don't know too much about the
accidents in NC, other than that one of them involved hydroplaning,
but it probably included drivers who felt sure they knew how to drive
in heavy rain. Water carries many illusions with it and fools the
best of us sometimes.
Just saying. As for tropical weather, things look pretty slow in the
Atlantic just now, with a couple unlikely possibilities, and ongoing
rain in the Caribbean. The models get pretty interesting later in the
coming week though.
Barb
------------
"He was standing there, hanging onto nothing," said Tad Agoglia,
[First Response Team's] founder. "When we got him in the hovercraft,
he just held onto me. I've never had a full-grown man hold onto me
like that, where all I could feel was his body shaking."
-- Describing someone who tried to walk out, quoted in
http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2010/10/02/1732391/flooding-swamps-counties-down.html#ixzz11EdUOgHl
Belba Grubb
probability that Hurricane Paula, if it continues to strengthen, may
possible head over Cuba, Florida and the Bahamas and get involved in
the trough that, no matter what, is going to be bringing the Northeast
coast a nor'easter soon. Again, this is extremely unlikely, as wind
shear is expected to keep Paula from becoming a major hurricane, and
most likely it will just wander around in the northern Caribbean as a
weak Category 1 for a while after the steering atmospheric currents
around it collapse.
It's not completely impossible, though, and is quite interesting
because the scenario would somewhat resemble the "perfect storm" of
1991. Figured it was was worth mentioning, just in case.
There's a lot of uncertainty about exactly where the cyclonic low
(nor'easter) will form, and also a lot of uncertainty about exactly
what is going to happen with Paula. From this amateur's quick look at
the models this morning, Paula seems unlikely to leave the Caribbean,
although one model (NOGAPS) may be showing it entering the Gulf, and a
couple models are starting to show another development in the southern
Caribbean in several days that might get pretty interesting.
Barb
-----------
The "Clint Eastwood" of modern hurricanes:
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/satellite/satelliteseye/hurricanes/unnamed91/unnamed91.html
Belba Grubb
Prediction Center (HPC) short-range forecast:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_wbg.php (link is time-
dependent; good through the end of this week or so).
Hurricane Paula is already weakening and getting badly affected by
strong wind shear. Even though it avoided Mexico and went stationary
in the Yucatan Channel for a while, over what Jeff Masters described
as the warmest water in the Atlantic right now, it couldn't intensify
enough. There will be flooding in the Cayman's and western Cuba,
though; the question is whether Florida and the Bahamas will get some
of this, too.
What likely will be Richard, coming up from the southern Caribbean
might have more muscle, per some of the models. Too early to tell,
though,.
Barb
--------------
StormCarib's Caymans page:
http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/cayman.shtml
Belba Grubb
year, although most occur between June 1 and October 1. It has been
unusually quiet this year, and the one out there now, Megi, is in "hog
heaven"; it's expected to be a supertyphoon (it would be a Category 4
hurricane, if this was the Atlantic) when it hits Luzon, most probably
some time Monday, which is bad news for millions of people, but what
is also interesting is that the mountains on the don't mean its doom.
After it crosses Luzon, it is forecast to re-intensify to at least a
Category 3. There is very high heat content out there, and I wonder
if Megi will be the exception or the first of several Western Pacific
storms. I don't follow those very much, but did want to mention; it
has been an unusual year.
The Central Pacific Hurricane Center page covers the area for Hawaii
and also has links to the agencies that monitor the Western Pacific
(Joint Typhoon Warning Center and the Japan Meteorological Agency,
which is also a useful link for earthquakes/tsunami information in
that region): http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/cphc/
Typhoon Megi page at Wunderground:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/wp201015_5day.html#a_topad
Barb
Belba Grubb
Super Typhoon 15W (Megi), # 2
By Dave Ornauer
Published: October 17, 2010
"11 p.m. Philippines Time, Sunday, Oct. 17: PST has been observing
typhoons of all sizes and shapes in his 30 years with Stripes ... but
never has he observed sustained and gusts of 180 and 220 mph at the
center of any storm until Super Typhoon Megi, which contines to zero
in on Luzon Island.
"At 8 p.m. local, Megi (or Juan) was 360 miles northeast of Manila,
heading toward Luzon at 14 mph. Landfall is forecast for mid-day
Monday, and Megi is projected to continue to remain at Category 1 or 2
strength even over land, until it rumbles back over open water into
the South China Sea late Monday evening.
"Please pray for the folks in northeast Luzon."
--
http://www.stripes.com/blogs/pacific-storm-tracker/pacific-storm-tracker-1.106563/super-typhoon-15w-megi-2-1.122079
Yes, sustained winds of 180 mph with gusts of 220 mph:
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/satshots/15W_171130sair.jpg
.
Evacuations are underway, highest warnings are up, and everybody's
bracing for it, per online news reports at news.google.com and
news.google.es (Spanish). Fortunately it's not a heavily populated
area of the island, but thousands are still evacuating, especially
along rivers. There are two webcams listed in Google Maps for Luzon:
http://maps.google.com/maps?ll=15.599793,121.971619&spn=7.602771,9.876709&z=7&lci=com.google.webcams
Don't know if they will be running tomorrow morning, Philippines time.
Barb
Belba Grubb
ago:
AS OF 6:00 PM TODAY (MONDAY, 18 OCTOBER 2010), TYPHOON “JUAN” WAS
LOCATED AT 115 KM SOUTHWEST OF TUGUEGARAO CITY OR 60 KM NORTH
NORTHEAST OF BAGUIO CITY (16.9°N, 120.8°E).
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 180 KPH NEAR THE CENTER
GUSTINESS: UP TO 215 KPH
FORECAST MOVEMENT: WEST SOUTHWEST
SPEED: 19 KPH
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE: 945 hPa
Pressure was down to 893 per the Hurricane Hunters yesterday (who are
over there in a joint study program); don't know how low that finally
got, but the Pacific is such a wild place, 20 typhoons were ahead of
Megi/Juan on the records list at that point.
The eye came ashore at Divalcan Peak in the Sierra Madre (Isabela) at
11:25 a.m., they say. Those mountains have knocked Megi/Juan down to
its currently barely Category 3 intensity (though gusts are still up
in Category 4 territory). It has to negotiate the Cordillera Central
now (where all the volcanoes apparently are sleeping soundly) and is
still expected to be a strong storm when it returns to water. It will
strengthen back up to Supertyphoon status for a while but increased
wind shear should weaken it as it approaches Southern China and/or
Hainan.
Philippine geography/geology certainly is a tough testing ground for
typhoons.
Barb
---------------
“May you always have walls for the winds, a roof for the rain, tea
beside the fire, laughter to cheer you, those you love near you and
all your heart might desire."
-- Irish blessing
Belba Grubb
"MANILA, Philippines—'Team Philippines' proved the world wrong after
it was able to overcome the strongest typhoon so far this year with
minimal loss of lives, the officer in charge of the weather bureau
said Tuesday.
"Science Undersecretary Graciano Yumul said international news reports
last weekend had been saying that heavy damage to life and property
was expected in the Philippines, being a developing country with weak
houses and infrastructure.
“'I think we were able to prove them wrong,' said Yumul, the OIC of
the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services
Administration (PAGASA).
"At press time, the Inquirer recorded at least 12 people dead in
northern and central Luzon. Benito Ramos, executive director of the
National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council, said 10 were
confirmed dead and six injured.
"Yumul said government preparedness and the people’s cooperation
helped minimize the losses from Super-typhoon 'Juan' (international
codename: Megi), which made landfall in Isabela province on Monday.
“'I think Typhoon Juan showed you Team Philippines,; he said at a
briefing in Malacañang."
-- From "PAGASA: Team RP proves world wrong" at
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/inquirerheadlines/nation/view/20101020-298686/PAGASA-Team-RP-proves-world-wrong
He's right. Consider that this:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/101017-18_mtsat_vis_anim.gif
came in just about straight over this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=osE8emhLgFI
The town, which is only accessible by helicopter and small boat right
now, has almost 4000 people; only 3 people died and 10 were injured.
They should have been annihilated; per the province governor, "The
waves in Maconacon were as big as houses and swamped the town plaza
facing the Pacific Ocean” (at
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/inquirerheadlines/nation/view/20101020-298677/Juan-leaves-12-dead-P15-B-crop-lost
). That, in a small and very extreme way, is an example of what
played out all over northern Luzon (and points south, where there was
heavy flooding), although the numbers of fatalities and injured are
likely to rise as they get into some of the more isolated places.
Congratulations, Team Philippines!
Meanwhile, the big Catfish (Korean is "Megi") is out in the South
China Sea now, at Category 4 strength, and poking along at about 4
mph. The models aren't quite sure where it will come in, ranging all
the way from Taiwan to Hainan, but it is forecast to be be much weaker
at its next landfall, in the Category 2 range.
Barb
-------------
"Ang mabigat ay gumagaan, kung pinagtutulungan."
(A heavy burden is lightened if everyone participates in carrying it.)
-- Filipino proverb, quoted at http://www.angelfire.com/on4/zambalesforum/filipino_proverbs.htm
Belba Grubb
adjust Megi's forecast track more northward and right now it is
expected to come in somewhat east of Hong Kong, although one of the
reliable models points it directly at Hong Kong. It will be stronger
than expected, too, possibly even a Category 3 (major) although
transition to a 2 may be in progress at landfall.
Also, like all strong storms, Megi apparently reworked the coastline
to some extent in Isabela Province. They are thinking of just
relocating Maconacon elsewhere; it was apparently the worst hit
(totally leveled), but two other towns in the immediate landfall area
also are in bad shape:
http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/regions/10/20/10/maconacon-isabela-destroyed
Barb
------------
“Faith is not simply a patience that passively suffers until the storm
is past. Rather, it is a spirit that bears things - with resignations,
yes, but above all, with blazing, serene hope.”
-- Corazon Aquino
Belba Grubb
come in as a major hurricane, and may not even be a hurricane at
landfall (which is now expected most probably well east of Hong Kong),
but rather a tropical storm. How the mighty...
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=46459&src=eorss-nh
...will have fallen. (Not yet, though: it is still a Category 3
catfish out there.)
There's another one brewing, per the JTWC; they say a "significant
tropical cyclone" could form in the next 24 hours. It could become a
threat to the Northern Marianas, where Pagan Volcano is on Advisory
status, Aviation Code Yellow. Perhaps this is an unusual year, with
unusually late activity in, at least, the western Pacific.
Northern Marianas updates from USGS: http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/nmi/activity/index.php
The JTWC information page is at http://www.usno.navy.mil/JTWC/ for
those interested.
The Satellite Services Division tropical Pacific page is at
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-epac.html (wonder if any of these
Central Pacific views, none of them thermal, will show Kilauea's
plume).
Wunderground's Western Pacific page (named storms only) is at
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/?index_region=wp . The sea
surface temperature graphic here is interesting: they are in a La Nina
phase now, with cooler SSTs; however, not only is there a respectable
pool of very warm surface temperatures there (at least per this
graphic), it also appears that Megi, which was not a quick mover,
didn't really cool the surface waters as much as such a powerful storm
should have, i.e., the warm water must extend fairly deeply. It's
still "Hog Heaven" for any tropical cyclone that forms there, if other
factors are okay. Perhaps that is why the JTWC mentioned "significant
tropical cyclone" in their current update on the newbie (95W, though
it already looks impressive on the satellite view available via the
JTWC site).
I promise not to go wild over the Australian TC season, when it starts
up...unless something really unusually neat happens. (BG)
Earth sure is an interesting place. Why even think about leaving it
for the stars?
Barb
-----------
“Space is to place as eternity is to time.”
-- Joseph Joubert (see also http://preview.tinyurl.com/JoubertSelectionOfHisThoughts
)
Belba Grubb
over so quickly and also because it struck a region where it takes
days for word of damages and fatalities to leak out. Those reports
are now starting to emerge, although the numbers (27 dead, 15 missing
currently) seem rather low. Am following the online news; Twitter
isn't too helpful, as most of the tweets are in other languages.
Don't even know where to begin to select tweets for a Google Translate
attempt.
Per Jeff Masters, Giri had winds some 20 mph faster than Nargis last
year, which killed over 138,000 people; however, the region where it
made landfall is not as low-lying:
Giri: http://preview.tinyurl.com/ReliefWebGiriMap
Nargis: http://preview.tinyurl.com/ReliefWebNargisMap
Giri is now the strongest tropical cyclone to hit Myanmar in recorded
times. I think those mountains in the Giri map are part of the
Rakhine or Araman Yoma mountain arc. They probably had much to do
with the cyclone's rapid dissolution after landfall. However, Giri
had very rapid development, too: it appeared pretty much out of
nowhere, and fed on the very hot water and ideal atmospheric
conditions of that part of the northern Indian Ocean to turn into a 60
mph tropical storm rather quickly. Then, it progressed into almost a
Category 5 equivalent storm with 155 mph winds...in 24 hours. It then
plowed into Rakhine State in Myanmar, and while it didn't exactly go
"poof," the Joint Typhoon Warning Center issued its last statement on
the storm some six hours after landfall.
Am not sure, but I think Giri could well join Cyclone Ului (March
2010, South Pacific) and Wilma (October 2005, North Caribbean) as one
of the most rapidly intensifying cyclones on record. However, Wilma
lasted for 11 days, Ului for 12, but Giri was only around for 3 days,
start to finish!
As this graphic currently shows (time dependent)--
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ewalltropmain.html
--the Bay of Bengal and the Western Pacific continue to have very
favorable conditions for tropical cyclone development (and Campeche
Bay does not, which is why it's Poor Richard out there now as a
tropical depression and, fortunately, not Major Hurricane Richard).
Tropical Storm Chaba is in the Western Pacific (16W just hung in there
and finally got going: http://farm2.static.flickr.com/1099/5115548569_0aa8bc9b23_z.jpg
), but that won't be another Megi; it is expected to be about a
Category 2-equivalent storm when it reaches the region of Kyushu/
Okinawa before veering north and east away from land. The JMA is
keeping a close eye on it: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/ .
Barb
------------
"It was one of those hot, silent nights, when people sit at windows
listening for the thunder which they know will shortly break; when
they recall dismal tales of hurricanes and earthquakes; and of lonely
travellers on open plains, and lonely ships at sea, struck by
lightning."
-- Charles Dickens, "Martin Chuzzlewit," Chapter 42
Belba Grubb
Chaba is becoming a force to be reckoned with--due to a dual exhaust
system, per the JTWC!!--and is now expected to reach a Category 4
equivalent on Thursday, and then drop down to a Category 3 equivalent
very early Friday:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/wp201016.html
As this time-dependent graphic shows, the typhoon could rake the
entire length of the islands of Japan Friday, but hopefully, it will
stay offshore, to the east.
Whew - what a day.
Barb
-----------
# 風と女は閉じ込められない
(Kaze to onna ha tojikome rarenai - literally You can't lock in wind
or woman)
-- Japanese proverb, quoted at http://www.japan-101.com/language/japanese_proverbs.htm
Belba Grubb
why Hurricane Tomas is unique, even this early in its career:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1678
He has been at the NHC and so these photos are especially interesting,
as they show people there at work on the current storms. (Note, though
that Shary is now a tropical storm.)
The current GFS and NOGAPS models, to this amateur's eye anyway, do
show Tomas intensifying strongly and then moving right over
Hispaniola, and not quickly, either; however, that's several days from
now, when model forecast errors are high. It is sobering to just
think about the possibility of a Category 3 or 4 making landfall
anywhere along the south coast of that island, but particularly on the
west.
However, they are thinking of it already there:
http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFN3028262220101030
They've caught a break this year through most of the season. Now we
may see how the preparations hold up, if Tomas heads that way
Barb
---------
"Bondye Bon." (God is good.)
-- Haitian proverb, quoted at http://www.hartford-hwp.com/archives/43a/008.html
Belba Grubb
Dominica apparently had no structural damage.
Tomas is barely a hurricane now, and under heavy shear with a big
patch of dry air nearby, some of which is getting sheared into the
storm. It's rather mindboggling to see a storm under conditions that
have torn apart more intense hurricanes still forecast to become a
major hurricane on Thursday or Friday. NHC's 5-day cone is centered,
um, pretty much on PaP for landfall, as a category 3 (probably
intensifying), but Jeff Masters points out the problems with this long-
term forecast:
"The computer model solutions from the latest set of 8am EDT (12Z)
runs include a strike on Haiti on Friday (GFS and GFDL models), a
strike on the Dominican Republic on Friday (NOGAPS model), a strike on
Haiti on Saturday (UKMET model), a strike on Jamaica and eastern Cuba
on Thursday (Canadian), or a strike on Puerto Rico on Friday (HWRF)."
-- From WunderGround Blog post on October 31, 2010, at
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1679
He believes now that Tomas will be a Category 1 when it hits either
Haiti or the Dominican Republic on Friday.
Not that this is great, either: a Category 1 hit Jacmel a few years
ago and really did a number on the area, which was not prepared.
However, it would be way better than a major hurricane.
Haiti is currently under an Orange Alert for this. The most complete
news source I found for preparations there is http://www.haitilibre.com/en/
(English version). Just found this Twitter feed today; it might be
helpful, too: http://twitter.com/Haitifeed
Sigh.
Barb
------------
Shadows of a thousand years rise again unseen,
Voices whisper in the trees, "Tonight is Halloween!"
~Dexter Kozen
Belba Grubb II
"westerly vertical shear...which appears to be primarily due to the
differences between the lower- and mid-tropospheric flow...
continues to impact Tomas. Consequently the cyclone remains highly
decoupled as the low-level center is displaced more than 100 N mi
west of the deep convection."
-- http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at201021.disc.html#a_topad
This year, such a dramatic change in storm structure only seems to set
the cyclone back a bit rather than destroy it. However, NHC has
reduced their expected intensity at landfall (somewhere between
Eastern Cuba and the eastern shore of Hispaniola, the 5-day cone
having moved west and being centered now along the Tiburon Peninsula,
in the general area of Les Cayes) to Category 1, although with the
caution that there is a lot of uncertainty about future intensity.
Given the damage in the eastern Caribbean, such caution is certainly a
good thing.
Barb
----------
"The future is an opaque mirror. Anyone who tries to look into it sees
nothing but the dim outlines of an old and worried face."
-- Jim Bishop
"Computers can figure out all kinds of problems, except the things in
the world that just don't add up."
-- James Magary
Belba Grubb II
solution I saw last night.
The good news is that, at least as of last night, the GFS (which has
been much more reliable, in the eyes of this amateur anyway) did not
show that happening; the trough did pick Tomas up and carry it
northward. The bad news is the last part of the text mentioned.
000
WTNT41 KNHC 020837
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 AM EDT TUE NOV 02 2010
TOMAS HAS THE APPEARANCE OF A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING TROPICAL
STORM. OVERNIGHT...THERE HAS BEEN A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN THE
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CIRCULATION...DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY BEEN INCREASING NEAR
THE CENTER. ENHANCED IR IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTS SOME BANDING
FEATURES DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. ON THE FINAL PASS
OF AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE OUTBOUND FROM THE CENTER
OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...THE MAXIMUM UNFLAGGED SFMR-MEASURED
SURFACE WIND SPEED WAS 44 KT. THE INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
UPWARD...TO 45 KT...ON THIS ADVISORY. TOMAS IS FORECAST TO MOVE
OVER WATERS OF INCREASINGLY HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT AND ALTHOUGH
SOME SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR WILL PROBABLY IMPACT THE SYSTEM...THE
SHEAR IS NOT LIKELY TO BECOME VERY STRONG FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
BRINGS TOMAS TO HURRICANE INTENSITY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS
SIMILAR TO THE RELIABLE LGEM GUIDANCE BUT BELOW THE GFDL FORECAST
INTENSITY PREDICTION.
BASED ON THE HURRICANE HUNTER FIXES...THE STORM CONTINUES MOVING
WESTWARD...OR ABOUT 270/10. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING FOR THE
NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS REMAINS THE SAME AS BEFORE. TOMAS SHOULD BE
STEERED ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY 72-96 HOURS...THE
FLOW AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH SHOULD TURN THE
DEEPENING CYCLONE SHARPLY NORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
TROUGH COULD SWING NORTHEASTWARD AND NOT COMPLETELY PICK UP TOMAS.
THEREFORE THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD
LINGER NEAR NORTHERN HISPANIOLA FOR A DAY OR TWO...BEFORE THE
WESTERLIES EVENTUALLY CARRY IT FARTHER OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC. THAT
POSSIBILITY...HOWEVER...IS NOT EXPLICITLY SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL
TRACK FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 02/0900Z 13.5N 72.0W 45 KT
12HR VT 02/1800Z 13.7N 73.1W 50 KT
24HR VT 03/0600Z 14.0N 74.4W 55 KT
36HR VT 03/1800Z 14.4N 75.3W 60 KT
48HR VT 04/0600Z 15.0N 75.8W 65 KT
72HR VT 05/0600Z 16.3N 75.2W 80 KT
96HR VT 06/0600Z 19.0N 72.5W 70 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 07/0600Z 21.5N 70.0W 60 KT...OVER WATER
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
The Haiti Feed Twitter feed is giving a lot of news updates on
preparations there. This one especially caught my eye (it's a "South
Florida Caribbean News" article via Haiti Feed): http://sflcn.com/story.php?id=9408
The comment about depletion of crucial supplies seems
incomprehensible, considering Haiti's vulnerability, until one
considers the hurricane history graphic up at WunderGround:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201021_climo.html#a_topad
Not likely to be an error: there just haven't been any within 2
degrees of Tomas' current position since 1851.
The MIMIC images at http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/marti/2010_21L/webManager/mainpage.html
from 2010-10-30 00:00 -- 2010-10-31 00:00 to 2010-11-02 00:00 --
2010-11-02 06:45 are pretty interesting: they show the fading of the
storm that devastated the eastern Caribbean islands and its current
intensification.
And on the practical aspects, this was tweeted about 10 hours ago from
Jim Cantore of the Weather Channel: "I am off to the Clinic tomorrow
for Malaria, Hepatitis A and B, Typhoid and Tetnus shots as we are
planning coverage in #Haiti for #Tomas." (He will have already had
his cholera shots as those have to be done earlier.)
Barb
-------------
Don't know if Mr. Wheelock is from that part of the US, but displaced
Southerners everywhere do miss home, even when it is in view:
http://twitpic.com/3338m8
Belba Grubb
http://www.htsstlucia.com/HTS_News_Video5.html
(Hat tip to the St. Lucia correspondent on StormCarib.com at
http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/stlucia.shtml )
Watching that, two things especially came to mind:
1. Popular wisdom about Haiti to the contrary, trees do not
necessarily help a lot in preventing landslides and flooding on hilly
terrain--they can very quickly turn into damaging and even lethal
debris. Of course, without trees, it would be worse.
2. What would the damage have been, had this been a major hurricane?
Of note, this happened near the end of the yearly wet season for St.
Lucia (roughly June through December), per the St. Lucia Met Service
at http://www.slumet.gov.lc/
Barb
Belba Grubb
000
WTNT41 KNHC 030840
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
500 AM EDT WED NOV 03 2010
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TOMAS A COUPLE
OF HOURS AGO FOUND AN ILL-DEFINED AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH NO
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AT EITHER THE 925 MB FLIGHT LEVEL OR THE
SURFACE. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...TOMAS IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. THE PERIPHERAL CLOUD PATTERN
CONTINUES TO SHOW ORGANIZATION WITH FRAGMENTED OUTER BANDS...BUT
THERE IS LITTLE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER.
THE WEAKENING OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IS DIFFICULT TO EXPLAIN....
-- From NHC 5 a.m. Forecast Discussion #21 at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/030840.shtml
They go on to propose that it might be due to mid- to upper-level
shear over the storm, and that Tomas should still strengthen into a
Category 1 storm as it approaches Hispaniola. While that might seem
like good news, as Tomas was expected to be Category 2, they also add:
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS TROUGH
LIFTING OUT AND LEAVING TOMAS BEHIND OVER THE SUBTROPICS FOR A FEW
DAYS...
REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL...
FLOODING...AND POTENTIAL MUD SLIDES OVER HAITI AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER IN THE WEEK.
Once the trough moves out, there will not be much in the way of
steering currents for a while, and Tomas or its remnants will stay
pretty much in one place, until it dissipates (after many days) or
until something else comes along to get it moving again.
What Jeff Masters yesterday called a "nightmare scenario" seems to be
becoming more likely. It isn't applicable to a tropical depression,
but yesterday at one point the NHC said tropical storm force winds
extended out to a maximum of 115 miles from the center of what was a
very disorganized and lopsided storm. Keep this in mind when viewing
the NHC five-day cone, which is designed to show only where they
expect the center to be: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/083314.shtml?5-daynl#contents
I think things to watch now are Tomas' forward speed (which is already
pretty slow at around 5 m.p.h.) and how symmetrical it remains.
Hopefully, it will speed up and be north of Hispaniola when the trough
moves out late Friday; failing that, hopefully it might be lopsided
enough to keep most of its heaviest rains over water (sounds rather
forlorn, but the island's mountains might just do a number on whatever
part of it is still over land).
Technically, first off, I don't understand the meteorological reasons
why very weak systems are sometimes not picked up by major atmospheric
steering features, but common sense tells me that you can't lift
something that tends to fall apart in your hands. The NOGAPS was
showing this scenario at least a couple days ago, and last night at
least the GFS and, per the NHC, other models, too, showed it, so it
would seem that the models did see weakening this coming. How, one
wonders.
Barb
-----------------
"Tomas may become another “two-steps-backward” moment in the march to
find reasonable solutions for the million-plus homeless Haitians.
Unfortunately Tomas will demonstrate how important it is to get the
rubble removed [well over 90% of it still remains, per a new story I
read recently...Barb], fix the land ownership issues and start
building permanent housing for the people."
-- From "Tomas and the T-Shelters" at
http://haitirewired.wired.com/profiles/blogs/tomas-and-the-tshelters .
Belba Grubb
(went down to 4 mph, now is up to 6 mph):
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/marti/2010_21L/webManager/displayGifsBy12hr_15.html
Pretty dramatic.
The 11 a.m. NHC discussion should be very interesting. Here is their
5-day forecast cone as of 8 p.m.:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/203814.shtml?5-daynl#contents
Barb
----------
"[John] Dalton was a man of regular habits. For fifty-seven years he
walked out of Manchester every day; he measured the rainfall, the
temperature—a singularly monotonous enterprise in this climate. Of all
that mass of data, nothing whatever came. But of the one searching,
almost childlike question about the weights that enter the
construction of these simple molecules—out of that came modern atomic
theory. That is the essence of science: ask an impertinent question,
and you are on the way to the pertinent answer."
-- Jacob Bronowski
Belba Grubb
hurricane going...pretty much up the Windward Passage, starting
tonight, and then *moving on* to the Bahamas. Not absolutely the ideal
resolution (a much weaker storm would be that), but it's hard to argue
that's not the perfect track, if it verifies.
Tropical winds extend as far as 115 miles out from the center, but NHC
says in their 5 a.m. discussion that rain will be the "most
significant threat" to Haiti and the DR from Tomas. In Haiti, even a
couple inches of rain can be lethal in some areas, and they do say
that isolated areas could receive as much as 15 inches.
I don't wish anything bad for the Bahamas, but I will be so glad when
this gets past Hispaniola.
Barb
Belba Grubb
tonight online, I tried Google Translate's Kreyol-to-English on some
weather updates from Haiti, and it works quite well, both in detecting
the language and in translating (or so it seems to me -- don't speak
it, but the translation made sense): http://translate.google.com
The feed, sometimes in English, other times in Kreyol, is from
http://twitter.com/jcpoulard in PaP, who also posts at
stormcarib.com . The only thing is that Twitter may go over capacity
during all this.
Barb
Belba Grubb II
flooding due to rain in Haiti. This is per a look at the latest MIMIC
images available online (
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/marti/2010_21L/webManager/displayGifsBy12hr_17.html
), which shows Haiti in the northeast quadrant of an intensifying
Category 1 hurricane, as well as some of the tweets from Haiti from
the /Miami Herald's/ Caribbean correspondent ( http://twitter.com/jacquiecharles
) which most recently mention the sea coming inland at Aux Coteaux,
several towns in the Grande Ainse (not sure where that is) and
Jeremie.
She mentions what seems to a global theme today:"In Aux Coteaux the
sea has destroyed little village. People didn't want to evacuate.
Evacuations are going now. "
Sigh.
The Turks and Caicos Islands are in line for a direct hit; earlier in
the season I read somewhere that they had not yet recovered from the
devastation caused by a major hurricane, Ike, but I don't know if this
will very bad for them.
Barb
Belba Grubb II
numbers. Wow! There will still be a lot more rain, though, and more
flooding:
http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/11/06/1911364/weve-escaped-the-worst.html
The aftermath is going to be messy, though.
Barb
Belba Grubb
because there will be no threat.
This is the current NHC satellite image showing Invest 93, which was
over Puerto Rico at that point.
http://farm2.static.flickr.com/1246/5163979610_c45d12d429_z.jpg
The yellow color indicates that NHC thinks at this point it only has
minimal chances of developing into a tropical system (the "10%" next
to the yellow circle is also a big clue!). However, had it traveled
in the more or less usual direction--west--that very easily could have
hit Hispaniola with a lot rain, even in its current state, but it is
forecast to travel north. See that spidery-looking thing roughly due
east of Chesapeake Bay? That's the very strong low that messed up
parts of the Northeast US earlier this week; it's at roughly 996 mb
now, and the banding is unusual and very interesting. The good news
is that flow around it is counterclockwise, as will all low pressure
systems in the northern hemisphere, and it's pulling Invest 93 north.
As the system is unlikely to develop, Bermuda is hardly looking at
another Igor here.
Yay!
Barb
Belba Grubb
aren't any possibilities out there presently.
Some of the models are showing something developing in the
southwestern Caribbean in the coming week. It's too far out in time
to be certain of anything, but while the NOGAPS shows it staying close
to home, the GFS and ECMWF show it heading for Nicaragua, and possibly
even the Yucatan at the very end of the period. Errors are so very
great at that point in the models, but there is enough heat in the
Caribbean to support development; don't know about wind shear or
moisture then. The Gulf is rather cooler now and not very TC
friendly, fortunately, but this could mean some more heavy rains and
flooding in Central America/southern Mexico.
Barb
--------------
Happy 10th Anniversary, "Weekly Volcanic Activity Reports"!
http://www.volcano.si.edu/reports/usgs/10_year/index.cfm
(hat tip to the /Volcanism/ and /Eruptions/ blogs)