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Before the storm the storm
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Weatherlawyer
Jul 2, 2012, 7:14:38 AM7/2/12
to
The model run for Antarctica shows a confluence of cyclonic activity
on the Peninsula this morning (2 July 2012.)
As this slips around the continent, a stream of precipitatious weather
preceding it joins with and pushes south from East Africa and runs
directly into the continent at 60 degrees east.
This is a severish earthquake, probably of the magnitudes we have been
experiencing related to the tropic storms now ceased.
Paying no attention to the time frames the computers used throw out,
just look at the NEIC chart listing for the next Mag 6 or so quake;
there you will get your start date for the next tropical weather we
are to expect.
Immediately on the chart following this quake a new set up I am
tempted to call "clag" (for the moment) is smeared along the eastern
portion of Antarctica.
This is a region of similar pressure, falling from 1016 to whatever,
from the outside in. This is from Friday on but the time-scale is
irrelevant compared to the signal given. (I am giving the picture as
seen with the dates as shown so you can look at it yourself.)
What is interesting is that from the moment it is set up it
intensifies the cyclone over the ice shelf at 180 to 140 west. And
when that happens, the isobars stand away from the continent
everywhere; there is no cyclone causing firm adherence.
Broadly speaking, there is a "col" of about 984mb from the Antarctic
Peninsula to the place about 60 degrees east where the signal for the
earthquake came from.
Outside this region, the cyclones seem to be barred from entering the
storm core that is ore normal here.
Further around the continent the isobars come closer to shore and all
run parallel as much as they can.
This requires that the cyclones on the shore die away. Instead of
climbing the ice and crossing the land, the meld into a giant glob of
similar pressure surrounding the continent.
Thursday/Friday is the day after the next spell starts, the end of the
thundery stuff but not the end to the wet:
19 Jun 15:02
27 Jun 03:30
3 Jul 18:52
> http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/phase/phase2001gmt.html
There is more but I think I have said a mouthful for the moment.
The last time I tried posting images to my blog the DoS prevented me
but I will attempt to set it all out again today.
on the Peninsula this morning (2 July 2012.)
As this slips around the continent, a stream of precipitatious weather
preceding it joins with and pushes south from East Africa and runs
directly into the continent at 60 degrees east.
This is a severish earthquake, probably of the magnitudes we have been
experiencing related to the tropic storms now ceased.
Paying no attention to the time frames the computers used throw out,
just look at the NEIC chart listing for the next Mag 6 or so quake;
there you will get your start date for the next tropical weather we
are to expect.
Immediately on the chart following this quake a new set up I am
tempted to call "clag" (for the moment) is smeared along the eastern
portion of Antarctica.
This is a region of similar pressure, falling from 1016 to whatever,
from the outside in. This is from Friday on but the time-scale is
irrelevant compared to the signal given. (I am giving the picture as
seen with the dates as shown so you can look at it yourself.)
What is interesting is that from the moment it is set up it
intensifies the cyclone over the ice shelf at 180 to 140 west. And
when that happens, the isobars stand away from the continent
everywhere; there is no cyclone causing firm adherence.
Broadly speaking, there is a "col" of about 984mb from the Antarctic
Peninsula to the place about 60 degrees east where the signal for the
earthquake came from.
Outside this region, the cyclones seem to be barred from entering the
storm core that is ore normal here.
Further around the continent the isobars come closer to shore and all
run parallel as much as they can.
This requires that the cyclones on the shore die away. Instead of
climbing the ice and crossing the land, the meld into a giant glob of
similar pressure surrounding the continent.
Thursday/Friday is the day after the next spell starts, the end of the
thundery stuff but not the end to the wet:
19 Jun 15:02
27 Jun 03:30
3 Jul 18:52
> http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/phase/phase2001gmt.html
There is more but I think I have said a mouthful for the moment.
The last time I tried posting images to my blog the DoS prevented me
but I will attempt to set it all out again today.
Weatherlawyer
Jul 2, 2012, 8:25:55 AM7/2/12
to
On Jul 2, 12:14 pm, Weatherlawyer <weatherlaw...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> There is more but I think I have said a mouthful for the moment.
>
> The last time I tried posting images to my blog the DoS prevented me
> but I will attempt to set it all out again today.
>
http://my.opera.com/Weatherlawyer/blog/2012/07/02/before-thge-storm-the-storm
>
> There is more but I think I have said a mouthful for the moment.
>
> The last time I tried posting images to my blog the DoS prevented me
> but I will attempt to set it all out again today.
>
>
http://my.opera.com/Weatherlawyer/albums/showpic.dml?album=12136172&picture=158132082
Weatherlawyer
Jul 3, 2012, 5:24:36 AM7/3/12
to
> The model run for Antarctica shows a confluence of cyclonic activity
> on the Peninsula this morning (2 July 2012.)
>
> As this slips around the continent, a stream of precipitatious weather
> preceding it joins with and pushes south from East Africa and runs
> directly into the continent at 60 degrees east.
This is the situation on today's BOM chart too. Of course it is still
> on the Peninsula this morning (2 July 2012.)
>
> As this slips around the continent, a stream of precipitatious weather
> preceding it joins with and pushes south from East Africa and runs
> directly into the continent at 60 degrees east.
too ealy to say but these things seldom follow through two model runs
with 24 hour separation unless they intend to be important.
Even so tomorrow's (or the following day) will be decisive.
> This is a severish earthquake, probably of the magnitudes we have been
> experiencing related to the tropic storms now ceased.
>
> Paying no attention to the time frames the computers used throw out,
> just look at the NEIC chart listing for the next Mag 6 or so quake;
> there you will get your start date for the next tropical weather we
> are to expect.
appear to change somewhat this afternoon without going missing
altogether.
> Immediately on the chart following this quake a new set up I am
> tempted to call "clag" (for the moment) is smeared along the eastern
> portion of Antarctica.
>
> This is a region of similar pressure, falling from 1016 to whatever,
> from the outside in. This is from Friday on but the time-scale is
> irrelevant compared to the signal given. (I am giving the picture as
> seen with the dates as shown so you can look at it yourself.)
>
> What is interesting is that from the moment it is set up it
> intensifies the cyclone over the ice shelf at 180 to 140 west. And
> when that happens, the isobars stand away from the continent
> everywhere; there is no cyclone causing firm adherence.
>
> Broadly speaking, there is a "col" of about 984mb from the Antarctic
> Peninsula to the place about 60 degrees east where the signal for the
> earthquake came from.
the Pole on Wednesday 06:00.
That is an interesting signal.
I don't know the code (yet) but it is signalling until noon Friday.
> Outside this region, the cyclones seem to be barred
> from entering the storm core
>
> Further around the continent the isobars come closer to shore
> and all run parallel -as much as they can.
> Further around the continent the isobars come closer to shore
>
> Thursday/Friday is the day after the next spell starts, the end of the
> thundery stuff but not the end to the wet:
> 19 Jun 15:02
> 27 Jun 03:30
> 3 Jul 18:52
The next spell is actually a wetter version of this week's:
> Thursday/Friday is the day after the next spell starts, the end of the
> thundery stuff but not the end to the wet:
> 19 Jun 15:02
> 27 Jun 03:30
> 3 Jul 18:52
3 Jul Tuesday@ 18:52
11 Jul Wednesday @ 01:48 and
19 Jul Thursday @ 04:24 is a volcanic one.
Thus, following on from two very wet spells (IF!!) and a previous very
wet couple of spells (which they most certainly were in some places)
things could become very interesting.
> >http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/phase/phase2001gmt.html
>
> There is more.
The Atlantic chart is showing a marked change after today. It might
even amount to a blocking high. Being the start of a spell today
(Tuesday 3rd) and having the runs taken before it set in, it will take
a day or so to clarify.
With a double High in the North Atlantic, there could be a lot of
tornadoes in the USA. At present the chart just shows them as storms
if at all?
Not sure.
I'll explain it on the blog if I can.
If the High stays focussed on the Greenland-Iceland region, it will
change the character of the spell from wet to dry (in Britain. YMWV.)
For those whose interest in the weather is not pan-galactic like mine,
there has been a severe heatwave in the USA and at the same time
flooding in North America.
Other places suffering too no doubt.
However, so far there have been surprisingly few tornadoes considering
the conditions. Compare:
>
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/120624_rpts.html
with
>
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/120629_rpts.html
and
>
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/120701_rpts.html
for instance.
(Not that tornadoes couldn't have made up for things in Canada or even
Mexico -though Mexico is more likely earlier in the year when the
solar declination is lower.)
> http://my.opera.com/Weatherlawyer/blog/2012/07/02/before-the-storm-the-storm
>
> http://my.opera.com/Weatherlawyer/albums/showpic.dml?album=12136172&p....
Weatherlawyer
Jul 3, 2012, 5:34:20 PM7/3/12
to
Bell, book and candle on that spell:
2012/07/03
6.2 M. OFF WEST COAST OF THE NORTH ISLAND, N.Z.
4.6 M. FIJI REGION
A large earthquake (or a pair that makes up the difference) always
sees a spell out.
And for some inexplicable reason there follows in the same breath a
smaller one (usually a smaller one, though they can mount up or turn
out to be the larger) in the region of Fiji, Tonga or Tuvalu.
As here:
> http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.php
So now we wait and see what happens with the weather.
I've heard it might be in Canada.
2012/07/03
6.2 M. OFF WEST COAST OF THE NORTH ISLAND, N.Z.
4.6 M. FIJI REGION
A large earthquake (or a pair that makes up the difference) always
sees a spell out.
And for some inexplicable reason there follows in the same breath a
smaller one (usually a smaller one, though they can mount up or turn
out to be the larger) in the region of Fiji, Tonga or Tuvalu.
As here:
> http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_all.php
So now we wait and see what happens with the weather.
I've heard it might be in Canada.
Weatherlawyer
Jul 4, 2012, 5:10:09 PM7/4/12
to
> just look at the NEIC chart listing for the next Mag 6 or so quake;
> there you will get your start date for the next tropical weather we
> are to expect.
Here we go:
> there you will get your start date for the next tropical weather we
> are to expect.
04E. N.E. Pacific.
4 Jul, 2012. TD 30 kts. 13.5 N. 107.8 W.
5 Jul, 2012. TS 40 kts. 14.5 N. 111.3 W.
http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
Note too that there is usually a lull in earthquakes around the start
of these things (made up for at the end of them.)
This looks like the crack o' doom:
6.2 M. 2012/07/03 OFF NORTH ISLAND, N.Z.
Personally I'd rather suspect this one, for the moment:
5.1 M. 2012/07/04. KERMADEC ISLANDS, NEW ZEALAND
Time will tell (so will records I'm sure, if someone wants to take the
time to look. How hard can it be, I wonder, to find the times and
dates of the start of tropical storms and the records of earthquakes
for Kermadec and/or New Zealand generally?)
Maybe I shouldn't leave it to the intrepid cod-sheep on here.
But I will.
Weatherlawyer
Jul 6, 2012, 2:09:14 AM7/6/12
to
This would beggar belief but that won't stop me putting it out there:
2012/07/06. @ 02:28 (no idea if the exact time is important but it
need to be checked out.)
6.3 M. -14.7. S. 167.4 E. Vanuatu; is almost the plumb centre of the
planet's obverse.
Some time last evening, the storm qualified for a name and today it
becomes a Cat 1.
Belay that!
> http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/e_pacific/2012/index.php
4. Tropical Storm DANIEL 04-06 July 55 knots. Active.
5. Tropical Storm Four 04-05 July 50 knots. Active.
So before a storm we get a quake.
Who would ever have guessed?
(Besides me, I mean.)
BTW Adam, you could update your Storm Risk page more often. That
nearly caught me out. Tuba mirum Tuba cum ad te manus meas.
2012/07/06. @ 02:28 (no idea if the exact time is important but it
need to be checked out.)
6.3 M. -14.7. S. 167.4 E. Vanuatu; is almost the plumb centre of the
planet's obverse.
Some time last evening, the storm qualified for a name and today it
becomes a Cat 1.
Belay that!
> http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/e_pacific/2012/index.php
4. Tropical Storm DANIEL 04-06 July 55 knots. Active.
5. Tropical Storm Four 04-05 July 50 knots. Active.
So before a storm we get a quake.
Who would ever have guessed?
(Besides me, I mean.)
BTW Adam, you could update your Storm Risk page more often. That
nearly caught me out. Tuba mirum Tuba cum ad te manus meas.
Weatherlawyer
Jul 6, 2012, 3:10:09 AM7/6/12
to
On Jul 2, 12:14 pm, Weatherlawyer <weatherlaw...@gmail.com> wrote:
> The model run for Antarctica shows a confluence of cyclonic activity
> on the Peninsula this morning (2 July 2012.)
>
> As this slips around the continent, a stream of precipitatious weather
> preceding it joins with and pushes south from East Africa and runs
> directly into the continent at 60 degrees east.
>
> This is a severish earthquake, probably of the magnitudes we have been
> experiencing related to the tropic storms now ceased.
>
> Paying no attention to the time frames the computers used throw out,
> just look at the NEIC chart listing for the next Mag 6 or so quake;
> there you will get your start date for the next tropical weather we
> are to expect.
It is quite startling that the precipitation scheduled was still on
> on the Peninsula this morning (2 July 2012.)
>
> As this slips around the continent, a stream of precipitatious weather
> preceding it joins with and pushes south from East Africa and runs
> directly into the continent at 60 degrees east.
>
> This is a severish earthquake, probably of the magnitudes we have been
> experiencing related to the tropic storms now ceased.
>
> Paying no attention to the time frames the computers used throw out,
> just look at the NEIC chart listing for the next Mag 6 or so quake;
> there you will get your start date for the next tropical weather we
> are to expect.
the charts all the way through for the last few days.
I certainly did not expect that.
Furthermore, it appears that the phenomenon is associated with a
series not tied to single quakes.
Why it should have appeared to me that quakes are nor entirely a
series set I can't think. I certainly had no misconceptions about
plate theory and stupid pluminology or any of that daftological
iniquity.
After all once you get the sense of their tie-in with meteorology not
even the sky is a limit.
Furthermore. That stuff I was calling "clag", ribbons of isobars
around the continent, now extend ALL the way around once the system
settles out of that African input later today or early tomorrow.
So it seems that following a major event such as a massive derecho,
all systems change.
Isn't it amazing what you can see if you look?
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