Chile's Emergency Bureau's Web site is http://www.onemi.cl/ (Spanish
language, but there are free online translators around that will
translate this page and any links, http://babelfish.altavista.com, for
instance) and they have updates about this at the top center. Most
recent one is from yesterday; expanding on the AP news story, they are
concerned about the salmon fisheries that are in the zone, and the
Chilean Navy is working with the companies to plan emergency
evacuation when and if needed. Also, the scientists are relocating
their equipment closer to the zone. They do expect stronger
earthquakes than those that have occurred so far, but apparently they
feel that because it is a relatively small amount of magma coming up,
the eventual eruption should not be powerful enough to threaten the
two closest communities, with a total population of some 35,000. I
wonder about that a bit -- wouldn't the size of the magma determine
the length of the eventual eruption rather than its intensity? The
intensity, explosiveness, and so forth would depend on the chemical
makeup of this particular batch of magma, and there's no way they can
tell that now, is there?
Barb
-------
Education is the period during which you are being instructed by
somebody you do not know, about something you do not want to know
-- G. K. Chesterton
There was a series of small shocks on the 27th in Puerto Rico, all
within one hour of each other:
2.5 2007/01/27 01:26 18 -66 Puerto Rico
2.7 2007/01/27 01:18 19 -65 Puerto Rico
2.8 2007/01/27 01:14 19 -65 Puerto Rico
2.5 2007/01/27 01:10 19 -65 Puerto Rico
2.6 2007/01/27 01:09 19 -65 Puerto Rico
2.7 2007/01/27 01:08 19 -65 Puerto Rico
2.8 2007/01/27 00:51 19 -65 Puerto Rico
2.5 2007/01/27 00:50 19 -65 Puerto Rico
2.8 2007/01/27 00:48 19 -65 Puerto Rico
3.5 2007/01/27 00:47 19 -65 Puerto Rico
2.5 2007/01/27 00:45 19 -65 Puerto Rico
2.9 2007/01/27 00:44 19 -65 Puerto Rico
Obviously no swarms would appear with small quakes in Chile on that
site (NEIC) but I couldn't find the 4+ Mag one either. You will note
that there were a couple of extra tropical storms about that date.
One of them (at least) will be found to have occurred within an
harmonic distance of a mutliple of some 35 degrees of longitude from
the region.
(From the regions involved may encompass all anomalies.)
The MetO will post data on these storms shortly before the end of
February. Their alacrity is matched only by their accuracy though.* So
be prepared for disappointment.
*Actually this concerns botched updates to their servers, with past
data scrambled or misplaced in the archives. Most such UK government
departments are covered by the Official Secrets Act; so very little
information about cockups is ever discussed.
Guess we were lucky the news about Chile and Puerto Rico being in the
same tectonic zone leaked out. Who would have suspected it.
The University of Chile may have its "sismógrafos" online somewhere,
but I couldn't find them with a quick search today. The largest of
the swarm did make the NEIC list: http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/bulletin/
neic_xxce.html We'll probably be seeing more of these at NEIC as the
magma gets closer to the surface. I wonder how strong those will be.
Meanwhile, in nearby Aysén and Chacabuco, people are scared:
http://www.diarioaysen.cl/noticias1.php?id=77 Good thing it's
midsummer out there, and they won't suffer from winter cold outdoors,
but that far south, it's never going to be really balmy, and
hypothermia on the rainier, more windy days is not out of the
question: http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/85862.html
Tough situation. And when the magma does break through, for the
reasons I mentioned above, I wonder if the eruption will be as small
as they expect.
Barb
--------
There is many a rich stone laid up in the bowels of the earth, many a
fair pearl laid up in the bosom of the sea, that never was seen, nor
never shall be.
-- Joseph Hall, Contemplations. Book iv. The veil of Moses.
I just found a list of swarms for volcanoes. A problematic data sheet
as the world of volcanoes isn't closely covered the way that
earthquakes in general are:
http://kiska.giseis.alaska.edu/dbases/swarmcat/v_table.html
Obviously there is a lot more need close up inspection of individual
sites in watching vulcanicity whereas looking as seismic waves can be
done from any place on the planet so long as there is access to what
other sites are reading.
> Meanwhile, in nearby Aysén and Chacabuco, people are scared:
> http://www.diarioaysen.cl/noticias1.php?id=77 Good thing it's
> midsummer out there, and they won't suffer from winter cold outdoors,
> but that far south, it's never going to be really balmy, and
> hypothermia on the rainier, more windy days is not out of the
> question: http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/85862.html
There is no alleviating justifiable fears. Keeping a crowd safe is
something that has its limits in such situations though. They tend to
drift away "as men steal in who are ashamed when they flee from
battle."
> Tough situation. And when the magma does break through, for the
> reasons I mentioned above, I wonder if the eruption will be as small
> as they expect.
Isn't there some data somewhere that indicates that subterranean
events of all sorts seem to be linked to microbial activity? It is
rewriting the text books again apparently. I recall a TV programme
showing that the caverns in a desert somewhere have probably been
excavated by them as there is little chance it was caused by water
eroding it.
It's also more than likely true that the volcanic activity on earth is
liable to be caused by microbes. Just a wild guess of course. Why not
though? Suppose there are some particularly attracted to suphur or
it's ores.
It might even be a requirement for volcanoes as far as we know.
There is precious little actually known that isn't blind guesswork and
stuff based on a network of unproven theories.
What I have noticed is that with a negative NAO (that is, when there
is very little difference in the pressure of Lows and Highs in the
Atlantic) the incidence of volcanic activity increases earthwide.
Well that's about all the input I can give you. No doubt the trolls
and certified scum on here will do their best to dissuade you of it.
You can check my ideas with the stats yourself though from the
MetOffice site. It hosts the dates and relative strengths of all the
tropical cyclones from the mid nineteen nineties on.
Beware of some of the dates as there has been a bit of a scramble in
here:
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tropicalcyclone/verification.html
There is one more thing. If the staff of life for volcanoes is
microbial activity, then the life of the "staff" is also extra
terrestrial.
> Isn't there some data somewhere that indicates that subterranean
> events of all sorts seem to be linked to microbial activity? It is
> rewriting the text books again apparently. I recall a TV programme
> showing that the caverns in a desert somewhere have probably been
> excavated by them as there is little chance it was caused by water
> eroding it.
No. Not microbial activity alone. Even microbes need water to live.
>
> It's also more than likely true that the volcanic activity on earth is
> liable to be caused by microbes. Just a wild guess of course. Why not
> though? Suppose there are some particularly attracted to sulphur or
> it's ores.
That is a scary thought. Microbes able to survive lava baths.
Chile's seismological survey: http://ssn.dgf.uchile.cl/home/
Chilean page on the 1/23 Aysen quake (NEIC link to same quake in
earlier post): http://ssn.dgf.uchile.cl/cgi-bin/sensible.pl?oid=2036908&yr=2007&mo=1&da=23
They give it a 5.2 magnitude, but on the NEIC list it's a 5.0 (in the
AP report quoted earlier and I think also this morning, it was still a
4-point-something, so this is still being examined closely).
I have read, in various pages accessible through those two sites
above, that the Chilean seismometer system is on the Net, but it may
be a private-access network. I couldn't find any webicorders or
helicorders.
Barb
----------
"Neither modern science nor ancient religion believes in complete
free thought. Theology rebukes certain thoughts by calling
them blasphemous. Science rebukes certain thoughts by calling
them morbid."
-- G. K. Chesterton, "Orthodoxy"
Not quite.
Microbes (and not necessarily microbes too neither) able to CAUSE
lava. Of course it is one thing to set the process in motion it is
another thing entirely to be able to survive the cataclysm. But some
microbes do exist in very hot, very poisonous situations.
I am not saying that it is what I believe. Just that the impossible to
comprehend should not be ruled out.
Consider the sea sponge. Able to recompose itself after being put
through a blender, a couple of different species put in together can
sort themselves out.
At least that is what I heard was the correct answer to such a strange
set of laws of creation discussed on a quiz show recently.
Other life forms have survived blasting with X-rays and cooking in
microwave ovens. Or so I have been led to believe. I bet it took a lot
of convincing to get the backing for nuclear research in the early
'40's. The concept was so alien then but we take it for granted now
even though it is all still very much a secretive thing.
And how about en vitro babies? Frozen cells and all that? Cloned
sheep... our forefathers would call us liars. And if the bible is
correct there is nothing new under the sun.
Which is hardest to believe?
Are there simpler unbelievable examples in our lives that we can
examine?
That there are weapons of mass destruction in Iraq for instance?
Or that Saddam Hussein posed a real threat to world peace?
Who really is the kook and who are the more circumspect of us?
> You are the kook, stilling thinking that your local weather is the
> cause of equakes across the globe.
That's the most entertaining part - that there's something uniquely special
ABOUT THE WEATHER WHERE HE HAPPENS TO BE that is connected with global
earthquakes.
Reminds me of the classic sci.geo.earthquakes kook from the late 90s that
was ABSOLUTELY convinced that there was a strong connection with earthquakes
all over the place and - I kid you not - whether there was dew on his lawn
in the morning.
And I still wonder, what has the most effect in this particular area
and situation, on how strong the eruption will be: the amount of
available magma or its chemical make-up.
Barb
----------
" Espero que el Volcán Osorno erupte.
Quiero verlo después,
ver la nieve derretirse.
A 2660 metros, es demasiado alto."
-- Zgot Pen, from "En el bus hacia Ensenada" at http://www.lechantier.com/zkotpen/versos.htm
> Any idea what sort of rock the magma is pushing through? Passing
> through limestone might make the lava more fluid or explosive. Mt
> Etna once had this effect IIRC, a large amount of limestone was eaten
> by the magma, the result was explosive and more fluid lava, than
> prior to the ingestion of the limestone.
Perhaps there are geologic maps of seismic zone XI online somewhere,
but I wonder if they would be helpful regarding what's it's like 6
miles down. It's on the leading edge of a continental plate (I think;
haven't thought of this in years -- at any rate, a continent is near
the edge of the plate). How that region compares to the crust in the
region of Mt. Etna, I couldn't say. Most likely, though, there is
plenty of water and silica in any magma collection formed in the Aysen/
Capabuco area, no?
And we don't know the size of the magma that's rising -- perhaps it's
very, very small. Still...I'm not sure which can have more effect on
the inevitable eruption in this lovely tourist and commercial fishing
area here, chemistry or quantity.
Barb
----------
"If the mountain will not come to Mohammed, Mohammed must go to the
mountain."
-- Old saying that can probably result in a fatwa being issued against
the user these days ;-)
"If the mountain comes to you, run away: it's probably a landslide."
-- Portuguese and/or Brazilian proverb posted at Geoblogia in 2003
(http://geoblogia.blogspot.com/2003_11_01_archive.html)
At 6.2 miles down, it doesn't seem that the magma is exactly surging
upward at this moment, fortunately. They said 6 miles down in the
news report last week.
In Aysen and Chacabuco, today's quake was a VI Mercalli, per ONEMI and
was felt at other sites, including Mercalli V at a town in the
northern part of the same seismic zone (XI) and Mercalli IV at a town
in zone X (map of Chilean seismic zones: http://ssn.dgf.uchile.cl/cgi-
bin/sisnac.pl?Z=13&P=200702&T=3&id_tipo=0 ) .
Barb
----------
"The big thing is not to climb Fuji-san once; it is to climb it twice
in one life."
-- Japanese proverb, unskillfully translated from the Spanish found at
http://www.temakel.com/geosafuji.htm
I wish I could find an article on it that I was certain had good scientific
info and wasn't some sort of bad translation from Spanish.
Usually the Smithsonian volcano listserv will eventually send out an e-mail
about something like this but I've seen nothing.
Augustine one of the area's most active volcanoes, a large
stratovolcano located in the southern Cook Inlet, about 290 km
southwest of Anchorage, Alaska, has been quiet since 1986. Activity
began last May with an increase in the number of earthquakes followed
by a slow, steady inflation of the volcano, which is being recorded in
detail by the EarthScope Plate Boundary Observatory GPS stations that
are permanently installed on the island.
Movement of Augustine accelerated through December, with the
EarthScope GPS station located closest to the summit moving about 5 cm
in a single day.
"Researchers usually make measurements once a year to record movement
of a volcano," . "The odds of capturing the inflation signal from
Augustine within the short timeframe that it occurred would have been
slim without the permanent EarthScope stations on the surface."
After inflating for several months, Augustine began erupting in mid-
January with a series of explosions. Ash was sent so high into the
atmosphere that jets had to alter their routes as they traveled to and
from Asia.
http://www.richard-seaman.com/Wallpaper/Aircraft/Displays/DutchF16DroppingFlares.jpg
The activity on Augustine may only be beginning. In the past Augustine
has erupted in two phases, an explosive phase and a dome building
phase.
For several months, data from the EarthScope stations showed a steady
inflation as magma intruding under the volcano. At the end of January,
as more magma erupted, the data has started showing that the volcano
is deflating. As the eruption continues, the GPS data will continue to
track the volcano's "breathing" as it shrinks and swells due to magma
movement.
Some of the stations near the summit have been damaged by the ash and
force of the eruptions. The data from this frontier continues to be
invaluable, even after the stations are gone. "You have to think of
them as space probes, hoping they transmit data until last moment."
"Everyone is looking for patterns in the data.
This quality of data is still new to researchers. Research with the
data will continue long after Augustine is quite again. It will lead
to new discoveries about volcanic processes and to better predictions."
If you had just cut-and-pasted the whole article, or deleted a few parts
here and there, it might have at least appeared that you just neglected to
include the attribution, but your re-wording, and re-phrasing present the
appearance, at least, that an attempt was made to thwart searches intended
to detect plagiarism. And, oops! you provided quotations from Jackson and
Van der Vink, somewhat altered, without mentioning them . . .
I'm sure that that sort of thing is as frowned upon on your side of the pond
as it is here.
Michael Williams
Arroyo Grande, CA USA
Nope.
Over here we have a sense of humour.
Top post now; well that is definitely non-U. As is quoting all the
text from previous quotes.
As it happens I just forgot to post the link to the original article -
which among many others on the OP subject, is quite readily found with
a search engine.
You sad, thin skinned barsturd.
Just as I suspected. Your (necessary) failure to provide any explanation for
your re-wording of the original, puts the lie to your denial.
Plagiarism is not a subject of humor there or here.
Don't forget the Palmdale Buldge.
Just as I suspected you are a fuckwit
> Plagiarism is not a subject of humor there or here.
It may not provide any basis for humour wherever you are but I feel
sure that in the real world a substantial number of cracks and jokes
have been invented after some clever humourless saying or another,
that can even be found in the annals of USAnal humor.
Get the fuck off out off here, idiot.
>Get the fuck off out off here, idiot.
Miss Manners believes this is slightly rude.
____
When Henry Adams wrote "The Education of Henry Adams," he
gave thirty pages out of five hundred to his schooling.
-- Jacques Barzun, "Teacher in America" (1944)
Thanks for pointing that out, David. A whack on the forehead with Politeness
Man's iron hanky is callef for, for this Johny-come-lately. And, in addition
to having execrable manners, he also regularly massacres the English
language. Does he really manage to ply his trade as a lawyer with such
handicaps?
Michael Williams
Arroyo Grande, CA USA
> ____
It could be a little too soon. It's all still just happening, and
what papers and articles there may be on it have yet to be written and/
or published, perhaps. I hope the "let's not scare the tourists"
syndrome isn't a factor here.
The Chilean seismologists and volcanologists were still searching out
the best location for their instruments this past week. If I
understood the daily paper, they were starting to focus their
attention more on an area called Playa Blanca at the end of the week.
The Chilean people seem fairly knowledgeable about these things, as
they should be, having had so much "hands-on" experience, so to speak,
with both earthquakes and volcanoes. Thus, the "Aysen Daily" may be
helpful, though it's printed a day after the event. The Monday
edition is up: http://www.diarioaysen.cl/noticias1.php?id=87 Besides
reporting that the weekend quake caused a landslide and damaged a
salmon fishing operation, it gives names of some of the scientists
involved. A search on those names may help you find more scientific
articles, and perhaps in English-language publications, too.
As for general information, the population in the area is still
panicked, and I'm not sure if, per the current article, they just told
this one salmon operation to leave or all of them. Between that and
the inevitable effect on the tourist trade, a lot of local damage is
already occurring even before the magma breaks through the surface. :-
(
If my Spanish is accurate (it's really fragmentary and very basic at
best), Monday's article in the "Aysen Daily" ends with quite an
exposition by the local senator, who is currently up in Santiago
recovering from heart surgery. He speaks of "parasitic volcanic
cones" and so forth, and about things he has been instructing the
Emergency Office to do. I wonder how much of what he says is
scientifically based; he doesn't quote sources, and politicians are
alike the world over, especially when the voter base is scared by
something.
Another almost real-time source of basic information is ONEMI, in its
blue "news service" box in the middle of the home page: http://www.onemi.cl/
. Just now they're still covering the two big and fatal fires that
happened over the weekend, but they are quick to put up information
when something major happens in the Aysen/Chacabuco area, or any other
seismic area.
Barb
----------
Se escucha un rugido profundo
en la inmensidad del valle,
despertando asustados
a todos sus habitantes.
Despiertas con fuerza de tu sopor
rugiendo con rabia, ira y dolor
desde el fondo de tu corazón....
>From "Volcano," by Yasmina at Virtual Poetry, http://poesiavirtual.com/
index.php?ir=ver_poema.php&pid=36398&p=YASMINA&t=VOLCAN
Not at all.
He is in fact a mole undermining the powers of lawyers everywhere and
is not in any fact in any way whatsoever a lawyer of any sort except
in that he promulgates the ancient ways and lores of yore and seeks to
reestablish them in the court of human needs.
Be it understood that the party of he first part is in no way
alienating his once and future right to be called to the bar that one
accepts as the attainment of one's majority in his country.
To wit the Princess and the Potter around the corner, although he may
be found from time to time in The Swan in Stone.
Hmmmm.. dew on British lawns occurs in similar weather patterns to
frosts and mists. Pity I was ignoring your posts and failed to notice
this little gem.
There again, it is a pity you are so small minded. But then, if the
world wasn't full of petty fogging people, what would we talk about in
our tea breaks?
Here, for the more discerning, is something I prepared earlier:
Reappraising these two spells and following the tracks of the cyclones
around Madagascar, I can see that the lunar phases (17th Feb 16:14 and
24th Feb 07:56
deliver virtually the same weather.
If -as it seems, the first one is quintessentially a spell for misty
weather in England <?>and tropical cyclones in the SW Indian Ocean</?>
Not that I am saying the weather in the SW Indian Ocean has to be
maintained. Although it does seem we in the UK will continue to have a
drizzly wet spell with this spell (24th Feb on) that I would have once
unhesitatingly considered a dry cyclonic spell for Great Britain.
It will be interesting -maybe even revealing, to see if the tropical
cyclones (if any) that are produced in it, will be in the same place
or even in the same basin.
One thing that is for sure is that the number of small earthquake
swarms that accompany them, will not decrease. Maybe they too will
move house?
I saved this missal for future reference merely because you seem to
think asking Usenet to dispose of it after so many days would suit
you. You are a flaming troll who abuses posters rather than makes any
serious attempt to examine anything genuine posters might be saying.
What you will have to do now is have the rest of your trash trashed so
that the more discerning can't actually get to see for themselves this
is so. Difficult where the residue of your detritus is contained in
other people's posts.
As for me whatever I said is readily available for inspection, warts
and all.
Ya know how I spotted this guy as a kook when he first showed up?
He calls himself WeatherLawyer..
Yes EVERYONE KNOWS that the weather has nothing to do with earthquakes,
but............
Everyone HATES lawyers....
Proclaiming yourself as any kind of lawyer wins you about as many supporters
as someone running around Haifa screaming they were in the SS.
I'll bet he's still living at his mommy's house today, like he was then....
BTW: The garnets are Blood red, deep, deep, red, and faceted.
Cheers!
DC
CICFL
CAT YEAR MO DA ORIG TIME LAT LONG DEP MAGNITUDE IEFM
DTSVNWG DIST
NFPO km
TFS
PDE-Q 2007 01 23 204016.30 -45.31 -72.19 32 5.20 MLGUC
5F . .......
PDE-Q 2007 01 31 080614.69 -45.19 -72.33 15 4.80 mb
GS .. . .......
PDE-Q 2007 02 03 090015.74 -45.26 -72.20 10 5.10 mb
GS .. . .......
PDE-Q 2007 02 10 060302.80 -42.90 -71.46 157 5.00 mb GS
3F . .......
PDE-Q 2007 02 23 195548.72 -45.29 -72.16 25 5.60 mb GS
6F . .......
MUCH REGARDS FROM THE NAZCA PLATE SUBDUCTION ZONE...