8.2 Southern Indonesia
Skywise
continuing to move southward as expected.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2007hear.php
hmmmm....I suppose the eclipse predicters are gonna be all over
this one like flies on $#!^.
Brian
--
http://www.skywise711.com - Lasers, Seismology, Astronomy, Skepticism
Seismic FAQ: http://www.skywise711.com/SeismicFAQ/SeismicFAQ.html
Quake "predictions": http://www.skywise711.com/quakes/EQDB/index.html
Sed quis custodiet ipsos Custodes?
rick++
On average there is one per year.
rick++
There was lots of talk after the Andeman quake, but I dont how much
is operational. A number of people were working on
"first 30 second" magnitude estimation algorithms. They arent as
accurate,
a Mw inversion, but you dont have to wait 75 minutes for enough data.
This quake is also "just-in-time" for the fall AGU meeting,
the worlds largest seismology meeting of the year.
Abstract due date has passed, but they create special
sessions if something geophysically significant happens.
Belba Grubb
end - what a wild ride they are having. After these large
aftershocks, World Vision reports that authorities are saying scores
are injured and the toll could rise, but that the phone lines are
intact and therefore the authorities should have a pretty good idea of
the impact right now. I haven't read anything one way or the other
about further tsunamis.
Barb
Belba Grubb
right now), including two in the 7 range and a 6.0, I wonder if this
is having or can be expected to have any effect on local volcanism.
Barb
----------
"Baseball, it is said, is only a game. True. And the Grand Canyon is
only a hole in Arizona. Not all holes, or games, are created equal."
-- George Will
"The region is of course, altogether valueless. It can be approached
only from the South, and after entering it there is nothing to do but
leave. Ours has been the first, and will doubtless be the last, party
of whites to visit this profitless locality. It seems intended by
nature that the Colorado river, along with the greater portion of its
lonely and majestic way, shall be forever unvisited and undisturbed."
-- Lt. Joseph Christmas Ives, quoted at http://www.worldtalks.co.uk/quotes.htm
Weatherlawyer
> This is probably a very dumb question, but with 20 aftershocks (as of
> right now), including two in the 7 range and a 6.0, I wonder if this
> is having or can be expected to have any effect on local volcanism.
Strap me but I was thinking I could hear a fat lady singing:
7.1 2007/09/13 03:35 Kepulauan Mentawai Region, Indonesia
5.5 2007/09/13 02:51 Kepulauan Mentawai Region, Indonesia
5.9 2007/09/13 02:30 Kepulauan Mentawai Region, Indonesia
5.0 2007/09/13 01:55 Southern Sumatra Indonesia
5.2 2007/09/13 01:49 Kepulauan Mentawai Region, Indonesia
5.2 2007/09/13 01:38 Kepulauan Mentawai Region, Indonesia
5.8 2007/09/13 01:26 Kepulauan Mentawai Region, Indonesia
7.8 2007/09/12 23:49 Kepulauan Mentawai Region, Indonesia
Weather forecasts over here are getting in tune with the music of the
spheres and all that, what?
Mists on them though, interestingly enough.
George
"Weatherlawyer" <Weathe...@hotmail.com> wrote in message
news:1189668636.2...@22g2000hsm.googlegroups.com...
> On Sep 13, 6:19 am, Belba Grubb <trungsister...@yahoo.com> wrote:
>> This is probably a very dumb question, but with 20 aftershocks (as of
>> right now), including two in the 7 range and a 6.0, I wonder if this
>> is having or can be expected to have any effect on local volcanism.
Yes, it is possible for earthquakes to disturb magma chambers in the region
and cause eruptions. Whether or not this event will, who knows? We'll have
to wait and see.
> Strap me but I was thinking I could hear a fat lady singing:
>
> 7.1 2007/09/13 03:35 Kepulauan Mentawai Region, Indonesia
> 5.5 2007/09/13 02:51 Kepulauan Mentawai Region, Indonesia
> 5.9 2007/09/13 02:30 Kepulauan Mentawai Region, Indonesia
> 5.0 2007/09/13 01:55 Southern Sumatra Indonesia
> 5.2 2007/09/13 01:49 Kepulauan Mentawai Region, Indonesia
> 5.2 2007/09/13 01:38 Kepulauan Mentawai Region, Indonesia
> 5.8 2007/09/13 01:26 Kepulauan Mentawai Region, Indonesia
> 7.8 2007/09/12 23:49 Kepulauan Mentawai Region, Indonesia
>
> Weather forecasts over here are getting in tune with the music of the
> spheres and all that, what?
>
> Mists on them though, interestingly enough.
I posted here 2004 when the 9.4 quake struck that the portion of the
megathrust southeast of that quake would likely go in the next few years
since the stress has been shifted to the southeast. It was a likely bet
since this megathrust is one of the most active on the planet, and one of
the most violent. Kerry Sieh, in fact, predicted it would likely break
before the northern stretch did, and so this one has been, for all intents
and purposes, overdue. I also don't think this is over by a long shot. I
think more are coming in the next few months to years. The 2004 quake
destabilized much of the megathrust, and it obviously has yet to stabilize
along its entire length. There may be some more aftershocks to the
northwest, but I expect the segment closer to Jakarta to break anytime.
But, that's just a hunch, folks. I could be wrong. I certainly have
before.
George
Weatherlawyer
> "Weatherlawyer" <Weatherlaw...@hotmail.com> wrote in message
Be kinder to yourself. It's not often a confirmed nay sayer can
forecast an earthquake. Unless he gives Indonesia through an open
window of course.
You did say Indonesia did you not?
Or was it New Guinea?
George
Prior to the 2004 great earthquake, I predicted the 7.5 quake that struck
Indonesia earlier that year, and won the Earthquake contest on this
newsgroup. Petra remembers, don't you, Petra?
George
George
Do note that they've now had a fourth large Earthquake just this morning.
George
rick++
Even in Bengladesh which is low-lying.
Weatherlawyer
> AP article said there were better wranings this quake.
> Even in Bengladesh which is low-lying.
I loke et wehn E am no tha wust splleller.
Belba Grubb
> Yes, it is possible for earthquakes to disturb magma chambers in the region
> and cause eruptions. Whether or not this event will, who knows? We'll have
> to wait and see.
Yes; it could cause eruptions or prevent them. Some volcanoes might
even go dormant. Most effects would probably show up short-term on
any local geothermal activities. It's still ongoing. Amazing.
> I posted here 2004 when the 9.4 quake struck that the portion of the
> megathrust southeast of that quake would likely go in the next few years
> since the stress has been shifted to the southeast. It was a likely bet
> since this megathrust is one of the most active on the planet, and one of
> the most violent. Kerry Sieh, in fact, predicted it would likely break
> before the northern stretch did, and so this one has been, for all intents
> and purposes, overdue. I also don't think this is over by a long shot. I
> think more are coming in the next few months to years. The 2004 quake
> destabilized much of the megathrust, and it obviously has yet to stabilize
> along its entire length. There may be some more aftershocks to the
> northwest, but I expect the segment closer to Jakarta to break anytime.
> But, that's just a hunch, folks. I could be wrong. I certainly have
> before.
It certainly makes sense to me. There was some imperfect
stabilization, it would seem, between 2004 and now, but this most
recently 8.4 seems to have really destabilized things. What is it
going to take to reestablish stability, one wonders.
Also, since you're much more familiar with this area, what role might
the 5.1 Sunda Strait event about 19 hours before the 8.4 in Southern
Sumatra have played?
Barb
----------
Men of science have quarreled with the Bible because it is not based
upon the true astronomical system, but it is certainly open to the
orthodox to say that if it had been it would never have convinced
anybody.
-- G. K. Chesterton
The Bible shows the way to go to heaven, not the way the heavens go.
-- Galileo
Weatherlawyer
>
> The Bible shows the way to go to heaven, not the way the heavens go.
> -- Galileo
Galileo would have been delighted to learn of his ignorance, I
imagine.
I wonder if he could have ever grasped fractals though.
George
"Belba Grubb" <trungsi...@yahoo.com> wrote in message
news:1189820149....@y42g2000hsy.googlegroups.com...
I saw that quake appear on the NEIC site before the 8.4 occurred. At the
risk of being shot down like a quail, I'd say, and this is just my own
opinion, that it probably had little effect.
George
Belba Grubb
> I saw that quake appear on the NEIC site before the 8.4 occurred. At the
> risk of being shot down like a quail, I'd say, and this is just my own
> opinion, that it probably had little effect.
Nobody's loaded for quail, apparently. (BG)
I get the NEIC feed for tremors equal to or greater than 5. It did
seem to have stabilized a bit shortly after my last post, with the
region not dominating the list, at least for the larger tremors, but
now that frequency seems to have picked up slightly, though not yet
anywhere near what it was earlier. Perhaps it is slowly stabilizing?
Barb
----------
Pitch by pitch, baseball produces a rich sediment of numbers....
-- George Will, in "Diamond-Hard Integrity"
George
Let's hope so. The people of Indonesia have been through enough in the
last 3 years!
George
Weatherlawyer
>
> I get the NEIC feed for tremors equal to or greater than 5. It did
> seem to have stabilized a bit shortly after my last post, with the
> region not dominating the list, at least for the larger tremors, but
> now that frequency seems to have picked up slightly, though not yet
> anywhere near what it was earlier. Perhaps it is slowly stabilizing?
Wasn't there a severe quake in the region in September sometime about
equinox the year of the infamous Winter Solstice one?
Just been going through my latest Hopes Magma when I noticed it. If it
turns out correct I'll do an article on that.