Why experts say a solar storm could cause trillions of dollars worth of damage

[useapen]

The sun is beginning to enter a more active time for flares that cause
solar storms that can impact the Earth.

As Earth enters this new phase, experts have been discussing how these
solar storms could affect modern advancements on the planet and even lead
to what a team from George Mason University called an “internet
apocalypse.”

“The internet has come of age during a time when the sun has been
relatively quiet, and now it’s entering a more active time,” Professor
Peter Becker of George Mason University told Fox Weather. “It’s the first
time in human history that there’s been an intersection of increased solar
activity with our dependence on the internet and our global economic
dependence on the internet.”

When was the last solar flare?
Solar flares aren’t rare, but they do rarely hit Earth.

As the sun’s solar cycle begins to hit its peak, more solar storms caused
by flares will be likely, according to the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration.

On Aug. 5, a strong solar flare erupted from the sun’s surface but there
weren’t any resounding effects, per NASA.

According to NASA, flares become dangerous when they bypass Earth’s
natural defenses, like its magnetic fields, and hit the surface of the
planet.

What happens if a solar flare hits Earth?
When solar flares do hit Earth, they can wreak havoc to electronics and
communication systems.

NOAA warns that GPS systems and radio signals can be disturbed by a solar
storm.

What if the 1859 solar storm happened today?
The largest solar storm on record is called the Carrington Event from
1859, per NASA. During the event, the flare caused geomagnetic chaos as it
sparked fires on telegraphs and disrupted the whole communication system
of the day.

“Such technological chaos could cripple economies and endanger the safety
and livelihoods of people worldwide,” wrote NASA.

Could a solar flare wipe out the Internet?
Becker told Fox Weather that these stronger storms could have the
potential to wipe out the internet unless the technology is “hardened” or
if a proper warning is given.

Will there be a solar storm in 2025?
NASA predicts, based on the sun’s 11-year cycle, that a large flare called
a “solar maximum” will happen sometime in 2025, which experts are
preparing for.

Can we prepare for a solar flare?
New technology such as artificial intelligence has been used and is being
developed by NASA to better predict sun flares up to 30 minutes in advance
— the system is called DAGGER.

“With this AI, it is now possible to make rapid and accurate global
predictions and inform decisions in the event of a solar storm, thereby
minimizing — or even preventing — devastation to modern society,” Vishal
Upendran, of the Inter-University Center for Astronomy and Astrophysics in
India, told NASA.

Just like hurricane and tornado warnings, experts may one day develop
solar storm sirens to warn of an upcoming event.

https://www.deseret.com/2023/11/14/23960735/what-is-solar-storm

[R Kym Horsell]

In alt.global-warming useapen <your...@outlook.com> wrote:
> The sun is beginning to enter a more active time for flares that cause
> solar storms that can impact the Earth.
> As Earth enters this new phase, experts have been discussing how these
> solar storms could affect modern advancements on the planet and even lead

> to what a team from George Mason University called an ?internet
> apocalypse.?
...

I have no data on "internet events" but us power outages certainly
are highly related to geo magnetic storms. It seems the US grid takes
great pains to avoid problems. But the opposite seems to be true of
windstorms.

Looking at geomagnetic events over the past 20y we find a huge -ve
correlation with US power outages.
2002 209
2003 396
2004 299
2005 263
2006 170
2007 130
2008 93
2009 39
2010 88
2011 95
2012 135
2013 99
2014 112
2015 324
2016 278
2017 275
2018 131
2019 89
2020 57
2021 64
(ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/alerts)

Stats tests against number of US power outages:
y = -0.224288*x + 300.005
P(beta<0.000000) = 0.847111
Rank test: Spearman corr = -0.438596
critical value = .388; reject H0:not_connected at 5% sig

A similar situation for both proton and electron
events.

Yet when it comes to windstorms:

2000 16872 31 165.546**
2001 16107 15 162.244**
2002 16401 34 163.513**
2003 15159 78 158.152*
2004 15789 102 160.872
2005 15644 90 160.246*
2006 18205 109 171.3*
2007 16829 86 165.361*
2008 23447 171 193.928
2009 18280 106 171.624*
2010 20697 138 182.057
2011 26943 356 209.018**
2012 21973 264 187.565*
2013 18231 218 171.413
2014 18331 245 171.844*
2015 17214 191 167.023
2016 19498 155 176.882
P(beta>0.000000) = 0.921111
Rank test: Spearman corr = 0.784314
critical value = .5825; reject H0:not_connected at 1% sig

The squeaky wheel gits the greese.

[Siri Cruise]

R Kym Horsell wrote:
> In alt.global-warming useapen<your...@outlook.com> wrote:
>> The sun is beginning to enter a more active time for flares that cause
>> solar storms that can impact the Earth.
>> As Earth enters this new phase, experts have been discussing how these
>> solar storms could affect modern advancements on the planet and even lead
>> to what a team from George Mason University called an ?internet
>> apocalypse.?
> ...
>
> I have no data on "internet events" but us power outages certainly
> are highly related to geo magnetic storms. It seems the US grid takes
> great pains to avoid problems. But the opposite seems to be true of
> windstorms.
>

Solar winds and flares have no effect on the surface except to
make pretty lights in the sky. There's also the inverse squared
rule so electromagnetic fields of a lightning strike in your yard
is stronger than the sun's.

The earth is starting a pole flip. I've seen at one Chicken Little
warning us with dread. Which ignores the earth has had many pole
flips and none has a correlated mass extinction.

Sunspots affect the upper atmosphere where radio waves reflected,
so they affect radio but not things down here at the bottom.

--
Siri Seal of Disavowal #000-001. Disavowed. Denied. @
'I desire mercy, not sacrifice.' /|\
The Church of the Holey Apple .signature 3.2 / \
of Discordian Mysteries. This post insults Islam. Mohamed

[Governor Swill]

On Wed, 22 Nov 2023 11:39:51 -0800, Siri Cruise <chine...@www.yahoo.com> wrote:

>R Kym Horsell wrote:
>> In alt.global-warming useapen<your...@outlook.com> wrote:
>>> The sun is beginning to enter a more active time for flares that cause
>>> solar storms that can impact the Earth.
>>> As Earth enters this new phase, experts have been discussing how these
>>> solar storms could affect modern advancements on the planet and even lead
>>> to what a team from George Mason University called an ?internet
>>> apocalypse.?
>> ...
>>
>> I have no data on "internet events" but us power outages certainly
>> are highly related to geo magnetic storms. It seems the US grid takes
>> great pains to avoid problems. But the opposite seems to be true of
>> windstorms.
>>
>
>Solar winds and flares have no effect on the surface except to
>make pretty lights in the sky.

Then no effect on the surface at all? As you say, those lights are in the sky, not down
here.

>There's also the inverse squared
>rule so electromagnetic fields of a lightning strike in your yard
>is stronger than the sun's.
>
>The earth is starting a pole flip. I've seen at one Chicken Little
>warning us with dread. Which ignores the earth has had many pole
>flips and none has a correlated mass extinction.
>
>Sunspots affect the upper atmosphere where radio waves reflected,
>so they affect radio but not things down here at the bottom.

They also knock out satellites, which disrupts communication and trade. So yes, Virginia,
sunspots DO have effects "down here".

Swill
--
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[R Kym Horsell]

...

In science we dont take anyone's word for anything. Perhaps moreso
anonymous posters x-posting from politics groups. (Just sayin;).

From the US govt GPS reports you can cull the number of major
outages to the system (there are fine-grained things as well).

But on month-by-month outages in available reports we find

Suspect Lag(m) Trans R2
sunspots 4 0.32410852
xflare-count 0 -x 0.17166137
electron-event 3 0.08702234
geomagnetic-event 4 -x 0.03932141
xflare-flux 12 -x 0.01719371

The "suspect" datasets were ARMA(1,1) regressed against the monthly
outage numbers. All care was taken. All tests had to pass at better than
10% sig (90% confidence) a T-test and a rank test. I.e. we are "sure"
there is a relationship. All the betas are +ve meaning months with
more Xflares, Sunspots, Electron events, Geomag storms mean more GSP
outages.

The R2 show the percent of outages across the whole dataset that
are explained by the relevant factor.

But the very interesting thing for me is apart from the number of X flares
in a month all the others show up as effects months later.

X flares (the count, anyway) shows up in the same month as the outages.
For some reason the aggregate scale of the flares doesnt show up
strongly until 12 m later.

Design your sat's accordingly. :)

--
<kaggle.com/kymhorsell1>