H1 Of 2008 Coldest Half Year Since H1 Of 1997
Z00BN
8 Jul 2008
QUOTE: No, it is not a typo. I really mean that 2008 has been cooler
than the "cold" La Nina years and half-years during the 1998-2001 La
Nina episode, too. And that's true despite the fact that the 1998-2001
La Nina episode was both longer and stronger than the recent one. To
summarize, there's no global warming in the recent 10 years of data.
QUOTE: The Northern polar region cooled from 1.03 to 0.49 °C between May
and June 2008.
QUOTE: a Dutch team just published a study that shows that the Greenland
melting cycle exhibits no trend in the last 17 years.
According to UAH MSU, the global temperature anomaly in June 2008
was -0.11 °C, up from -0.18 °C in May 2008.
A similar warming from -0.083 °C in May 2008 to +0.035 °C in June 2008
has been reported by RSS MSU, too.
But let us focus on UAH MSU. Anomaly-wise, June 2008 was the third
coldest month of the 21st century so far, after May 2008 and July 2004
(that had -0.12 °C, almost the same temperature).
If I were as manipulative (or stupid) as Al Gore, I would also build on
the fact that three of the four months in this century with a negative
temperature anomaly occurred in 2008 (July 2004; January, May, June
2008).
But this statement is not so surprising for sensible people because the
temperature is a continuous (although not smooth) function of time and
nearby months should be expected to have similar temperatures. Once we
know that May 2008 was the coldest month, it shouldn't shock you that
you will find nearby months in the hit parade, too.
Polar regions
In terms of the anomaly, the land in the Southern polar lands -
Antarctica - cooled by a hefty 2.35 °C from the previous month - from
+0.82 to -1.53 °C. Such things happen near the poles where all changes
are amplified and where the area is not too large to guarantee a
constancy of temperature.
The Northern polar region cooled from 1.03 to 0.49 °C between May and
June 2008.
The total sea ice anomaly is currently near zero, as a positive anomaly
of the Southern Hemisphere cancels the negative anomaly of the Northern
Hemisphere. A year ago, the total anomaly was around -2 million squared
kilometers. Those "experts" who bet that there will be less ice in 2008
than 2007 don't look particularly clever to me.
By the way, a Dutch team just published a study that shows that the
Greenland melting cycle exhibits no trend in the last 17 years. See
Andrew Revkin's blog and NYT article.
The first half of 2008
The first half of 2008 is over so we can say something about this
period. According to the UAH MSU data, the average temperature anomaly
for those six months was -0.03 °C, making the H1 of 2008 the coldest
half-year since H1 of 1997. It's been a half-year of a cooling U.S. job
market, too.
No, it is not a typo. I really mean that 2008 has been cooler than the
"cold" La Nina years and half-years during the 1998-2001 La Nina
episode, too. And that's true despite the fact that the 1998-2001 La
Nina episode was both longer and stronger than the recent one. To
summarize, there's no global warming in the recent 10 years of data.
This absence of warming becomes even more striking in the middle
troposphere where the bulk of the greenhouse effect is being predicted
while the reality shows an even slower warming trend if any. In fact,
the trend since 1979 is 0.00 °C per decade on the Southern Hemisphere
and 0.05 °C per decade globally, justifying the claim that there exists
no satellite-observed global warming in the mid troposphere.
UAH MSU sees the global June 2008 anomaly in the mid troposphere
as -0.20 °C and the average of H1 of 2008 equals -0.18 °C. Since the
beginning of the UAH satellite records in 1979, only a few half-years in
1984, 1985, 1989, 1993 were cooler than H1 of 2008.
La Nina and the Sun
The La Nina conditions have changed to ENSO-neutral conditions that are
expected to last at least through the Fall 2008 which should remove the
negative ENSO bias: we will see whether we will return to "hot"
temperatures.
The Sun remains sunspot-free and quiet which could keep the Earth rather
cool.
http://motls.blogspot.com/2008/07/uah-june-2008-still-negative-anomaly.html
--
Regards
Bonzo
"A lot of environmental messages are simply not accurate. But that's the
way we sell messages in this society. We use hype. And we use those
pieces of information that sustain our position." Professor Jerry
Franklin, Ecologist, University of Washington
Vote out Brendan Nelson
memory.
R Kym Horsell
The JMA has just released its assessment of global surf temps in Oct
2023. Like other agencies it finds Oct is the latest of a string of
months that are well above prev records.
In the JMA dataset new records are typically .01-.05 above the prev
record for that month.
But Oct 2023 is 10x that -- more than 1/3 of a deg C above the super
El Nino years of 2015/16.
- - -
Monthly Anomalies of Global Average Surface Temperature in October (1891 - 2023,
preliminary value)
The monthly anomaly of the global average surface temperature in
October 2023 (i.e. the average of the near-surface air temperature over
land and the SST) was +0.74°C above the 1991-2020 average (+1.26°C
above the 20th century average), and was the warmest since 1891. On a
longer time scale, global average surface temperatures have risen at a
rate of about 0.70°C per century.
Five Warmest Years (Anomalies)
1st. 2023(+0.74°C),
<-- +.36!!
2nd. 2015(+0.38°C),
<-- +.03
3rd. 2019(+0.35°C),
<-- +.05
4th. 2022,2021(+0.30°C)
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