Seot 2021: 2021 has 18 $bn weather disasters Jan-Sept; passing the total for tornado superoutbreak year 2011 at 16

[MrPosti...@kymhorsell.com]

The NOAA has updated its list of US weather disasters resulting in
more than $1 bn in damages (CPI adjusted).

So far 2021 has seen 18 events, ranking 2nd behind 2929 at 22 and
passing the tornado superoutbreak year of 2011 with only 18.

The events added since June are:

Tropical Storm Elsa (July 2021)
Central Severe Storms (July 2021)
North Central Severe Weather (August 2021)
Tropical Storm Fred (August 2021)
Hurricane Ida (August 2021)
Hurricane Nicholas (Sept 2021)
Western Drought and Heatwave (2021)
Western Wildfires (Summer-Fall 2021)

The last 3 events have not yet been fully costed but it looks like
2021 will take First Place by total damages by a long chalk with
Hurricane Ida provisionally costed by the Dept of Commerce at $64.5
bn, the single most costly (in real terms -- adjusted for
inflation) weather event recorded in the US. A total of 96 deaths has
also been attributed to the storm.

The most deadly event this year has been the Western Drought with 229
deaths so far.

The total damages up to the end of Sept 2021 are $104.8 bn (not
including 3 TBD events in 2021).

By decade the costs (in real terms -- adjusted for inflation) of US
weather disasters are increasing:

Decade Avg annual costs $bns (2021 dollars)
1980 20.81
1990 28.84
2000 54.72
2010 85.87
2020(*) 112.99
(*)Incomplete.

A TS regr year by year shows the annual damage bill is doubling in
real terms (2021 dollars) every 14.6 years. If weather disasters cost
each American $339/yr (2021 dollars) now, by 2100 that will be $14600/yr.

The various top10 lists are now:

By number of $bn weather disasters:

2020 22
2021(*) 18
2011 16
2017 16
2016 15
2018 14
2019 14
2008 12
2012 11
2015 11
(only 3 of 4Q).

By total damages ($bns in real terms -- i.e. adj for inflation):

Year $bns (in 2021 dollars)
2017 340.16
2005 239.33
2012 140.21
2021(*) 125.71
2020 100.26
2018 98.60
2011 84.14
2008 83.84
2004 81.12
1992 70.78
(only 3 of 4Q; 3 events also TBD)

By total weather fatalities:

2005 6006
1988 5448
1980 5120
2017 4371
1999 1977
1995 1954
1983 1032
1996 932
1993 814
1997 738



The disaster year is by no means over.

There are still 3m of 2021 to go. Historically 4Q has 10% of the
annual weather disasters, 22% of the costs, and 20% of the weather
fatalities.


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