WARMIST CONSPIRACY EXPOSED
o.n.0.b.
November 20 2009
8.15 PM UPDATE: The Hadley University of East Anglia CRU director admits the
emails seem to be genuine:
The director of Britain's leading Climate Research Unit, Phil Jones, has
told Investigate magazine's TGIF Edition tonight ..."It was a hacker. We
were aware of this about three or four days ago that someone had hacked into
our system and taken and copied loads of data files and emails.".
TGIF asked Jones about the controversial email discussing "hiding the
decline", and Jones explained what he was trying to say..
So the 1079 emails and 72 documents seem indeed evidence of a scandal
involving most of the most prominent scientists pushing the man-made warming
theory - a scandal that is one of the greatest in modern science. I've been
adding some of the most astonishing in updates below - emails suggesting
conspiracy, collusion in exaggerating warming data, possibly illegal
destruction of embarrassing information, organised resistance to disclosure,
manipulation of data, private admissions of flaws in their public claims and
much more. If it is as it now seems, never again will "peer review" be used
to shout down sceptics.
This is clearly not the work of some hacker, but of an insider who's now
blown the whistle.
Not surprising, then, that Steve McIntyre reports:
Earlier today, CRU cancelled all existing passwords. Actions speaking
loudly.
But back to the original post - and the most astonishing of the emails so
far.
======================================
Hackers have broken into the data base of the University of East Anglia's
Climatic Research Unit - one of the world's leading alarmist centres - and
put the files they stole on the Internet, on the grounds that the science is
too important to be kept under wraps.
The ethics of this are dubious, to say the least. But the files suggest, on
a very preliminary glance, some other very dubious practices, too, and a lot
of collusion - sometimes called "peer review". Or even conspiracy.
A warning, of course. We can only say with a 90 per cent confidence interval
that these emails are real.
UPDATE
Ethics alert! (my bolding - and I've update this post with the full alleged
email, now):
From: Phil Jones
To: ray bradley ,mann@XXXX, mhughes@XXXX
Subject: Diagram for WMO Statement
Date: Tue, 16 Nov 1999 13:31:15 +0000
Cc: k.br...@XXX.osborn@XXXX
Dear Ray, Mike and Malcolm,
Once Tim's got a diagram here we'll send that either later today or first
thing tomorrow.
I've just completed Mike's Nature trick of adding in the real temps to each
series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) amd from 1961 for Keith's
to hide the decline. Mike's series got the annual land and marine values
while the other two got April-Sept for NH land N of 20N. The latter two are
real for 1999, while the estimate for 1999 for NH combined is +0.44C wrt
61-90. The Global estimate for 1999 with data through Oct is +0.35C cf. 0.57
for 1998.
Thanks for the comments, Ray.
Cheers
Phil
Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit Telephone XXXX
School of Environmental Sciences Fax XXXX
University of East Anglia
Norwich
.
Nice. This could be fun.
UPDATE 2
Surely these emails can't be genuine. Surely the world's most prominent
alarmist scientists aren't secretly exchanging emails like this, admitting
privately they can't find the warming they've been so loudly predicting?:
From: Kevin Trenberth
To: Michael Mann
Subject: Re: BBC U-turn on climate
Date: Mon, 12 Oct 2009 08:57:37 -0600
Cc: Stephen H Schneider , Myles Allen , peter stott , "Philip D. Jones" ,
Benjamin Santer , Tom Wigley , Thomas R Karl , Gavin Schmidt , James Hansen
, Michael Oppenheimer
Hi all
Well I have my own article on where the heck is global warming ? We are
asking that here in Boulder where we have broken records the past two days
for the coldest days on record. We had 4 inches of snow. The high the last 2
days was below 30F and the normal is 69F, and it smashed the previous
records for these days by 10F. The low was about 18F and also a record low,
well below the previous record low.
This is January weather (see the Rockies baseball playoff game was canceled
on saturday and then played last night in below freezing weather).
Trenberth, K. E., 2009: An imperative for climate change planning: tracking
Earth's global energy. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 1,
19-27, doi:10.1016/j.cosust.2009.06.001. [1][PDF] (A PDF of the published
version can be obtained from the author.)
***
The fact is that we can't account for the lack of warming at the moment and
it is a travesty that we can't. The CERES data published in the August BAMS
09 supplement on 2008 shows there should be even more warming: but the data
are surely wrong. Our observing system is inadequate.***
This has to be a forgery, surely. Because if it isn't, we're about to see
the unpicking of a huge scandal.
I mean, the media will follow this up, right? In the meantime, use with
care.
UPDATE 3
Have I said "conspiracy" already?
From: Tom Wigley
To: Phil Jones
Subject: LAND vs OCEAN
Date: Fri, 06 Nov 2009 17:36:15 -0700
We probably need to say more about this. Land warming since 1980 has been
twice the ocean warming - and skeptics might claim that this proves that
urban warming is real and important.
See attached note.
Comments?
Tom
Mopping up any awkward evidence about the IPCC's latest report before
Climate Audit gets hold of it?
From: Phil Jones
To: "Michael E. Mann"
Subject: IPCC & FOI
Date: Thu May 29 11:04:11 2008
Mike,
Can you delete any emails you may have had with Keith re AR4?
Keith will do likewise. He's not in at the moment - minor family crisis.
Can you also email Gene and get him to do the same? I don't have his new
email address.
We will be getting Caspar to do likewise.
I see that CA claim they discovered the 1945 problem in the Nature paper!!
Cheers
Phil
Prof. Phil Jones
Climatic Research Unit
Destroying government data subject to an FOI request is a criminal offence.
Is this data being deleted the stuff CA asked from Jones in repeated FOI
requests? If true, Jones had better get himself a lawyer very fast, but I
doubt very much he would have done anything remotely illegal.
UPDATE 4
This, if true (caution!), is especially sick. (Note; John Daly was a
Tasmanian sceptic who did superb work, especially on sea level rises on the
"Isle of the Dead"). I've added the boldening):
From: Phil Jones
To: ma...@vxxxxx.xxx
Subject: Fwd: John L. Daly dead
Date: Thu Jan 29 14:17:01 2004
From: Timo H?meranta
To:
Subject: John L. Daly dead
Date: Thu, 29 Jan 2004 12:04:28 +0200
X-Mailer: Microsoft Outlook, Build 10.0.4510
Importance: Normal
Mike,
In an odd way this is cheering news ! One other thing about the CC paper -
just found another email - is that McKittrick says it is standard practice
in Econometrics journals to give all the data and codes !! According to
legal advice IPR overrides this.
Cheers
Phil
"It is with deep sadness that the Daly Family have to announce the sudden
death of John Daly.Condolences may be sent to John's email account
(daly@XXXX)
"
Reported with great sadness
UPDATE 5
I said conspiracy, but Professor Overpeck (a contact of Robyn "100 metres"
Williams) prefers they be called the "team":
At 14:09 -0600 13-09-06, Jonathan Overpeck wrote:
thanks David - lets see what others think. I agree, that we don't want to be
seen as being too clever or defensive. Note however, that all the TAR said
was "likely" the warmest in the last 1000 years. Our chapter and figs
(including 6.10) make it clear that it is unlikely any multi-decadal period
was as warm as the last 50 years. But, that said, I do feel your are right
that our team would not have said what the TAR said about 1998, and thus, we
should delete that second sentence.
any other thoughts team?
(Thanks to various readers.)
UPDATE 6
The anonymous hackers offer this brief summary of their alleged finds so
far:
0926010576.txt * Mann: working towards a common goal
1189722851.txt * Jones: "try and change the Received date!"
0924532891.txt * Mann vs. CRU
0847838200.txt * Briffa & Yamal 1996: "too much growth in recent years makes
it difficult to derive a valid age/growth curve"
0926026654.txt * Jones: MBH dodgy ground
1225026120.txt * CRU's truncated temperature curve
1059664704.txt * Mann: dirty laundry
1062189235.txt * Osborn: concerns with MBH uncertainty
0926947295.txt * IPCC scenarios not supposed to be realistic
0938018124.txt * Mann: "something else" causing discrepancies
0939154709.txt * Osborn: we usually stop the series in 1960
0933255789.txt * WWF report: beef up if possible
0998926751.txt * "Carefully constructed" model scenarios to get
"distinguishable results"
0968705882.txt * CLA: "IPCC is not any more an assessment of published
science but production of results"
1075403821.txt * Jones: Daly death "cheering news"
1029966978.txt * Briffa - last decades exceptional, or not?
1092167224.txt * Mann: "not necessarily wrong, but it makes a small
difference" (factor 1.29)
1188557698.txt * Wigley: "Keenan has a valid point"
1118949061.txt * we'd like to do some experiments with different proxy
combinations
1120593115.txt * I am reviewing a couple of papers on extremes, so that I
can refer to them in the chapter for AR4
UPDATE 7
Regarding that FOI request sent to Jones, referred to above. Here (if the
email is genuine) he discusses in a file called "jones-foiathoughts.doc" his
evident reluctance to hand over information, presumably to Climate Audit -
and lists as one option sending back the information just as raw data, which
would "annoy" those behind the FOI request:
Options appear to be:
Send them the data
Send them a subset removing station data from some of the countries who made
us pay in the normals papers of Hulme et al. (1990s) and also any number
that David can remember. This should also omit some other countries like
(Australia, NZ, Canada, Antarctica). Also could extract some of the sources
that Anders added in (31-38 source codes in J&M 2003). Also should remove
many of the early stations that we coded up in the 1980s.
Send them the raw data as is, by reconstructing it from GHCN. How could this
be done? Replace all stations where the WMO ID agrees with what is in GHCN.
This would be the raw data, but it would annoy them.
UPDATE 8
The warmist scientists at RealClimate show how carefully they've screened
and manipulated their site to muffle any scepticism:
From: "Michael E. Mann"
To: Tim Osborn, Keith Briffa
Subject: update
Date: Thu, 09 Feb 2006 16:51:53 -0500
Cc: Gavin Schmidt
guys, I see that Science has already gone online w/ the new issue, so we put
up the RC post. By now, you've probably read that nasty McIntyre thing.
Apparently, he violated the embargo on his website (I don't go there
personally, but so I'm informed).
Anyway, I wanted you guys to know that you're free to use RC in any way you
think would be helpful. Gavin and I are going to be careful about what
comments we screen through, and we'll be very careful to answer any
questions that come up to any extent we can. On the other hand, you might
want to visit the thread and post replies yourself. We can hold
comments up in the queue and contact you about whether or not you think they
should be screened through or not, and if so, any comments you'd like us to
include.
You're also welcome to do a followup guest post, etc. think of RC as a
resource that is at your disposal to combat any disinformation put forward
by the McIntyres of the world. Just let us know. We'll use our best
discretion to make sure the skeptics dont'get to use the RC comments as a
megaphone.
I have mentioned "conspiracy", right? RealClimate is so far silent.
UPDATE 9
Reader Chemist finds more which - if true - make this proof of a conspiracy
which is one of the largest, most extraordinary and most disgraceful in
moderrn science, given the stakes:
Here are some gems. "I did get an email from the FOI person here early
yesterday to tell me I shouldn't be deleting emails unless this was 'normal'
deleting to keep emails manageable!""Yes, I am aware of the confusion
surrounding what the Hadley Centre did and why. It is even messier than you
realize. I have forcing data sets (more than one!) from Jonathon Gregory
that differ from the numbers yougave in your email!!""Ed to be really
honest, I don't see how this was ever accepted for publication in
Nature.""Mike,I'd rather you didn't. I think it should be sufficient to
forward the para from Andrew Conrie'semail that says the paper has been
rejected by all 3 reviewers. You can say that the paper was an extended and
updated version of that which appeared in CR.Obviously, under no
circumstances should any of this get back to Pielke.Cheers""we are having
trouble to express the real message of the reconstructions - being
scientifically sound in representing uncertainty , while still getting the
crux of the information across clearly."
UPDATE 10
How to minimise data to exaggerate a warming trend
From: Tom Wigley [...]
To: Phil Jones [...]
Subject: 1940s
Date: Sun, 27 Sep 2009 23:25:38 -0600
Cc: Ben Santer [...]
Phil,
Here are some speculations on correcting SSTs to partly explain the 1940s
warming blip. If you look at the attached plot you will see that theland
also shows the 1940s blip (as I'm sure you know).
So, if we could reduce the ocean blip by, say, 0.15 degC, then this would be
significant for the global mean - but we'd still have to explain the land
blip. I've chosen 0.15 here deliberately. This still leaves an ocean blip,
and i think one needs to have some form of ocean blip to explain the land
blip (via either some common forcing, or ocean forcing land, or vice versa,
or all of these). When you look at other blips, the land blips are 1.5 to 2
times (roughly) the ocean blips-higher sensitivity plus thermal inertia
effects. My 0.15 adjustment leaves things consistent with this, so you can
see where I am coming from.
Removing ENSO does not affect this.
It would be good to remove at least part of the 1940s blip, but we are still
left with "why the blip".
Let me go further. If you look at NH vs SH and the aerosol effect
(qualitatively or with MAGICC) then with a reduced ocean blip we get
continuous warming in the SH, and a cooling in the NH-just as one would
expect with mainly NH aerosols.
The other interesting thing is (as Foukal et al. note - from MAGICC) that
the 1910-40 warming cannot be solar. The Sun can get at most 10% of this
with Wang et al solar, less with Foukal solar. So this may well be NADW, as
Sarah and I noted in 1987 (and also Schlesinger later). A reduced SST blip
in the 1940s makes the 1910-40 warming larger than the SH (which it
currently is not)-but not really enough.
So ... why was the SH so cold around 1910? Another SST problem? (SH/NH data
also attached.)
This stuff is in a report I am writing for EPRI, so I'd appreciate any
comments you (and Ben) might have.
Tom.
UPDATE 11
Keeping sceptic Chris de Freitas out of the IPCC reports:
The other paper by MM is just garbage - as you knew. De Freitas again.
Pielke is also losing all credibility as well by replying to the mad Finn as
well - frequently as I see it. I can't see either of these papers being in
the next IPCC report. K and I will keep them out somehow - even if we have
to redefine what the peer-review literature is !
UPDATE 12
Which way to the trough (1252672219.txt 11 Sep 09)?
> After asking Anjuli I can confirm that government employees cannot receive
> funding besides travel reimbursement. So for those of you that are
> GOVERNMENT EMPLOYEES, the only thing that remains to do is to go through
> the document once again, make sure your work (past and future) is not
> misrepresented, and then send me a note with an "OK" or your new comments,
> specifying that you are a government employee (please don't let me guess
> it).
For those of you that are ACADEMICS WITH 12 MONTHS SALARY all that we can
budget is a small amount of consulting fees, up to 2 weeks' worth.
If you belong to this category please respond saying that you are or you are
not interested. If you are, then include in the document at the end in the
place already arranged for it a statement of work referring to specific
tasks as they stand in Section 3 of the narrative, and a bio-sketch (see end
of this email for specific instructions).
For THOSE OF YOU THAT CAN GET FULL SUPPORT, please say if you want it or >
not, and if you do, then do as I requested above: include in the document at
the end in the place already rranged for it a statement of work referring to
specific tasks as they stand in Section 3 of the narrative, and a bio-sketch
(see end of this email for specific instructions).
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/hadley_hacked/
Warmest Regards
B0n oz
"It is a remarkable fact that despite the worldwide expenditure of perhaps
US$50 billion since 1990, and the efforts of tens of thousands of scientists
worldwide, no human climate signal has yet been detected that is distinct
from natural variation."
Bob Carter, Research Professor of Geology, James Cook University, Townsville