the waste export bidness

[MrPosti...@kymhorsell.com]

I have a little AI program that can answer 2 types of questions:
(a) which kinds of things result in X
and (b) what are the effects of X

It has a little built-in qualitative reasoning, some statistical
packages, and the ability to download databases off the net.

So I can ask it -- for those countries that important waste from the
developed world, what are the effects of those imports.

It found some quantitative data that was protected against upload (for
some reason some people keep tack of waste tonnage imported by various
countries, but then doesn't like to let anyone else find out what
those numbers are). But it also found a qualitative dataset.


Country Rank in waste imports bidness
bangladesh 9
china 5
ghana 1
guinea 13
guinea-bissau 17
haiti 14
india 6
indonesia 11
ivory_coast 10
kenya 12
lebanon 18
mexico 15
nigeria 3
pakistan 8
philippines 2
somalia 4
south 19
sweden 20
vietnam 7
zimbabwe 16


Fortunately, this is the kind of data its reasoning subroutines were
designed for. :)

Interesting, too, that Sweden appears No 20 on the list. Sweden itself
generates so little waste it has to import garbage from other
countries to burn in its garbage-fired electricity generator network.

So we can take this list and ask Mr AI -- what are the effects of
importing more waste?

This is its coded output:

Effect R2 Beta stderr(Beta)
jntsv3 0.75952576 0.596365 0.205042
pubsrv3 0.72034981 0.960609 0.365721
pubsv 0.71756747 0.782357 0.299915
services 0.65874095 1.60003 0.703688
popden 0.65616233 -10.9573 5.21477
yag 0.65443842 -0.0401269 0.0191701
pubcon 0.62395690 1.03402 0.490497
comin4 0.61757346 1.1873 0.570897
comin3 0.61309658 2.48082 1.2042
ppubco 0.61308916 1.24042 0.602116
pprico 0.61308890 -1.24042 0.602116
max-ind-tax 0.57101594 -0.933333 0.438042
yprisrv 0.39497001 0.0416132 0.033861
yhhinc 0.35940589 3.43178e-05 3.28081e-05
ywphh 0.34794705 -1.12386 1.01148
ypimpcp 0.34167942 0.0025586 0.00254316
netexp 0.33300236 0.36895 0.343296
yzlit 0.32498972 0.0155146 0.0147002
ygdpwnw 0.29207130 3.72298e-05 4.15054e-05
yzlifewom 0.28541485 0.0348371 0.0362404
yzpop 0.27980459 -0.000774238 0.000816647
ydth65 0.26315863 -0.00180884 0.00198994
gdpperca 0.26070686 0.082918 0.0800293
covidcasesfeb2021 0.25970882 6.29817 4.81305
yzlifemen 0.25861037 0.0410799 0.045729
coviddeathsfeb2021 0.25491355 0.124608 0.100283
prisrv3 0.24826431 0.639419 0.679874
prod 0.23190030 1.99594 2.38818
prisv 0.22989798 0.707249 0.790946
ypubdt3 0.20268407 0.030949 0.035182
yimpcap 0.18990743 0.000157035 0.000198181
ytrdcap 0.18976745 7.60843e-05 9.60631e-05
yexpcap 0.18959945 0.000147566 0.000186417
ypubdebt 0.17659647 0.041256 0.0482376
yjntdt3 0.14194186 0.0351416 0.0495214

The "R2" column tells you how much of the effect waste imports seem to
affect. So for the first line in the table (that is the% of GDP
that services shared between the public and private sector) about 75%
of the country-to-country variation in joint services are "predicted"
by similar country-to-country variation in waste imports (as indicated
by the rank -- where smaller numbers == higher levels of waste imports
and higher numbers == lower levels of waste imports).

The Beta column describes how much of the effect is affected by
changes in waste imports (rank). For joint services each increase in
rank (i.e. reduction in waste imports) results in about 0.6% more GDP
spent in public/private services.

The following lines describe other statistics to do with services in
the economies concerned. In all cases more waste imports result in
lower levels of services.

"popden" shows more waste predicts lower population density. More
waste imports seem to predict the relevant country is very crowded.

"netexp" shows those countries with more waste imports are the ones
that have the lowest net exports as pct GDP. Essentially
waste-importing countries are not making any money in the
international trade scene. The more they import, the less they
make. No wonder they have no govt services.

More waste imports also predicts lower literacy, lower female life
expectancy, lower male life expectancy, lower productivity, lower GDP
per capita, and higher death rates for people over 65.

Big waste importers have lower levels of international debt. Most
likely because no-one will lend them any money for development.

On the plus side waste importing countries have almost zero tourism
which means they have the lowest levels of COVID.

For the male lifex each rank in waste importing has 1/4 of a year
longer life. Since there are 20 ranks ("top20") this means the biggest
waste importers have 5 years less life for men than e.g. Sweden (at
rank 20). 5 years of lifex may not sound much but it's the difference
between being a "first world" country and a "pest hole".

The AI ensures all of these relationships are statistically
significant in at least 2 tests at 90% confidence. IOW there is about
1 chance in 10,000 these links found are just chance patterns in the
data. The links are "real".

Visit my kaggle page at <kaggle.com/kymhorsell1>. The "189" means I
was once ranked 189th (based on work submitted and graded by computers :)
in the approx 2,000,000 statisticians and scientists registered there
at the time.

--
[THANKYOU POLAND!]
Australia secures 1 mn more Pfizer vaccine doses from Poland
ABC News, 15 Aug 2021 01:44Z
Prime Minister Scott Morrison says young people in COVID affected parts of
Sydney will be given priority access to new doses of the Pfizer vaccine,
with the vaccines to begin arriving in Australia tonight.

What God, Quantum Mechanics and Consciousness Have in Common
Scientific American, 14 Aug 2021 14:37Z

[Sur-prise!]
Tropical Storm Grace's track shifts west, taking much of South Florida out
of its path
Yahoo News, 14 Aug 2021 22:15Z

Ahead of 'Operation Stay Home', police issue 529 infringement notices and
charge 29 over COVID breaches
ABC News, 15 Aug 2021 04:53Z
Thirty-one people are fined for holding a "public gathering" on cliffs in
Sydney's eastern suburbs as police vow to get tough on those breaking health
orders.

Victoria Police investigate 'pub crawl' and house party with 1,000 guests
invited
ABC News, 15 Aug 2021 07:05Z
More than 1,300 calls about breaches of coronavirus restrictions in Victoria
were made over the weekend, which police attribute to the warmer weather.

[New Record!]
Premier 'concerned' about Western Sydney as NSW records 415 new cases, 4 deaths
ABC News, 15 Aug 2021 01:43Z
NSW records 415 new COVID-19 cases and 4 deaths, bringing the total
number of fatalities during the current Delta outbreak to 48.

[Crackdown NSW:]
Thirty-one people fined for holding 'gathering' on cliffs in Sydney's
eastern suburbs
ABC News, 15 Aug 2021 03:29Z
Thirty-one people are fined for holding a "public gathering" on cliffs in
Sydney's eastern suburbs as police vow to get tough on those breaking health
orders.

Victoria records 25 new local COVID cases as virus spreads deeper into Melbourne
ABC News, 14 Aug 2021 22:47Z
The 25 new local infections were found from 32,286 test results, much lower
than the 40,000-mark authorities are aiming for.

'Unique marine discovery': Ten-year old boy becomes one of Australia's
youngest scientific authors
ABC News, 14 Aug 2021 22:47Z
Rehan Somaweera noticed about an unusual trait from a common octopus. His
curiosity saw him become one of Australia's youngest authors of a published
scientific paper.

COVID wastewater testing where there are 'always crocs'
ABC News, 14 Aug 2021 23:46Z
When Tony collects samples of wastewater for coronavirus testing in Darwin's
northern suburbs, he needs to - quite literally - keep one eye peeled for
crocodiles.

'A perfect way to start a Sun': Queensland records zero new locally
acquired COVID cases
ABC News, 15 Aug 2021 0:45Z
Queensland records zero locally acquired COVID-19 cases overnight as the
state further tightens its border controls on New South Wales border zone
residents as the southern state's outbreak creeps closer.

With few forms delivered, many residents in this remote community knew
nothing about the census
ABC Kimberley, 15 Aug 2021 01:40Z
Local worker shortages and COVID restrictions preventing fly-in census staff
are blamed for forms not reaching many people in Western Australia's north.
[This census went a bit smoother than the last one where no-one could
complete the online form until weeks after the supposed legal deadline
because no-one seems to have tested the system before it went live for
20 mn people. This time was better. But only slightly. The govt
site no longer supports browsers that are more than 5y old and will
not even connect to browsers that are more than 10y old. And don't get
me started on the design of the form itself].