Jan-May 2021: 232 weather fatalities; y trending to be 5th deadliest: NOAA StormEvents

[MrPosti...@kymhorsell.com]

The NOAA has updated its "weather fatalities" database to the end of
May 2021 (the update is stamped 18 Aug 2021). The fatality data is
part of the Storm Events database that is in turn part of NOAA's
Severe Weather Data Inventory (SWDI).

Already the fatalities for the first 5 m of the year indicate the
total for 2021 will exceed 2020 by around 30%.

The top 10 most fatal years (with no adjustment for technology
improvements that make 1 death the equivalent of dozens in e.g. 1950)
looks like:

Year Weather fatalities
2011 1096
1999 907
2008 736
2018 736
1998 686
2005 604
<-- 2021 ~603?
1997 596
1996 545
2017 543
2003 537

Over the 70+ years of the dataseries about 38.5% of weather fatalities
occur in Jan-May. I.e. the rest of 2021 is expected to result in 232 *
(100-38.5)/38.5 = 371 more deaths. I.e. the total weather deaths for
2021 is expected at this point to be around 603, essentially a tie
with 2005 for 5th place.

Using nominal GDP as a proxy for technology improvement we can
calculate a better comparison of years by assuming X deaths in a past
year would be a fraction of that now because more money could have
been spent on adaptation and response. Adding in also the adjustment
for 2021 to take it to the expected full-year count we find the top 10
"adjustment" fatalities count looks like:


Year adj weather fatality count
2011 913 <-- superoutbreak year
2018 736
2021 603 #3
2008 582
2017 543
2015 516
1999 470
2012 466
2016 465
2020 460 #10


As in other years, the biggest single cause of weather fatalities in
2020-21 has been middle-aged men alone in their vehicle getting
getting trapped while crossing a flooded street or intersection.

Hence NOAA's often-seen warning on Twitter to "turn around and don't drown".

As part of other work I'm about to start breaking down weather
fatalities to allow a certain state govt to prevent at least some of
them with targeted advertising. As far as I can see at the moment I
am free to share some of the results on this Interweb thing. The main
thing I have in mind is a state-by-state breakdown of weather
fatalities with an A/I assisted search to see which are the main
demographic or other factors that lead to higher fatalities. And of
course voting patterns will form one of the "demographic factors".

--
Afghans evacuated by US after being told by Australia to send documents via
Kabul post
ABC News, 22 Aug 2021 23:38Z
The family of an Afghan interpreter who worked with Australian soldiers are
evacuated from Kabul by the US Air Force, after struggling to complete
Australian visa applications and fearing Taliban reprisals.

[Time to relax!]
Premier flags easing COVID restrictions as NSW nears 6 mn jabs target,
records 818 new cases [and another 3 deaths]
ABC News, 23 Aug 2021 01:36Z
NSW records 818 new locally acquired COVID-19 cases in the 24 hours to
8:00pm yesterday.

'We have to move forward': Prime Minister fights back against state
hesitancy to end COVID-19 lockdowns
ABC News, 23 Aug 2021 01:36Z
State leaders who are hesitant to end lockdowns once the country reaches its
COVID-19 vaccination targets are warned by the Prime Minister they will do
more harm than good.

A 'soft lockdown' and 400 cases a day -- one expert's plan B if Victoria's
restrictions fail
ABC News, 22 Aug 2021 23:39Z
A leading epidemiologist suggests Victoria could use a "soft lockdown" as a
bridging measure to higher vaccination coverage, if the current lockdown
fails to crush the outbreak. The state has recorded 71 new COVID-19 cases,
49 of whom are linked to known outbreaks.

Pfizer to be offered to all Australians aged 12 and over on the NDIS
ABC News, 23 Aug 2021 01:35Z
Australians aged 12 and over who are on the National Disability Insurance
Scheme will be eligible to receive a Pfizer vaccine from this week.
[Why not AZ?]

[Growing!]
NZ records 35 new cases, as Delta outbreak climbs to 107
ABC News, 23 Aug 2021 01:41Z
New Zealand health authorities announce another 35 cases of community
transmission in the country's COVID-19 outbreak.

Tennessee Flash Floods Kill at Least 22, Dozens Missing
New York Magazine, 23 Aug 2021 02:21Z
Disastrous flash floods in central Tennessee on Sat devastated the
town of Waverly, where authorities expect the death ...
[17" of rain recorded some places].

[New Record!]
Tropical Storm Henri makes landfall in coastal Rhode Island town after
breaking NYC rain record
USA TODAY on MSN.com, 23 Aug 2021 01:58Z
Hurricane Henri weakened to a tropical storm but remained a serious threat
to the northeastern US It made landfall in ...

Severe Flooding Threat for Tri-State Continues Into Mon As Henri Hovers
Over Tri-State
NBC New York, 23 Aug 2021 02:12Z
The worst of the winds may have missed the tri-state, but the extended heavy
rain is hitting the region hard - and will ...

Several Brooklyn streets submerged under water due to Tropical Storm Henri
News 12 New Jersey, 23 Aug 2021 01:33Z
Several streets are now under water in Brooklyn as the rain continues from
Tropical Storm Henri. Commuters should avoid ...

Richard managed to forge a COVID vaccine certificate. It took him 10 minutes
ABC Science, 22 Aug 2021 19:41Z
Near-perfect forgeries of the federal govt's COVID-19 vaccine digital
certificate can be made in 10 minutes using free software, a member of the
public has discovered.

[Spin!]
'Chicken Little is not required at times like this': Officials sought to
downplay Fraser Island bushfire, documents reveal
ABC News, 22 Aug 2021 19:40Z
When a bushfire raged through Fraser Island (K'gari) in 2020, a high-ranking
Queensland Parks bureaucrat downplayed messages to the public and was
worried visitors wouldn't make Christmas bookings, internal emails reveal.

'Gives our farmers confidence': Working visa for foreigners to begin next month
ABC News, 22 Aug 2021 21:39Z
The visa, which could provide a pathway to permanent residency, had been
opposed by some Liberals, so its confirmation is considered a major victory
for the Nationals in support of farming, fisheries, forestry and meat
processing.

BREAKING (23 Aug): The DFAT has reportedly reversed its decision and will
offer visas to Afghans who guarded the AUS embassy in Kabul for the
past 20y. An ABC investigation found about 100 guards who had applied
for visas to escape Taliban retribution were sent a form letter saying
they were not eligible for visas under Australia's program to assist
nationals that were former employees and they should seek assistance from
migration agents. After the story aired on TV last night the federal
govt was quick to reverse the decision and will now give the guards asylum.
The problem will now be how to get out of the country as the Taliban take
over the reigns of power.