Thanks for all the thinking outside the box...
The calibration resistor seems like the most likely scenario.
There is some PTC. If I cool the tip, the current goes up somewhat.
Looks like all I need is a variable voltage source.
Where'd I put that box of old laptop power supplies???
It gets hot enough to melt solder on 12V, but haven't determined
whether it puts out enough heat to do real soldering work at 12V.
As for the IR sensor, yes, that's done.
I have some industrial grade hot air handpieces that have a sensor
outside the air path pointed at the heating element.
If you restrict the air flow, the element glows brighter for an instant,
then throttles back.