On Sat, 12 Nov 2016 13:02:58 -0500, bitrex
<
bit...@de.lete.earthlink.net> wrote:
>On 11/12/2016 12:50 PM, John Larkin wrote:
>> On Sat, 12 Nov 2016 07:14:05 -0500, bitrex
>> <
bit...@de.lete.earthlink.net> wrote:
>>
>>> On 11/12/2016 06:54 AM,
bill....@ieee.org wrote:
>>>> On Saturday, November 12, 2016 at 5:30:33 PM UTC+11, John Larkin wrote:
>>>>> On Fri, 11 Nov 2016 23:34:49 -0500, bitrex
>>>>> <
bit...@de.lete.earthlink.net> wrote:
>>>>>
>>>>>> The most shocking part of the Trump victory is the realization that Newt
>>>>>> Gingrich is somehow still among the land of the living. I mean
>>>>>> seriously, who knew?
>>>>>>
>>>>>
>>>>> What is shocking to me about this election is how many people, highly
>>>>> paid experts, journalists, researchers, managers, were so wrong. Over
>>>>> a billion dollars wrong. Tens of millions of votes wrong.
>>>>>
>>>>> Just as so much "science" is wrong.
>>>>>
>>>>> Imagine the bunglers and back-stabbers of the Clinton team, who were
>>>>> brutally wrong, who confidentally expected over 300 electoral votes,
>>>>> who were sure that Pensylvania and Florida and Wisconsin were in the
>>>>> bag, managing the economy and government and military of the USA.
>>>>>
>>>>> Wrongness the the true hallmark of our times.
>>>>
>>>> And John Larkin is the man of the moment.
>>>>
>>>> Nate Silver did point out that he was assessing probabilities. While a victory for Clinton did look more probable than one for Trump the odds were no better than 2:1 and that in his sports predictions those sort of odds left the predicted winner losing once in roughly three events.
>>>>
>>>> After the event it's easy to claim that the odds were wrong, and Brexit does suggest an explanation. Some commentators drew attention to the Brexit misprediction before the election. UK and US working-class politics are wildly different, but both groups are facing a lot of unemployment, and are consequently susceptible to anti-immigrant lies.
>>>>
>>>
>>> Yeah, the odds were off because even what you might call the "limousine
>>> Conservatives", whose ideology is one of free markets, fiscal restraint,
>>> and smaller government, were detached from just how White Pride the
>>> Conservative base really was.
>>>
>>
>> The election was swung by individuals who voted for Barack Obama last
>> time, and voted for Donald Trump this time.
>
>You don't seem to recognize that this is a red herring to the actual
>issue, and in fact sort of proves my point: US elections for the past 25
>years or so have often been decided by what is a finally _trivial_
>number of voters in "swing states."
>
>I can't speak to the reasons for why a bunch of perpetually undecided
>Florida and Ohio voters do what they do - they may not even understand
>themselves. What I'm speaking to is the ~45 million voters who vote for
>Conservative candidates every single election, be it Reagan, Romney,
>McCain, Trump, or the Grand Pubah of Zanzibar, so long as they have the
>color red on their logo, and from all indications turned out in larger
>than expected numbers to support this guy than the previous two.
>
>
http://www.lifenews.com/2016/11/09/largest-evangelical-turnout-in-history-helps-donald-trump-defeat-pro-abortion-hillary-clinton/
>
>But why this time and not last? Certainly Barack Obama was every bit as
>pro-abortion as Hillary Clinton.
>
>Oh, and DT has stated he never once asked God for forgiveness, either.
>
>Can you imagine guys in lifted trucks flying Confederate flags driving
>around celebrating with Mitt Romney flags hanging from their windows as
>if they personally won Desert Storm?
>
>Hmm.
There may be a few guys in trucks flying Rebel flags; some of those
may be sincere, some may be funded by Soros. I believe they have a
legal right to drive and wave flags, whoever is paying for it.
The people who are burning Portland and Oakland and LA do not have a
legal right to do so.