On Thu, 2 Dec 2021 18:02:40 -0800 (PST), Anthony William Sloman
Koonin's claims are about how accurately and completely the IPCC's
summaries reflect the peer-reviewed articles cited by the IPCC. Koonin
makes no claim about the accuracy of this cited articles.
>> >> What I like about Koonin is that he provides detailed cites to the
>> >> same peer-reviewed articles that the IPCC itself cited as the source
>> >> for this or that summary chart, while pointing out where the summary
>> >> left much context and perspective out.
>> >
>> >But the Amazon review I cited pointed out where Koonin had left out context and perspective. If you concentrate on areas where text-chopping will work well, you can produce a short and ostensibly well written book. It's easier to be deceptive when you can leave out most of the detail.
>>
>> Even if true, irrelevant. Check the cites and know the answer.
>
>More work than the subject deserves.
>
>> >> Given those cites, one can go back to the underlying articles and get the rest of the story, and verify or refute Koonin's take, without resort to ad-hominem arguments. You do not need to trust him, or care about his motives, however evil. Just check the cited articles.
>> >
>> >A heroic task.
>>
>> Not at all. One need not read the entire literature, which is immense, which makes such an approach impossible.
>
>Climate scientists do have to read the entire literature, or at least a representative sample. Getting a Ph.D. in a subject involves writing a literature review, which takes a lot of work - mine certainly did,
As they may well have done. But the issue here is how an ordinary
citizen can cross check the claims made in the IPCC summaries.
>> One need only randomly check the cited articles and decide if the cited summaries are in fact a correct summary. And there are not all that many to check, and these are precisely those chosen by the IPCC , as supporting various points in the big summaries that come out every
>> five years or so.
>
>But first I'd have to read the book, and the critical Amazon review makes it fairly clear what I'd find.
What a terrible burden.
>> > Climate change has been an interesting topic for more than a century now
>> >
>> >
https://history.aip.org/climate/timeline.htm
>> >
>> >starts off with Joseph Fourier in 1824. Voluminous collection of data didn't really get under way until computers became ubiquitous.
>> Not to mention observation satellites and weather radar networks.
>>
>> Arrhenius solved it:
>>
>> .<
https://www.rsc.org/images/Arrhenius1896_tcm18-173546.pdf>
>
>And if you had read a bit more, you'd realise that Arrhenius came up with a correct hypothesis, but not one that was supported by what was known about the infra-red absorbtion spectrum of CO2 in the gas phase at the time, which wasn't up to resolving the rotational fine structure of the spectrum - each vibrational absorbtion line can be resolved into a series of sharp lines - the P, Q and R branches - and those sharp lines have much higher extinction coefficients than the unressolved vibrational absorbtion appear s to have at lower resolution. Arrhenius's hypothesis didn't fit the data that was available at the time.
He solved the long-standing problem of why the Earth was not an ice
ball from what was then known, causing the IR transmission spectrum to
become the focus of scientific effort, and his predictions were
ultimately borne out.
>> >Climate change denial - as a reaction to the more detailed and worrying data - didn't get under way until the 1990's.
>>
>> Yeah. In the 1970s, the worry was about Global Cooling, which later gave way to Global Warming, which gave way to Climate Change.
>
>Global Cooling wasn't a "worry". It was just something journalists - and occasional scientists looking for attention - speculated about.
Nahh. Global Cooling was being thundered from the rooftops in the
1970s, and the journalists echoed the thunder. There was talk about
Great Britain being reduced to the climate of Siberia. Opinion was
divided on if this would be a good thing or bad thing.
But, time for original sources. The NYT published a summary on 21 May
1975 titled "Scientists Ask Why World Climate Is Changing". Global
Cooling was a real scientific theory, but was being superseded.
.<
https://timesmachine.nytimes.com/timesmachine/1975/05/21/80043535.html?pageNumber=45>
Scientists Ask Why World Climate Is Changing - Major Cooling May Be
Ahead - Scientists Ponder Why World's Climate Is Changing - a Major
Cooling Widely Considered to Be Inevitable
>Global Warming superseded it as more data began to accumulate. Even in the 1980's it was more a speculation than any kind of warning, but as the data built up it got to the point where Al Gore could put together the story he was getting from his scientific acquaintances and publish
>
>
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth_in_the_Balance
>
>in 1992. You want to equate the occasional speculations about global cooling with what we now know about anthropogenic global warming, which is a typical denialist device to minimise the extent of our current knowledge, not to mention the seriousness of the problem.
Actually, Koonin has better scientific credentials than Al Gore, by a
country mile.
Well, we have achieved our usual cycle.
Joe Gwinn