What is the rate of hospitalization, vaccinated vs. unvaccinated?

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amdx

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Sep 13, 2021, 8:01:08 PMSep 13
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I heard on one news show 90% Unvaccinated and 10% Vaccinated.

Talked to my Unvacinated neighbor, he says it's 50% / 50%.

                                                      Mikek



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Lasse Langwadt Christensen

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Sep 13, 2021, 8:27:32 PMSep 13
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tirsdag den 14. september 2021 kl. 02.01.08 UTC+2 skrev amdx:
> I heard on one news show 90% Unvaccinated and 10% Vaccinated.
>
> Talked to my Unvacinated neighbor, he says it's 50% / 50%.
>

as I understand the latest CDC number the number hospitalized might be
down to 66% from 90% because of delta, but close to 90% of those who die were not vaccinated ...

Don Y

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Sep 13, 2021, 8:39:19 PMSep 13
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On 9/13/2021 5:00 PM, amdx wrote:
> I heard on one news show 90% Unvaccinated and 10% Vaccinated.
>
> Talked to my Unvacinated neighbor, he says it's 50% / 50%.

From <https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7034e5.htm>
(first hit; I'm not doing exhaustive research)

"Among 43,127 reported SARS-CoV-2 infections in Los Angeles County residents
aged ≥16 years, 10,895 (25.3%) were in fully vaccinated persons, 1,431 (3.3%)
were in partially vaccinated persons, and 30,801 (71.4%) were in unvaccinated
persons."

"Much lower percentages of fully vaccinated persons infected with SARS-CoV-2
were hospitalized (3.2%), were admitted to an intensive care unit (0.5%), and
required mechanical ventilation (0.2%) compared with partially vaccinated
persons (6.2%, 1.0%, and 0.3%, respectively) and unvaccinated persons (7.6%,
1.5%, and 0.5%, respectively) (p<0.001 for all comparisons)."


| Vaccinated | Unvaccinated | Partial
==================|===================|===================|================
Infections: | 10895 | 30801 | 1431
Hospitalizations: | 3.2%(10895) 349 | 7.6%(30801) 1910 | 6.2%(1431) 89
ICU admissions: | 0.5%(10895) 54 | 1.5%(30801) 308 | 1.0%(1431) 14
Ventilated: | 0.2%(10895) 21 | 0.5%(30801) 92 | 0.3%(1431) 4

So, I guess your neighbor considers 349 vaccinated to be roughly equivalent
to 1910 unvaccinated. I'm not sure I have much faith in your school systems,
there!

Note, also, that the folks who were vaccinated are likely older (more prone
to severe illness) and were likely vaccinated EARLY ON in the rollout.

Don Y

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Sep 13, 2021, 9:01:43 PMSep 13
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On 9/13/2021 5:39 PM, Don Y wrote:
> | Vaccinated | Unvaccinated | Partial
> ==================|===================|===================|================
> Infections: | 10895 | 30801 | 1431
> Hospitalizations: | 3.2%(10895) 349 | 7.6%(30801) 1910 | 6.2%(1431) 89
> ICU admissions: | 0.5%(10895) 54 | 1.5%(30801) 308 | 1.0%(1431) 14
> Ventilated: | 0.2%(10895) 21 | 0.5%(30801) 92 | 0.3%(1431) 4

Ugh! I swapped the columns around while doing the math (so computed
percentages of the wrong subpopulations):

> | Vaccinated | Unvaccinated | Partial
> ==================|===================|===================|================
> Infections: | 10895 | 30801 | 1431
> Hospitalizations: | 3.2%(10895) 349 | 7.6%(30801) 2340 | 6.2%(1431) 89
> ICU admissions: | 0.5%(10895) 54 | 1.5%(30801) 462 | 1.0%(1431) 14
> Ventilated: | 0.2%(10895) 21 | 0.5%(30801) 154 | 0.3%(1431) 4

Flyguy

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Sep 13, 2021, 9:14:52 PMSep 13
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What I want to know is what is the rate of vaccinated vs those with natural immunity (i.e. those that have already contracted COVID)?

Don Y

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Sep 13, 2021, 9:41:33 PMSep 13
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On 9/13/2021 5:00 PM, amdx wrote:
> I heard on one news show 90% Unvaccinated and 10% Vaccinated.
>
> Talked to my Unvacinated neighbor, he says it's 50% / 50%.

Another reference that puts the lie to that statement, on a
state-by-state basis:

<https://www.kff.org/policy-watch/covid-19-vaccine-breakthrough-cases-data-from-the-states/>

Arizona being the worst with ~6% of covid cases among the vaccinated.
(that's still 16 times better than the unvaccinated population)

A whopping ~3% of deaths from covid are among the fully vaccinated
in Montana! I guess the takeaway is that those folks should move
to CT if they want to survive? Or, Joisey!

Martin Brown

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Sep 14, 2021, 4:42:57 AMSep 14
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On 14/09/2021 01:00, amdx wrote:
> I heard on one news show 90% Unvaccinated and 10% Vaccinated.
>
> Talked to my Unvacinated neighbor, he says it's 50% / 50%.
>
>                                                       MikekI

In the USA the odds are stacked against the unvaccinated since they are
also the most likely ones who ignore safety measures to prevent spread.

In the UK where adult first dose is now at 90% and double dose at 80%
the hospitalisation statistics are about 60% fully vaccinated 40% not.
The chances of dying there are heavily skewed against the unvaccinated.

The respective death rates are radically different. In the most recent
wave out of 51000 deaths only 256 were double vaccinated and many of
*them* had serious pre-existing health conditions. The average age of
vaccine breakthrough deaths was 84. ONS has just published a whole bunch
of statistics on UK experience with Covid in the post vaccination era.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-58545548

The UK government are due to announce the roll out of third vaccinations
for the elderly and most vulnerable today. It seems that waning of Covid
immunity is real and that is going to be a problem going forwards.

Annual boosters may be on the cards for those eligible and at risk.
(at least in the first world)

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

amdx

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Sep 14, 2021, 7:11:53 AMSep 14
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On 9/13/2021 10:50 PM, asdf wrote:
> On Mon, 13 Sep 2021 19:00:58 -0500, amdx wrote:
>
>> I heard on one news show 90% Unvaccinated and 10% Vaccinated.
> Southern EU here: 92% to 96% hospitalized are unvaccinated,
> the rest vaccinated.
>
>> Talked to my Unvacinated neighbor, he says it's 50% / 50%.
> I'd be curious to read where they pulled those numbers from.
> 100% sure is not a reputable source.

Oh, I'm sure it's not also. My neighbor is a good ole boy Southern
redneck and has what

I would call, "some funny ideas."  I doubt I will be able to convince
him to get vaccinated,

but I did print a page from that Kaiser Foundation paper about who is
being hospitalized.

Tom Gardner

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Sep 14, 2021, 8:11:33 AMSep 14
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On 14/09/21 01:00, amdx wrote:
> I heard on one news show 90% Unvaccinated and 10% Vaccinated.
>
> Talked to my Unvacinated neighbor, he says it's 50% / 50%.

Monitoring Incidence of COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and
Deaths, by Vaccination Status — 13 U.S. Jurisdictions,
April 4–July 17, 2021
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7037e1.htm

Key pretty pictures:
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/social-media/mm7037e1_HospitalizationDeathVaccineStatus_IMAGE_10Sept21_1200x675-medium.jpg?_=69823
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/figures/mm7037e1-F2-large.gif?_=79881

Robert Latest

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Sep 14, 2021, 9:16:14 AMSep 14
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asdf wrote:
> On Mon, 13 Sep 2021 19:00:58 -0500, amdx wrote:
>
>> I heard on one news show 90% Unvaccinated and 10% Vaccinated.
>
> Southern EU here: 92% to 96% hospitalized are unvaccinated,
> the rest vaccinated.
>
>> Talked to my Unvacinated neighbor, he says it's 50% / 50%.
>
> I'd be curious to read where they pulled those numbers from.
> 100% sure is not a reputable source.

These numbers don't say anything meaningful. The higher the vaccination rate,
the higher the fraction of vaccinated among the sick. In a 100% vaccinated
population, you'd have 100% vaccinated (breakthrough) cases in the hospital.

Don Y

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Sep 14, 2021, 9:25:48 AMSep 14
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Yet the opposite is what's happening -- the smaller population
(unvaccinated) is feeding more of the cases, hospitalizations,
ICU beds, ventilators use and death.

Martin Brown

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Sep 14, 2021, 9:39:56 AMSep 14
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That is also what is happening in the UK - I remembered what the chief
medical officer first announced and not that he corrected himself later.

60% of UK hospitalised Covid cases are from the unvaccinated 10% and
that the other 40% from the fully vaccinated 90%. Even more startling is
that ONS has established that of the 51k deaths analysed in the latest
Covid wave only 256 of them were in people with a double vaccination.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-vaccine-deaths-coronavirus-cases-b1919002.html

That is in practice somewhat better than the expected survival ratio.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

Don Y

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Sep 14, 2021, 10:18:34 AMSep 14
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On 9/14/2021 6:39 AM, Martin Brown wrote:
> On 14/09/2021 14:25, Don Y wrote:
>> On 9/14/2021 6:16 AM, Robert Latest wrote:
>>> asdf wrote:
>>>> On Mon, 13 Sep 2021 19:00:58 -0500, amdx wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> I heard on one news show 90% Unvaccinated and 10% Vaccinated.
>>>>
>>>> Southern EU here: 92% to 96% hospitalized are unvaccinated,
>>>> the rest vaccinated.
>>>>> Talked to my Unvacinated neighbor, he says it's 50% / 50%.
>>>>
>>>> I'd be curious to read where they pulled those numbers from.
>>>> 100% sure is not a reputable source.
>>>
>>> These numbers don't say anything meaningful. The higher the vaccination rate,
>>> the higher the fraction of vaccinated among the sick. In a 100% vaccinated
>>> population, you'd have 100% vaccinated (breakthrough) cases in the hospital.
>>
>> Yet the opposite is what's happening -- the smaller population
>> (unvaccinated) is feeding more of the cases, hospitalizations,
>> ICU beds, ventilators use and death.
>
> That is also what is happening in the UK - I remembered what the chief medical
> officer first announced and not that he corrected himself later.
>
> 60% of UK hospitalised Covid cases are from the unvaccinated 10% and that the
> other 40% from the fully vaccinated 90%. Even more startling is that ONS has
> established that of the 51k deaths analysed in the latest Covid wave only 256
> of them were in people with a double vaccination.

The proportions of vaccinated/unvaccinated are skewed much more, here,
against the unvaccinated. The (*fully* as "single jab" is effectively
"no jab") vaccinated that are seeing issues are those that are older,
got the vaccine earlier and/or have/had underlying health issues.

The unvaccinated that are finding themselves in trouble are younger and
healthier.

> That is in practice somewhat better than the expected survival ratio.

(reference follows)

"The study’s main findings were that people who were vaccinated against
COVID-19 experienced normal to low severity in side effects whereas those
who became infected with COVID-19 experienced far more adverse symptoms
in addition to the side effects experienced with the COVID-19 vaccine."

(so, immunity gained through "natural" infection comes at a considerably
higher cost -- ignoring, of course, the cost of lost time, medical care and
longer term quality of life issues)

"For instance, people who were vaccinated experienced 2.7 events of heart
inflammation out of 100,000 in comparison to 11.0 events of heart inflammation
out of 100,000 for unvaccinated people who were infected with COVID-19."

"Researchers also noted those who were unvaccinated experienced higher cases
of arrhythmia (166.1 events per 100,000 persons), acute kidney injury (125.4
events), pulmonary embolism (61.7 events), deep-vein thrombosis (43.0 events),
myocardial infarction (25.1 events), pericarditis (10.9 events) and
intracranial hemorrhage (7.6 events). "

(Ooops! So much for that untested vaccine! Hurry, hurry! Catch your
covid while supplies last!!)

"Apart from the previous symptoms associated with COVID-19 highlighted in the
Israel study, another study published on July 15 in the medical journal "The
Lancet" found more than 200 symptoms affecting 10 organ systems for an extended
period in people who were infected with the novel coronavirus."

(Gee, hard enough to get an organ transplant -- and a significant impact
on your immune system, forever thereafter! -- so let's see if we can
increase the chances of needing one! Sounds like a great strategy!)

Ooooo.... FOX News! Raw meat for the covidiots!

<https://www.ktvu.com/news/potential-covid-19-vaccine-side-effects-are-more-common-in-actual-infection>

And, with a dozen named variants in <24 months, how long before one
comes along that is a BIGGER problem? And, how UN-likely will it be that
those VACCINATED bear the brunt of that outbreak?

Gotta wonder what's going through folks' minds as they NOW think about getting
vaccinated -- and realize it will be ~6 wks from their first shot before
they can begin to rest "less worriedly"?

whit3rd

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Sep 14, 2021, 3:24:49 PMSep 14
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On Monday, September 13, 2021 at 6:14:52 PM UTC-7, Flyguy wrote:

> What I want to know is what is the rate of vaccinated vs those with natural immunity (i.e. those that have already contracted COVID)?

Impossible to get that data, because 'have already contracted' is not generally known (lots of asymptomatic
infections). And, not useful data for any purpose... the various vaccines, and 'natural immunity',
are all measurable, but ... why would anyone CARE? Get the first vaccine available, is the best plan.

Robert Latest

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Sep 14, 2021, 3:47:02 PMSep 14
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Sure -- as long as not everybody is vaccinated, the few unvaccinated are
disproportionately overreporesented in ICU population because they're much more
likely to catch the disease.

Don Y

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Sep 14, 2021, 3:52:15 PMSep 14
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Isn't that the whole point of vaccination? To DECREASE the odds/severity
of the disease in the vaccinated population?

Do note the types of VACCINATED people with breakthrough infections
(i.e., the same group that likely would have DIED, previously) and
contrast that with the group of UNVACCINATED people suffering from
it (much younger and healthier).

boB

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Sep 15, 2021, 1:02:32 AMSep 15
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On Mon, 13 Sep 2021 17:39:13 -0700, Don Y
<blocked...@foo.invalid> wrote:

>On 9/13/2021 5:00 PM, amdx wrote:
>> I heard on one news show 90% Unvaccinated and 10% Vaccinated.
>>
>> Talked to my Unvacinated neighbor, he says it's 50% / 50%.
>
> From <https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7034e5.htm>
>(first hit; I'm not doing exhaustive research)
>
>"Among 43,127 reported SARS-CoV-2 infections in Los Angeles County residents
>aged ?16 years, 10,895 (25.3%) were in fully vaccinated persons, 1,431 (3.3%)
>were in partially vaccinated persons, and 30,801 (71.4%) were in unvaccinated
>persons."
>
>"Much lower percentages of fully vaccinated persons infected with SARS-CoV-2
>were hospitalized (3.2%), were admitted to an intensive care unit (0.5%), and
>required mechanical ventilation (0.2%) compared with partially vaccinated
>persons (6.2%, 1.0%, and 0.3%, respectively) and unvaccinated persons (7.6%,
>1.5%, and 0.5%, respectively) (p<0.001 for all comparisons)."
>
>
> | Vaccinated | Unvaccinated | Partial
>==================|===================|===================|================
>Infections: | 10895 | 30801 | 1431
>Hospitalizations: | 3.2%(10895) 349 | 7.6%(30801) 1910 | 6.2%(1431) 89
>ICU admissions: | 0.5%(10895) 54 | 1.5%(30801) 308 | 1.0%(1431) 14
>Ventilated: | 0.2%(10895) 21 | 0.5%(30801) 92 | 0.3%(1431) 4
>
>So, I guess your neighbor considers 349 vaccinated to be roughly equivalent
>to 1910 unvaccinated. I'm not sure I have much faith in your school systems,
>there!
>
>Note, also, that the folks who were vaccinated are likely older (more prone
>to severe illness) and were likely vaccinated EARLY ON in the rollout.


Then there is the children who don't get vaccinated and are a bit
better at being asymptomatic after being infected with covid.

I'm surprised that did not include death.



Don Y

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Sep 15, 2021, 2:27:51 AMSep 15
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I believe the fatalities figures were there -- I just didn't include them
as the question was in re: hospitalizations.

Martin Brown

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Sep 15, 2021, 6:31:19 AMSep 15
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On 14/09/2021 20:24, whit3rd wrote:
> On Monday, September 13, 2021 at 6:14:52 PM UTC-7, Flyguy wrote:
>
>> What I want to know is what is the rate of vaccinated vs those with natural immunity (i.e. those that have already contracted COVID)?

People who have had Covid naturally are able to catch it again as little
as 3 months after recovering from their first bout of illness. It seemed
to happen with monotonous regularity until the vaccine rollout for
people who were occupationally exposed.

Natural "immunity" wanes about twice as quickly as vaccine immunity -
the latter has various cofactors in to encourage the immune response.

The odd high profile individual like Duncan Scott has also had Covid
more than once and second time around much worse. It was touch and go at
if he would be fit enough to compete in the Olympics. He won Gold!

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/brit-swimmer-dean-beats-covid-twice-to-win-gold-at-olympics-duncan-scott-britain-tokyo-olympians-team-gb-b1891129.html

Remember that people experience Covid in radically different ways:

30% don't even know they have it - truly asymptomatic carriers
50% are ill enough to be off work (but not all of them take time off)
20% are seriously ill of which 10% end up in hospital and 1% dead.

Being vaccinated moves most of the latter category down a notch to being
merely quite poorly but not bad enough to need hospitalisation. Longer
term being vaccinated and also catching Covid might be enough to confer
a lasting immunity that reduces it to common cold status in the future.

That is pretty much how all the other human endemic coronaviruses have
eventually ended up. OC43 being the most recent one from the 1899 global
pandemic (and it is still quite lethal if it gets into care homes).

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

Don Y

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Sep 15, 2021, 6:57:35 AMSep 15
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On 9/15/2021 3:31 AM, Martin Brown wrote:

> People who have had Covid naturally are able to catch it again as little as 3
> months after recovering from their first bout of illness. It seemed to happen
> with monotonous regularity until the vaccine rollout for people who were
> occupationally exposed.

And, damage to the body is undoubtedly cumulative.

> Natural "immunity" wanes about twice as quickly as vaccine immunity - the
> latter has various cofactors in to encourage the immune response.
>
> The odd high profile individual like Duncan Scott has also had Covid more than
> once and second time around much worse. It was touch and go at if he would be
> fit enough to compete in the Olympics. He won Gold!
>
> Remember that people experience Covid in radically different ways:
>
> 30% don't even know they have it - truly asymptomatic carriers
> 50% are ill enough to be off work (but not all of them take time off)
> 20% are seriously ill of which 10% end up in hospital and 1% dead.

And a 10% chance of "long covid" for the unvaccinated. "Are we
done, yet?"

> Being vaccinated moves most of the latter category down a notch to being merely
> quite poorly but not bad enough to need hospitalisation. Longer term being
> vaccinated and also catching Covid might be enough to confer a lasting immunity
> that reduces it to common cold status in the future.

Though it could also become "yet another flu" -- with it's associated
mortality.

> That is pretty much how all the other human endemic coronaviruses have
> eventually ended up. OC43 being the most recent one from the 1899 global
> pandemic (and it is still quite lethal if it gets into care homes).

You're also glossing over the fact that folks who were unfortunate enough
(or careless enough?) to catch it the first time have a greater chance
of being similarly unfortunate (e.g., occupational exposure) or
careless ("attitude" problem) a second time.

Indeed, they may feel invincible (I beat it already!) or at least
immune to it and take greater risks.

I think much of the breakthrough infections are related to folks
thinking they were "safe" and could skip the precautions that
they'd previously embraced.

We have a good many friends who raced to resume their "old habits"
once vaccinated -- only to come down with infections, thereafter.
(many of them asymptomatic or mild but requiring self-quarantine,
nonetheless)

Our behavior hasn't changed, despite vaccination. We figure
the vaccination is the "belts and braces" backup for any
slip-ups in our normal discipline.

Sadly, I have a friend who caught it early on, when treatments
weren't as effective. He spent 6 (8?) weeks in the hospital
and a couple of months after release doing OT & PT. It's been
about a year and he still looks like hell... "haunted"; "old".
Job gone, few prospects (he's perpetually "tired" -- likely
poor oxygenation -- and suffers from an overall "weakness").
Shitty way to spend your "later years"...

It's hard to put a positive spin on it: "Well, at least you
didn't DIE!"

Robert Latest

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Sep 17, 2021, 2:07:56 AMSep 17
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Don Y wrote:
> On 9/14/2021 12:46 PM, Robert Latest wrote:
>> Sure -- as long as not everybody is vaccinated, the few unvaccinated are
>> disproportionately overreporesented in ICU population because they're much
>> more likely to catch the disease.
>
> Isn't that the whole point of vaccination? To DECREASE the odds/severity of
> the disease in the vaccinated population?

Of course it is. That's why I wrote that. The meaningless statement "Most Covid
patients in hospital XY were vaccinated" gets (deliberately) misread by
anti-vaxxers as "Most vaccinated people end up in the hospital with Covid."

Don Y

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Sep 17, 2021, 2:55:35 AMSep 17
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But most pts in hospital XY are UN-vaccinated. No way to misread *that*!
As long as there are unvaccinated hosts available, it is likely that this
will continue to be true.

Robert Latest

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Sep 17, 2021, 4:35:44 PMSep 17
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Don Y wrote:
> But most pts in hospital XY are UN-vaccinated. No way to misread *that*!
> As long as there are unvaccinated hosts available, it is likely that this
> will continue to be true.

Yes. Like I said.
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