OT: Omicron

[Cursitor Doom]

Gentlemen,

This newest variant of Covid has been dubbed omicron rather than
epsilon. If we're following the convention, why have we suddly jumped
so far from delta in the Greek alphabet? Anyone know?

CD.

--

"There are, besides, eternal truths, such as Freedom, Justice, etc., that are
common to all states of society. But Communism abolishes eternal truths, it
abolishes all religion,and all morality, instead of constituting them on a new
basis; it therefore acts in contradiction to all historical experience."

- The Communist Manifesto, Marx & Engels.

[Dean Hoffman]

<https://dailycaller.com/2021/11/27/world-health-organization-omicron-variant-nu-xi-coronavirus/>

[DecadentLinux...@decadence.org]

Cursitor Doom <c...@nowhere.com> wrote in
news:99k7qg5qp3pn8ad18...@4ax.com:

> Gentlemen,
>
> This newest variant of Covid has been dubbed omicron rather than
> epsilon. If we're following the convention, why have we suddly
> jumped so far from delta in the Greek alphabet? Anyone know?
>
> CD.
>

Variants were discovered and named that had no consequence or
outbreak... perhaps.

Your retardo manifucktardofesto is even more lame than you are. A
tough hurdle.

[Cursitor Doom]

But they skipped over *10* other letters in total, not just the 2
mentioned in the article!
--

"In one word, you reproach us with intending to do away with your property.
Precisely so; that is just what we intend."

[Rick C]

On Sunday, November 28, 2021 at 7:42:30 PM UTC-4, Cursitor Doom wrote:
> On Sun, 28 Nov 2021 11:11:24 -0800 (PST), Dean Hoffman
> <dean...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> >On Sunday, November 28, 2021 at 12:59:55 PM UTC-6, Cursitor Doom wrote:
> >> Gentlemen,
> >>
> >> This newest variant of Covid has been dubbed omicron rather than
> >> epsilon. If we're following the convention, why have we suddly jumped
> >> so far from delta in the Greek alphabet? Anyone know?
> >>
> >> CD.
> >>
> >> --
> >>
> >> "There are, besides, eternal truths, such as Freedom, Justice, etc., that are
> >> common to all states of society. But Communism abolishes eternal truths, it
> >> abolishes all religion,and all morality, instead of constituting them on a new
> >> basis; it therefore acts in contradiction to all historical experience."
> >>
> >> - The Communist Manifesto, Marx & Engels.
> >
> > <https://dailycaller.com/2021/11/27/world-health-organization-omicron-variant-nu-xi-coronavirus/>
> But they skipped over *10* other letters in total, not just the 2
> mentioned in the article!

It's not hard to find that they didn't skip anything other than those two. Previous variants of the virus have been named by all the prior letters in the Greek alphabet.

Seems they skipped Xi because it is a common last name (like some guy who's the leader of a really powerful country in the far east). I'm wondering why they didn't skip Omicron. I mean, do you really want to piss of this guy?

https://www.cc.com/video/ww32ir/futurama-interstellar-fugitives

--

Rick C.

- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

[Anthony William Sloman]

On Monday, November 29, 2021 at 10:42:30 AM UTC+11, Cursitor Doom wrote:
> On Sun, 28 Nov 2021 11:11:24 -0800 (PST), Dean Hoffman
> <dean...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
> >On Sunday, November 28, 2021 at 12:59:55 PM UTC-6, Cursitor Doom wrote:
> >> Gentlemen,
> >>
> >> This newest variant of Covid has been dubbed omicron rather than

> >> epsilon. If we're following the convention, why have we suddenly jumped

> >> so far from delta in the Greek alphabet? Anyone know?
> >

> > <https://dailycaller.com/2021/11/27/world-health-organization-omicron-variant-nu-xi-coronavirus/>
>
> But they skipped over *10* other letters in total, not just the 2 mentioned in the article!

Clearly, there have been eight other variants, none of which have shown up in sufficient volume to become variants of concern.

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

[Dimiter_Popoff]

I wonder what they will do after they have used the omega...

[Cursitor Doom]

On Mon, 29 Nov 2021 05:12:49 +0200, Dimiter_Popoff <d...@tgi-sci.com>
wrote:

We'll all be dead by then. One way or another...
--

"The Communists are further reproached with desiring to abolish countries
and nationality."

[Martin Brown]

On 28/11/2021 23:42, Cursitor Doom wrote:
> On Sun, 28 Nov 2021 11:11:24 -0800 (PST), Dean Hoffman
> <dean...@gmail.com> wrote:
>
>> On Sunday, November 28, 2021 at 12:59:55 PM UTC-6, Cursitor Doom wrote:
>>> Gentlemen,
>>>
>>> This newest variant of Covid has been dubbed omicron rather than
>>> epsilon. If we're following the convention, why have we suddly jumped
>>> so far from delta in the Greek alphabet? Anyone know?

>

> But they skipped over *10* other letters in total, not just the 2
> mentioned in the article!

A bit like with storms they have tagged each variant of concern with a
new Greek letter. The intervening ones have all been named but did not
propagate very widely having been utterly trounced in the infectivity
stakes by Alpha (aka Kent variant) and Delta (aka Indian variant) which
each went global and displaced most other strains in the process.

A handy side effect of this is that the characteristic pattern for alpha
on the PCR test (2 out of three tags show up) allows a quick scan for
the new nasty Omicron strain since it is sufficiently unlike Delta. UK
is seeing a few community infections in Scotland with no obvious
connection to Africa (we DNA sequence about 20% of all positive PCR tests)

Going forwards they will genetically sequence 100% of those that are
masquerading as Alpha (since they could be the new Omicron strain).

https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/coronavirus/delta-lambda-gamma-heres-a-breakdown-of-covid-variants-and-what-we-know-so-far/2591458/

There is a WHO list of the various strains somewhere. However for some
reason their most accessible list is incomplete. The wayback machine
will show you when the inbetweener variants were briefly a hot topic.
They mostly fell by the wayside when Delta and Delta+ went global.

https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/

CDC has the least incomplete list now that I have been able to find:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-info.html#anchor_1632150752495

They should probably be a bit more Spartan about giving them fancy names
until they have to be in the news. As one UK surgeon wryly put it this
morning - given how slowly the UK government has responded to the risk
of every previous strain you have to wonder if they know more about the
nastiness of the new Omicron strain than they are letting on.

Clearly one should be very worried when we get to the Omega strain.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

[Rick C]

On Monday, November 29, 2021 at 6:15:53 AM UTC-4, Martin Brown wrote:
> On 28/11/2021 23:42, Cursitor Doom wrote:
> > On Sun, 28 Nov 2021 11:11:24 -0800 (PST), Dean Hoffman
> > <dean...@gmail.com> wrote:
> >
> >> On Sunday, November 28, 2021 at 12:59:55 PM UTC-6, Cursitor Doom wrote:
> >>> Gentlemen,
> >>>
> >>> This newest variant of Covid has been dubbed omicron rather than
> >>> epsilon. If we're following the convention, why have we suddly jumped
> >>> so far from delta in the Greek alphabet? Anyone know?
>
> >
> > But they skipped over *10* other letters in total, not just the 2
> > mentioned in the article!
> A bit like with storms they have tagged each variant of concern with a
> new Greek letter. The intervening ones have all been named but did not
> propagate very widely having been utterly trounced in the infectivity
> stakes by Alpha (aka Kent variant) and Delta (aka Indian variant) which
> each went global and displaced most other strains in the process.

Can you explain the mechanics of how the infectiousness of one strain impacts the spread of another strain? How exactly is a strain of Covid-19 "displaced"?

If a person is infected predominantly by a given strain, they spread the disease based on the number of people they come in contact with and the degree by which they try to minimize the spread of the disease. There is no shortage of potential infectees so there is no competition at that level. To each strain of the virus the world is an all you can eat buffet and no waiting line.

--

Rick C.

+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

[Martin Brown]

On 29/11/2021 11:55, Rick C wrote:
> On Monday, November 29, 2021 at 6:15:53 AM UTC-4, Martin Brown
> wrote:
>> On 28/11/2021 23:42, Cursitor Doom wrote:
>>> On Sun, 28 Nov 2021 11:11:24 -0800 (PST), Dean Hoffman
>>> <dean...@gmail.com> wrote:
>>>
>>>> On Sunday, November 28, 2021 at 12:59:55 PM UTC-6, Cursitor
>>>> Doom wrote:
>>>>> Gentlemen,
>>>>>
>>>>> This newest variant of Covid has been dubbed omicron rather
>>>>> than epsilon. If we're following the convention, why have we
>>>>> suddly jumped so far from delta in the Greek alphabet? Anyone
>>>>> know?
>>
>>>
>>> But they skipped over *10* other letters in total, not just the
>>> 2 mentioned in the article!
>> A bit like with storms they have tagged each variant of concern
>> with a new Greek letter. The intervening ones have all been named
>> but did not propagate very widely having been utterly trounced in
>> the infectivity stakes by Alpha (aka Kent variant) and Delta (aka
>> Indian variant) which each went global and displaced most other
>> strains in the process.
>
> Can you explain the mechanics of how the infectiousness of one strain
> impacts the spread of another strain? How exactly is a strain of
> Covid-19 "displaced"?

R for the more infective strains Alpha and Delta are greater than one by
some margin over the other forms. After a few weeks the ratio of Delta
and/or Alpha to the lesser strains is around three orders of magnitude.
It is an effect of exponential growth or decay in real life.

Put another way the measures to try and contain the most infective
strains of the virus take R for the less infective strains below 1.

Table 3 (p12) in in the UK reports of genotype as a function of time
clearly display that Alpha and Delta between them have carved up the
territory. Alpha has not decayed away as much as I had thought though
(presently it is 80:20 for Delta whereas a month ago it was 25:75)

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1033101/Technical_Briefing_28_12_Nov_2021.pdf

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1030146/technical-briefing-24.pdf

> If a person is infected predominantly by a given strain, they spread
> the disease based on the number of people they come in contact with
> and the degree by which they try to minimize the spread of the
> disease. There is no shortage of potential infectees so there is no
> competition at that level. To each strain of the virus the world is
> an all you can eat buffet and no waiting line.

In the UK at least you are completely wrong. The measures put in place
to try and limit spread of Alpha and Delta have been more than adequate
to drive all but Beta into near total oblivion. Kappa was just clinging
on by its fingernails both were down at levels <0.1% of all UK cases.
The others were one or two more orders of magnitude lower still.

The most recent data no longer shows the same table. They are starting
to fret about the novel combinations present in Omicron and analysis is
concentrating on that with lots of incomprehensible coloured diagrams.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

[Rick C]

So the strains do not interact in any way. You are suggesting that the infectible population takes more effective measures to stop the spread of the disease. This is not competition. It would be useful to stop referring to it as such.

> > If a person is infected predominantly by a given strain, they spread
> > the disease based on the number of people they come in contact with
> > and the degree by which they try to minimize the spread of the
> > disease. There is no shortage of potential infectees so there is no
> > competition at that level. To each strain of the virus the world is
> > an all you can eat buffet and no waiting line.
> In the UK at least you are completely wrong. The measures put in place
> to try and limit spread of Alpha and Delta have been more than adequate
> to drive all but Beta into near total oblivion. Kappa was just clinging
> on by its fingernails both were down at levels <0.1% of all UK cases.
> The others were one or two more orders of magnitude lower still.

You contradict yourself. You say there is competition between strains and then show Alpha and Delta coexisting. Were the strains truly competing one of those two strains would have won out by now. The mechanism you describe is simply the disease competing with the actions of the hosts to prevent infection. Are you saying that if the delta and alpha strains were not present the public would behave in a way to maintain a high level of infection from other strains? In effect, public reaction is a control loop that maintains a high level of infection? Even if so, this is still not competition between strains.

The bottom line is the infection rates are a function of how well each strain survives in the environment. Competition occurs when the different strains interact, i.e. compete for a scarce resource. Infectible hosts for Covid-19 are not scarce. They exist at some level by which any given strain will survive or not. That's not competition between the strains.

> The most recent data no longer shows the same table. They are starting
> to fret about the novel combinations present in Omicron and analysis is
> concentrating on that with lots of incomprehensible coloured diagrams.

Data is scarce. Give it a few weeks. By Christmas we should know more about how many we can expect to be infected by Christmas.

--

Rick C.

-- Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-- Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

[Anthony William Sloman]

On Tuesday, November 30, 2021 at 12:55:02 AM UTC+11, gnuarm.del...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Monday, November 29, 2021 at 8:26:46 AM UTC-4, Martin Brown wrote:
> > On 29/11/2021 11:55, Rick C wrote:
> > > On Monday, November 29, 2021 at 6:15:53 AM UTC-4, Martin Brown wrote:
> > >> On 28/11/2021 23:42, Cursitor Doom wrote:
> > >>> On Sun, 28 Nov 2021 11:11:24 -0800 (PST), Dean Hoffman <dean...@gmail.com> wrote:
> > >>>> On Sunday, November 28, 2021 at 12:59:55 PM UTC-6, Cursitor Doom wrote:

<snip>

> > > Can you explain the mechanics of how the infectiousness of one strain
> > > impacts the spread of another strain? How exactly is a strain of
> > > Covid-19 "displaced"?
> >
> > R for the more infective strains Alpha and Delta are greater than one by
> > some margin over the other forms. After a few weeks the ratio of Delta
> > and/or Alpha to the lesser strains is around three orders of magnitude.
> > It is an effect of exponential growth or decay in real life.
> >
> > Put another way the measures to try and contain the most infective
> > strains of the virus take R for the less infective strains below 1.
> >
> > Table 3 (p12) in in the UK reports of genotype as a function of time
> > clearly display that Alpha and Delta between them have carved up the
> > territory. Alpha has not decayed away as much as I had thought though
> > (presently it is 80:20 for Delta whereas a month ago it was 25:75)
> >
> > https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1033101/Technical_Briefing_28_12_Nov_2021.pdf
> >
> > https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1030146/technical-briefing-24.pdf
>
> So the strains do not interact in any way. You are suggesting that the infectible population takes more effective measures to stop the spread of the disease.

The strains do interact - but only by getting the attention of the population and the public health advice-givers.

> This is not competition. It would be useful to stop referring to it as such.

It is exactly competition - each strain tries to infect as many people as it can get at. Lock-downs masking-wearing and getting vaccinated make it harder for the strains to infect new victims, but they al work equally well against every strain - the more infective strain still infects more of the people it can get at.

> > > If a person is infected predominantly by a given strain, they spread
> > > the disease based on the number of people they come in contact with
> > > and the degree by which they try to minimize the spread of the
> > > disease. There is no shortage of potential infectees so there is no
> > > competition at that level. To each strain of the virus the world is
> > > an all you can eat buffet and no waiting line.
> >
> > In the UK at least you are completely wrong. The measures put in place
> > to try and limit spread of Alpha and Delta have been more than adequate
> > to drive all but Beta into near total oblivion. Kappa was just clinging
> > on by its fingernails both were down at levels <0.1% of all UK cases.
> > The others were one or two more orders of magnitude lower still.
>
> You contradict yourself. You say there is competition between strains and then show Alpha and Delta coexisting. Were the strains truly competing one of those two strains would have won out by now.

That isn't how it works. Delta is more infectious than Alpha (though not spectacularly so) so more people end up with Delta than Alpha - after a month Delata was ahead by 4:1, when it started of behind by 3:1.

>The mechanism you describe is simply the disease competing with the actions of the hosts to prevent infection. Are you saying that if the delta and alpha strains were not present the public would behave in a way to maintain a high level of infection from other strains? In effect, public reaction is a control loop that maintains a high level of infection? Even if so, this is still not competition between strains.

More infections encourage people to take more care not to get infected. Health advice gets delivered more enthusiastically when the intensive care wards start to fill up.

> The bottom line is the infection rates are a function of how well each strain survives in the environment. Competition occurs when the different strains interact, i.e. compete for a scarce resource. Infectible hosts for Covid-19 are not scarce. They exist at some level by which any given strain will survive or not. That's not competition between the strains.

There's nothing active about the competition - everybody infected breathes out virus-loaded droplets. The more infectious strains need their victims to inhale fewer droplets to have an equal chance of getting infected.

> > The most recent data no longer shows the same table. They are starting
> > to fret about the novel combinations present in Omicron and analysis is
> > concentrating on that with lots of incomprehensible coloured diagrams.

> Data is scarce. Give it a few weeks. By Christmas we should know more about how many we can expect to be infected by Christmas.

There's loads of data around - in Europe and the US thousands get infected every day, and every last one is a data point. Not every positive PCR test gets followed up by sequencing the genome to find out which strain is involved - someone said about 10% were sequenced (at least in first world countries).

--
Bill Sloman, Sydney

[DecadentLinux...@decadence.org]

Rick C <gnuarm.del...@gmail.com> wrote in
news:ef5778ed-1698-493c...@googlegroups.com:

> Can you explain the mechanics of how the infectiousness of one
> strain impacts the spread of another strain? How exactly is a
> strain of Covid-19 "displaced"?
>

Testing showing D5 infections rising and other variants falling and
even disappearing.

Pretty easy math there. How'd you miss that simple common sense
observsation. And the CDC stats will confirm it. The others will die
out completely as D5 proliferates.

Now we have O and we have yet to see what it will do.

[Martin Brown]

You are stupid beyond measure if you cannot grasp the simple fact that
if two strains A, B have transmission rates of k and k(1+e) with e>1

The ratio of the number of cases B:A grows faster like (1+e)^N
*EXPONENTIALLY*

And yes *I AM SHOUTING*!
You are stupid beyond measure if you cannot grasp this basic point.

>>> If a person is infected predominantly by a given strain, they spread
>>> the disease based on the number of people they come in contact with
>>> and the degree by which they try to minimize the spread of the
>>> disease. There is no shortage of potential infectees so there is no
>>> competition at that level. To each strain of the virus the world is
>>> an all you can eat buffet and no waiting line.
>> In the UK at least you are completely wrong. The measures put in place
>> to try and limit spread of Alpha and Delta have been more than adequate
>> to drive all but Beta into near total oblivion. Kappa was just clinging
>> on by its fingernails both were down at levels <0.1% of all UK cases.
>> The others were one or two more orders of magnitude lower still.
>
> You contradict yourself. You say there is competition between strains and then show Alpha and Delta coexisting. Were the strains truly competing one of those two strains would have won out by now. The mechanism you describe is simply the disease competing with the actions of the hosts to prevent infection. Are you saying that if the delta and alpha strains were not present the public would behave in a way to maintain a high level of infection from other strains? In effect, public reaction is a control loop that maintains a high level of infection? Even if so, this is still not competition between strains.
>
> The bottom line is the infection rates are a function of how well each strain survives in the environment. Competition occurs when the different strains interact, i.e. compete for a scarce resource. Infectible hosts for Covid-19 are not scarce. They exist at some level by which any given strain will survive or not. That's not competition between the strains.

It doesn't have to be that scarce. The vaccine has seen off some of the
older strains almost completely in the UK. Just the odd sporadic
sighting. We sequence 20% of all hard positive PCR tests in the UK.
(only worth sequencing them if there is plenty of viral DNA)

The UK PCR test being used is also capable of tracking 4 strains of
concern at present in its own right. They check 3 loci and they are
chosen so that wild, Alpha, Delta and one other can be distinguished.

>> The most recent data no longer shows the same table. They are starting
>> to fret about the novel combinations present in Omicron and analysis is
>> concentrating on that with lots of incomprehensible coloured diagrams.
>
> Data is scarce. Give it a few weeks. By Christmas we should know more about how many we can expect to be infected by Christmas.

Most virologists think it will likely be extremely transmissible, able
to defeat one of the first line treatments and double dose vaccination.
They hope vaccination will make it less severe. It remains to be seen if
they are right. Minor levels of community transmission has been seen in
Scotland and elsewhere in Europe. So far most cases have been sporadic
associated with travel to and from Africa. Hence the travel restrictions
and isolation requirements (perhaps already too late). Latest is they
have traced it to a single event with all of the cases so far at it.

One big problem with exponential growth is that if you don't eliminate
every last case it only takes a very short period of time with an R~3 to
go to hell in a handcart. UK levels remain stable on a very high
baseline ~40k so we will really struggle to see it growing at first.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

[Rick C]

No one disputes that point. What you can't seem to grasp is that this simple fact has nothing to do with two strains "competing" with one another. The growth rate of one strain does not impact the growth rate of the other strain. That's what competition is.

"You are stupid beyond measure if you cannot grasp this basic point."


> >>> If a person is infected predominantly by a given strain, they spread
> >>> the disease based on the number of people they come in contact with
> >>> and the degree by which they try to minimize the spread of the
> >>> disease. There is no shortage of potential infectees so there is no
> >>> competition at that level. To each strain of the virus the world is
> >>> an all you can eat buffet and no waiting line.
> >> In the UK at least you are completely wrong. The measures put in place
> >> to try and limit spread of Alpha and Delta have been more than adequate
> >> to drive all but Beta into near total oblivion. Kappa was just clinging
> >> on by its fingernails both were down at levels <0.1% of all UK cases.
> >> The others were one or two more orders of magnitude lower still.
> >
> > You contradict yourself. You say there is competition between strains and then show Alpha and Delta coexisting. Were the strains truly competing one of those two strains would have won out by now. The mechanism you describe is simply the disease competing with the actions of the hosts to prevent infection. Are you saying that if the delta and alpha strains were not present the public would behave in a way to maintain a high level of infection from other strains? In effect, public reaction is a control loop that maintains a high level of infection? Even if so, this is still not competition between strains.
> >
> > The bottom line is the infection rates are a function of how well each strain survives in the environment. Competition occurs when the different strains interact, i.e. compete for a scarce resource. Infectible hosts for Covid-19 are not scarce. They exist at some level by which any given strain will survive or not. That's not competition between the strains.
> It doesn't have to be that scarce. The vaccine has seen off some of the
> older strains almost completely in the UK. Just the odd sporadic
> sighting. We sequence 20% of all hard positive PCR tests in the UK.
> (only worth sequencing them if there is plenty of viral DNA)

Yes, the VACCINE has seen off older strains. This has nothing to do with competition between strains.

> The UK PCR test being used is also capable of tracking 4 strains of
> concern at present in its own right. They check 3 loci and they are
> chosen so that wild, Alpha, Delta and one other can be distinguished.
> >> The most recent data no longer shows the same table. They are starting
> >> to fret about the novel combinations present in Omicron and analysis is
> >> concentrating on that with lots of incomprehensible coloured diagrams.
> >
> > Data is scarce. Give it a few weeks. By Christmas we should know more about how many we can expect to be infected by Christmas.
> Most virologists think it will likely be extremely transmissible, able
> to defeat one of the first line treatments and double dose vaccination.
> They hope vaccination will make it less severe. It remains to be seen if
> they are right. Minor levels of community transmission has been seen in
> Scotland and elsewhere in Europe. So far most cases have been sporadic
> associated with travel to and from Africa. Hence the travel restrictions
> and isolation requirements (perhaps already too late). Latest is they
> have traced it to a single event with all of the cases so far at it.
>
> One big problem with exponential growth is that if you don't eliminate
> every last case it only takes a very short period of time with an R~3 to
> go to hell in a handcart. UK levels remain stable on a very high
> baseline ~40k so we will really struggle to see it growing at first.

We can try to fight these strains, but with a significant fraction of the population unwilling to do what is required to prevent the spread of the disease until infection numbers rise dramatically, they act as a control loop maintaining minimum infection levels allowing new strains to develop. The fact that the wealthy countries aren't willing to do what is required to immunize the poorer countries is a big factor as well.

--

Rick C.

-+ Get 1,000 miles of free Supercharging
-+ Tesla referral code - https://ts.la/richard11209

[Ed Lee]

On Monday, November 29, 2021 at 1:48:02 AM UTC-8, Cursitor Doom wrote:
> On Mon, 29 Nov 2021 05:12:49 +0200, Dimiter_Popoff <d...@tgi-sci.com>
> wrote:
> >On 11/29/2021 3:00, Anthony William Sloman wrote:
> >> On Monday, November 29, 2021 at 10:42:30 AM UTC+11, Cursitor Doom wrote:
> >>> On Sun, 28 Nov 2021 11:11:24 -0800 (PST), Dean Hoffman
> >>> <dean...@gmail.com> wrote:
> >>>
> >>>> On Sunday, November 28, 2021 at 12:59:55 PM UTC-6, Cursitor Doom wrote:
> >>>>> Gentlemen,
> >>>>>
> >>>>> This newest variant of Covid has been dubbed omicron rather than
> >>>>> epsilon. If we're following the convention, why have we suddenly jumped
> >>>>> so far from delta in the Greek alphabet? Anyone know?
> >>>>
> >>>> <https://dailycaller.com/2021/11/27/world-health-organization-omicron-variant-nu-xi-coronavirus/>
> >>>
> >>> But they skipped over *10* other letters in total, not just the 2 mentioned in the article!
> >>
> >> Clearly, there have been eight other variants, none of which have shown up in sufficient volume to become variants of concern.
> >>
> >
> >I wonder what they will do after they have used the omega...
> We'll all be dead by then. One way or another...

Delta Omicron
Delta Xi Omicron

It will never end.

[ke...@kjwdesigns.com]

On Tuesday, 30 November 2021 at 09:14:32 UTC-8, gnuarm.del...@gmail.com wrote:
....

> No one disputes that point. What you can't seem to grasp is that this simple fact has nothing to do with two strains "competing" with one another. The growth rate of one strain does not impact the growth rate of the other strain. That's what competition is.

Surely it does if there s cross-immunity.

If one strain infects somebody so that they are less likely to get the either strain again for some time there is competition between the two strains. The strain that is more infective will tend to reduce the other to the point of extinction.

kw
...

[Rick C]

No, immunity still has the same impact on both strains. If one strain creates immunity to the other strain and the other strain does not create immunity to the one strain, you might see some impact... but the infection rates are not high enough for this to matter. That's the point. Competition requires some resource to be in short supply limiting infection rates. The success of one strain has to reduce the opportunity for other strains to spread. In this pandemic infection rates are not high enough for any cross effects to matter (so no real competition) and even the vaccine rates are barely high enough to have an impact on strain spreading, still not high enough to have the impact we'd like.

We we have many strains all working against the wall of vaccination to spread among the population independent of one another.

--

Rick C.

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[Robert Latest]

Rick C wrote:
> No, immunity still has the same impact on both strains. If one strain
> creates immunity to the other strain and the other strain does not create
> immunity to the one strain, you might see some impact... but the infection
> rates are not high enough for this to matter. That's the point. Competition
> requires some resource to be in short supply limiting infection rates. The
> success of one strain has to reduce the opportunity for other strains to
> spread. In this pandemic infection rates are not high enough for any cross
> effects to matter (so no real competition) and even the vaccine rates are
> barely high enough to have an impact on strain spreading, still not high
> enough to have the impact we'd like.

That wouldn't explain the complete eradication of the alpha variant. I
understand your argument and am inclined to follow it but I believe there is
another effect at work, with delta actively pusing alpha out.

[Rick C]

I didn't think the alpha variant was wiped out. But some strains no doubt have been. The reason is simple. The protections we are throwing up combined with the vaccine has pushed the R value for the alpha strain below 1.0. Any organism that has an R value below 1.0 decreases in numbers until it is gone. You should understand that pretty well.

The only reason different strains interact is when one is so much more infectious that it dominates by reproducing much faster pushing up the overall infection numbers significantly. That was what happened with Delta. The world responded to the high rates of infection and strains with lesser infection rates dropped from the scene. So there is some interaction if a strain so completely dominates that it changes behavior in the host affecting the environment to select for more infectious strains causing some to die out entirely. As we all know, it is rare that our precautions last long enough for that sort of thing to happen, at least it seems that way. In much of the US we aren't even wearing masks anymore and infection rates are rising. So I'm pretty sure the Alpha strain is not gone yet and is likely growing in numbers. You can't tell this by looking at percentages. As I've said, each strain is separate, fighting its own battle for survival just as if it were an entirely separate disease. You have to get raw numbers to see it, which is hard to do.

Your idea that Delta is "actively" pushing Alpha out doesn't hold water. They typically aren't even infecting the same people. They just don't interact.

Ed Lee gets some sort of mutation numbers which only he can turn into values for strains, but I don't know I can trust his results as no one else understands what he is saying and he won't show his math.

--

Rick C.

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[Ed Lee]

On Tuesday, November 30, 2021 at 1:28:46 PM UTC-8, gnuarm.del...@gmail.com wrote:
> On Tuesday, November 30, 2021 at 3:33:54 PM UTC-4, Robert Latest wrote:
> > Rick C wrote:
> > > No, immunity still has the same impact on both strains. If one strain
> > > creates immunity to the other strain and the other strain does not create
> > > immunity to the one strain, you might see some impact... but the infection
> > > rates are not high enough for this to matter. That's the point. Competition
> > > requires some resource to be in short supply limiting infection rates. The
> > > success of one strain has to reduce the opportunity for other strains to
> > > spread. In this pandemic infection rates are not high enough for any cross
> > > effects to matter (so no real competition) and even the vaccine rates are
> > > barely high enough to have an impact on strain spreading, still not high
> > > enough to have the impact we'd like.
> > That wouldn't explain the complete eradication of the alpha variant. I
> > understand your argument and am inclined to follow it but I believe there is
> > another effect at work, with delta actively pusing alpha out.
> I didn't think the alpha variant was wiped out. But some strains no doubt have been. The reason is simple. The protections we are throwing up combined with the vaccine has pushed the R value for the alpha strain below 1.0. Any organism that has an R value below 1.0 decreases in numbers until it is gone. You should understand that pretty well.
>
> The only reason different strains interact is when one is so much more infectious that it dominates by reproducing much faster pushing up the overall infection numbers significantly. That was what happened with Delta. The world responded to the high rates of infection and strains with lesser infection rates dropped from the scene. So there is some interaction if a strain so completely dominates that it changes behavior in the host affecting the environment to select for more infectious strains causing some to die out entirely. As we all know, it is rare that our precautions last long enough for that sort of thing to happen, at least it seems that way. In much of the US we aren't even wearing masks anymore and infection rates are rising. So I'm pretty sure the Alpha strain is not gone yet and is likely growing in numbers. You can't tell this by looking at percentages. As I've said, each strain is separate, fighting its own battle for survival just as if it were an entirely separate disease. You have to get raw numbers to see it, which is hard to do.
>
> Your idea that Delta is "actively" pushing Alpha out doesn't hold water. They typically aren't even infecting the same people. They just don't interact.

Yes, W (Wuhan, Alpha) disappeared 6 months before Delta, and during the time, it was D614G taking over, at least in the USA.

> Ed Lee gets some sort of mutation numbers which only he can turn into values for strains, but I don't know I can trust his results as no one else understands what he is saying and he won't show his math.

I tried to show it many times:
delta variant is B.1.617.2 including D614G, T478K, L452R and P681R.

Currently, in the USA, roughly half of the samples are D614G and 1/3 are Delta.


USA______________|_417N_452R_478K_484Q_501Y_570D_614G_681R_|___W___A___B___C___D___E___O
2020/06__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%_|_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%__0%__0%
2020/07__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
2020/08__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
2020/09__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
2020/10__________|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
2020/11__(__977)_|___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__0%__0%__0%__0%
2020/12__(__873)_|___1%___1%___0%___1%___0%___0%__99%___0%_|__0%__0%_99%__1%__0%__0%__0%
2021/01__(_2682)_|___5%___4%___1%___5%___1%___0%__99%___1%_|__0%__3%_91%__4%__1%__0%__0%
2021/02__(_4927)_|___3%___9%___2%___1%___2%___0%__98%___2%_|__0%__7%_90%__1%__2%__0%__0%
2021/03__(11927)_|__15%__25%__15%___1%__15%___1%__85%__14%_|__0%_11%_73%__0%_14%__1%__0%
2021/04__(24080)_|__52%__58%__52%___4%__55%___3%__45%__52%_|__0%__6%_39%__0%_52%__3%__0%
2021/05__(27592)_|__67%__70%__66%___4%__70%___3%__30%__66%_|__0%__4%_26%__0%_66%__3%__0%
2021/06__(12070)_|__61%__63%__59%___5%__62%___3%__38%__59%_|__0%__4%_32%__2%_59%__3%__0%
2021/07__(20731)_|__25%__27%__25%__37%__28%___3%__68%__25%_|__0%__2%_32%_34%_24%__3%__5%
2021/08__(31367)_|___9%__12%__10%__71%__11%___2%__81%__10%_|__0%__1%_10%_69%__9%__1%_10%
2021/09__(_5566)_|__49%__49%__49%__22%__52%___3%__48%__49%_|__0%__3%_26%_19%_49%__0%__3%
2021/10__(_3376)_|__23%__23%__24%__18%__25%___2%__75%__23%_|__0%_11%_47%_17%_23%__0%__3%
2021/11__(_3248)_|__28%__28%__28%__16%__30%___2%__69%__28%_|__0%__7%_48%_14%_28%__0%__2%

_________________|_417N_452R_478K_484Q_501Y_570D_614G_681R_|___W___A___B___C___D___E___O
W=WuHan_A=452R+614G_B=484E+614G_C=484Q+614G_D=452R+478K+681R_E=478K+501Y_O=Other

[Rick C]

This is what I mean. Only Ed knows how he gets "1/3 are Delta" from the above data. I think he did provide a link for the raw data, but it was in a form that is very hard to read or requires processing or something, I forget.

The real problem with trying to understand this stuff is there are so many reports of the same FEW facts and virtually no good references of useful data. A great example of that is worldometer where you can find lots of good data, well presented on total numbers and daily numbers, but no daily per capita data. I also can't find info on where they obtain their data, for example for Florida. I don't think Florida reports data daily, but worldometer shows daily numbers with no deaths since the 24th. NY Times shows hundreds on the days Florida reports and days with zero deaths, but an average of 56 as of yesterday. Seems Florida is reporting once a week. So how is worldometer making it look like they have daily data coming in?

--

Rick C.

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[Ed Lee]

If i blank out the other parts:
2021/11__(_3248)_|__ ,,, _|__0%_____48%_____28%_______
_________________|_ ..._|___W_______B_______D_______
W=WuHan B=484E+614G D=452R+478K+681R

Let me rephase it:
WHO's delta variant is B.1.617.2 including D614G, T478K, L452R and P681R.

But there are almost no sample with all of them.
Instead, I see 48% with B=484E+614G and 28% with D=452R+478K+681R

WHO is right that 98% contains 614G, 478K, 452R and 681R, but they are two separate strains of virus in the USA.

Data source: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/datasets/coronavirus/genomes/

[Rick C]

The data on this page doesn't seem to download. It says it's going to do it, but it never happens.

I don't believe in June the virus was 99% W and in July it was 99% B. Nope, didn't happen. You need to figure out what's wrong with your analysis or their data.

--

Rick C.

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[Ed Lee]

I do not have firm data before Sep 2020. Transition could have happened in Jul or Aug. But certainly by Sep, It's mostly B (D614G). The huge first wave occurs between Jul and Nov. If it's D614G in Sep, it's likely the same in Jul and Aug. D614G is so infectious that USA was number 1 for most of second part of 2020.

The data is still in NCBI, but it's impossible to back download, unless we have access to the raw data base. As with most government program, there is no "ending date". Namely, you can't specific an ending date to download.

[Rick C]

I'm not sure what you are trying to say. The data won't download at all. No date is specified.

--

Rick C.

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[Ed Lee]

I do not have firm data before Nov 2020. Transition could have happened in Jul or Aug. But certainly by Nov, It's mostly B (D614G). The huge first wave occurs between Jul and Nov. If it's D614G in Nov, it's likely the same in Jul to Oct. D614G is so infectious that USA was number 1 for most of second part of 2020.

> > The data is still in NCBI, but it's impossible to back download, unless we have access to the raw data base. As with most government program, there is no "ending date". Namely, you can't specific an ending date to download.

There wasn't much data before Nov 2020 anyway, even if we can download. Serious genome sequencing started near end of 2020.

> I'm not sure what you are trying to say. The data won't download at all. No date is specified.

You have to specify the starting date to download.

[Rick C]

Specified date, still no file download. Typical government BS. Do it right or figure it out on your own. No info provided.

--

Rick C.

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[Martin Brown]

On 30/11/2021 18:19, ke...@kjwdesigns.com wrote:
> On Tuesday, 30 November 2021 at 09:14:32 UTC-8, gnuarm.del...@gmail.com wrote:
> ....
>> No one disputes that point. What you can't seem to grasp is that this simple fact has nothing to do with two strains "competing" with one another. The growth rate of one strain does not impact the growth rate of the other strain. That's what competition is.
>
> Surely it does if there s cross-immunity.

Even without that modification of behaviour (and rules) because of a
rapidly growing infection with the more vigorous strain creates a
situation where the less fit strain falls by the wayside. Each
successive generation the fittest strain gets additional market share.

>
> If one strain infects somebody so that they are less likely to get the either strain again for some time there is competition between the two strains. The strain that is more infective will tend to reduce the other to the point of extinction.

Even more so when interventions like social distancing, mask wearing,
work from home and vaccination put in place to defeat the newest variant
take the effective R value for the older strains below unity.

Selection pressure is now entirely focussed on ability to reproduce and
transmit the disease to others. That typically means faster penetration
into a cell, more rapid replication and a longer incubation time spent
highly infective in nasal passages without showing any obvious symptoms.

Wild forms and D614G have all but disappeared in places where Alpha and
then Delta have really taken hold. Delta AY.4.2 is now rising in the UK
so it must have a reproductive advantage in our environment.

You can still get sporadic cases of the older strains re-introduced by
foreign travel but there is no longer much if any community
transmission. The strain of the virus with the highest success rate at
reproducing quickly supplants the previous strains until a new even
fitter one arises. Omicron looks like it might be just that.

This is a bit dated now but it shows how the WHO and scientists have
assessed the effectiveness of vaccine induced antibodies against the
viral forms up to Delta.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0753332221009604

Pfizer doesn't appear to handle P1 all that well.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown

[bitrex]

It's weird how the communist manifesto made some suggestions that 21st
century capitalism seems to be implementing way more efficiently than
the 20th century communists ever did.

"Klaus Schwab as publisher of the World Economic Forum's 2010 'Global
Redesign' report postulates that a globalized world is best managed by a
self-selected coalition of multinational corporations, governments
(including through the UN system) and select civil society organizations
(CSOs)."

As I recall Marx wrote about a "dictatorship of the proletariat", not a
"dictatorship of the CEOs", or a "dictatorship of the dictatorship", lol.

Have to chuckle at people in the US remarking about photos of stores
here with no product on the shelves during the pandemic "Wow, it's just
like Venezuela" no, it's just like America! they can't even remember
where they are, gosh sounds like a perfectly amenable people to abolish
nationality in to begin with.

Anyway the global company store Amazon is having some good deals this
week, better check 'em out!!!!