On Thursday, September 16, 2021 at 12:53:45 AM UTC+10, Fred Bloggs wrote:
> On Tuesday, September 14, 2021 at 11:14:28 PM UTC-4,
bill....@ieee.org wrote:
> > On Wednesday, September 15, 2021 at 4:59:03 AM UTC+10, Fred Bloggs wrote:
> > > More evidence mounting supporting the boundless incompetence of the Trump administration. Goes to show what happens when executive leadership is 100% political and 0% capable.
> > >
> > >
https://nypost.com/2021/09/14/chinese-defector-warned-us-intelligence-of-covid-19-in-2019/
> > >
> > > That stuff about workers at the Wuhan lab becoming ill in November 2019 is nearly irrelevant. By that time probably a million people in Wuhan were infected- DUH!
>
> > Not what people who know what they are talking about think.
>
> That's your opinion.
But you haven't cited any plausible counter opinion. What a Chinese defector might have thought about respiratory infection statistics in Wuhan in November 2019 isn't all that persuasive.
> >
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Li_Wenliang
> >
> > got worried about it on the 30th December 2019.
>
> That article is more or less anecdotal observations of a practitioner. It is not an epidemiological study.
Obviously. And nobody seems to have been doing any kind of epidemiological study of the Wuhan cases at that point. Since the genome of Covid-19 was first published on the 11th/12th January 2020, they did get going very quickly once the penny dropped, which does seem to have happened on the 31st December 2020.
> > The first known case - confirmed retrospectively - was admitted to hospital on the 1st December 2019. Clearly something very similar - but a whole lot less lethal and infectious - was circulating before that. What a Chineses defector might have claimed to have known about the disease before then probably owes more to the attention he is seeking to get than any kind of reliable knowledge.
>
> It was in US early 12/2019.
Evidence? I never seen that claim made anywhere where anybody sane would take it seriously.
> The very original strain was more or less innocuous like they know coronavirus to be.
The very original strain is the one still circulating in bats. it had to move on a lot before it could infect humans to any significant extent.
> But with millions of people and enough time, a lethal variant emerged in November.
There certainly weren't millions of people infected by any immediate precursor of Covid-19. The crucial mutation was probably the one that made it infectious enough to get its R value a bit over one, so it could infect a lot of people.
> The defector story is right, the virus was circulating as early as September/ October.
The first recorded case wasn't recorded until the 1st December 2020. What it might have evolved from would be interesting but we have absolutely no way of finding that out in any detail.
> With all the infections circulating, you're bound to get Wuhan lab workers come down with it.
Except that whatever it was that was circulating probably wasn't all that infectious, and there wouldn't have been much of it around until the crucial mutation popped up.
> So that little factoid is not probative of an escape. If any real scientific evidence of an escape does appear, it will because of an American setup.
I presume you means somebody in America might generate some faked up "evidence", rather like the stories your defector seems to have concocted.
--
Bill Sloman, Sydney