dagmarg...@yahoo.com wrote:
> On May 4, 5:43 pm, Les Cargill<
lcargil...@comcast.com> wrote:
>>
dagmargoodb...@yahoo.com wrote:
>>> On May 2, 6:40 pm, Les Cargill<
lcargil...@comcast.com> wrote:
>>
>> <snip>
>>
>>>> Other than the delay in line, I doubt the whole program really
>>>> costs *anything* in real terms. It's kind a' like WIC; it
>>>> runs the price of cheese and milk up.
>>
>>>> If I read this
>>>> right:
http://www.fns.usda.gov/pd/SNAPsummary.htm
>>
>>>> It's (rounding up) $78B. That's in the noise. I don't see any
>>>> positive feedback runaway here...
>>
>>> a) It's doubled in 3 years.
>>
>> a.1) It'll probably halve in three more...
>
> Only if we change course. We've not only had more applicants due to
> poverty, but we've lowered the standards to qualify. And, they've
> been advertising.
>
Possibly. The rebound from every downturn since the '81 one has been
worse ( unless you were in the hot industry for a bubble ).
I *really* think that people have strong preference for jobs,
very close to universally. We have TV shows about people working
now - Holmes is one. Were there movieds about carpentry in the '30s?
I don't think there were...
>>> b) That's a lot of money.
>>
>> Not in Bizarro Government World. No matter how strange you think
>> it is, it's much stranger yet. Especially with food, the net
>> effect *could* be quite small
>
> You mean because the recipients pay taxes, and spend the money with
> people who pay taxes, producing offsetting revenue?
>
Partly that, but mostly that the real ( as in nonmonetary ) costs are
quite low. I've never actually seen it measured.
> I'd re-think that. And, it still robs taxpayers. $70B is $700 each
> for 100M taxpayers.
>
I understand. Thing is, if it's really for people who are just
completely boned otherwise, I don't mind paying that at all.
I have to wonder if there's not room in the world for a
not-for-profit that tries to eliminate dependence on government.
As much bluster as there is on the subject, you'd think there would be.
But I suspect that this is like people who also don't send money
to "help" with the deficit. there's something creepy about doing
that, maybe.
it's a lot easier to talk about it than do something < looks
guiltfully at mirror >.
>> ( was it you pointing me to "King Corn"?
>
> <blush>
>
yeah, I'd seen it. :) great little film. In a way, I sort
of admire the ingenuity of the system, but I never looked
at farms the same way again.
I'd love for somebody to do followup films like King
Corn on the wholesale and retail ends of food. it's a huge
process.
>> Yeah, like that .... ) The marginal cost and materials used to make
>> that stuff is pretty low, because the supply is doubly-regulated -
>> by subsidies and by the futures markets.
>>
>>> c) You're not counting all the zillions of other handout
>>> programs. Together, that's BIG money.
>>
>> All that is true enough.
>>
>>>> We *have* absorb the fact that work is a declining factor of
>>>> production. Because you have to absorb facts.
>>
>>> That exact argument has been made since the Industrial Revolution
>>> began--machines put people out of work--yet somehow there's still
>>> lots to do.
>>
>> This seems different. We've had in essence no improvement in
>> employment since about 1980, other than bubbles. This while GDP
>> has been pretty healthy.
>
> We've had more and more people working (until the past three or four
> years). People have new ideas, then start small businesses, which
> drives hiring.
>
> People are not doing that under the current regime's oppression,
> hence the hiring deficit. That *is* extremely bad, but easily
> solved.
>
>
Problem is - the trend predates the present administration. And the
current regime has evolved from Clinton to Bush and now to Obama in a
very straight line manner. There's a mass of common principles
between the three. it's even true in Britain for the same
time frames.
In a way, this was true of Reagan, but not nearly as much. I don't
mean them except as era markers.
I don't think who's POTUS matters for this. It's bigger than
they are.
>> The proto-Marxists and Marxists were wrong for technical reasons.
>> People who point to this like me will be wrong for other reasons
>> we don't know about. But that leaves the here and now...
>>
>>> We've gone from what, 80% of population in agriculture to<3%,
>>> because of machines, yet we produce more food than ever. Was
>>> that bad?
>>
>> Oh, absolutely. No doubt. But if I consider that a data point that
>> indicates that we may continue to have unemployment problems. As
>> happened with agriculture happened with industry.
>
> Of course. There's always turnover, always creative destruction in
> progress somewhere. That's healthy, how we adapt.
>
Right. We get a massive benefit from it. We'd still like
to have our cake and eat it too..
>> At this writing, because of the Humphrey-Hawkins Full Employment
>> Act of 1979, unemployment is in scope for government. It's
>> probably an ironic coincidence, but just as poverty stopped
>> dropping after the passage of Johnson's Great Society, unemployment
>> has been a fact of life since.
>
> It's a two-fer: paying people not to work encourages many to do that,
> and the wet blanket that puts on everyone else slows job growth&
> hiring.
>
By '65, people had been leaving rural areas for Detroit and
other places for quite a while. The problem with *that* is
that the large firm began to die around then*...
*and nobody is explaining this well other than Schumpeter.
I'm not sure that the people who draw on public assistance
are forsaking very good jobs - if there's any job at all for
them. Dunno about you, but I've had jobs where the company
crippled itself to where I wasn't getting much done... it
was a relief to get out and find another job, even if that
meant a layoff.
> Regulation is choking American growth. I despise legions of turkeys
> demanding me to fill out this and file that, all for their pleasure.
> It didn't used to be like this. My grandpa blasted stumps out of
> his CA yard with dynamite. Today he'd be arrested.
>
I am not so sure it's choking growth per se. It's doubtless expensive,
but the figures say that there's simply not enough money
in the right places.
Dunno - then I think of RoHS and...
>> A proper Hayekian would shrug and say "of course." Government
>> creates bubbles... I guess my point is that we appear not to be
>> able to keep our hands off it, so we need to do it better. As it
>> is, we're stuck.
>
> It can never be done better centrally, and not by politicians.
A central authority simply doesn't have the *bandwidth*.
> They bend it to their purposes, not ours.
>
Yep. They almost *have* to. Politics is quite competitive. It's
like the worst of both worlds.