EVs Will Soon Be Vastly Cheaper To Own Than Carbon Fuel Vehicles

[Bret Cahill]

Daimler and others already pointed out that the battery upon which Tesla's e-Semi is based does not exist. Tesla isn't just hoping a better battery will appear, however. They have good information on it and it isn't all that insider:

http://www.businessinsider.com/new-discovery-could-be-death-blow-to-traditional-lithium-ion-batteries-2017-12

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/01/electric-cars-already-cheaper-to-own-and-run-than-petrol-or-diesel-study


Bret Cahill

[John Larkin]

Smart people will invest in the tow truck business.


--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

lunatic fringe electronics

[default]

On Mon, 04 Dec 2017 08:34:15 -0800, John Larkin
<jjla...@highlandtechnology.com> wrote:

>On Sun, 3 Dec 2017 10:06:16 -0800 (PST), Bret Cahill
><bretc...@aol.com> wrote:
>
>>Daimler and others already pointed out that the battery upon which Tesla's e-Semi is based does not exist. Tesla isn't just hoping a better battery will appear, however. They have good information on it and it isn't all that insider:
>>
>>http://www.businessinsider.com/new-discovery-could-be-death-blow-to-traditional-lithium-ion-batteries-2017-12
>>
>>https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/01/electric-cars-already-cheaper-to-own-and-run-than-petrol-or-diesel-study
>>
>>
>>Bret Cahill
>>
>>
>
>Smart people will invest in the tow truck business.

Or trucks with engine/generators.

[rickman]

John Larkin wrote on 12/4/2017 11:34 AM:
> On Sun, 3 Dec 2017 10:06:16 -0800 (PST), Bret Cahill
> <bretc...@aol.com> wrote:
>
>> Daimler and others already pointed out that the battery upon which Tesla's e-Semi is based does not exist. Tesla isn't just hoping a better battery will appear, however. They have good information on it and it isn't all that insider:
>>
>> http://www.businessinsider.com/new-discovery-could-be-death-blow-to-traditional-lithium-ion-batteries-2017-12
>>
>> https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/01/electric-cars-already-cheaper-to-own-and-run-than-petrol-or-diesel-study
>>
>>
>> Bret Cahill
>>
>>
>
> Smart people will invest in the tow truck business.

Ok, so what will you be doing?

--

Rick C

Viewed the eclipse at Wintercrest Farms,
on the centerline of totality since 1998

[rickman]

I'm still considering getting a Tesla. I'll be able to buy a Model 3 with
the current standard package in 3 or 4 months or I can wait a bit longer and
buy one the way I want it configured. I need to look at the options a bit
harder to see if waiting is worth it or not. I also want to get more info
on just how different the Model 3 is from the Model S or X. With a range of
310 miles there won't be much problem getting from refueling station to
station even on long trips. The 480 mile trip has five options for
refueling which only needs to be done once, same as in my truck with a 440
mile range.

[Bret Cahill]

> >>> Daimler and others already pointed out that the battery upon which Tesla's e-Semi is based does not exist. Tesla isn't just hoping a better battery will appear, however. They have good information on it and it isn't all that insider:
> >>>
> >>> http://www.businessinsider.com/new-discovery-could-be-death-blow-to-traditional-lithium-ion-batteries-2017-12
> >>>
> >>> https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/01/electric-cars-already-cheaper-to-own-and-run-than-petrol-or-diesel-study

> >> Smart people will invest in the tow truck business.
> >
> > Or trucks with engine/generators.
>
> I'm still considering getting a Tesla. I'll be able to buy a Model 3 with
> the current standard package in 3 or 4 months or I can wait a bit longer and
> buy one the way I want it configured.

Toyota claims they have a solid state Li-Ion battery coming out next year and a Stanford-Taiwanese group claim they will have an aluminum battery about the same time. Goodenough and a Swiss firm claim they have a Na-ion battery but that'll be 10 years.

> I need to look at the options a bit
> harder to see if waiting is worth it or not. I also want to get more info
> on just how different the Model 3 is from the Model S or X. With a range of
> 310 miles there won't be much problem getting from refueling station to
> station even on long trips. The 480 mile trip has five options for
> refueling which only needs to be done once, same as in my truck with a 440
> mile range.

An EV may work out even if you make two long trips / month in a rental.


Bret Cahill

[Bret Cahill]

> >Daimler and others already pointed out that the battery upon which Tesla's e-Semi is based does not exist. Tesla isn't just hoping a better battery will appear, however. They have good information on it and it isn't all that insider:

> >http://www.businessinsider.com/new-discovery-could-be-death-blow-to-traditional-lithium-ion-batteries-2017-12

> >https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/01/electric-cars-already-cheaper-to-own-and-run-than-petrol-or-diesel-study

> Smart people will invest in the tow truck business.

Even with short range & long charging times EV tow trucks make sense right now as they generally don't go far.

[default]

I'm sure they'll work it out. The market demands it, presumably with
all the different technologies manufacturers should be starting to set
some charging and connector or whatever standards today. Or maybe
they plan to play the old vhs/beta game with incompatible competing
technologies?

[default]

Or small gas turbine APU's that they could drop off with stranded
motorists, that they just chuck in the trunk and return when they can.

There's lots of ways to make this work. It will be interesting to see
how it all plays out.

[Jim Thompson]

On Tue, 05 Dec 2017 13:32:43 -0500, default <def...@defaulter.net>
wrote:

Liquid electricity ?>:-}

...Jim Thompson
--
| James E.Thompson | mens |
| Analog Innovations | et |
| Analog/Mixed-Signal ASIC's and Discrete Systems | manus |
| STV, Queen Creek, AZ 85142 Skype: skypeanalog | |
| Voice:(480)460-2350 Fax: Available upon request | Brass Rat |
| E-mail Icon at http://www.analog-innovations.com | 1962 |

It's what you learn, after you know it all, that counts.

[rickman]

Bret Cahill wrote on 12/5/2017 12:00 PM:
>>>>> Daimler and others already pointed out that the battery upon which Tesla's e-Semi is based does not exist. Tesla isn't just hoping a better battery will appear, however. They have good information on it and it isn't all that insider:
>>>>>
>>>>> http://www.businessinsider.com/new-discovery-could-be-death-blow-to-traditional-lithium-ion-batteries-2017-12
>>>>>
>>>>> https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/01/electric-cars-already-cheaper-to-own-and-run-than-petrol-or-diesel-study
>
>>>> Smart people will invest in the tow truck business.
>>>
>>> Or trucks with engine/generators.
>>
>> I'm still considering getting a Tesla. I'll be able to buy a Model 3 with
>> the current standard package in 3 or 4 months or I can wait a bit longer and
>> buy one the way I want it configured.
>
> Toyota claims they have a solid state Li-Ion battery coming out next year and a Stanford-Taiwanese group claim they will have an aluminum battery about the same time. Goodenough and a Swiss firm claim they have a Na-ion battery but that'll be 10 years.

Is Toyota saying they will have a battery out or a car out with that
battery? Two very different things. Having a battery out in 10 years is
not much different from saying it will be out in 100 years.

>> I need to look at the options a bit
>> harder to see if waiting is worth it or not. I also want to get more info
>> on just how different the Model 3 is from the Model S or X. With a range of
>> 310 miles there won't be much problem getting from refueling station to
>> station even on long trips. The 480 mile trip has five options for
>> refueling which only needs to be done once, same as in my truck with a 440
>> mile range.
>
> An EV may work out even if you make two long trips / month in a rental.

Why would I use a rental to avoid a 30 minute recharge on an 8 hour trip? I
typically stop to eat anyway. Not only has Tesla built a large network of
super chargers, local vendors are sponsoring them to attract customers.
Tesla has already committed to doubling the number of chargers in 2018.
Expect the number of chargers to triple over the next two or three years.

[rickman]

WTF??? I can count on one hand how many times I've run out of gas in my
life and all but one of those was when I was a dumb kid. One time I ran out
of gas because I had a shipping deadline to make and would have missed if I
got gas *before* I dropped off the package and then didn't have quite enough
gas to get to the gas station. The EV is a very "smart" car which will
allow you to keep in very close touch with your consumption and range and
distance to public facilities, not to mention that you can put some minimal
amount of charge on the batteries even from a 110 volt outlet. It may be a
while getting some charge, but being stranded is something that should
happen less often with an EV than a gas powered car. There are more 110
outlets in a single city than all the gas stations in the entire USA.

[John Larkin]

That's not what I meant.

[rickman]

No, he wasn't trying to make sense.

[Bret Cahill]

> >>>>> Daimler and others already pointed out that the battery upon which Tesla's e-Semi is based does not exist. Tesla isn't just hoping a better battery will appear, however. They have good information on it and it isn't all that insider:
> >>>>>
> >>>>> http://www.businessinsider.com/new-discovery-could-be-death-blow-to-traditional-lithium-ion-batteries-2017-12
> >>>>>
> >>>>> https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/01/electric-cars-already-cheaper-to-own-and-run-than-petrol-or-diesel-study
> >
> >>>> Smart people will invest in the tow truck business.
> >>>
> >>> Or trucks with engine/generators.
> >>
> >> I'm still considering getting a Tesla. I'll be able to buy a Model 3 with
> >> the current standard package in 3 or 4 months or I can wait a bit longer and
> >> buy one the way I want it configured.
> >
> > Toyota claims they have a solid state Li-Ion battery coming out next year and a Stanford-Taiwanese group claim they will have an aluminum battery about the same time. Goodenough and a Swiss firm claim they have a Na-ion battery but that'll be 10 years.
>
> Is Toyota saying they will have a battery out or a car out with that
> battery? Two very different things.

If Toyota isn't smart enough to design one component to fit the others how did they ever get ICE under the hood?

How many different cell phone battery sizes are out there? A gazillion? They need to get together like they did for USB, HDTV and other connectors and agree on a half dozen sizes for PDAs. Then do the same for motor vehicle batteries. Shipping used vehicle batteries is prohibitively expensive on Ebay.

> Having a battery out in 10 years

Solid state by next year and Toyota isn't known for making bogus claims, just the opposite. Just a few years ago the Japanese were saying they couldn't get off carbon and now it turns out they are leading the way.

As William Faulkner said people need to be encouraged.

> >> I need to look at the options a bit
> >> harder to see if waiting is worth it or not. I also want to get more info
> >> on just how different the Model 3 is from the Model S or X. With a range of
> >> 310 miles there won't be much problem getting from refueling station to
> >> station even on long trips. The 480 mile trip has five options for
> >> refueling which only needs to be done once, same as in my truck with a 440
> >> mile range.
> >
> > An EV may work out even if you make two long trips / month in a rental.
>
> Why would I use a rental to avoid a 30 minute recharge on an 8 hour trip? I
> typically stop to eat anyway.

Drivers shouldn't be on the I-5 or 99 for more than 8 hours w/o a break anyway. Every time you drive to NorCal you regret not flying and every time you fly you regret not driving. Low speed rail takes 24 hours.

> Not only has Tesla built a large network of
> super chargers, local vendors are sponsoring them to attract customers.

You can go anywhere in the Sonoran Desert by EV, at least North of the border.

> Tesla has already committed to doubling the number of chargers in 2018.
> Expect the number of chargers to triple over the next two or three years.

Tesla tried the charming "build it and they will come" approach with EVs and it actually worked!

You really need an EV market in place before they'll have the fire in the belly to come up with better batteries, charging stations, etc.


Bret Cahill

[Bret Cahill]

> >> >Daimler and others already pointed out that the battery upon which Tesla's e-Semi is based does not exist. Tesla isn't just hoping a better battery will appear, however. They have good information on it and it isn't all that insider:
> >
> >> >http://www.businessinsider.com/new-discovery-could-be-death-blow-to-traditional-lithium-ion-batteries-2017-12
> >
> >> >https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/01/electric-cars-already-cheaper-to-own-and-run-than-petrol-or-diesel-study
> >
> >> Smart people will invest in the tow truck business.
> >
> >Even with short range & long charging times EV tow trucks make sense right now as they generally don't go far.
> >
> >
>
> That's not what I meant.

Fire engines are another likely EV candidate.


Bret Cahill

[rickman]

Bret Cahill wrote on 12/7/2017 11:42 AM:
>>>>>>> Daimler and others already pointed out that the battery upon which Tesla's e-Semi is based does not exist. Tesla isn't just hoping a better battery will appear, however. They have good information on it and it isn't all that insider:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> http://www.businessinsider.com/new-discovery-could-be-death-blow-to-traditional-lithium-ion-batteries-2017-12
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/01/electric-cars-already-cheaper-to-own-and-run-than-petrol-or-diesel-study
>>>
>>>>>> Smart people will invest in the tow truck business.
>>>>>
>>>>> Or trucks with engine/generators.
>>>>
>>>> I'm still considering getting a Tesla. I'll be able to buy a Model 3 with
>>>> the current standard package in 3 or 4 months or I can wait a bit longer and
>>>> buy one the way I want it configured.
>>>
>>> Toyota claims they have a solid state Li-Ion battery coming out next year and a Stanford-Taiwanese group claim they will have an aluminum battery about the same time. Goodenough and a Swiss firm claim they have a Na-ion battery but that'll be 10 years.
>>
>> Is Toyota saying they will have a battery out or a car out with that
>> battery? Two very different things.
>
> If Toyota isn't smart enough to design one component to fit the others how did they ever get ICE under the hood?
>
> How many different cell phone battery sizes are out there? A gazillion? They need to get together like they did for USB, HDTV and other connectors and agree on a half dozen sizes for PDAs. Then do the same for motor vehicle batteries. Shipping used vehicle batteries is prohibitively expensive on Ebay.

Cell phone have very little in common with cars. Not sure what your point is.

>> Having a battery out in 10 years
>
> Solid state by next year and Toyota isn't known for making bogus claims, just the opposite. Just a few years ago the Japanese were saying they couldn't get off carbon and now it turns out they are leading the way.

I'm not clear on what Toyota is claiming, hence my question.

> As William Faulkner said people need to be encouraged.
>
>>>> I need to look at the options a bit
>>>> harder to see if waiting is worth it or not. I also want to get more info
>>>> on just how different the Model 3 is from the Model S or X. With a range of
>>>> 310 miles there won't be much problem getting from refueling station to
>>>> station even on long trips. The 480 mile trip has five options for
>>>> refueling which only needs to be done once, same as in my truck with a 440
>>>> mile range.
>>>
>>> An EV may work out even if you make two long trips / month in a rental.
>>
>> Why would I use a rental to avoid a 30 minute recharge on an 8 hour trip? I
>> typically stop to eat anyway.
>
> Drivers shouldn't be on the I-5 or 99 for more than 8 hours w/o a break anyway. Every time you drive to NorCal you regret not flying and every time you fly you regret not driving. Low speed rail takes 24 hours.

None of this makes much sense to anyone who isn't from your area. Are you
in the US?

>> Not only has Tesla built a large network of
>> super chargers, local vendors are sponsoring them to attract customers.
>
> You can go anywhere in the Sonoran Desert by EV, at least North of the border.
>
>> Tesla has already committed to doubling the number of chargers in 2018.
>> Expect the number of chargers to triple over the next two or three years.
>
> Tesla tried the charming "build it and they will come" approach with EVs and it actually worked!

Yeah, they are in the final stage of having a high volume, mass production
EV on the market unlike GM or any of the other companies. GM's approach is
amazing. "Build part of it and don't market much and see if it will fail".
I won't buy a Bolt because GM is only selling a car and not a solution.
They are depending on others to take care of the issues of getting the cars
charged.

> You really need an EV market in place before they'll have the fire in the belly to come up with better batteries, charging stations, etc.

Who's "they"? Tesla is doing it all. Tesla is the only car company that
understands the market in my opinion. Everyone else is working on building
and selling EVs exactly the same way they sell gas cars. That won't work.

[Bret Cahill]

> >>>>>>> Daimler and others already pointed out that the battery upon which Tesla's e-Semi is based does not exist. Tesla isn't just hoping a better battery will appear, however. They have good information on it and it isn't all that insider:
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>> http://www.businessinsider.com/new-discovery-could-be-death-blow-to-traditional-lithium-ion-batteries-2017-12
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>> https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/01/electric-cars-already-cheaper-to-own-and-run-than-petrol-or-diesel-study
> >>>
> >>>>>> Smart people will invest in the tow truck business.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> Or trucks with engine/generators.
> >>>>
> >>>> I'm still considering getting a Tesla. I'll be able to buy a Model 3 with
> >>>> the current standard package in 3 or 4 months or I can wait a bit longer and
> >>>> buy one the way I want it configured.
> >>>
> >>> Toyota claims they have a solid state Li-Ion battery coming out next year and a Stanford-Taiwanese group claim they will have an aluminum battery about the same time. Goodenough and a Swiss firm claim they have a Na-ion battery but that'll be 10 years.
> >>
> >> Is Toyota saying they will have a battery out or a car out with that
> >> battery? Two very different things.
> >
> > If Toyota isn't smart enough to design one component to fit the others how did they ever get ICE under the hood?
> >
> > How many different cell phone battery sizes are out there? A gazillion? They need to get together like they did for USB, HDTV and other connectors and agree on a half dozen sizes for PDAs. Then do the same for motor vehicle batteries. Shipping used vehicle batteries is prohibitively expensive on Ebay.

> Cell phone have very little in common with cars. Not sure what your point is.

> >> Having a battery out in 10 years
> >
> > Solid state by next year and Toyota isn't known for making bogus claims, just the opposite. Just a few years ago the Japanese were saying they couldn't get off carbon and now it turns out they are leading the way.
>
> I'm not clear on what Toyota is claiming, hence my question.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-tokyo-toyota-battery/toyota-scrambles-to-ready-game-changer-ev-battery-for-mass-market-idUSKBN1CW27Y

> > As William Faulkner said people need to be encouraged.
> >
> >>>> I need to look at the options a bit
> >>>> harder to see if waiting is worth it or not. I also want to get more info
> >>>> on just how different the Model 3 is from the Model S or X. With a range of
> >>>> 310 miles there won't be much problem getting from refueling station to
> >>>> station even on long trips. The 480 mile trip has five options for
> >>>> refueling which only needs to be done once, same as in my truck with a 440
> >>>> mile range.
> >>>
> >>> An EV may work out even if you make two long trips / month in a rental.
> >>
> >> Why would I use a rental to avoid a 30 minute recharge on an 8 hour trip? I
> >> typically stop to eat anyway.
> >
> > Drivers shouldn't be on the I-5 or 99 for more than 8 hours w/o a break anyway. Every time you drive to NorCal you regret not flying and every time you fly you regret not driving. Low speed rail takes 24 hours.
>
> None of this makes much sense to anyone who isn't from your area. Are you
> in the US?
>
>
> >> Not only has Tesla built a large network of
> >> super chargers, local vendors are sponsoring them to attract customers.
> >
> > You can go anywhere in the Sonoran Desert by EV, at least North of the border.
> >
> >> Tesla has already committed to doubling the number of chargers in 2018.
> >> Expect the number of chargers to triple over the next two or three years.
> >
> > Tesla tried the charming "build it and they will come" approach with EVs and it actually worked!
>
> Yeah, they are in the final stage of having a high volume, mass production
> EV on the market unlike GM or any of the other companies. GM's approach is
> amazing. "Build part of it and don't market much and see if it will fail".
> I won't buy a Bolt because GM is only selling a car and not a solution.

I once asked a relative of the manager of the largest engine plant in the world if the politics at GM was really that bad, already the stuff of course work, books and PhD papers.

He cringed with this grim don't even think about fixing it look. No matter what any CEO tried, he'd get out flanked by underlings.

Years later he said he'd be better off as a failed entrepreneur than work at GM.

> They are depending on others to take care of the issues of getting the cars
> charged.

> > You really need an EV market in place before they'll have the fire in the belly to come up with better batteries, charging stations, etc.
>
> Who's "they"? Tesla is doing it all. Tesla is the only car company that
> understands the market in my opinion. Everyone else is working on building
> and selling EVs exactly the same way they sell gas cars. That won't work.

The others either figger it out or go tits up. Battery + solar is already cheaper than diesel.

The e semi makes even more sense than passenger EV.

You don't take side trips on a lark in a heavy truck. Everything is planned so there's no such thing as range anxiety. Since a commercial vehicle spends so much time on the road the payback is much faster, financing easier.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/07/anheuser-busch-preorders-40-tesla-semis.html

A heavy truck gets 100 ton miles/gallon or with an e semi 8 ton miles/ kW-hr.

That's about $1.80 for 15 cents/kW-hr grid electricity + $1.20 for the battery for 100 ton miles.

Solar PV is only a few cents/kW-hr. so the total there is already cheaper than $2.50/gallon diesel and battery costs are still going down.

Supposedly Mexico will soon have the cheapest electricity on the planet:

1 cent/kW-hr.


Bret Cahill

[Bret Cahill]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-07/ge-s-12-000-job-cuts-highlight-uneasy-shift-to-renewable-energy

[rickman]

Bret Cahill wrote on 12/7/2017 8:29 PM:
>>>>>>
>>>>>> I'm still considering getting a Tesla. I'll be able to buy a Model 3 with
>>>>>> the current standard package in 3 or 4 months or I can wait a bit longer and
>>>>>> buy one the way I want it configured.
>>>>>
>>>>> Toyota claims they have a solid state Li-Ion battery coming out next year and a Stanford-Taiwanese group claim they will have an aluminum battery about the same time. Goodenough and a Swiss firm claim they have a Na-ion battery but that'll be 10 years.
>>>>
>>>> Is Toyota saying they will have a battery out or a car out with that
>>>> battery? Two very different things.
>>>
>>> If Toyota isn't smart enough to design one component to fit the others how did they ever get ICE under the hood?
>>>
>>> How many different cell phone battery sizes are out there? A gazillion? They need to get together like they did for USB, HDTV and other connectors and agree on a half dozen sizes for PDAs. Then do the same for motor vehicle batteries. Shipping used vehicle batteries is prohibitively expensive on Ebay.
>
>> Cell phone have very little in common with cars. Not sure what your point is.
>
>>>> Having a battery out in 10 years
>>>
>>> Solid state by next year and Toyota isn't known for making bogus claims, just the opposite. Just a few years ago the Japanese were saying they couldn't get off carbon and now it turns out they are leading the way.
>>
>> I'm not clear on what Toyota is claiming, hence my question.
>
> https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-tokyo-toyota-battery/toyota-scrambles-to-ready-game-changer-ev-battery-for-mass-market-idUSKBN1CW27Y

"The new batteries, which have more than twice the energy density of lithium
ion units, could power electric vehicles more than 300 miles on a single
charge and enter production in the early 2020s, top engineers at the company
said.

Since 2012, Toyota has managed a fivefold increase in the power output of
its experimental solid-state batteries, Senior Managing Officer Soichiro
Okudaira told a conference here.

The current coin-sized cell is still in the laboratory stage. But Toyota
expects the technology to be ready for cars in the early 2020s, Hideki Iba,
general manager for the Japanese carmaker's battery research division, said
separately. "

So this new battery won't be in cars for some five or more years.

"Looking further ahead, Toyota is working on so-called lithium air
batteries, which have energy densities around 1,000 watt-hours per liter.
Their power output is on par with solid-state units.

In lithium air batteries, the lithium cathode used in lithium ion batteries
is replaced with one that interacts with oxygen. This requires less material
and allows for lighter packaging.

Toyota projected those would be ready after 2030."

This is even worse, with such a long lead time it might end up not being
practical for auto use.

> I once asked a relative of the manager of the largest engine plant in the world if the politics at GM was really that bad, already the stuff of course work, books and PhD papers.
>
> He cringed with this grim don't even think about fixing it look. No matter what any CEO tried, he'd get out flanked by underlings.
>
> Years later he said he'd be better off as a failed entrepreneur than work at GM.

Read the book, "The Reckoning" by David Halberstam. If you think GM is bad,
I bet Ford is worse.

>> They are depending on others to take care of the issues of getting the cars
>> charged.
>
>>> You really need an EV market in place before they'll have the fire in the belly to come up with better batteries, charging stations, etc.
>>
>> Who's "they"? Tesla is doing it all. Tesla is the only car company that
>> understands the market in my opinion. Everyone else is working on building
>> and selling EVs exactly the same way they sell gas cars. That won't work.
>
> The others either figger it out or go tits up. Battery + solar is already cheaper than diesel.

Huge, mega-companies like GM don't have to do everything right. Look at all
the many, many screwups by Intel which they just toss on the trash heap.
Heck, at one point they sold their ARM license to one of the companies who
is now eating their lunch!

GM will sell the Bolt and possibly improve it and come out with another
model or two while everyone else (hopefully everyone) learns the nature of
the market and adapts. GM won't go "tits up", they will just loose money on
it for many years ahead before they end up buying cars from someone else and
rebranding them.

> The e semi makes even more sense than passenger EV.
>
> You don't take side trips on a lark in a heavy truck. Everything is planned so there's no such thing as range anxiety. Since a commercial vehicle spends so much time on the road the payback is much faster, financing easier.
>
> https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/07/anheuser-busch-preorders-40-tesla-semis.html
>
> A heavy truck gets 100 ton miles/gallon or with an e semi 8 ton miles/ kW-hr.
>
> That's about $1.80 for 15 cents/kW-hr grid electricity + $1.20 for the battery for 100 ton miles.
>
> Solar PV is only a few cents/kW-hr. so the total there is already cheaper than $2.50/gallon diesel and battery costs are still going down.
>
> Supposedly Mexico will soon have the cheapest electricity on the planet:
>
> 1 cent/kW-hr.

[John Larkin]

To put out the battery fires?

--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

picosecond timing precision measurement

jlarkin att highlandtechnology dott com
http://www.highlandtechnology.com

[Jeff Layman]

It's an interesting idea, but is it viable? The weak point is Scandium.
According to the Wikipedia Scandium entry, current world production is
around only 10 tonnes! That wouldn't go very far, if you consider that
the magnesium-scandium-selenide spinel contains around 22% scandium if
you look at a typical formula - MgSc2Se4 - from the original Nature
article (<https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-01772-1>) . So,
currently, if all the world's Scandium was turned into batteries, it
would probably make enough for a few hundred cars at most.

And then you have consider where the Scandium would come from. Again,
from the Wiki, commercial production is at present from only three
sources - Ukraine, Russia, and China. Looks like we'd need a lot more
sources for production and price stability if it's to be used in a
mainstream battery. More info here:
<https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/scandium/mcs-2016-scand.pdf>

--

Jeff

[Bret Cahill]

> > Daimler and others already pointed out that the battery upon which Tesla's e-Semi is based does not exist. Tesla isn't just hoping a better battery will appear, however. They have good information on it and it isn't all that insider:
> >
> > http://www.businessinsider.com/new-discovery-could-be-death-blow-to-traditional-lithium-ion-batteries-2017-12
> >
> > https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/01/electric-cars-already-cheaper-to-own-and-run-than-petrol-or-diesel-study
> >
> >
> > Bret Cahill
>
> It's an interesting idea, but is it viable? The weak point is Scandium.
> According to the Wikipedia Scandium entry, current world production is
> around only 10 tonnes! That wouldn't go very far, if you consider that
> the magnesium-scandium-selenide spinel contains around 22% scandium if
> you look at a typical formula - MgSc2Se4 - from the original Nature
> article (<https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-017-01772-1>) . So,
> currently, if all the world's Scandium was turned into batteries, it
> would probably make enough for a few hundred cars at most.

From your link:

"Resources of scandium are abundant in relation to demand. Scandium is rarely concentrated in nature because of its lack of affinity for the common ore- forming anions. It is widely dispersed in the lithosphere and forms solid solutions in more than 100 minerals."

<https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/scandium/mcs-2016-scand.pdf>

It seems like 1 cent/kW-hr power could really lower the cost of a lot of concentration processes.

For some reason this fact is never in the media.

> And then you have consider where the Scandium would come from. Again,
> from the Wiki, commercial production is at present from only three
> sources - Ukraine, Russia, and China.

"There are identified scandium resources in Australia, Canada, China,
Kazakhstan, Madagascar, Norway, the Philippines, Russia, and Ukraine."

<https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/scandium/mcs-2016-scand.pdf>

[rickman]

John Larkin wrote on 12/8/2017 8:48 PM:
> On Thu, 7 Dec 2017 08:44:04 -0800 (PST), Bret Cahill
> <bretc...@aol.com> wrote:
>
>>>>>> Daimler and others already pointed out that the battery upon which Tesla's e-Semi is based does not exist. Tesla isn't just hoping a better battery will appear, however. They have good information on it and it isn't all that insider:
>>>>
>>>>>> http://www.businessinsider.com/new-discovery-could-be-death-blow-to-traditional-lithium-ion-batteries-2017-12
>>>>
>>>>>> https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/01/electric-cars-already-cheaper-to-own-and-run-than-petrol-or-diesel-study
>>>>
>>>>> Smart people will invest in the tow truck business.
>>>>
>>>> Even with short range & long charging times EV tow trucks make sense right now as they generally don't go far.
>>>>
>>>>
>>>
>>> That's not what I meant.
>>
>> Fire engines are another likely EV candidate.
>>
>>
>> Bret Cahill
>
> To put out the battery fires?

At least they can be doused with water. Gasoline fires are much harder to
fight. There was an accident on the DC beltway some years back where a car
cut off a gasoline tanker at the 270 split and the truck ended up straddling
the guard rail. Its momentum rammed it into the overpass abutment and it
came apart all over the highway. A number of people were maimed and killed.
The car that caused the accident was never found. They closed the
overpass until they could be sure the heat didn't weaken the steel. Of
course traffic was a total disaster.

At least car batteries won't release all the energy of a tanker filled with
gasoline!

This happened some time ago so to be sure of the details I googled the
accident. It was not so easy to find amongst all the many other gasoline
tanker accidents on the highways.

[Tom Del Rosso]

"electric-cars-already-cheaper-to-own-and-run-than-petrol-or-diesel-study"

That's good news. Then we don't have to subsidize it.

[Jim Thompson]

Hurray!! Good news!

[Bret Cahill]

> >>>>>> Daimler and others already pointed out that the battery upon which Tesla's e-Semi is based does not exist. Tesla isn't just hoping a better battery will appear, however. They have good information on it and it isn't all that insider:
> >>>>
> >>>>>> http://www.businessinsider.com/new-discovery-could-be-death-blow-to-traditional-lithium-ion-batteries-2017-12
> >>>>
> >>>>>> https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/01/electric-cars-already-cheaper-to-own-and-run-than-petrol-or-diesel-study
> >>>>
> >>>>> Smart people will invest in the tow truck business.
> >>>>
> >>>> Even with short range & long charging times EV tow trucks make sense right now as they generally don't go far.
> >>>>
> >>>>
> >>>
> >>> That's not what I meant.
> >>
> >> Fire engines are another likely EV candidate.
> >>
> >>
> >> Bret Cahill
> >
> > To put out the battery fires?
>
> At least they can be doused with water. Gasoline fires are much harder to
> fight. There was an accident on the DC beltway some years back where a car
> cut off a gasoline tanker at the 270 split and the truck ended up straddling
> the guard rail. Its momentum rammed it into the overpass abutment and it
> came apart all over the highway. A number of people were maimed and killed.
> The car that caused the accident was never found. They closed the
> overpass until they could be sure the heat didn't weaken the steel. Of
> course traffic was a total disaster.
>
> At least car batteries won't release all the energy of a tanker filled with
> gasoline!
>
> This happened some time ago so to be sure of the details I googled the
> accident. It was not so easy to find amongst all the many other gasoline
> tanker accidents on the highways.

One must-do if not entirely formal study would be to compare the stats on the number of lives lost developing and using fossil carbon technology, i.e., black lung, mine, boiler, drill rig and other explosions & fires, to number of deaths from non fossil tech, i.e., dams, Solar City, wind turbines, Galaxy cell phones, etc.

The basis would be life-years / joule.

Researchers could even include Dutchmen falling off old timey windmills, dare devil swimmers sucked through the turbines swimming across Lake Mead, whatever. You could easily get 2 sig fig accuracy.

Hyping such a study would hamstring snow trollers because they must at least pretend in their talking points no process can involve more than one step or involve more than one effect ("8 feet of Gore Bull wammin' just fell on Buffalo! BWAHAHAHAHA!").

Once you force them to open the door to consider multiple factors like the advances in safety regulations, tort law as well as the technology, it starts to drain the fun out of their "it's simple" shtick.


Bret Cahill

[mrda...@gmail.com]

On Sunday, December 3, 2017 at 10:06:22 AM UTC-8, Bret Cahill wrote:
> Daimler and others already pointed out that the battery upon which Tesla's e-Semi is based does not exist. Tesla isn't just hoping a better battery will appear, however. They have good information on it and it isn't all that insider:
>
> http://www.businessinsider.com/new-discovery-could-be-death-blow-to-traditional-lithium-ion-batteries-2017-12
>
> https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/01/electric-cars-already-cheaper-to-own-and-run-than-petrol-or-diesel-study
>
>

> Bret Cahill


We used to have driverless cars, which could bring you home when you were asleep or drunk. Then they got rid of the horse.

Bring back the Horse and Buggy! Horses are solar-powered! They eat grass, which grows from sunlight!

4 hp Horse and Buggy! Now with steel ball bearings! Charge your cell phones with the onboard brushless motor alternator!

Michael

[John Larkin]

How much insurance does a horse need?

[Bret Cahill]

> > I once asked a relative of the manager of the largest engine plant in the world if the politics at GM was really that bad, already the stuff of course work, books and PhD papers.
> >
> > He cringed with this grim don't even think about fixing it look. No matter what any CEO tried, he'd get out flanked by underlings.
> >
> > Years later he said he'd be better off as a failed entrepreneur than work at GM.
>
> Read the book, "The Reckoning" by David Halberstam. If you think GM is bad,
> I bet Ford is worse.

Ford might not be quite as "hidebound" now as in the past.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autoshow-detroit-ford-motor/ford-plans-11-billion-investment-40-electrified-vehicles-by-2022-idUSKBN1F30YZ

I wish I had a < 5 week response time planning letters to politicians.

We're living in a philosopher-engineer's paradise. Just daydream out loud and it becomes reality in real time.


Bret Cahill

[amdx]

On 12/4/2017 10:34 AM, John Larkin wrote:

> On Sun, 3 Dec 2017 10:06:16 -0800 (PST), Bret Cahill
> <bretc...@aol.com> wrote:
>
>> Daimler and others already pointed out that the battery upon which Tesla's e-Semi is based does not exist. Tesla isn't just hoping a better battery will appear, however. They have good information on it and it isn't all that insider:
>>
>> http://www.businessinsider.com/new-discovery-could-be-death-blow-to-traditional-lithium-ion-batteries-2017-12
>>
>> https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/01/electric-cars-already-cheaper-to-own-and-run-than-petrol-or-diesel-study
>>
>>
>> Bret Cahill
>>
>>
>

> Smart people will invest in the tow truck business.
>
>

I think we will need additional power generating plants.
Some reduced need because of night time charging. but at some point
there will be increased demand.

Mikek

[rickman]

I'm sure you know what you are referring to, but I don't. I can't see
inside your head. Care to explain what you mean?

[Bret Cahill]

> <robertscribbler.com>
>
> 21 Mar 2018
>
> Big Auto Freaks Out as Tesla Model 3 Deliveries for Q1 Track Toward
> 8,000 to 10,000
>
> The major automakers are increasingly in a bind. They're faced with a
> choice - keep investing in dirty energy vehicles that pollute the air,
> the water and wreck the climate, jump feet first into the EV
> revolution, or play both sides. And it's this dichotomy that's
> producing some rather freaky behavior.

[Bret Cahill]

> Daimler and others already pointed out that the battery upon which Tesla's e-Semi is based does not exist. Tesla isn't just hoping a better battery will appear, however. They have good information on it and it isn't all that insider:
>
> http://www.businessinsider.com/new-discovery-could-be-death-blow-to-traditional-lithium-ion-batteries-2017-12
>
> https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/01/electric-cars-already-cheaper-to-own-and-run-than-petrol-or-diesel-study

One concern.

It may be some situation where they just cannot adapt.

There is some "invisible psychological hand" as with the Vega:

https://qz.com/1510405/gms-layoffs-can-be-traced-to-its-quest-to-turn-people-into-machines/

[John Larkin]

On Thu, 3 Jan 2019 21:00:47 -0800 (PST), Bret Cahill
<bretc...@aol.com> wrote:

>> Daimler and others already pointed out that the battery upon which Tesla's e-Semi is based does not exist. Tesla isn't just hoping a better battery will appear, however. They have good information on it and it isn't all that insider:
>>
>> http://www.businessinsider.com/new-discovery-could-be-death-blow-to-traditional-lithium-ion-batteries-2017-12

Astonishing nonsense.


>
>> https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/dec/01/electric-cars-already-cheaper-to-own-and-run-than-petrol-or-diesel-study
>

Subsidies make things cheaper? Gosh.

>One concern.
>
>It may be some situation where they just cannot adapt.
>
>There is some "invisible psychological hand" as with the Vega:
>
>https://qz.com/1510405/gms-layoffs-can-be-traced-to-its-quest-to-turn-people-into-machines/
>
>
>

--

John Larkin Highland Technology, Inc

lunatic fringe electronics

[Bret Cahill]

"Elon Musk is now the richest person in the world, passing Jeff Bezos" https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2021/01/07/elon-musk-is-now-the-richest-person-in-the-world-passing-jeff-bezos-.html