Tired Tuesday Fire

[SBitz]

It's not just all of us, Tommy's tired too, at least in SB County. Lots of containment back burning recently, especially last night. This is good news for the fire crews valiantly working to help Thomas slumber and give us all a break. Despite how it looks on some TV news and even official fire reports, my own take is that IF wind conditions hold we've turned the corner. I haven't checked yet this morning (anyone have something to post?), but I gather fixed wind air attack on our SB County side has ramped up. I've been wondering if there hadn't been more before is because they were letting it burn in containment areas and preemptively clear heavy fuel loads where structures aren't threatened. Whatever the case it seems to be working much like surgery, and once the smoke clears we'll see scarred hills for a year or two.

Anyway, here comes some hard data, starting with this 11:30am GOES low-res IR satellite view.

Only one hotspot in SB County, probably a brief spot fire flare just above the Carp/Summerland area. Otherwise a wide area of mostly cooler burning or smouldering shown by the more gray colored squares. Again, these squares just indicate the intensity of fire detected within a 4km square. Accuracy is pretty low, but this is the most frequently updated fire detection source I've found. If you have any info to share, please do. I'll post more as I find it...

[Section Make8R]

quick note.....ridge that was burning above Summerland  Montecito only smoldered down its west face a bit, since last night, couldnt see anything all day until right now I can see flames on the face (thats the one all media has been showing pics off)  winds "appear" to be pushing smoke off to the east.  Heavy Heavy smoke and ash fall here at 101/San Ysidro , RH has dropped down to 33%, very dry at 8% up in the hills.  This is about the time the skys cleared yesterday and the jets came over.  One was lit by the sun, like a giant red machine.....awesome if it werent for the job they had to do.  I've been having camera troubles, otherwise I would post some shots.  Got a full house of neighbors cars and pets etc to watch....ok later

[Section Make8R]

      http://www.sccoos.org/data/coamps/analyses/searange/wshr00.png

trying out this quick link, I use it for ocean winds etc. ( jeez misplace a comma or something...grrr...I think it works now....my bad sorry)

Thanks for your contributions! Since you're even busier than I at the moment, I'm taking the liberty of editing this post below to add a screencap for those with limited internet, and making the cool link you've posted "live" (click on the Link item at middle-top of the Edit window) so others can click it. -SBitZ

[SBitz]

Here's the 1pm GOES, un-brightened.

[SBitz]

For anyone outside the area wondering how all this looks for us, here are some pix taken from the area of highways 101@154 around 2pm as the sun began to peek out from above the thickest smoke plume. South toward the plume & struggling sun:

West a few minutes where most of the smoke is headed right now:

A wider view Northeast where the fire has been gnawing at our mountains:

[SBitz]

Here's how experts predicted surface smoke to look right now (pretty close, given they did this in the wee hours of this morning):

Here's their guess on how the sky would look now:

[SBitz]

Here's how our smoke looked to the GOES visible light sat at 1:30pm. I've tweaked the brightness up so you can see it better.

[SBitz]

Here's the view North from BC Pk a few minutes ago, with brightness and color tweaked up a little. First time Lake Cachuma I've seen looking so good in days.

Here's the view to the East, also showing more than just smoke for a nice change.

[SBitz]

Here's the 2pm GOES oft-updated but low-resolution InfraRed satellite view of our region, showing that flare up in Ventura County that's putting up the thickest smoke right now. Hopefully that too is the sort of semi-controlled back burning the firefighters have used successfully here to create some initial containment while the winds are relatively calm.

[Pork Rind]

I'm hiding out up in Seattle, taking the opportunity to put in a little face time with my co workers and clients. That said, I've been watching the activity closely and tracking the progress of the support aircraft as I can. I don't have some of the options I would if I were home, but I see plenty of aerial support using the tools I still can access. Some of the aircraft involved are very interesting. There's an OV-10 Bronco (look it up, it's a strange beast) presumably operating as a spotter, and a Pilatus PC-12 (I'll take one please) from the State of Colorado Public Safety Division, either a spotter or a guide plane. I've seen a couple C-130s making passes too, but they're currently not in sight of my antenna.  

In my brief glances, I haven't seen the DC-10 or 747, but all are welcome to peek.

Note: The air is getting brown up here in the PNW. The meteorologists say it's our smoke!

Flight tracking...

http://184.189.223.251:8080

[SBitz]

Speaking of the wind that's most responsible for this ongoing assault, the current aviation forecast shows surface (following mountain ground contours) winds below 18mph through Friday evening. Up at 3,000 feet above sea level, not so much. It starts getting 3,000' 18-24mph SW wind predicted at the southern edge of mountains above the Ventura County fire area at 4pm. Again, the reason I'm tracking this is that surface winds can get gusts from strong higher level winds that can pick up embers and carry them ahead of the fire. Less likely with all the burnt area down slope, but something to be alert to. It gets stronger for a while, then lessens and bends toward the WSW at 10pm, dropping back below 18mph and shifting toward the South until morning. The least reassuring aspect of the wind forecast I see for SB County is the fact the air's so dry, coming off the desert as you can see below - and that at by 9pm (in the current forecast) it's predicted to look like this at 6,000' above sea level.

Not very concerning given all factors and previous outcomes. Mostly just a lot more smoke and ash from any fires hot enough to keep pumping it up above the peaks. My take: we can breathe easier, but still through masks.

[SBitz]

> I'm hiding out up in Seattle

I don't want to be cruel, but confess to being a tiny bit glad to know you took some of our smoke up to share with them. ;)

> OV-10 Bronco (look it up, it's a strange beast)

My impression from prior fires is that they do actual spot drops.

> Pilatus PC-12

My hunch is that one may have some instrumentation, maybe including IR cameras. Sure wish we could access what any/all of these fire a/c are seeing.

> (I'll take one please)

They're a fun ride. We got to go up in one out of IZA (Santa Ynez) a few years back, and it was above the mountains in a blink. SurfAir flies them out of SBA, so we see them here a lot and they're happy to use any runway since even the shortest here are ample for them.

> I've seen a couple C-130s making passes too

Yes, bless 'em!  They've been the most able to fly pretty large loads of retardant into the smoke, wind and rough terrain.

> In my brief glances, I haven't seen the DC-10 or 747

I've seen glimpses of the smaller jets in some local TV news coverage, but don't know the time and location. KEYT has been doing an amazing job of covering this fire, even occasionally buying video from the LA news helicopters that fly over for a glimpse. If the smoke's thinner tomorrow I might fly outside the restricted airspace and try for some decent long telephoto pix to share, adding some orienteering to help people get a sense of where things are.

> all are welcome to peek http://184.189.223.251:8080

Yes, please!  I have to go offline for a while again so I hope everyone with the time and inclination will post air attack info from PR's site link above, or ANYthing you find interesting that might be helpful for everyone who's had to leave their homes and families and desperate for info. Even tidbits from the local TV news, since many can't get that. Or what you're seeing and hearing on the ground, including at shelters or those SBCFD info kiosks.

Mask up and stay safe everyone...

[SBitz]

Wind still below 18mph in the region on the aviation forecast, and the wind at 3,000' above sea level over the Ventura County part of Thomas peaks in this view at 11pm.

GOES IR sat fire detections at 6pm with brightness pumped up looks like this, and the brighter spot near Carp is actually two dim (low/moderate heat) detections that overlap.

BC Pk to the East is looking almost normal, with more stars out and city lights looking bright even before I pumped the brightness up to better show the gentle waves of smoke.

Here's the 5pm offshore surface wind interpreted from observations that was linked to and talked about in prior posts.

They've finally posted the color visible light satellite photo with fire detection red dots added. I don't know when today it was snapped or what the fire dots are from, but it's cute to look at. The only info I gather from it is smoke was thin enough not to show out over the water, which even the aging GOES sat could pick up during the day. Anyway, enjoy. :)

Any fire aircraft with night vision could easily fly tonight, and as I thought that the sound of a chopper appeared. Would be nice if they're able to help the ground crews really bring the hammer down on all those spot fires and smokers. None showing on PR's cool air traffic app, but if I see some later there or other sources I'll update.

Looking Good! :D

[SBitz]

Spoke too soon it seems. Friends just told me about a fire taking out homes in Toro Cyn and endangering fire crews up in the Romero Cyn area. Apparently related to these screencaps from the KEYT 3-2 6pm news rerun recently. I'm sure appreciating their great coverage of this fire, especially now that they're re-broadcasting and doing more frequent cut-ins on both channels.

[Section Make8R]

I took a spin down the 101 to Summerland and then turned around, ended up being waved off Ortega Ridge (I thought perhaps people would be tired of looking at the fire) but that area sits  right above Romero Canyon, so quite spectacular fire images. Felt stupid for doing what I knew I shouldn't do.  Like a moth to a flame.  

Its really burning hot red, and not the orange that it settles to later on.  Cant really see structures but it came down in a wedge fashion.  Really beautiful embers, almost like a small fireplace.....thats how freaky the scale is. (edit to add: dont me to talk lightly about this whole thing..it just has this strange power over one to gaze at it.....) groups of people all over the place, pulled over watching, even on the freeway)

 

Earlier at twilight, from my driveway ( I'm down in the flats), I was using my binocs to check progress and watched as a plume from the backside of the ridge went up.  Kind of freaked me out, I've seen fires here before (40 yr resident) but this torch was just huge...huge....twisted and turning up.  Easily 3 or 4 times the size of most of the flames I saw.  It cut itself off and a giant fireball hovered for a second, before going out.  I suspect this kind of behavior has been going on, I just have busy doing other things.  

Winds at the fire areas are blowing up slope and to the east, but down here we have the standard evening N downslope winds starting up, not strong.   Forecasts for next week are troubling as North component of flow may increase, with cold air mass moving it, and Santa Barbara gets its stronger offshores from those, than from the"standard" Santa Anas.  I think that was mentioned here. At least the weather people on the news are finally lunderstanding that, or at least are trying to explain it to people.  Not all wind is same!  

 

[SBitz]

> this torch was just huge...huge....twisted and turning up.  Easily 3 or 4 times the size of most of the flames I saw.

Thanks for sharing this. Matches with the description by a friend who was talking with a fire truck ride along who later said something along these lines. "When I saw seasoned fire veterans start running, it got my attention."

> I suspect this kind of behavior has been going on

Apparently not.  Anyone seen something about this on the news?  We've been offline (and TV) a while.

[SBitz]

I'm starting to think of Thomas as a zombie fire. The kind that never dies. Here's how he looks, leering menacingly at us over the distant hills to the East from BC Pk.

Brightness pumped up some showing the city lights dimmer, multiple flares brighter (one with "small" smoke plume), but still some stars above. More stuff to follow...

[SBitz]

KEYT is saying there's active burning slowly toward the West (bad news). Zaca Fire burned this much total acreage in 8 weeks, Tommy's done it in 8 days and is still going. New normal? Well, here's the 11pm aviation wind for 3,000 feet above sea level showing wind less thank 18mph. But even without wind the humidity is so low the fire's still hungry. So this time here's that 11pm/3k' wind forecast for the whole continental U.S. (CONUS). Pretty crazy wind pattern for 3k', showing a jet stream effect 15,000 feet or so below where it used to look this way.

[SBitz]

From the 8pm InciWeb update:
Gusty Santa Ana winds will continue to push fire to the west. Very high fuel loading, critically low fuel moistures, above average temperatures and single-digit relative humidities will support fire growth on the west and north sides of the Thomas Fire. Firefighters will remain engaged in structure defense operations and scout for opportunities to establish direct perimeter control.

Fire will continue to threaten the communities of Santa Barbara, Carpinteria, Summerland, Montecito and surrounding areas. Fireline construction to the north of these communities will continue. Evacuation operations will occur ahead of westward fire growth. Improvement of the Camino Cielo for use as a control line will occur. Contingency groups will work to improve existing fuel breaks in Santa Barbara County in the areas of Windy Point and Foothills. Direct line construction, where possible, will continue on the northern side of the fire as well as the establishment of secondary line. In previously burned areas, continued mop-up operations will occur in order to expedite repopulation efforts.

The area between west of Fillmore and Ventura along Highway 126 will remain in patrol status. Ojai, Casitas Springs, Oak View and Matilija Canyon will remain threatened by residual hot spots. In the east, outlying areas of Fillmore will remain threatened. Fire personnel will work to construct direct fireline where possible on the east side of the fire. Scouting for establishment of indirect fireline will continue where needed. The Sespe Wilderness and the Sespe Condor Sanctuary remain a concern due to active fire in rugged terrain.

Northeast to east winds, gusting between 20 and 30 MPH, developed last night and this morning. With the winds, relative humidity recovery was very poor, especially above 1000 feet. By this afternoon, the offshore winds will weaken and southerly/onshore winds will develop. It will be another warm day with many areas in the lower to mid 80s. Relative humidity will drop into the single digits and low teens during the day.

[SBitz]

Just saw this 747 fire tanker article in Wired, sent to me by an SBitZ.Net Member. To check it out, click here.

[SBitz]

Here's the 11pm GOES low-res IR sat image.

Here's the 11:30 (both unchanged for direct comparison).

SB County better, Ventura County worse. Wish I could stay up all night and watch this stuff but sleep beckons. If you're awake and see something, please post something. Hope we're all safe tonight and will see some improvement in the morning.

[SBitz]

Almost forgot, for everyone out of town following this here's how our sky looked at sunset Tuesday. First came a false sunset when it began to dip into a thick smoke layer.

Then before the actual sunset it again settled into another thicker layer still above the horizon darkening the sky even further.