Flood Disaster

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SBitz

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Jan 9, 2018, 12:41:31 PM1/9/18
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This new topic is where we can share news and updates on the flood related disaster in the Thomas Fire burn area.

SBitz

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Jan 9, 2018, 12:47:07 PM1/9/18
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A debris flow went from above Montecito down the area of Hot Springs Road and Olive Mill Road, to at least across the railroad tracks near the beach. KEYT confirms at least five dead, with ongoing medivac helicopter evacuations. Homes destroyed and damaged, with people trapped.

KEYT live stream broadcast at this link.

SBitz

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Jan 9, 2018, 12:55:59 PM1/9/18
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Rainfall map as of 10am.

More heavy rain is likely this morning.
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SBitz

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Jan 9, 2018, 1:10:18 PM1/9/18
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Here's the 10am radar image showing the next major wave of rain headed our way. I've added a purple arrow showing the approximate track it's taking in a counter-clockwise rotation.
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SBitz

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Jan 9, 2018, 1:20:02 PM1/9/18
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Here are the highway closures as of 10:15am. Most impacted is the 101 freeway from SB to Mussel Shoals.
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SBitz

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Jan 9, 2018, 1:52:46 PM1/9/18
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KEYT has been showing major destruction at the intersection of Hot Springs and Olive Mill roads. Here's a map with a red dot in that area. Apparently the debris flow carried large boulders up to 7' in diameter, destroying some homes and carrying others off their foundations. People were swept away, some in their cars, others in homes, and some on foot. Five fatalities confirmed, more injured, with many evacuations and rescues.
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SBitz

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Jan 9, 2018, 2:05:22 PM1/9/18
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There's a debris flow risk map at this link. As we know, the actual debris flow in Montecito early this morning was well below the red areas depicted on the map. Right now there's heavy rain in some areas above Carp, so hopefully we won't see more debris flows before rain eases up later today.
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SBitz

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Jan 9, 2018, 2:25:56 PM1/9/18
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Update on the NWS radar rainfall detection gives some hope that the heavy rains might be starting to ease up, although it looks likely that we'll still get some rain through the day. This was how it looked at 11am.
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SBitz

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Jan 9, 2018, 3:41:33 PM1/9/18
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Here's the SCE power outage map for 12:20pm.


Here's the 12:33pm radar rainfall map. Looks like we'll start getting a break, and there's already been breaks in the clouds here (101@154).
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RunMinnieRun

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Jan 9, 2018, 4:26:03 PM1/9/18
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Thanks for this info. I'm stuck in LA & can't reasonably get back into SB. If anyone hears any estimates about when the 101 might be opened (my issue is to get in from the south), I'd be grateful for updates on that, so I might make plans for my business. 

Be well & stay safe!

topix

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Jan 9, 2018, 5:52:34 PM1/9/18
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To find out the current status of the roads, check the CHP site here
 http://cad.chp.ca.gov/traffic.aspx?ddlComCenter=LACC

 below is a screenshot to give you a sense of it.  Look for anything that has "CLOSURE" and "Us 101", click on the "Details" to find out the status of the incident.

To decode the Details, here's the CHP Glossary of Commonly Used Abbreviations
http://cad.chp.ca.gov/htm.net/glossary.htm



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RunMinnieRun

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Jan 9, 2018, 6:07:09 PM1/9/18
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Yes, thanks. I wonder if there's any idea whether fwy might be cleared overnight by tomorrow, or if it's likely to be days yet. (I'd like to get back to my house & business, but If I can't get back to work, maybe I'd look for some here in LA for a couple of days.)

SBitz

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Jan 9, 2018, 6:07:40 PM1/9/18
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> estimates about when the 101 might be opened

Depends on where you are in LA, but just now I checked gMaps with Traffic turned on and Pasadena to SB is about 3.5 hours with routing around road closures. Most notably going North of Lake Casitas. Some roads may open up by the time you get near home, but of course you'll also get to enjoy the normal LA traffic gone wild. The closure on I-5 in San Fernando alone would make for a crazy commute, but from the rain radar I've seen all of LA is probably impacted too. That said, LA traffic is notoriously impossible to predict. We went SD-SB once in 3 hours thru LA Friday at 5pm, and another time it was 6 hours at 2am.
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RunMinnieRun

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Jan 9, 2018, 6:15:09 PM1/9/18
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I guess it could be worse.. but then again, it might get worse once I get there, too! lol

SBitz

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Jan 9, 2018, 6:24:57 PM1/9/18
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> might get worse once I get there, too! lol

True, but at least you won't be in LA. ;)

From what I'm seeing just now, it looks like the heavy rains have pretty much passed. On TV they've showed lots of equipment clearing roadways. 101 might take longer to open since they need to make it safe for LA-SJ racers going hell bent at 80mph. But 192 and other surface streets closer to the beach seem to be open already with detours and many of those may be cleared and open soon. We're about to go fly over the area, and we might update here via email from the air. Hope you're home safe and warm soon.

topix

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Jan 9, 2018, 6:57:23 PM1/9/18
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Be careful of relying on google maps as it has you driving on Casitas which is actually closed (HWY 150 is closed from Santa Ana to the 192/Foothill), and taking the 33 offramp while in actuality people are being diverted off the 101 in Ventura a few exits before. 

The CHP site sometimes will list when they expect to open things back up  (like when the oil tanker overturned near Turnpike during the fire and melted the roadway, CHP indicated an estimated time when the highway would reopen).  However, there is nothing showing on the CHP site yet as to the estimated clearing time for the current flooding/debris, but I expect it will be updated with that info as soon as CHP can determine it.


On Tuesday, January 9, 2018 at 3:07:40 PM UTC-8, SBitz wrote:

topix

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Jan 9, 2018, 7:10:22 PM1/9/18
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There is a ferry from Ventura to SB, if you are so inclined. I just saw a tweet that the CONDOR EXPRESS will shuttle people between Ventura and Santa Barbara starting Wednesday due to storm damaged freeway in Montecito and Santa Barbara.  http://condorexpress.com/  888-77WHALE or 805-719-7778.

topix

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Jan 9, 2018, 9:29:08 PM1/9/18
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The 101 is expected to remain closed until at least Thursday night. (estimate)
https://twitter.com/VCscanner/status/950891577601175552

SBitz

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Jan 9, 2018, 11:23:24 PM1/9/18
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We were able to take a brief flight out toward Montecito this evening before sunset and snap a few low light pix, but it was still raining there even though most of town was under clear sky.

We needed to stay high so the helicopters could continue their rescue and reconnaissance work, and also avoid the rain and clouds as we approached. Here's a spot that my wife saw on TV coverage and asked, "What's that river?"

It's the flooded highway 101 freeway, that used to look like this on the gMaps 3D satellite view.

When the sun briefly peeked through clouds on the ocean horizon a minute later the better light enabled us to get this zoom view of that intersection of Olive Mill Rd. at Hwy.101.

Notice how the heavy debris flow of mud and large boulders completely took out the bridge railing on the side nearest. It also roared into the entrance of the Montecito Inn building, and despite taking out the rail it continued along Olive Mill to the railroad tracks at the tennis courts above the Biltmore in the gMaps pic.

Sobering even from this distance in the fading light.

We were quiet, thinking about the people who'd been affected by that flow this morning as we turned back toward the brighter scene over downtown SB.

sigh...
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SBitz

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Jan 9, 2018, 11:55:02 PM1/9/18
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Here are a few more pix from this evening's flight, starting with the fleet of helicopters that were working out of SBA as we awaited takeoff clearance.

Before we'd headed for the airport I took a walk and in this zoom pic of a faint rainbow over the transmitter towers at Gibraltar Peak, spotted an old drama: a hawk being escorted by two angry crows.

In a wider shot the rainbow looked like this.

We noticed a mood mix in town today. Some people were contemplating the transient yet enduring nature of life and love, while others seemed frustrated with the inconvenience of flooded roads as they raced along the freeway weaving through traffic toward the hard closure we knew they'd reach a few minutes after we carefully turned off at Hwy.154.
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SBitz

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Jan 10, 2018, 12:04:15 AM1/10/18
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There's a great collection of debris flow pix on this Edhat page.

SBitz

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Jan 10, 2018, 9:50:32 PM1/10/18
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We flew again today, and were able to get some better pix. Just as we were taking off, the restricted area above Montecito was changed so it limited where we were able to fly. It's so busy with news helos, they apparently decided to increase the limit to make it easier on the search and rescue helos. We'd already been more than 2 times the altitude above it yesterday but it's now 4 times higher, so we probably won't go again until the news helos lose interest. Some of their video is very good anyway, since many of them have monster telescopic cameras. Anyway, here's a first batch of pix. I'll probably add more later when I have time to go thru them. This of course is 101 at Olive Mill.

You can see they're making good progress on Coast Village Road too. The valiant road crews were hauling debris to Salvar Bridge ("to nowhere") 154@Cathedral Oaks apparently all night. It looks like the water level is quite a bit lower on 101, so maybe they've managed to clear the drains some or it's just filtering through the debris blockage. Next is a closer look at one of the big rigs and other stuff still on the northbound lanes just East of the bridge, and muddy water still on the frontage road and people's yards.
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topix

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Jan 11, 2018, 1:30:48 AM1/11/18
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This is a flood map of predicted 100-year flood (blue) areas and flow risk areas (purple).  The black line is the Thomas Fire scar. 
This is not the map of actual damage (I deleted my earlier post as it was incorrect in suggesting that it was the affected area.  It is a preparedness map).
https://twitter.com/ClaireTVnews/status/951287339929673729

SBitz

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Jan 11, 2018, 4:22:47 AM1/11/18
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The area we've seen most often on KEYT is the intersection of Hot Springs and Olive Mill. I was surprised that it shows up in this long zoom pic from over the beach.

It's about here on gMaps and now looks very different from this 3D satellite view.

Closer to our position over the beach, this tall view shows more of the debris flow destruction just East of the Olive Mill 101 northbound exit. I'd thought those vehicles had been driving on the freeway, but now my impression is the car, boat and trailer may have been swept onto it by the flow.
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topix

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Jan 11, 2018, 3:38:49 PM1/11/18
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SBitz

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Jan 11, 2018, 7:31:40 PM1/11/18
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Outstanding find, Topix! Someone posted this interactive gMap on Edhat too. We've just flown the area again, much longer this time with multiple passes offshore and high overhead. Quite a bit of smoke in the air, apparently from more burning in the V.county back country, so some of the shots are pretty hazy. Still there are probably many that will be good enough to post. We have a dinner date, but I might be able to post a few now and probably more later.
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SBitz

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Jan 12, 2018, 2:11:42 AM1/12/18
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I finally have a few minutes to start sharing pix from our Thursday flight. The first thing that stood out to us coming from SBA was the thick haze. My guess is it was from controlled burning in the Ventura County back country, since it clung to the mountains there.

Another striking thing was the drastic change in the color of our mountains! Before the deluge they were ash gray, but now they're quite bright reddish brown bare soil with far more exposed rock than we've seen before. We hadn't realized before how much mud and debris had made it across both 101 and the railroad down to Butterfly Beach where heavy equipment was still hauling it away. Up by the Coral Casino they were using a big vacuum truck to clean it off the sidewalk in front of the Biltmore.

It had also spread out into the Biltmore parking lot on the left, stranding cars probably of people working the night shift. Debris and mud went well into the Bonnymede community.

SBitz

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Jan 12, 2018, 2:17:03 AM1/12/18
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The freeway at Olive Mill is still looking like a log flume, but the streets seem passable other than the array of trucks and heavy equipment hauling away debris.


Looking further up Olive Mill we hadn't realized before how far the debris flow spread to the East, damaging homes and sweeping away vehicles on San Benito and at the top of Santo Thomas (top right) where it apparently jumped the storm channel. The streets have been dug out, but you can get an idea of how deep and powerful the flow was by looking at the circled area that was apparently a garage swept away completely.


Speaking of that storm channel, I wonder if the sloped ramp at the North end of it accelerated the flow helping it jump the bank at the bend in the pic above. You can see that ramp in the white part of it below. This intersection of Olive Mill and Hot Springs is where a whole house was completely wiped away, and news vans with satellite dishes are parked there. All the debris and boulders that then went into the storm channel may have piled up at the bend helping it jump the bank.

Zooming in on that intersection shows the foundations of several beautiful homes that are completely gone, including one on this South side of Hot Springs below the bottom of the pic.
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Jaz2

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Jan 12, 2018, 4:10:00 PM1/12/18
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Casa de Maria looks like it got banged up.  Some buildings apparently remain, others not. 


Here's a WaPo link: https://www.washingtonpost.com/video/national/whats-left-of-a-montecito-church-after-the-mudslides-hit/2018/01/11/1b6f9eac-f726-11e7-9af7-a50bc3300042_video.html



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SBitz

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Jan 12, 2018, 5:20:27 PM1/12/18
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We got a lot of pix during yesterday's flight, and I still haven't even gone thru half of them! This time we got some long zooms up San Ysidro Creek, where we hadn't realized before the extent of the destruction. Here's how the drainage looks in the mountains above it.

It had been ash before the rain, but now it's scrubbed bare with countless boulders in the creek bed all the way to the beach. In this closer look at San Ysidro Ranch you can see that much of it survived, apparently including the Stone House Restaurant (left of the creek with green awning).


Sadly, just downstream the beloved Casa de Maria retreat center is partially swept away. That's the chapel with rooftop solar at lower left.


We flew high over the airspace restriction for some different angles, but I haven't yet started going thru those. I did find this closer zoom view of that house near Hot Springs at Olive Mill, with its garage swept away. I hadn't realized it had two garages and both are gone. The other one was a detached type, at top-left corner of pic. You can see how high the flow was by the mud mark on the white garage top-center. There's someone's roof wedged up against the house at bottom-right. It's poignant to see Old Glory still flying there.


OK, I'll look at more pix later and will post more if there's interest. Maybe we're all emotionally exhausted and would prefer to just move on, and look for ways to help?
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SBitz

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Jan 12, 2018, 6:33:34 PM1/12/18
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Carrying on down San Ysidro Creek from Casa de Maria (top-left), the damage is extensive as the flood spread out.

Homes at both sides of the lower part of this pic were subjected to a fairly deep flow.

Most of the debris seems to have angled down the middle of this pic, favoring the right side. At the bottom-left corner the home had mud to the doorstep but maybe not deep.


It's also shifted even more toward mud rather than boulders, trees and other debris on down into the orchard.


It flooded Hwy.101 at the bridges, and perhaps due to blockages there it spread out and apparently spared the homes on the beach.
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Section Make8R

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Jan 13, 2018, 1:53:23 AM1/13/18
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Well.....heres your on the ground report.....not good,not good at all...very very bad. 

 We just got Internet back, so i thought i would say hi!!!  It may go away again, power is good, water bad, gas off at least today, but has been on.  Pretty intense here, we are on lockdown, so cant go far,  I stayed with one employer here, and his wife and my GF left earlier with an escort, which they will still do. We have too many pet and responsibilities to leave, so hope to stay for a few weeks hoping they can open up some roads at least.  101 at Olive Mill is a real giant swamp pit of chaos.  Probably human remains in there to deal with as well.
  Got food, water, firewood, health so thats good. 

Went out to check our little creek at 3:30 am.on the night in question..(yes I know dumb, but never again) it was only half full, but we could hear the insane roar of the nearby Montecito Creek, which at that point was mowing its way to the ocean.  

The houses and gas lines that burnt that night, up the street from us, made it brighter out than a full moon, we thought the sun had come up......it was just surreal.

Montecito Creek is created by a joining of Hot Springs Creek and Cold Springs Creek, so it has a lot of back country to draw from.  San Ysidro is a very wide canyon, and Romero also has alot of country to pull from. 
 These seem (from what I can understand so far) to be the worst ones to let go, although no one has mentioned Toro Canyon yet, it too might have let go.

 Reports from friends at the top edge of Mt Drive say that these big pours or slugs of material just came as one huge dump, (2 eyewitnesses say at the top it was a 40ft TALL slug which carved out that little water crossing on mt drive from canyon wall to canyon wall. } These slugs then careened down pretty much in a straight line, sometimes following stream beds, but due to size and power, they pretty much just swept everything in front of them, bridges and driveways causing them to bypass and divert or just flatten. I think they picked up enough boulders to just make any course they wished.  Some walls and structures steered some of the flows down at the bottom, even a bit of hedge or wall would slow the mud, but higher up the hill, the drop is steeper, and nothing seemed to stand up whatsoever

 The one  slug near me, to the west that is, diverted at Casa Dorinda a bit, and went down Olive Mill Rd, to the ocean at the Coral Casino.  In thinking about it, mostly mud with tree s and cars still, but not massive debris, which seems to have gotten tangled up the hill. 

Otherwise probably would have taken out a small neighborhood northwest of us on Greenworth St. and then moved down on us. San Ysidro flow  also seemed to spend its energy up hill, and then mostly mud crossed the 101 to the ocean.  Same with Romero, as its all silt and mud down near beach. I think the upper slope areas are what took it worst damage.  The hills drop from 3000ft to about 1000ft in a short distance, and then it goes from 1000ft to sea level in a gentler slope.

I rode my bike around a bit, and walked to various places close by, but its impossible to really go over the mud crossings without help.  Unwise as well. The sheriffs have clamped down on people cruising around, for good reason, (people were walking kids and dogs and sightseeing all over the place at first, before we knew what really happened)  

 The hard hit intersection you will see on the news a lot,(its was easy to visit at first) was right at the entrance to Casa Dorinda. 
 I couldnt really tell where I was, even though I've lived here 40 years. 
 Devastation just unbelievable.  If you have ever been hiking over an avalanche area in the Sierra Nevada, or elsewhere, it was like that.  Huge trees snapped into twigs and stumps,boulders tossed like toys.  Cars in trees, houses just splinters of nothing.  Household items everywhere, down to the beach.
  People said it looks like hell would.  Or a war zone.    

Please say some RIPs for the people we lost, many good folks. 




 Ok thank you again for these pics!  I'm on La Vereda Road, south side, just over from San Ysidro Rd.  Big red tiled  multi roofed place, if any of your pics caught my area.






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SBitZ.NET

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Jan 13, 2018, 1:48:39 PM1/13/18
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Section Make8R wrote:
> Well.....heres your on the ground report

Glad you're OK! Thank you for the report.

> power is good, water bad, gas off at least today, but has been on

When we flew over your area, I was glad to see that your area looked OK.

> 101 at Olive Mill is a real giant swamp pit of chaos

Yes! It's surprising to me they haven't found a way of draining the
water still. It looked like they tried pumping trucks and decided to
just use skip loaders and dump trucks. There's discussion on Edhat
about where they're taking it all and worries about pollution, so maybe
that's why they're not just draining it into the ocean?

> could here the insane roar of the nearby Montecito Creek

From the air we could see how debris (boulders, trees, houses, etc.)
would lodge at bends in the creeks or some random point, spilling
everything out into an alluvial fan. Often it would then find or cut
new paths back down into the creek bed, leaving most of the debris.

> houses and gas lines that burnt that night, up the street from us

I had thought it was just one fire, but it seems there were several.
Maybe three: one at SY Ranch, one at Hot Springs/Olive Mill, and one
near your place?

> no one has mentioned Toro Canyon yet, it too might have let go.

I still haven't looked at our pix from the high overhead part of
Thursday's flight, but it will probably include some shots of that area.

> San Ysidro seemed to spend its energy up hill

Yes, that one flattened out a lot. Especially down at 101 where it
apparently had picked up enough debris again to plug the freeway and/or
railroad bridges.

We sure appreciate your report! I'm glad you're safe and well, and
being careful when wandering out amid all the hazards.

nancyo...@gmail.com

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Jan 13, 2018, 6:18:59 PM1/13/18
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I saw this link on FaceBook earlier today. It's a crowd-sourced map. I'm not sure who supplies the information, but it gives you an idea of the areas that were affected by the slide.
https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid=11A7FmDgnEVJ4kkcyX5VE7WWl7r8GBwp2&ll=34.43619549548883%2C-119.63974822780841&z=14


On Tuesday, January 9, 2018 at 9:41:31 AM UTC-8, SBitz wrote:
This new topic is where we can share news and updates on the flood related disaster in the Thomas Fire burn area.

SBitz

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Jan 13, 2018, 6:36:23 PM1/13/18
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I've just sent a smaller version of this Jameson Reservoir pic to Edhat. I'd expected to see a major disaster there, since the whole watershed is burnt bare. Maybe those slopes didn't get the powerful deluge that hit our front range, or maybe the boulders are all beneath the water.

Jameson doesn't hold much water, so I presume its main function is to serve as a catch basin to hold debris that would otherwise flow into Gibraltar and Cachuma downstream. Looking more closely you can see that some debris is floating and boulders have rolled down the shallow creek going North off the middle of the far shore.

Across the ridge looking North at our front (Santa Ynez Mtns) range, you can see how the whole watershed is scorched. This catch basin (bottom-right) on Santa Monica Creek above Carp surely spared us a lot of destruction downstream.

I thought we'd snapped a pic of all the boulders and debris it stopped while allowing water to pass in the curved concrete channels at the far right end of the dam. Similar protection was provided down Toro Canyon by this catch basin here on gMaps.
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SBitz

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Jan 13, 2018, 6:40:04 PM1/13/18
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nancyoster08 wrote:
I saw this link on FaceBook earlier today. It's a crowd-sourced map.

Great resource! Thanks, Nancy. I'll try to add some pix there or at least links to SBitZ and Edhat. I'd thought about starting a wiki page for the flood too (found only brief mentions on fire pages there), but so many ideas and so little time. :)

SBitz

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Jan 13, 2018, 7:26:32 PM1/13/18
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Here's a high view of the San Ysidro Creek flooding, looking from the Eastern side. In addition to homes, you can see the major damage at Casa de Maria (top) and San Ysidro Ranch (bottom-right).
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SBitz

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Jan 13, 2018, 7:39:21 PM1/13/18
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Here's a high angle view from ~7k' of upper Hot Springs Creek, shot from the Eastern side.


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SBitz

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Jan 13, 2018, 7:49:38 PM1/13/18
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Below are views down San Ysidro Creek cropped from this high angle wide pic taken from the Western side of the creek.

First a crop of the San Ysidro Ranch area.

That's the Northern part of Casa de Maria at the lower-right. Next is a crop from Casa farther along the creek.

Continuing down the creek is this section cropped from the wide pic at the top of this post.

Last a section cropped from the right edge of the wider view in the first pic.
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SBitz

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Jan 14, 2018, 3:30:46 PM1/14/18
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Someone on Edhat shared a link to the Cal OES (California Office of Emergency Services) 1/11/18 uTube video about our flood that includes HD aerial video, a summary of work in progress, and a description of the factors involved in post-fire debris flows.


doublej

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Jan 14, 2018, 6:32:00 PM1/14/18
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Thanks for all the reporting. For some reason, opening a window that showed the "apply to group" eluded me for quite a while.
The explanation was good, but the button would not show!

Unfortunately much of the topography locally where flows begin is pretty steep. In doing a small bit of referencing, there was comment about breaking through the "waxy" layer sub surface after a wildfire that prevents the soil from absorbing water. Not much utility in using a harrow behind a tractor here.

The flow prediction maps were quite vast, and while the info was there, providing some insight as to probability or intensity may have been useful.

Section Make8R

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Jan 14, 2018, 7:26:50 PM1/14/18
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I deleted the lawsuit, as it was also removed at Nextdoor, probably still ongoing. I will try and keep stuff like that out of this site. Apologies.

Still wondering about the whole sequence, so I will the rest of my post stay. 

So my question is, I can imagine the 9 million gallons not being a great addition to this whole mess, but what are the total amounts involved coming out of the canyons.

My understanding is that the "high lines" of the MWDistrict are somewhere at the 1000 ft level, or running near the elevation of Mt Drive. I've never seen anything higher in the mts, than the Edison catways, which are up at perhaps 1500 ft.

With that in mind, and after hearing first hand reports of what came out of the canyon mouths, at Cold Springs, and Hot Springs and San Ysidro, and seeing JW's aerial photos of those exit points, I wondering if there is any merit in blaming MWD, or was their 9 million gallons just icing on the cake.


.Made it worse, certainly. Evidentally, they are still having troubles with water coming from "somewhere" reflooding the Olive Mill freeway mess.

Creeks around here also have deep bedrock channels though, and they may have been so scraped clean that they are flowing from deep down. I dont know. I have seen freshwater coming, (in wet years past) from below seawalls at the foot of San Ysidro St. aka Miramar Surf Spot.....that was weird,, I just figured it was Montecito creek, finding its way under Andy Granatellis house!!!!!!

I'm asking because I would like the truth, and not have the blame put somewhere it doesnt belong.



Im going to browse around and see if I can find any rainfall rates/square mile etc, as the cruz of this disaster, as every has pointed out, is that after a very very hot fire, the soil absorbs barely any water, and it all sheets off. (heck I learned that in 1978 at UCSB!!!)

Ok thank you

doublej

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Jan 14, 2018, 7:44:06 PM1/14/18
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1" of water on an acre of land is about 27,150 gallons.
Greater Montecito is 5,928 acres.
Multiply that out and one gets 81,460,00 gallons.
But note that is for all Montecito, and only 1" of rain.
The water highline breaks were of no help, and possibly intense in flow but 10%? more.
The rain total and intensity was by far the biggest factor beyond the soil condition due to the fire.

Section Make8R

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Jan 14, 2018, 7:55:37 PM1/14/18
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 I deleted all the previous remarks, as they were too broad. (and spastic, sorry...its been along week/month here in the bad zone)


I did some revisions, using pie shaped drainage areas, which mimic a canyon shape, as canyons do funnel everything down to the bottom. 

 So starting at Camino del Cielo and then pinpointing down to approx 192... I did several pie shapes for the different creek areas.

.In general, it seems as if each of the drainages from top to bottom is about 1000 acres + or - 100 to 300 acres, Then used the  3 inches rainfall which the 2000 ft+ level recorded (KTYD  tower recorded a bit higher, and backcountry Old Man Mountain was 5+) 

total is around 81 million gallons, so doublej your 10% estimate of the added broken mains water was spot on.


This disregards all local rainfall, in and around Montecito, I was only trying to figure out how much would come down at once, as it seems to me this is what happened.  It all then blew through the highline of MWD and added that mess to it, assuming the pipes which the slides went through then emptied themselves into that damaged area.  Confluence of bad events.
  

total is around 81 million gallons, so doublej your 10% estimate was spot on.  

 
I am interested in others thoughts on this though.   And yes different rain interpretations and check my work!!!!





SBitZ.NET

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Jan 14, 2018, 8:48:16 PM1/14/18
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In the "Flood Disaster" topic, doublej wrote:
 > "apply to group" eluded me for quite a while.

Yeh, plenty of room for improvement on this interface.

> topography locally where flows begin is pretty steep

Sure can see it in my aerials!  Every ravine has lots more boulders since the rain.

> insight as to probability or intensity may have been useful

Clearly.  This is actually one role I'd like to see Edhat, SBitZ.NET and any others offer.  A place where people with useful info can share it. My experience is that our town has a deep and wide pool of useful knowledge and info especially useful in emergencies.  With the current political climate of reducing taxes and minimizing government, seems to me we're very lucky to have even the limited info we do.  For it to be useful for me, it would be free of the trolls and grumbling on every topic I find on some sites.  Not easy to accomplish, but for now I'll happily suspend the account here of anyone who posts that sort of stuff.
  [Snip...]
Since this was intended to be a new topic, I'll start one titled About SBitZ.NET and re-post the rest of this there.

Section Make8R

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Jan 15, 2018, 12:02:36 AM1/15/18
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