Suspicious Sunday Fire

[SBitz]

Today dawns with all our hopes for a strong aerial attack and easy rapid progress for tireless ground crews. Still, many of us are suspicious about what other surprises this tricky fire might come up with. Any news, questions or visuals to share?

[Section Make8R]

Feels ok down here, 101/SanYsidro.  KEYT doing a great job with updates. No wind, but smoldering embers is still fouling air.  Great job here firefighters, yesterday was sketchy to say the least.

Website wont accept email responses from me, and locks up when refreshed and loading...no worries though.  Thank you for updates.

ps you guys dont do aerial food drops perhaps?  haha Joking.  got a garage full of neighbors aviaries and off ramps into Montecito are closed.  We do have power though.

May be on lockdown until next wednesdays next local wind event.  

[RunMinnieRun]

I wonder if anyone can help me evaluate the likely risk of fire creeping close enough to 101 again for it to be closed in Ventura today. I'm near SBitz (101/154), and there's a family event in Agoura Hills today, which would put me about an hour away if I needed to evacuate my house. (Art & photos are gone, but I don't want to unplug all computers unless evacuated, nor do I want to get "trapped" outside of the area, since my business is in Goleta area!)  I'm thinking that the fire has already burned up close to the coast. Big winds in Ventura concern me more for getting stuck "outside" than for my home right now. Any thoughts? Thanks!

On Sunday, December 17, 2017 at 1:57:59 AM UTC-8, SBitz wrote:

[topix]

Winds are looking good on this side of the county line (per charts below). The gusts we had yesterday are now affecting Ventura.  This might have indirect effects on us over here:  the National Weather Service station (@NWSLosAngeles) just tweeted that "The strong #SantaAnaWinds today will likely cause downed trees and powerlines. as well as power outages. "  So, keep your stuff plugged in while you have juice. Although I am amazed at how well the power lines have held up...kudos to Edison.

charts from http://www.rntl.net/santabarbaracountyfirecams.htm

[topix]

Here is a route from LA to Goleta in case of a 101 closure.

I just posted about the wind shift before I saw your posting, RunMinnieRun.  No one has the answer to your question, but it sounds like you are prepared...and appropriately suspicious this Sunday.

In case its helpful to others, here's how to get to Goleta side if the S 101 is closed again. I have family in LA, so I was thinking about this, too.  From the LA/Ventura side, take the 5 north, to the 166 west (just after Wheeler Ridge), then pick up the 101 south (in Santa Maria).  A long way around, but hey...no flames.

[topix]

To check for road closures, here's the CHP link
http://cad.chp.ca.gov/traffic.aspx?ddlComCenter=LACC

[topix]

Here's the official fire line from Saturday night (per @VCFD_PIO twitter), and my unofficial version (in English).

[SBitz]

Good morning. Very good. :)
I was getting a login/password on the SBARC windows left open last night. It looks like they've disabled public access to their flight tracking web page, so I've switched back to the excellent one PR created at this link.

The other SBARC page I'd left open but found disabled today is their live ham radio feed with excellent real time info collected from a vast number of sources including local fire, police and air frequencies. For anyone else interested, I've managed to get it working again on this link.

[SBitz]

This 10:30 GOES InfraRed fire detection satellite that's very low resolution but most frequently updated looks like this over the fire region. Only the one bright (high heat) detection, in the middle of Ventura County.

[SBitz]

Here's the 11am wind map from Windy at this link.

SB is in a calmer (blue) area with Santa Ana on either side of us. The stronger wind in Ventura County and smaller spot fires here is why the larger fixed wing air attack is apparently going to that fire. Helicopters are probably better for going after our smaller hotspots that aren't showing up on the GOES IR sat.

[John W SBA]

Section Make8R wrote:
> Feels ok down here, 101/SanYsidro.

Glad to know you're getting a break too. Pretty intense time you've been
through there!

> KEYT doing a great job with updates.

They've been simply *amazing* to me, even into the wee hours before I
turned in last night. They took a long break recently it seemed, with
switch to live aerial feed from the San Diego funeral procession and
long silences. Their vocal chords must be so raw from the long shifts.
Their coverage of the fire yesterday was the best I've ever seen from a
local TV station, including the bigger markets like LA.

> smoldering embers is still fouling air.

Embers are scary. Hope that's calmed down by now.

> Great job here firefighters

Just remarkable! So many from all over, yet they're working together as
a well-oiled machine. Many KEYT reports of them taking care of people's
homes and stuff as if it were their own. In some cases local
firefighters left their own families, homes and possessions at risk to
go and do that. wow.

> Website wont accept email responses from me

It's been pretty annoying, so after things calm down (January maybe?) we
could look into alternative sites to use for SBitZ.NET

> ps you guys dont do aerial food drops perhaps?

Are you inside the Mandatory zone? If we drive into town maybe we could
pick up supplies and bring them out to you. As for air drop I'd need to
do that from 10,000 feet or so, sowing birdseed over the whole city and
feeding fish out in the Channel. ;)

> have power though.

Ours didn't even flicker during yesterday's madness!

> May be on lockdown until next wednesdays next local wind event.

Maybe they'll ease up a little between now and then? KEYT is
interviewing the SBCFD right now, so maybe they'll mention something.

[SBitz]

KEYT just ended their excellent non-stop coverage so they can hopefully get some rest and start getting ad income again to pay for their remarkable community service. Their 3.2 channel still has reruns, as I type this it's the 9am report that I slept through. Thank you KEYT!

[SBitz]

Wind gusts are kicking up ash here (101@154) right now, but I'm not seeing a smoke plume. Over the SB County burn area it looks more like blown ash. Lots of it.

I'm going offline, but will check in occasionally in case anyone posts updates or questions. If I see or hear something while offline, I'll log in and post it.

[Pork Rind]

The other SBARC page I'd left open but found disabled today is their live ham radio feed with excellent real time info collected from a vast number of sources including local fire, police and air frequencies. For anyone else interested, I've managed to get it working again on this link.

I've just gotten back home and am monkeying with the radios. I'm hearing a lot of activity beyond the two air tac frequencies the SBARC crew have listed on their home page. They have

Air TAC:129.950 and 128.275

Incident command: 154.325

But I'm hearing a ton of super interesting air to ground chatter on 

CDF Tac 22: 159.405

CDF Tac 14: 159.225

CDF Tac 17: 159.315

CDF Tac 18: 159.345 

LNPF Channel 3: 170.475

 

I'm trying to sort out who's who, but what I'm currently hearing is that one of the current spotters plane has no relief in the air and is going to have to discontinue coordination for 30 minutes while he refuels at Santa Barbara Airport. There's two scooper helicopters that he'll pickup to guide once he's back in the air.

Apparently large aircraft are either inbound or soon to be so out of Santa Paula.

I'm also hearing chatter about drop needs in the Flores Flat area. 

My intent is to start streaming all this, but that requires that I find one very specific, yet not particularly unique looking USB cable for my scanner. Wish me luck.

[SBitz]

I've just gotten back home

Good news. Welcome back. Bet it feels good, even with so much disruption.

 

Apparently large aircraft are either inbound or soon to be so out of Santa Paula.

Maybe taking advantage of the helicopters being gone. Heard a report on SBARC earlier about very strong wind at SZP (Santa Paula). Hope they can get out ok, but having flown into and out of a Santa Ana there my guess is those pilots won't have trouble with it. (I won't be doing it again :)
 

I'm also hearing chatter about drop needs in the Flores Flat area. 

Scary for the folks with creative work amid the foliage up there. :(
 

find one very specific, yet not particularly unique looking USB cable... Wish me luck.

 
Good luck with that and all the other tasks you're surely facing today!

[SBitz]

On PR's air traffic site I posted a link to a while ago today I'm seeing a V10 spotter plane (presumably) at 9,500' over the fire and thought I saw a drop plane follow it in but that one disappeared off the screen. Guess it's coordinating the helicopters I'm seeing still flying drops.

[Pork Rind]

I just heard a request to raise the TFR to 10,500 ft from 9,500. Overflying GA aircraft are conflicting with operations. 

[topix]

Yup, it's windy over on the eastern edge of the fire. How bad?  CHP just issued a wind advisory (at 1:11pm) for the 23 at the 118 (near Moorpark).
http://cad.chp.ca.gov/traffic.aspx?ddlComCenter=LACC

[Pork Rind]

Who wants to play guinea pig?

I have my scanner streaming at...

http://184.189.223.251:5000

...it is the jury-riggest thing I've ever seen. Give it a go and please provide feedback,

[Section Make8R]

>Are you inside the Mandatory zone? If we drive into town maybe we could 
pick up supplies and bring them out to you. As for air drop I'd need to 
do that from 10,000 feet or so, sowing birdseed over the whole city and 
feeding fish out in the Channel. ;)

  I was just joking,  (somewhat) If the mandatory evac lasts past wednesday, things get iffy. 

Got supplies and water, but this place (old estate) needs people to help keep it running. Im here with the owners. I'll drink out of the fish pond, it things get rough...ha...but probably not them.

 We are in "safe" zone, hedgerow district, defensible space, as long as water pressure holds. Tile roofs, concrete walls and surfaces etc.  Wide roads here so  we wouldnt mess firefighters up.  I totally understand the need to evac up in the hills though,I can barely take my Tundra pickup through there on good days....let alone somewhere like the Riviera. 

I understand the call to  keep up the mandatory evac up in the foothills, pretty much for all of SB, I would be great if they lifted it up abit to the 101 even, or the 192 perhaps. I have a "secret" creek tunnel to use to get under the 101, might use that if they only lift the evac from the ocean up abit.                       

 If we have another NE or straight N wind event that makes it to the beach, there is still a major amount of fuel that could go up.  We've had some sundowners here (Jan 95?) that were pretty much insane, hurricane style,trees over,couldnt enter or leave without a chainsaw.  That sort of thing is something to watch for.  Next wind even seems medium to moderate,but with the bare hills?  Unknown.

Helicopters down here all day, backand forth, lots of hot spots to deal with.  Those guys really rock n roll.

 

Hope everyone out there is safe. Dont let the frustration get to you!!!   

 

 

[SBitz]

Pork Rind wrote:

Who wants to play guinea pig?

Deaf pig reporting: cool interface, audio very loud until I managed to click it down to lowest setting above off. Pretty random info, but probably some real gems in there, esp. for a scanner expert. At the moment, something unintelligible. Turning it off now for my wife's sanity.

KEYT has beautiful shots of the super scooper amphibious planes doing drops.

[Section Make8R]

First responses are garbled/screeching and cannot be understood, 2nd response(s) was clear and easy to understand.  Mostly garbled now? Long periods of silence. low static. 5 minutes listening.    

[SBitz]

Helicopters have been picking up water in or near Lauro Res, but just saw one come for PhosChek at Salvar Bridge ("to nowhere"). Guess this means the water drops have hit enough of the active hotspots and threatened structures that they're starting some fire line protection.

[topix]

A litte good news for Carp...

The EVACUATION ORDER has been lifted for all areas north of Hwy 192 to the National Forest boundary between Cravens Ln & Casitas Pass Rd.

Tweet from @SBCityOES_RH (10 minutes ago) 

[topix]

Evacuation Orders have been lifted for the following areas (from the official press relase issued at 2pm, see attached):
• North of SR 192 (Foothill Road) to the southern boundary of the Los Padres national Forest in between Cravens Lane and Casitas Pass Road. The evacuation order remains in place inside the Los Padres National Forest, and
• North of SR 192 (Foothill Road) to East Camino Cielo in between Casitas Pass Road and the Santa Barbara/Ventura County Line, and
• North of Hwy 101 and south of SR 192 (Foothill Road) in between Cravens Lane and Casitas Pass Road.
For questions, please call the Thomas Fire Information Help Line at 681-5542.

[Pork Rind]

On Sunday, December 17, 2017 at 2:06:16 PM UTC-8, SBitz wrote:

Deaf pig reporting: cool interface, audio very loud until I managed to click it down to lowest setting above off. Pretty random info, but probably some real gems in there, esp. for a scanner expert. At the moment, something unintelligible. Turning it off now for my wife's sanity.

On Sunday, December 17, 2017 at 2:09:07 PM UTC-8, Section Make8R wrote:

First responses are garbled/screeching and cannot be understood, 2nd response(s) was clear and easy to understand.  Mostly garbled now? Long periods of silence. low static. 5 minutes listening.    

Thanks for the feedback. There's a couple issues in play here...

1. At these frequencies, all communication is line of sight. I'm pretty low, right behind the Mission. Even though I have God's own antenna for this stuff, guys down in a canyon or otherwise obscured by a ridge will sound moderately bad to terrible. Only solution there is to get the antenna higher, but when my wife saw me drag this antenna out of storage and grab a ladder, she just said, "No."

2. Turns out my memory of how the data cable to this scanner works was wrong. It doesn't carry audio, just operation information. I can't find an audio interface for my Mac in my box of junk, so the scanner is just propped up next to where I assume the microphone is. I told you all that it was a jury-rigged operation. 

I'm gonna paw through my boxes of assorted computer junk and see if I have a better solution. The nice thing about this interface when it's working is that users can directly manipulate the scanner. Useful when it gets stuck on distant unintelligible communications.

If anyone has a map that shows how the fire crews have broken up the area, that would help playing along at home. Seems to be all two letter codes. For example, "romeo romeo" appears to be an active area. given the number of communications about it. 

[topix]

Here's an updated map but it does NOT have the section-by-section markings that PorkRind is looking for.  Hope it will at least be of general interest.
 (it's a huge file so I didn't post the original.  click on the 2nd link for a hi res version):
Thomas Fire Morning Update for December 17, 2017
Thomas Fire Information Map for December 17, 2017

[Pork Rind]

Not that we don't already know that the pilots out working the fire possess an extra measure of both bravery AND skill, I just heard someone on frequency tell a helo pilot that he needed to gain altitude to clear some powerlines. The response? "Nah, I'll just go under them."

[SBitz]

Here's the 2:30pm GOES IR sat with brightness pumped up to show the dim fire detections in SB County. That brightest hotspot near the East V.Co. line has been going hot/cold for a while, and hotter in this one than I've seen it. I've been seeing and hearing about fixed wing air attacks on it, so they're probably trying to limit its run in the wind there.

[topix]

Here's the ops map (with sectors and divisions) that PorkRind was looking for.
It's a huge file, so I didn't incl. the actual file, just a link:
https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/map/5670/3/76793/

[Pork Rind]

Thank you!

[SBitz]

Here's how the Thomas Fire looked on today's pass of the color satellite. Smoke much reduced, even from Ventura County. Santa Barbara County smoke was pretty dispersed among lots of spot fires, and probably some ash kicked up by wind.

Looks like the flare in East V.Co. was knocked down when the sat went over and shot this (don't know the time). Fascinating how the wider jet contrail off the West coast is just a short bit of air that was conducive to ice formation - high enough to cast a long shadow on the water (above it in pic). The shorter one was probably more recent, and perhaps the plane was climbing into that air and making the line shorter or the air there was that little bit different. Look at me pondering contrails after two weeks of fire obsession. :)

[SBitz]

GOES IR sat 3:30pm with brightness pumped up some:

Same thing half an hour later at 4pm. That area of our monster Thomas Fire is still playing Whack-A-Mole with firefighters.


NOAA surface smoke forecast for 10am:

Their prediction for how the whole air column would look then, affecting a rather larger area:

[SBitz]

Aviation wind forecast indicates the smoke starting to clear in the morning. Right now it shows wind up at 3,000' from the East bringing in smoke from V.Co and the North edge of SB Co. fire. The IR sat shows V.Co. quieter at 5pm, but the BC Pk night camera is in that fairly thick blown in haze of ash and smoke so you can't see much. Here's the AQI for 5pm, but it varies a lot outside right now so we're keeping masks on outdoors and minimizing all activity because the inside air isn't good either.

[SBitz]

Since we have a good view of the fire area, backup power, and lots of info (thanks to SBitZ.NET volunteers!) we didn't evacuate. Most of our neighbors did, so we've been watching and checking on their houses. So on my 5pm rounds I snapped this view of the sunset to share with those out of town wondering how the sky looks. It's been thin white haze here (101@154) all day but at dusk the redder smoke hues from higher and thicker smoke came out.

[topix]

live briefing on the fire is on now (6-7pm)
http://www.keyt.com/news/thomas-fire-coverage-continues-with-a-press-briefing-at-6-pm/670698437

[Pork Rind]

Here's a great video from the cockpit of one of the Pt. Mugu C-130s making a drop on the Thomas fire. Watch very closely to see the guide plane leading in the near distance. I missed it the first time...

https://youtu.be/FQ7deFN0Hwk

[SBitz]

Pork Rind wrote:

Here's a great video from the cockpit

Love it! Thanks for the link, PR. Such familiar terrain though the speed, altitude and most of the radio calls differ somewhat. :)

[Pork Rind]

On Sunday, December 17, 2017 at 7:53:53 PM UTC-8, SBitz wrote

>
> Love it! Thanks for the link, PR. Such familiar terrain though the speed, altitude and most of the radio calls differ somewhat. :)

I’ll guess the 172 carries a little less fire retardant. Does the drop procedure consist of the passenger opening the door and dumping the contents of a thermos into the slipstream?

Back to the video though, maybe my favorite part is the circle back to take a good look at their handiwork on the suggestion of the guide pilot. I’d do it too.

[SBitz]

passenger opening the door and dumping the contents of a thermos into the slipstream?

All but impossible to open the door more than an inch in flight due to the slipstream, so you'd have to use the window. Then you'd end up wearing most of it.

favorite part is the circle back to take a good look

It's fun to watch from safely outside the TFR. Don't know if you noticed, but the lead plane paints a small white line where they want the drop. The drop pilots usually nail that, but intuitively add their own flourish before and/or after while correcting for wind drift. In the pic I posted of a c130 drop you can see the white line churned up by the drop. What's truly amazing is to watch one of the really big jets do this stuff. Akin to an elephant doing pirouettes on a dime.