Surprise Saturday Fire

[SBitz]

As I launch this topic just after midnight Saturday morning, the surprise is how quiet the fire is given how it looked at sunset and the scary winds that were forecast. The title may also reflect what we wake to in a few hours if the wind does manage to resuscitate Thomas and burn through more of SB County. If you see something, please post and say something. Hope we're all safe tonight and wake to our first clear day since the smoke arrived.

[SBitz]

Here are a few pix I like from our Friday sunset flight over the fire. Taking them I imagined they'd be useful for people wanting to know where the active fire was as the wind picked up. Now that it's been several hours with no sign of satellite fire detection, I'm going to post a few that for me show the horrible beauty of a raging monstrous fire I hope we've seen the end of. I'll start with this wavy clinging sunset smoke over the mountains.

A dramatic fire scene over in the Santa Ynez River valley, apparently a base camp that's lit a back fire to stop the western advance.

A parade of large fixed wing aircraft that been hammering the North side of the ridge to slow any potential spread over the top.

One of those drops - PhosChek from a C130 tanker.

Last, this view of the creek (San Ysidro?) where they apparently managed to stop the fire's gnawing Western advance.

Now, having just checked one last time on the 12:30 am GOES IR sat and finding there still are no fire detections, I'm going to join everyone else who I hope is sleeping soundly. I'm very much appreciating everyone who's contributed here, and all the reporting by KEYT, Edhat and so many other sources. Good night.

[SBitz]

KEYT has some info about that flareup visible in Montecito. Looks like Thomas is awake and munching its way up the slope in the upper San Ysidro Creek area. KEYT is the only coverage I've found so far, with occasional live views. Wind is apparently light from the West, so hopefully no structures threatened unless/until the wind picks up.

They report 101 North is still closed at Turnpike due to the overturned tanker truck, with traffic rerouted around it and reopening predicted at 9am. That coupled with the closure of 154 for fire vehicle movement will make movement to the North quite a mess.

I'm offline again for a while, but hopefully someone in the area can post updates.

[Section Make8R]

yes quick update, muching up the west face of the SY canyon now... quiet all night though, but raging up the west face of the canyon....no wind down here at 101  gentle north, but smoke is wafting  overhead towards SB...thanx for pics...will check later....going to scope progress from theroof whilst I canstill see it...

[Section Make8R]

up and over San Ysidro, and then up and over Hot Springs too....down here its feeding itself with south winds....the Tea Garden did this and it was strange....pretty out of control up on the ridges...but not too much down below.....it runs into the Tea Fire burn zone next////////   I watched a little spot fire just take out a section of Hot Springs....maybe the whole thing....just nuts....ok bye

[topix]

breaking...evac VOLUNTARY warning
everything west of San Marcos Road and north of Cathedral Oaks
w of SB city
n san marcos rd to 154
n of cathedral oaks and east of san marcos

I've been listening to the live feed of the fire ops on youtube "AI6YR Live Stream - Thomas Fire - Fire Command Channel" at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E_IDVtkf8m4 

-- the 101 is getting shut down N of Seacliff,
-- county web site is down or overloaded (http://countyofsb.org/thomasfire.sbc)
--evacs are mandatory basically everywhere NE of APS

[topix]

Closure of US-101 NORTHBOUND in some locations
From Seacliff to Turnpike, there are problems.
1.  CHP reports that "Due to the mandatory evacuation order in Montecito the northbound US-101 will be closing @ Seacliff. CHP is making preparations. Avoid area!"
2.  At Turnpike, an oil tanker overturned last night and shut down the 101.  If you are on the 101 at Turnpike, police are routing people off at the exit ramp, and then right back on at the on ramp.  So it's a small detour but will cause northbound delays.  State/Hollister is a good northbound (yes, it's actually westerly) alternative
google map is from 9:30AM today

[Bob37]

Weather station on Cold springs trail shows 60mph+ gusts on the 8 and 9:00 am readings, steady 30 mph. 

Link http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=sto&raw=0&dbn=m&sid=MTIC1&num=48

[Bob37]

The Santa Barbara County Sheriff's Office issued new mandatory evacuation orders for parts of Montecito and Summerland: ï‚· The area north of Highway 101, south of 192, west of Toro Canyon Road, and east of Summit Road/east of the Country Club. Residents should leave immediately. Voluntary evacuation warnings for parts of the Montecito area including all areas south of Highway 101 to the Pacific Ocean and east of the zoo (Ninos Drive) to San Ysidro Road. Residents should be prepared to leave in a moment's notice.he .

[topix]

The following off ramps along US 101 are closed to restrict access to evacuation areas: NORTHBOUND - Padaro/Santa Claus Ln.; Evans St; Sheffield Dr; San Ysidro Rd; Olive Mill Rd; Hermosillo Rd; Cabrillo Bl/Hot Springs Rd

according to twitter @countyofsb as of 10am today

[topix]

latest evac map - red mandatory, yellow voluntary. 

live link is also current now:   https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/viewer?mid=1ASoCEnK1yHaI2Of55E92EXF69JdFdIp-&ll=34.42628301791248%2C-119.50827500000003&z=12

[Pork Rind]

Well, I got home about midnight last night and had hoped to setup a live feed consolidating several scanner frequencies, but the bad news of this AM has me out and back on the road. For those that have interest and access to a radio that will tune amateur frequencies, here's some information from the Santa Barbara Amateur Radio Club.

 

*** THOMAS FIRE UPDATE ***

In light of this morning’s developments regarding the Thomas Fire in Santa Barbara, local radio amateurs are are conducting an intensive net on the K6TZ repeaters to collect and disseminate fire information including information about aerial firefighting operations, weather conditions, evacuation orders and traffic and road conditions.
Anyone may listen to the K6TZ repeaters over the air or to the streaming audio online (when internet is available). All licensed radio amateurs are encouraged to check in and report relevant information, inquire about current conditions, and of course ask for radio checks as necessary.  Please adhere to the following operating procedures:
Listen for 30 seconds or so and yield to other priority traffic in progress
Announce your call sign and ask if there is any pending traffic before proceeding
Please keep your traffic brief and go to another repeater if you can. Here are some alternatives:

 

WB6OBB Repeater: 147.000 PL 131.8 plus
KD6OVS Repeater: 147.700 PL 131.8 minus
K6TZ and PAPA DMR Repeaters
 
At the present time, the following SBARC repeaters are linked
K6TZ 146.79
K6TZ 70cm 446.400
K6TZ 6m 51.820 PL 82.5
K6TZ 1.25m 224.08 may be linked when required

 

All repeaters are standard offset and PL 131.8 (except where noted)
Visit www.sbarc.org for more information including scanner frequencies, ICS radio comm plans, aerial firefighting support tracking live map, and links to official updates and evacuation maps.

 

Levi C. Maaia, K6LCM
Director at Large | Co-Chair, Telecommunications Services Committee
Santa Barbara Amateur Radio Club, Inc.

[topix]

For live heli/fixed wing flight paths, go to
http://vrs.earthspot.net:8080/VirtualRadar/desktop.html

[Pork Rind]

The live stream at https://www.sbarc.org/k6tz-repeater-live-audio-and-archive/

...is definitely worth a listen. They’re synthesizing a lot of different info sources and in some cases have been quite a bit more current than what I’m seeing on TV.

[SBitz]

KEYT coverage is pretty good too, and they've started sending their audio to some radio stations to help those w/o TV. Frequencies I typed in (presumably all FM) are 101.7, 99.9, and 99.0 but there were one or two more mentioned that I didn't catch. If someone has corrections or additions, please add. Note that most smartphones (at least Android) have FM radios built in that aren't described in the manual. That lets you get news w/o using your data, and some of the stations have backup power so they stay on-air during a power outage. The feature often works by using the wire to your earbuds for an antenna. You probably need to download a free app if there's not one included with the phone.

On another note, a few minutes ago I saw a C130 climbing out along the ridge to the West so maybe they're starting to do drops. Haven't checked online yet, still getting back up to speed. SO appreciative of all the posts here while I managed to get some shuteye. Thank you all!

[SBitz]

Another fire reported in Los Alamos.

[Pork Rind]

On Saturday, December 16, 2017 at 12:23:30 PM UTC-8, SBitz wrote:

On another note, a few minutes ago I saw a C130 climbing out along the ridge to the West so maybe they're starting to do drops. Haven't checked online yet, still getting back up to speed. SO appreciative of all the posts here while I managed to get some shuteye. Thank you all!

The SBARC guys are reporting a C-130 and a BAE-146 both working the fire at the moment. 

[SBitz]

Broadcast Peak view to the East right now. Tall plume and dense smoke. Gibraltar Peak still visible.

[topix]

Great site showing wind patterns  https://www.windy.com/?34.454,-119.800,8
(credit for this info goes to the local ham radio club K6TZ)

[SBitz]

BC Pk to West shows the Los Alamos fire, looks like a pretty small plume (white smoke, middle of pic) still and somewhat straight up so with the air attack they might be able to knock it down.

[topix]

on a related note, here's info on wind gusts in the area which are around 30-50 mph. 
(http://www.rntl.net/santabarbaracountyfirecams.htm)
20:00 GMT = 1pm local time

[SBitZ.NET]

KSBA now closed to commercial traffic. ATC evacuated. Still open for
small planes without ATC and radar vectoring (see and be seen like the
old days). Fire in Los Alamos reported at 25 acres.

[SBitz]

I've been having some trouble with the SBitZ.NET web interface, so have been following it via email. Keep in mind that this capability is only available to Members. At this point I'm the only volunteer watching for Member applications, so if someone who's already a Member would like to volunteer for that please let me know.

I heard on the local ham radio feed that some airlines are still active and airline terminal open at KSBA even though the tower and ATC services have been reported closed (I've not checked to verify).

Smoke plume was blowing SW over town, but has just now shifted back more toward the West.

Just heard a report that the fire has reached prior burn areas and headed North to Camino Cielo, with no further movement West at present.  I still have a clear view of Gibraltar Peak broadcast towers from here (101@154) so the fire has definitely not reached there.

Salvar Bridge ("to nowhere") 154@Foothill is reactivated and they're attacking the fire with helicopters.

The fire at Los Alamos has apparently been pretty much knocked down with containment expected tonite. Right now there's an observation plane circling it, but the big tankers they used to douse it may start attacking the Montecito burn again soon.

[SBitz]

Just checked the KSBA automated weather broadcast and can confirm that KSBA services did close at 1:15pm and will reopen at 6pm.

[SBitz]

Update on KEYT TV Live News audio available on radio stations at these frequencies: 101.7, 99.9, 92.9, 94.1, 107.7 (all FM); and 990 (AM).

Most smartphones (esp. Android) have built-in FM radio capability but may lack the app to use it. You typically need earbuds, which serve as the antenna. Free apps are available to use this feature.

[SBitz]

Smoke coming West over the ridge near Gibraltar Peak, heaviest on the lower slope. Main plume still to the East of that ridge. I'll check on it again in a while and try to get a vantage point for a clear zoom pic to post. Here's how it looks on the wide angle camera on Broadcast Peak looking East.

Can't tell if the taller white plume is from Fillmore, but there's been a lot of fire activity there.

[SBitz]

KETY has been going live to a Eurocopter that's showing aerial views of the fire from several angles. The TV station (presumably LA station) it's coming from adds some orienting info like major roads and freeways to help you figure out what it's showin.

[SBitz]

KEYT reports 101 fully open again at Turnpike.

[SBitz]

Helicopter sporadically feeding live video to KEYT is apparently an official fire survey.

Here's how the roads look on gMaps, and you can click this link for updates: gMaps Traffic SB coast.

[SBitz]

Small spot fire now visible [edit: from 101@154] on the West side of the lower ridge near Gibraltar Rd. Don't know the exact location.

Currently live fire command update on KEYT.

[topix]

There's a community briefing right now at http://www.keyt.com/news/thomas-fire-live-coverage-continues

Meanwhile, here's a screen shot of where the current fire edge  is (also consistent with scanner reports, which tend to be more accurate/timely ).  The fire is between Cold Spring and Hot Spring roads, close to the haripin turn on Gibralter Road (above Cielito and Westmont College). It is still EAST of Gibralter, but tat could change and soon.  There are reports of spot fires in Parma Park above SB ( I suspect this is the location of the new fire spot SBitz noted a few minutes ago).

This is a wind-driven, ground-attack fire.  The air is too turbulent and smoky for effective air attack.

[SBitz]

Glimpses of large flames visible from 101@154, at or near the top of the Gibraltar area.

[SBitz]

CHP reporting 154 closed at Foothill.

[SBitz]

I just saw a twin engine medium-size amphibious air attack plane flying along Camino Cielo, probably for a water drop to ensure the fire doesn't sneak over the ridge. Smoke plume is tilted toward the SW and then bends more horizontal WSW at the ridge line.

[topix]

Power outages: (per SoCal Edison) As of 3:00 p.m., there are currently 1,255 customers in the Montecito area. An additional 594 customers remain currently without power in other areas due to the Thomas fire. SCE system-wide there are 2,617 customers without power (that includes those impacted by the fires). All customers impacted by the Creek Liberty, and Rye fires have power restored.
https://www.sce.com/wps/portal/home/outage-center/check-outage-status/

[Section Make8R]

Power back on......I appear to be in the middle of the two firezones, patch of blue sky here all day.  101/SanYsidro

 Park Lane area erupted earlier.... has calmed down now. Parma Park according to KETY has some serious spots  burning. at 6:00pm   Winds here have been circling all day...some bad NE gusts, and then the slow south flow to feed into the fire (I believe)....ok everyone stay safe, I see power lines are in the fire zone, so I may lose power again. 

I think I watched the fire blow up this morning......pretty intense.     

[SBitz]

Just heard that fire passed the transmitters on Gibraltar Peak, that there was a PhosChek drop, and at least some are still on air.

[SBitz]

Pix of the flames visible along the ridge in the Gibraltar area as seen from 101@154 about 6:45pm. Tallest flames at the largest area near the top were quite high, at least 100' and probably more. As of this writing the flames have died way down all along that front for whatever reason. Possibly burning down slope beyond a nearer ridge, though the glow in the smoke above is less now too. I've not tried to determine exact locations, but could do so in gMaps or gEarth if anyone needs that. In this first pic I've added an inset from a zoom shot for more clarity on that portion. The flames aren't distinguishable due to being overexposed to better show the smaller fires, but if you open it in an editor and turn the brightness way down you might be able to make out the largest flame outlines.

Below a wider shot showing more spot fires further down the slope toward the South.

[SBitz]

Ham radio operator near the fire reports wind there from the East at 22mph, and the fire is moving downslope. Don't know if that's to the West or South, but more likely the West.

[SBitz]

Glow from the fire is even further reduced now, as seen from 101@154. Quite faint at the top.

[SBitz]

KEYT is reporting there's one night-capable helicopter and possibly another is preparing to fly some night fire suppression drops from the Carpinteria coast area. I'm seeing a King Air fixed wing flying circuits over the area, possibly detecting hotspots to target or preparing to direct the helicopter(s).

[topix]

There is a scouting plane surveying the area that flew out of San Diego.  According to the manufacturer of the N1459, "the aircraft...is equipped with a belly search radome, electro-optic/infrared (EO/IR) lift and additional special mission equipment."

[SBitz]

An excellent resource for live info is our local Santa Barbara Amateur Radio Club (SBARC) that's be an essential volunteer organization since 1920.

•One of the innumerable things they've done is to set up this website where you can watch live air traffic: SBARC Earthspot
I'm not seeing the aforementioned helicopter on it, and there are other aircraft it doesn't detect for a variety of technical reasons, but's one of the better such sites for local air traffic. It's very configurable by users.

•Another very useful SBARC resource for fire info is their online feed of live reports from local ham radio operators. They monitor and report on a wide variety of sources including air, fire and police frequencies, and add their on-site reports from many locations in and around the fire. It's their K6TZ Repeater and is available online or on the ham frequencies listed on their site at this link and elsewhere.

[SBitz]

SBitz wrote:

website where you can watch live air traffic: SBARC Earthspot

On that site, the default map doesn't show much detail so I'll outline a few settings I've found helpful if your computer or other viewing device displays and can handle them. When you're using the SBARC Earthspot site and listening to their K6TZ Repeater, you'll hear occasionally hear mention of what it's displaying. I find it useful to keep them both open in different browser windows.

•At the top-right of the map portion of the site is a rectangular box labeled "Contrast" that you can pull-down that menu and select Terrain (2nd from the bottom) to get great detail you can zoom in on and compare with other stuff you find that's using gMaps Terrain mode.

•At the top-left of this same map screen is a box with a gear icon named "Menu" that you can click. The third option from the bottom of the menu that pops down is "Shortcuts" where you can click "Pause" to minimize your data use while retaining your settings.

•If you click the Menu then "Options" and then "Filters" you can disable all the airliners high above that are irrelevant to the fire. Because the FAA has issued a massive Temporary Flight Restriction (TFR) over SB & Ventura County areas in the fire area, only fire aircraft can fly below the 9,500' TFR. So next click "Filters" then the Enable checkbox, then pull down the box labeled Airports. Pull that down and select the next item down named "Altitude" and click the "+Add Filter" box. "Between" appears and to the right of it, type in the number 1 to set the lowest altitude at which an aircraft will be displayed. In the next box to the right, type in 13000 and pretty much only fire aircraft and the occasional news helicopter will show up over the fire area. Instead of 13000 you can of course type in 9500 to stop displaying the news flights. If you don't have an easy way to input those numbers you can use the up arrows next to the boxes to input the numbers you want. Note that right now there's a fire survey aircraft up above 16,000' if you'd like to watch it.

•Other settings I like are:

 *Menu/Shortucts/Disable Auto Select.

 *In the Menu/Options/Aircraft items:

  +Number of label lines: 2

  +Aircraft label line 2: Altitude

  +Show Short Tails

[topix]

What is the consensus on where the fire is at and where it is headed tonight? From what I can surmise, the head of the fire is just west of Gibralter by the transmission towers.  It has reached the Jesusita burn scar, which has reduced the fire intensity. The winds (current and thru the night) are from the N / NE and likely to be 20-40 mph, with higher gusts.  And spot fires are developing along Rattlesnake Canyon, everywhere from Flores Flats (N) to Parma Park.(S).  Any reports of fires yet in Mission Canyon?

BTW, the air attack helicopter was just on KEYT.  It's from a SB county unit (joint Sherrif and Fire Dept ) using Huey helicopters flown by pilots wearing night-vision goggles.  The heli can hold 350K gallons of water for drops.  Very cool.

[SBitz]

The TFR looks like this on an aviation (Sectional) map:

So any aircraft at less than 9,500' above sea level inside that red polygon will be authorized fire aircraft. Below is a larger scale crop of the SW corner of the TFR over the SB coast (the outline of city lights is solid yellow).


If anyone wants to draw the TFR on any maps, here are the coordinates and details from the FAA:

Region bounded by:
		Latitude: Longitude: FRD: From: 34º45'55"N 119º33'10"W RZS021018.7 To: 34º43'38"N 118º57'51"W FIM335022.6 To: 34º24'37"N 118º47'08"W FIM041005.7 To: 34º15'34"N 119º19'09"W FIM240022.5 To: 34º27'18"N 119º49'34"W RZS206004.3 To: 34º42'11"N 119º46'02"W RZS347011.6
		Altitude: From the surface up to and including 9500 feet MSL
Effective Date(s):
		From December 12, 2017 at 0215 UTC
		To February 12, 2018 at 0215 UTC

[Pork Rind]

> I'm not seeing the aforementioned helicopter on it, and there are other aircraft it doesn't detect for a variety of technical reasons, but's one of the better such sites for local air traffic.

When I’m seriously monitoring the local air traffic, I will have their tracking page open as well as my site and the ADSBExchange site...

Http://184.189.223.251:8080
Http://ADSBExchange.com

Variations of the technical implementation plus some limitations on the 'sharability' of computed positions mean that no one site has the entire picture to date. SBARC has the superior local antenna positioning though so they have probably the best single picture. I don’t think they monitor 978 MHz though.

[SBitz]

Topix wrote:

What is the consensus on where the fire is at

Your surmise that it's West of Gibraltar (and more or less South from there in assorted spot fires) matches what I've seen from here 101@154. That's the area in those pix I posted earlier (was it 7ish? time is seriously warped). The glow that was barely detectable with the naked eye a while ago is now brighter with some fairly tall flame (maybe 300') showing occasionally, but much smaller than the monster fire at that same area in the prior pix.

 

and where it is headed tonight?

Fire and Sheriff reps on what KEYT could get of the evening update conference both said nobody knows. Far too many variables, especially the wind. So far the wind reported doesn't match my understanding of a typical sundowner or Santa Ana. Strong winds in opposite directions a mile or two apart. Totally calm here 101@154 for hours now.

SBARC just reported it jumped Gibraltar Road but has calmed down.

 

Any reports of fires yet in Mission Canyon?

None I know of.

 

BTW, the air attack helicopter was just on KEYT.

Wish we had a fleet of those, only maybe the largest helicopters in production rather than that cool zippy little guy. While we're at it, let's have everything up to and beyond the 747 with full night capability. Maybe we'd have ended this thing days ago. Yes, I'm a dreamer.

[SBitz]

When I’m seriously monitoring the local air traffic, I will have their tracking page open as well as my site and the ADSBExchange site...

I'm seriously jealous. One reason I've settled on the SBARC site is it seems to least tax my collection of antique computers. ADSBExchange is the worst, ramping up fan speed to "hover" mode on my MacBook.

 

 I don’t think they monitor 978 MHz though

I thought they must be, due to seeing so much traffic but I've not checked. I briefly had it open next to yours and they pretty much matched. I guess you've done much more exhaustive research, before we all had the distraction of flames and smoke menacing our existence and stuff. :)

[SBitz]

BC Pk night camera looking East w/brightness pumped way up:

Just a tiny fire gremlin peeking over the ridge, city relatively clear of smoke,no monster plumes visible. What will it look like in a few minutes I wonder.

[SBitz]

A website note: when it stalls (especially if I've hit the Refresh button up top) I just reload the page in my browser and it seems to come up pretty quickly.

Did anyone get the URL (web address) that was announced a while ago on the SBARC feed?

[topix]

https://www.sbarc.org/

[SBitz]

https://www.sbarc.org/

Sorry I wasn't more clear. I'm listening on the SBARC feed, and a while ago heard in the background someone describing a website where they're finding good info. My vague notion is that it had something to do with fire info. I thought there was another mention more recently talking about links with maps and such so I don't know if it's another radio frequency,  a website, or two different things I didn't catch.

[SBitz]

Looks like Tommy's nap time. The fire seems to be taking a smoke break, possibly cooling down until we look away for a few minutes. Here are the 10pm and 10:30 GOES low-res IR satellite views of the fire region (both Counties), with brightness pumped up to make dim detections more visible.

10:30pm below.

[SBitz]

BC Pk live night cam view to the East with brightness pumped way up.

[topix]

Oh, of course. I also heard him mention a fire map site, but it sounded familiar as one that I dropped in favor of caltopo.com

I didn't write what he said down, but I think it was either
the inciweb site: https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/5670/  (which has more types of info, but is often hours out of date)
OR
https://maps.nwcg.gov/sa/#/%3F/34.4406/-119.3787/11 (which has the usual satellite info, which is only as current as the sat info :-)

[SBitz]

Thomas the Engine (of destruction) posed for this lovely color satellite photo sometime today. Red dots were added from IR fire detections. Tom's smoke is gray as you can see where he reached out a smoke finger to the high white clouds.

[SBitz]

the inciweb site: https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/5670/ 

Thanks. Maybe that was it. Sounded better than what I've seen there, but it did seem to me that inci was in the URL. I'll go take another rummage around InciWeb and will report back if I find something new to me.

[SBitz]

One of the InciWeb maps we've used is this evac map. They also have a very large historic fire map with Thomas on it dated 12/15 but looking more current to me. I've made a smaller version of it, but at half a megabyte file size still I'm going to hold off posting in case some readers have limited net access. If you want a copy, just email me privately. Their map page is a good collection of the maps you'll find scattered around elsewhere. The fire progression map for this evening is small enough that I could crop out the SB area to make the file size only 154k so here it is:

[SBitz]

I'm going offline for a while and take a break, but will probably be up all night unless it becomes clear there's no chance of another freak wind event waking the beast. Before going offline in such event, I'll post any and all relevant info at the root of such a decision. Meanwhile I'm overflowing with appreciation for everyone who's generously given of their time sharing info here. Thank you! :)

[topix]

I've created an update to the map SBitz just posted that shows today's activity.  It's unofficial, but the boundaries I marked in purple seem consistent with all reports we're collectively tracked today.  I've zoomed into the active western head of the fire. 

Take a well deserved break, SBitz.  My spouse and I are over by Turnpike and Cathedral Oaks (SW of both voluntary evac zones), but I know that many of the other active posters are under some sort of evac order.  Hang in there, everyone. There are 8400 firefighters working this fire.

[SBitz]

Topix wrote:

I've created an update to the map SBitz just posted that shows today's activity. 

This is wonderful, Topix! It seemed so much bigger blazing across the mountain. I tried to refine it on gEarth by comparing the hill profile with the wider of my fire shots posted earlier tonight, but gave up in defeat. All but impossible with such limited terrain visible in the night shot and the vast difference between gEarth's "wide angle lens" and the telephoto I used.

 

Take a well deserved break, SBitz.

Thanks for the encouragement, but I've just come back online and want to invest some time looking stuff up. I sleep soundly and would very much like to awaken to this delightful life in paradise again. It does look like we're ok for the night, but more data will help confirm that. Hey, with your talent please help me think up a name for tomorrow's topic. I was thinking Suspicious Sunday, and then noticed you might still be online. :)

 

  My spouse and I are over by Turnpike and Cathedral Oaks

Not that far from us 101@154 just outside the voluntary zone. If things go nuts again let's meet up at the shelter. ;)

A Cessna Citation jet (N144Z) out of Santa Maria just flew a grid over the fire, so somewhere in the vast data collection for this fire there's going to be a very exact map of what's burned and where hotspots remain. Hopefully conditions will permit an all out air assault at daybreak. KEYT just reported light wind at the fire here, but it's looking like a building Santa Ana near Santa Paula.

[SBitz]

The CONUS smoke forecast map right now reflects how soundly our dragon is sleeping, and gives some hope that if they manage to keep it slumbering the air might clear.

[SBitz]

The 12:30am GOES IR sat, with brightness pumped all the way up to the file noise level. Black. Even in Ventura County. I like this. :)


Live view of the night camera looking East from BC Pk. with brightness pumped way up. I've put white ovals around the tiny places that look to me like possible hotspots. The brighter stuff is almost certainly lights from various sources. What makes me imagine those circled items could be fire is the lower intensity and haze around and above them that could be smoke. Keep in mind that this is from a very sensitive b/w night camera, so you'd never see these standing there with a telescope.  I like how this looks. Best night view I can recall since Thomas started.

[SBitz]

Here's a rather nerdy aviation wind forecast that maps the high and low pressure areas that are the dancing bears keeping this crazy weather going.

The "flagpoles" point toward the wind, and the number of flags indicate the wind strength. The colors show that wind strength graphically. Here's the same info with arrows for wind direction and the same color code for strength. The small blob of faster wind color and giant one offshore (inside light blue lighter wind) at Point Conception is up to 36mph.

Here's how it looks up at 3,000' above sea level. Also relatively light wind (below 18mph). Probably much less than that.

Lastly, here's the 2am wind up at 6,000' - also light wind. Unusually so that high up in this weather pattern. I like this. :)
I do see a small area of stronger wind (up to 24mph) from 3-6pm over SB, but after what we've just survived it doesn't seem very worrisome. KEYT TV weather forecast also calls for a break in the wind.

[SBitz]

Still no fire detection in the latest GOES IR sat, and everyone else seems to have felt safe (or exhausted) enough to turn in. So I'm going to tune out and turn off. Hope everyone has a restful night and that we might be able to begin inching back to our lives and the holiday season tomorrow. As a last post here I'll start a new topic for the early birds to populate with useful and interesting info. Good night. :)

[Pork Rind]

I guess you've done much more exhaustive research...

Ha. "Exhaustive"