FW: EMBARGOED Release: First empirical census cuts SA free-roaming cheetah estimates by 70%, supporting Endangered status
Elma Marais
Dear SAWMA community,
Please find attached and below a press release from Lifetree Marketing on a four-year empirical study conducted along South Africa’s northern borders which has revealed an alarming, rigorous downward correction of the country’s free-roaming cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) population. According to the study, “The Free-Roaming Cheetah Census (FRCC) indicates that previous baseline estimates were overstated by approximately 70%. The newly verified data establishes a scientific framework for the reclassification of South Africa’s national wild cheetah population from Vulnerable to Endangered status on the South African Red List.”
The Project Coordinator and Co-Author Marna Smit (Ashia Cheetah Conservation) and research partners are available for technical interviews and further commentary regarding the study's methodologies and policy implications. Contact details are available in the attached document.
Feel free to share with your networks.
Kind regards,
Elma
Elma Marais
Southern African Wildlife Management Association / African Journal of Wildlife Research
Ph: +27 713523226
Email: off...@sawma.co.za
Website: www.sawma.co.za
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FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
EMBARGOED UNTIL: Wednesday
3 June 2026 @10h00 SAST
EMPIRICAL CENSUS REVEALS CRITICAL STATUS OF
SOUTH AFRICA’S FREE-ROAMING CHEETAH POPULATION; DATA DEMANDS ENDANGERED RECLASSIFICATION
CAPE TOWN, SOUTH AFRICA — A comprehensive, four-year empirical study conducted along South Africa’s northern borders has revealed an alarming, rigorous downward correction of the country’s free-roaming cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) population. Initiated to resolve critical knowledge gaps in national conservation policy—where current framework documents explicitly state that "no reliable estimates for the wild population are present"—the Free-Roaming Cheetah Census (FRCC) indicates that previous baseline estimates were overstated by approximately 70%. The newly verified data establishes a scientific framework for the reclassification of South Africa’s national wild cheetah population from Vulnerable to Endangered status on the South African Red List.
Various census methods of this longitudinal study, which ran from October 2022 through 2026, were executed across an expansive research grid encompassing ~99,800 km² within the Northern Cape, North West, and Limpopo provinces. To execute systematic camera-trapping within this vast study area, researchers from Ashia Cheetah Conservation, the Cheetah Outreach Trust, and the University of Groningen deducted fence-protected reserves, heavily populated zones, national parks, and areas lacking historical sightings from the official 130,000 km² IUCN range. This left an accessible, farming and ecotourism landscape of ~73,200 km² for camera installation.
Over the 3.5-year of field work, close to 400 cameras collected more than 5.2 million high-resolution images for individual identification. Analysis of this vast dataset yielded a critically low absolute count of just 83 mature adults (individuals older than 24 months) and 36 cubs or subadults identified across the entire free-roaming census range.
Critical Population Metrics and Structural Vulnerabilities
The census data exposes severe demographic, structural, and ecological vulnerabilities that threaten the localised viability of the species: (change order as discussed)
· Anthropogenic Fragmentation: High human population densities along the corridor between Mahikeng (South Africa) and Gaborone (Botswana), combined with differing land use and impermeable fencing types, act as an artificial barrier that physically touches and bisects the range. It is no longer valid to consider South Africa’s free-roaming cheetahs as a single, fully connected population.
· High Mortality Rates - Critical Low Population: A total of 17 mature adults—representing 20% of the known adult census cohort—died before the conclusion of the census period. The loss of this many reproductively viable adults heavily slows recovery and makes population growth profoundly challenging.
· Coordinated Action Needed: The report also highlights the need for coordinated action across the different cheetah populations in South Africa, including free-roaming cheetah, the semi-protected populations in Kruger NP and Kgalagadi TP, the metapopulation in fenced reserves and the captive population. A more connected national, and eventually southern African regional approach will be essential if South Africa is to maintain viable free-roaming cheetah populations into the future.
Complex Genetic Lag and Isolation Risks
To assess the long-term evolutionary impacts of this landscape fragmentation, the research team conducted DNA sequencing of blood and scat samples, coupled with satellite telemetry tracking. The analysis, processed by Unistel Medical Laboratory, Jonah Ventures (USA), and the University of California Davis Veterinary Genetics Laboratory, indicates that while the two primary regions have historically experienced genetic connection, movement between them is now increasingly restricted.
Significant genetic differences in long-living mammals often become detectable only after 5 to 15 generations, known as multi-generational "genetic lag". Given a cheetah generation time of 4 to 6 years, measurable genetic structuring lags behind landscape fragmentation by several decades. Consequently, while full genetic separation has not yet occurred, the conditions are actively in place for severe inbreeding and isolation to accelerate if connectivity declines further and the population remains below 100 mature individuals. This presents a critical, time-sensitive conservation opportunity: if landscape connectivity can be maintained or improved, genetic exchange can support population resilience.
Mismatches Between Perception and Objective Evidence
The FRCC successfully addressed historical socio-ecological biases by pairing objective field data with 299 farmer and landowner questionnaires regarding perceived predator presence and conflict. While cheetahs moving across private farmlands have long served as a primary scapegoat for small-sized livestock losses, the scientific evidence debunked this perception. No livestock (cattle, goats, sheep, or chickens) was found in any of the analysed scat samples, highlighting a severe mismatch between perceived conflict and empirical dietary reality. Informed knowledge about overestimated cheetah presenceand high & low tolerance areas call for urgent updates to the IUCN range map of suitable habitat in future.
Legislative Hurdles and Policy Misalignment
The report highlights a critical failure in the legal protection framework. Although cheetahs are legally protected under South African law, the study notes that to date, no known illegal hunting or killing of a cheetah has resulted in a successful prosecution. This significant gap between legislation and enforcement leaves conservationists functionally powerless to safeguard a population under severe mortality stress.
"This study underscores the absolute scientific necessity of rigorous, empirical baseline data over regionally isolated estimates that have obscured the unfortunate true trajectory of the species," said Marna Smit, project coordinator at Ashia Cheetah Conservation. "With South Africa thought to hold 10% of the wild global population, these metrics mean regional and global estimates must be significantly adjusted downwards. If the ongoing South African Biodiversity Management Plan is to successfully help this endangered species, policy levers must pivot to reflect these verified metrics, secure Endangered status of SA’s cheetah, and establish a coordinated approach linking our free-roaming, semi-protected, metapopulation, and captive cohorts."
Methodology and Institutional Partnerships
The FRCC represents an intensive logistical and financial investment totaling USD 750,000 and accumulating roughly 13 person-years of field and analyses work (154 months; 4,692 days), during which field teams drove over 400,000 kilometers in remote terrains.
The project was structured as a cross-disciplinary alliance:
· Ashia Cheetah Conservation (ACC): Served as the primary funder and project coordinator, carrying over 60% of total project expenses, providing 70% of the camera traps, 75% of the GPS collars, and continuous in-field staff.
· Cheetah Outreach Trust (COT): Led field operations, focusing on safe capture, GPS collaring, telemetry tracking, camera trapping, and active human-wildlife conflict mitigation.
· University of Groningen (RUG): Executed data analytics and spatial modeling via a dedicated PhD research framework, with auxiliary travel and equipment funding sourced from the Dr. D.L. Dobberke Foundation and the LNVH Advancing Women in Biology Fund.
The final report and its technical appendices have been submitted to provincial environmental authorities, national conservation bodies, and regional IUCN officials.
- ENDS –
Media Assets & Data Appendices
Project Media Repository:
The media repository contains a comprehensive suite of high-resolution visual assets documenting the Free-Roaming Cheetah Census (FRCC). A detailed caption list is provided at the bottom of this document
https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1ognZKiz8S5dvoNO1IihG2NR7M3NW2en4?usp=sharing
About Ashia Cheetah Conservation (ACC)
Ashia Cheetah Conservation is a non-profit conservation organisation founded to help prevent the further decline of wild cheetah populations. Genetic reinforcement through release, relocation, (re)introduction, as well as urgent, impromptu cheetah rescue operations take place in coordination with local and international conservation authorities. To ensure longevity of this project and in partnerships with relevant scientific bodies, Ashia is initiating, funding, and coordinating applicable research projects in order to contribute significantly to the conservation and genetic integrity as well as the growth and range expansion of the cheetah population in Africa.
For more information on Ashia Cheetah Conservation visit
@Ashiacheetahconservation
ashia_cheetah_conservation
Contact: marna...@ashia.co.za
About Cheetah Outreach Trust (COT)
Cheetah Outreach Trust is a non-profit organisation established in 2005 with the primary goal of conserving and promoting farmer-predator co-existence on farmland areas in South Africa. COT substantially contributes to reducing the human-predator conflict through camera trapping, collaring, research and education projects. The Trust’s Livestock Guardian Dog (LGD) Project places and monitors Anatolian livestock guardian dogs on farms where a natural distribution of wild cheetah and other predators still occurs.
For more information on Cheetah Outreach Trust visit
https://cheetahoutreachtrust.co.za
@cheetahoutreachtrust
Contact: de...@cheetahoutreachtrust.co.za
Captions for All Images/Maps/Logos (Annexes 2.-11.) Included
in Media Link:
2. Camera Trap Images (jpg)
1 CT Single adult male at dusk at sentinel site, North West Province
3 CT Single cheetah early morning at sentinel site, second camera in the background, North West Province
6 CT Single adult cheetah investigating smells at a sentinel site, North West Province
8 CT Single adult cheetah scent-marking a tree to attract possible mates, Limpopo Province
9 CT Adult male of a coalition of two investigating cheetah scent-marking on a tree, Northern Cape Province
11 CT Single adult male scent-marking a tree to attract potential mates, Limpopo Province
12 CT Coalition of four male cheetah scent-marking and investigating sentinel site, second camera visible on the left in the background, Limpopo Province
13 CT Cheetah mother with a rare litter of 7 cubs at sentinel site, North West Province
17 CT Young cheetah with their mother at a sentinel site, North West Province
18 CT Three young cheetah with their mother at a sentinel site, North West Province
20 CT Curious livestock watching cheetah investigating scent-marks left on a tree also known as "cheetah communication hub"
24 CT Sub-adult single cheetah investigating sentinel site, second camera on the left, North West Province
3. Trap Cages / Collaring / Relocations (jpg)
1 Field Louis Heynes (ACC field team) preparing a temporary 'fence' of branches to guide cheetah to a trap cage either for collaring purposes or for relocation to safe free-roaming habitat
3 Field 'Fence' of branches to guide cheetah to a temporary trap cage either for collaring purposes or for relocation to safe free-roaming habitat
4 Field Veterinarian Dr Ean van der Berg with Leslie Slabbert (ACC field team) during vet work in the field, Limpopo Province
5 Field Cheetah Outreach Trust loading a free-roaming cheetah with local helping hands for relocation to a safe habitat
9 Release Deon Cilliers (COT) taking biological samples and measurements of a free-roaming female cheetah in Limpopo Province
10 Release Deon Cilliers (COT) loading a free-roaming cheetah for relocation and release to a safe area within the free-roaming range in Limpopo Province
17 Field Capturing/collaring and taking biological measurements and samples of a free-roaming cheetah, present COT, ACC and Old Chapel Vet Clinic members
23 CT Single adult cheetah investigating a sentinel site with a still deactivated (closed) trap cage in the background - preparation for capture/collaring in Limpopo Province
25 CT Adult cheetah about to enter a capture cage in Limpopo Province - capture either intended for collaring or for relocation to a safe free-roaming area
30 Field Solar powered Spoor Track collar used among various collar models during the census to gather cheetah movement data
Paw Close-up of a cheetah paw during veterinarian work in the field
4. Releases back onto free-roaming habitat after capture for collaring or relocation(jpg)
1 Release Free-roaming female that was found trapped on fenced private property - after capture and collaring by COT she was released back into safe free-roaming habitat in Limpopo province
3 Release Free-roaming female collared with GPS collar by COT and released back onto free-roaming habitat in Limpopo province
5 Release Free-roaming female collared with GPS collar by COT and released back onto free-roaming habitat in Limpopo province
6 Release Free-roaming female collared with GPS collar by COT and released back onto free-roaming habitat in Limpopo province
8 Release A free-roaming cheetah mother with her two sub-adult daughters captured/collared and released onto safe free-roaming habitat in Limpopo Province, Deon Cilliers (Conservation Manager, Cheetah Outreach Trust) on the right
5. Mortalities during census period (jpg)
1 Mortalities Intentionally cut and buried AWT GPS collar, located in high human-wildlife conflict area near the carcass of a shot free-roaming cheetah, Limpopo Province
2 Mortalities Remains of a free-roaming cheetah that was caught in a foot snare in North West Province
3 Mortalities Wildebeest carcass potentially killed by a predator; DNA analysis confirmed zero livestock in cheetah scat found during census period
4 Mortalities Free-roaming cheetah caught in a foot snare
5 Mortalities Remains of a collared free-roaming cheetah that was caught in a foot snare in North West Province
6 Mortalities Seriously injured free-roaming cheetah caught in a foot snare on the way to wildlife veterinarian Dr Peter Caldwell (Old Chapel Vet Clinic, Pretoria)
6. Impermeable Game Fencing images (jpg)
1 Landscape Game fences dividing free-roaming habitat leading to fragmentation,Limpopo Province
10 CT Impermeable game fencing impeding free cheetah movement and leading to habitat fragmentation and isolated populations
7. Field Team Images (jpg)
7 Field Field team members Nynke Wemer (PhD student RUG) and Kagiso Masinge(ACC) setting up camera-traps, North West Province
8 Field Kagiso Masinge of the ACC field team on its way in North West Province
9 Field Kagiso Masinge (ACC field team) investigating potential sites for camera trapping, North West Province
12 Field Louis Heyns (ACC field team) and scat dog Benji finding cheetah scat at a termite mount while investigating potential sites for camera trapping
13 Field Scat dog Benji on the search for scat with Louis Heynes (ACC field team), Limpopo Province
15 Field Louis Heynes (ACC field team) with scat dog Benji searching for potential sentinel / camera trapping sites, the “communication hubs” for cheetah
16 Field Louis Heyns (ACC field team) taking a reflective moment in the field with his always attentive scat dog Benji, Limpopo Province
19 Field Louis Heynes (ACC field team) securing a trail camera to a fence post, Limpopo Province
20 Field Field team member Nynke Wemer (PhD student RUG) downloading SD card images in the field, North West Province
23 Field ACC field team member Louis Heyns securing the safety box for a camera trap, Limpopo Province
28 Field Field team members Nynke Wemer (PhD student University of Groningen)with Dylan Dobbins (Cheetah Outreach Trust) conducting questionnaires with farmers and landowners, Limpopo Province
29 Field PhD student Nynke Wemer (RUG, NL) with a site activation board after final set up of a camera site, North West Province
31 Field One of the 389 solar powered trail cameras used to capture 5.2 million images across the census area over 3.5 years
8. Landscape Drone Shots showing fencelines across cheetah habitat (jpg)
2 Landscape Cheetah habitat interspersed with game fencing leading to range fragmentation and isolated populations
3 Landscape Cheetah habitat interspersed with game fencing leading to range fragmentation and isolated populations
4 Landscape Cheetah habitat interspersed with game fencing leading to range fragmentation and isolated populations
5 Landscape Suitable cheetah habitat blocked by game fencing on both sides of the road impeding free cheetah movements
9. COT Dog Program Images (jpg)
2 COT Anatolian guard dog placed by COT on a farm to protect small livestock
3 COT Anatolian guard dog placed by COT on a farm to protect small livestock
4 COT Anatolian guard dog placed by COT on a farm to protect small livestock
5 COT Deon Cilliers / COT visiting a breeding center for guard dogs funded by COT
Map Cheetah Outreach Trust Placements of Anatolian Guard Dogs in SA
10. Most Relevant Maps FRCC Report
1 Map Population density creating the Mahikeng-to-Gaborone corridor with confirmed cheetah presence in the increasingly isolated populations in Region 1 and Region 2
2 Map Degree of confirmed cheetah presence across Region 1 and Region 2 of the census area.
3 Map Study area: Free-roaming cheetah range fragmented in Region 1 and Region 2 due to population density along the Mahikeng-to-Gaborone corridor as well as impermeable game fencing
11. Logos FRCC Partners
Ashia Cheetah Conservation (ACC)
Cheetah Outreach Trust (COT)
University of Groningen, NL (RUG)
Free-roaming Cheetah Census (FRCC)
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