TS 14 now Hurricane Michael headed to FL coast tomorrow

[SATERN International SSB Group]

Greetings and Salutations:

 

SATERN Update:

 

Hurricane Michael:  National SATERN Liaison and Southern Territory SATERN Coordinator Bill Feist (WB8BZH), has announced that the Southern Territory SATERN SSB Net will be activated on 7.265 MHz beginning Wednesday, 10 October 2018 at 0800 (Central).  The Net will continue to operate until 2000 / 8:00 PM CT that day.  If required, the Net will resume operations on Thursday, 11 October 2018.

 

[See attached image]

Frequent announcements will be made during the regular Training / Fellowship Net for the International SATERN SSB Net on 14.268 MHz to encourage SATERN volunteers and other Amateur Radio operators that can hear Net Control WB5ALM in Jackson, MS, to help as Net Control and Net Relay Stations.  Those interested should contact Net Control on-the-air or by email to the Net Manager, Ken Standard (AD5XJ) at AD...@ARRL.net.  Stations in the Florida panhandle, northern Florida peninsual, southeastern Alabama and southern Georgia are especially requested to participate and provide on-scene reports to Net Control.

 

This decision was made based on:

 

1. Hurricane Michael meets the criteria for SATERN activation of a landfalling major (category 3, 4 or 5) hurricane within that Net’s coverage area.

 

1. Discussion with the Net Managers for the Southern Territory and International SATERN Nets.

 

The purpose of the Net activation is to:

 

1.    Handle Emergency, Priority and Health & Welfare messages from the impacted areas.

 

2.    Provide ground-truth information provided by amateur radio stations and other sources in the impacted areas to be forwarded to Salvation Army leadership.

 

3.    Support the Southern Territory and the impacted Divisions and local Salvation Army units as requested.

 

All questions about this Net activation should be addressed to both myself and the Net Manager, Ken Standard (AD5XJ) at AD...@ARRL.net.

 

Hurricane Sergio:  There are still no plans to activate the International SATERN SSB Net for Hurricane Sergio which is expected to make landfall as a Tropical Storm on the Baja Peninusala. It will be up to the Western Territory SATERN Coordinator to determine whether it is appropriate to activate the Western Territory SATERN Net.

 

For both storms, it is possible that local VHF / UHF SATERN Nets might be activated to support their local Salvation Army units in response to any wind or flood damage caused by these two storms.

 

Situation Report:

 

Attached to this email is the 10:00 PM (Monday, 08 October 2018) slide briefing from NWS-Mobile / Pensacola Tropical Weather Briefing for Hurricane Michael.  There is not a lot of change between the 5:00 PM and 10:00 PM briefings.

 

I have also attached the 12:00 AM (Midnight, Tuesday, 09 October 2018) Tropical Weather Briefing slides from NWS-Birmingham.  The email that came with that slide deck is as follows:

 

“Hurricane Michael is currently a Category 1 and is forecast make landfall as a Category 3 in the Florida Panhandle on Wednesday. The latest advisory has shifted the forecast track back to the east, further away from our forecast area. Concern has not changed for our southeastern counties due to this most recent advisory. Any additional westward shifts could result in a significant impact to our southeastern counties, and a Tropical Storm Watch could become necessary. Currently we expect rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts and wind gusts of 30-45 mph, mainly along and south of Interstate 85 on Wednesday into Wednesday night.” 

 

Immediately below my signature block I have attached the 4:00 AM graphics from the National Hurricane Center for Hurricane Michael.which is currently a category 1 hurricane located just north of Cuba and moving NNW at 12 mph with sustained winds of 90 mph.  There are also spaghetti models for track and wind intensity.

 

Here are the important points from the National Hurricane Center’s text discussions and forecasts:

 

1. Michael’s strengthening has paused.
2. The eyewall has become less organized, possibly due to some dry air and shear in Michael’s environment.
3. The convective banding, however, is becoming more defined and it is possible that intensification has resumed which is expected..
4. Hurricane Michael is still expected to make landfall as a category 3 hurricane in the Florida panhandle at about 1:00 PM on Wednesday and then cross the southeastern United States Wednesday night and Thursday, exiting into the Atlantic Ocean sometime late Thursday night or early Friday morning.
5. Michael will weaken significantly shortly after landfall but then strengthen again once it moves back out into the Atlantic Ocean some thre to 4 days after landfall.
6. Life threatening storm surge inundation is expected along portions of the Florida panhandle and Big Bend / Nature Coast.
7. A Hurricane Warning has been issued for portions of the Florida Gulf Coast with a strong likelihood of life-threatening, damaging winds associated with the core of Hurricane Michael.
8. Damaging winds will also extend inland across portions of the Florida panhandle, southern Georgia and southeast Alabama (Dothan, for example) as Hurricane Michael moves inland.
9. Rainfall amount predictions are as follows:
   1. Florida panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama and southern Georgia will experience 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches.  This could lead to life-threatening flash floods.
   2. Eastern Georgia, the Carolinas and southern Georgia:  3 to 6 inches.
   3. Florida Peninsula, eastern mid-Atlantic, southern New England coastline:  1 to 3 inches.
   4. However, the overall area predicted to be covered by the heaviest rains has decreased while the area of greatest threat for flash flooding has increased according to the latest graphics.
10. The threat for tornadoes will increase late tonight into Wednesday over parts of the Florida panhandle, northern Florlida Peninsula and southern Georgia.

 

Governor Kay Ivey has issued a State of Emergency for Alabama.  The Alabama State EOC is activating to a Level II beginning today , Tuesday, 09 October 2018, at 0700.  Tabatha Glassburn has agreed to staff our desk.  I have already gotten Suzzette Bogan’s approval for this.  Suzzette also recommended Cynthia Smith (Walker County) as a backup or a second person if needed.

 

Louisiana still has a State of Emergency in effect, but they have stood down the conference calls UNLESS the storm continues to track westward.  It is unlikely, though, that they will activate their EOC beyond a Crisis Action Team – if that much.

 

Finally, it should be noted that Tropical Depression 15 has formed in the eastern Atlantic.  At this time, like long-lasting Hurricane Leslie, TD 15 does not appear to pose any threat to land.

 

Mississippi has not declared a State of Emergency and there are no current plans to activate the State EOC as they believe the storm is still tracking far enough to the East.

 

Partner Updates:

 

The Amateur Radio Station at the National Hurricane Center, WX4NHC, will be activated on Wednesday, 10 October 2018 at 0900 (Eastern) and will continue to operate until landfall at approximately 2300 (Eastern) that same day.  WX4NHC will be monitoring the Hurricane Watch Net (HWN) on both 14.325 MHz and 7.268 MHz.  It will also be monitoring the VoIP Hurricane Net on EchoLink Conference WX-Talk, note 7203 or IRLP 9219.  Operational contact information can be found online at the WX4NHC wetsite. 

 

The VoIP Hurricane Net will likely activate sometime between 0400 and 0500 ET on Wednesday, 10 October 2018.

 

The Hurricane Watch Net tentatively plans to activate on Tuesday, 09 October 2018 at 1700 (Eastern) / 5:00 PM (Eastern) / 2100 UTC on both 14.325 MHz and 7.268 MHz.  HWN will operate on 14.325 for as long as propagation allows and will suspend operations on 7.268 MHz at 2300 (Eastern) / 11:00 PM (Eastern) / 0300 UTC.  Net operations will resume Wednesday morning at 0830 (Eastern) / 8:30 AM Eastern / 1230 UTC (using both 14.325 MHz and 7.268 MHz) or as soon as the Waterway Net concludes their operations.  Once activated on Wednesday, they will remain in operation until further notice.  Additional information can be found at www.hwn.org.

Conclusion:

 

This and additional information is available on SATERN.org. 

 

As always, if you have any questions or concerns, please feel free to contact me.